Out of the number of applicants applying every year, nearly the same ones that drew last year are applying again this year. That same base will never go away. The others are the ones that draw a tag every few years and then the balance are the ones that discovered for the first time they can apply and pull a tag on their first try.
Some of my choices were avg while others were swinging for the fence. I didn't get the successful email last year for off range oryx until after the results had been posted.
mrelite's Link
I watched this video and it only bothered me. I would like to see a yearly graph consisting of when each hunt code was filled in relation to the sequence numbers, for example, unit16D elk archery 1st hunt was dispersed by application sequence number 27,000. If you could see a 5 year window you could somewhat figure the odds of drawing a sequence number that might get you a tag. As it is no one has a clue because the sequence odds are unknown to draw any particular tag and then they are coupled with dispersing 1st, 2nd and 3rd choice at the same time.
The G&F says that odds don't change when they do the draw in different ways, since it's a public issue I'd like them to show everyone why they use this draw system and back it up by written facts, for them just to say the draw doesn't change when done in different ways isn't good enough, we should get to see some actual stats that back up their claim. I think they do the draw this way because its much easier, not better. Lol if I draw a tag I'll be happy but I just can't like doing the draw this way, it's like gambling without knowing the actual odds of possible success, I'd like to know exactly how horrible my draw odds are.
Each hunt code and each choice should have its own draw so a person can easily see the odds of drawing the hunt they are applying for.
So, to make the math easy:
300,000 applications with 60,000 applications for elk. Your application has a 60,000/300,000 or a 20% chance of it being looked at. Then out of 60,000 applications with 20,000 permits available, you would have a 33% chance that your application will be looked at. Once you've jumped over the first two hurdles, now you're finally competing with the others for you hunt code choices. If the first choice has 100 permits and there is a total of 1,000, 550, and 450 first/second/third choice applicants, you would realistically have a 100/2000 or 5% chance of pulling that permit. Each choice acts as its own application because of how the selection takes place once an application is chosen.
The issue is that the number changes from year to year among applicants and how they arrange them as their first/second/third choice. One year may have more piling in to a particular hunt code, the following year even more and maybe less.
The only thing the draw odds report shows you is how the permits are allocated from year to year based on how many applied for each choice and then how many permits were awarded by choice ranking all dependent on where the application sat after the shuffle in the first place. The real "odds" are that you have either a good, medium, or poor chance of getting anyone permit.
LOL I think the real odds are poor, horrible or dismal, but even so, someone always gets lucky!
But in reality, it could be 5 deer and 5 elk to every 1 of the others.
If your elk application had hunt codes for the Valles Caldera 2nd archery, muzzleloader, and 1st rifle and your application was somewhere in the middle, chances are that all permits will have been dispersed by the time it got to yours. If your choices were 1st and 2nd archery Unit 2 and a Unit 2 Dec cow elk, you might have a chance. So, the hunts with the highest number of choices selected fill up the quickest and the ones with the lower numbers don't. But, if your application is 299,999 out of 300,000 - better luck next year.
This is why you cannot calculate the odds, no matter what GoHunt and others tell you...
I pretty much said the same thing to the GoHunt youtube guy, his response was this;
When your application is drawn/considered is the biggest factor, but your choices do matter and some hunts just have better odds of drawing based on how many people apply for them and at what choice they choose those hunts. Our odds are calculated by obtaining the draw data, with all applicants choices and we cycle the draw as the state would thousands of times to generate an odd for each hunt. Certainly those are not predictable because applicants do change the hunts they apply for. We do offer odds for each hunt for the past 5 years so that members can further evaluate potential trends. I see your point, but odds and the hunts your choose to apply for do indeed matter.
I agree that the hunts you choose do matter but it seems to me that the odds they are coming up with are their own and not what it is in reality, they could be close or they could be way off. I assume the information they are working with is just the reports the G&F have on their sight and not including an actual breakdown of when hunts are fully dispersed in relation to sequence numbering.
