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Market tumbles
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Contributors to this thread:
Jim in Ohio 16-Oct-14
Jim in Ohio 16-Oct-14
Jim in Ohio 16-Oct-14
Bowfreak 16-Oct-14
MT in MO 16-Oct-14
Owl 16-Oct-14
sundowner 16-Oct-14
Beendare 16-Oct-14
gadan 16-Oct-14
Coyote 65 16-Oct-14
TD 16-Oct-14
sundowner 16-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 16-Oct-14
sundowner 18-Oct-14
HA/KS 18-Oct-14
spudwrench4rp 18-Oct-14
one shot 18-Oct-14
sundowner 18-Oct-14
sundowner 18-Oct-14
Beendare 18-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 31-Oct-14
HA/KS 31-Oct-14
BlueDog 31-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 31-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 31-Oct-14
BlueDog 31-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 31-Oct-14
BlueDog 31-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 31-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 31-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 31-Oct-14
NvaGvUp 31-Oct-14
From: Jim in Ohio
16-Oct-14
Reasons for Dip

1. Ebola

2. Isis

3.Possibility of interest rate increase.

4. 17 trillion National Debt

5. Failure to guard the border.

6. Incompetent President and his appointees.

From: Jim in Ohio
16-Oct-14
Cheap gasoline would help. $2.00 gasoline would give a lot of small businesses a much bigger profit that they would pay more income tax and have more profit to spend.

From: Jim in Ohio
16-Oct-14
Of course cheap gasoline would also give the ordinary consumer more money to spend also.

From: Bowfreak
16-Oct-14
It amazes me that some of the financial experts are "alarmed" at the drop in oil prices. They say it could have a negative impact on the economy....that oil and natural gas is booming. BUT and it is a big BUT everyone else benefits from cheap energy. My wife and I paid $175-%225 each month when we were married about 11 years ago. That lasted a couple of years and now we pay $800. We drive less and don't just arbitrarily burn gas. What could the average american family do with an extra $400-$500 a month? The answer is....the stuff they used to do. Maybe travel, maybe fish more, maybe eat out, maybe go to movies, maybe buy a new car. I am not an economist but think of the extra expendable income for the average family. This is not even counting everything else that would be cheaper due to lower fuel. It is not rocket surgery that's for sure.

From: MT in MO
16-Oct-14
The reason 'they' think cheap oil will hurt the economy is because if the price of oil goes below production costs, then the new oil boom in the USA could slow down due to shutdowns, layoffs and some producers who are currently working on thin margins to go out of business.

I've heard numbers of anywhere from $50-$80 a barrel as the break even for USA shale oil producers.

Some even say that in addition to there being additional oil output via the USA production, the OPEC countries are not restricting supply like they normally do when prices get cheap, but are increasing supply, particularly Saudi Arabia.

Why? Maybe it is an attempt to protect market share, maybe it is an attempt to drive prices down far enough that the USA producers quit producing...There's more to it than meets the eye for sure...

From: Owl
16-Oct-14
A few things we need for stable expansion: A balanced budget plan, a few well placed dictators in the ME and a robust domestic energy policy. A balanced budget amendment and lower corporate tax rates would lock it in.

From: sundowner
16-Oct-14
So, Spike, for whom should folks vote?

A Libertarian or Independent vote would be a vote for a guaranteed loser.

Would you rather not see Republicans gain a Senate majority in January?

From: Beendare
16-Oct-14
I know we hear all of the issues listed by Jim as the reason but IMO, the real reason;

The existing leverage is coming out of the market

Fed has created an atmosphere where they are propping up mkts and as usual folks are leveraged into it

From: gadan
16-Oct-14
Spike, I don't agree at all. Repubs have NEVER(in recent history) had all three branches of govt and when they had 2, they tried to get balanced budget but got blocked by whoever it was in the branch they didn't occupy.

Owl, You are right on!

From: Coyote 65
16-Oct-14
M6y wife recently retired as an oil and gas accountant for an independent oil producer for them to make money oil has to be above $60 per barrel. Less for old existing fields, more for newer fields. Majors need more as they are nowhere as efficient as the independents.

Terry

From: TD
16-Oct-14
The insiders have been playing with essentially zero interest money. The fed has hinted they are going to start weaning the piglets off it. No more free freshly printed money to play with. That's a big one.

Another reason the market was essentially over valued was with zero interest rates there were very few other investments that weren't guaranteed to lose money to inflation. Very few places to park money that had a chance of making any. Real estate was another.

I wonder what this does to the real estate market as well, if folks are going to sell stocks and move into more of it.... or is that investment as dependent on the flow of free money as the markets are.

Last month two more foreclosures sold down the street from us. Property values took yet another BIG instant hit.

From: sundowner
16-Oct-14
Again,

Spike, Would you rather not see Republicans gain a Senate majority in January?

From: NvaGvUp
16-Oct-14
"The market tumbles."

Yeah, it does that.

That's the price you pay for getting double digit returns, although few do because they let their emotions override their intellect and bail out at or near the bottom EVERY SINGLE TIME!

"You get in, you