The problem with this is that the applications are not shuffled thousands of times before the draw. It happens once. Because of this, and the alteration of how many people put in for a choice and the order in which they place those choices in any given year, normalizing an outcome is a forced condition to satisfy a random biased trend passing it off as "predictability". A wrench is also thrown in when people weapon hop every year where some years they do all archery an others all rifle or muzzy or a combo of any three.
The only reason the order in which you place your choices matter is the likelihood a hunt code will be fully dispersed based on how many select that as a choice with how many permits are available. The fewer number of permits, the quicker it will be fully dispersed. You can take the draw results for each hunt code and run a 5 year avg to give you an idea, but it's only a trend your modeling for that hunt code against its selection as a 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice.
So the proper strategies are: 1) swing for the fences for all three choices hoping your app is near the top, 2) swing for the fences on the 1st choice and choose mediocre choices for the other two, 3) mediocre choices for all three, 4) whatever floats your boat.
Smarba talked about the covid generation going back to the basement, totally agree wish they would. I did a lot of winter camping this year and the beer cans and trash being left behind is 10 times worse than it ever used to be.
15 years for an antelope tag is bad for sure, my last NM antelope tag was in 1988, yep, 1988. I got my first antelope with my bow last August in Colorado, I should have been going there or Wyoming for all these years.
HDE, Love the strategies, I am still laughing at strategy #4
I've come to realize its a trade off. I'll probably never hunt barbary sheep, Oryx, and possibly elk ever again. The quality of trout fishing here will be replaced with far more water and opportunity for other species, and limited fly-fishing and trout. No doubt there will be outdoors things here I will miss, but I'll be making different outdoor memories in my new home.
Good luck on the draw guys.
Basically I do what HDE says to look at the draw odds, Take an archery elk hunt with 200 tags and 765 residents putting in for first choice, so theoretically you have a 21.9% chance of drawing it, (168/765 X 100). Now 123 out of 765 actually drew it as a first choice so it was a 16% chance of drawing it first choice. I used 168 to get rid of the 16% NR and outfitter tags.
Now 844 residents put it down as a second choice: 39 drew it so you have a 4.6% (39/844 X 100). Only 6 tags were left for the third choice. Not good odds but somebody had to pull those 6 tags.
The other problem with hunting apps that do the draw odds for you is they just look at the math. If you look at the units, some have small herds with bad success odds to harvest an animal. So a crappy unit to hunt has 10-15 residents putting it as a first choice, there is a reason for that. I have been on many deer hunts in those units when the elk hunters who drew it were very disappointed without seeing or hearing and elk.
Applicant A had it as their 3rd choice, Applicant B had it as their 2nd choice, Applicant C had it as their 1st choice but Applicant B was looked at before the other two and B's 1st choice was already full.
If there were 738 1st choice, 429 2nd, and 263 3rd the total interest for that hunt code is really 1430 "applicants" because it doesn't matter where those choices landed on their application. It matters what else they put in for, which we don't know and neither does something like GoHunt.
I drew a Jan off-range last year (2023 this year was the hunt month) which was my first choice. Looking at all the other choices for that hunt code after the draw results were posted, my application had to be near the top as there was a very large number as 1st, 2nd, and 3rd choice applicants for that hunt.
Back in the day they used to print what number you were among all the tag holders when you drew. The only thing the report would show is what the distribution was after the draw which wouldn't be an indicator for proceeding years.
In another couple of weeks though the draw results will be irrelevant to me. Either because I didn't draw, or, I drew and know when and where I'll be going. More importantly though, in another couple of weeks, the crappie bite will start and smallmouth will begin staging for their early June spawn :^)
The only thing I wonder about is this 300,000 hunters and 60,000 permits and where that comes from. Maybe it is the total draw for all species. I am really only interested in the elk draw for residents. From what I see on the draw results is 67,703 first choice residents with 10,785 licenses drawn. Second choice 65656 with 5111 licenses drawn, Third choice 62,004 with 3923 drawn. You can also break it down into hunt totals but it is still not over 100,000 hunters applying for 22,371 tags.
Like I said I am just interested in the elk draw as I always draw a deer tag.
I hope we all get a tag of some kind, best of luck!!
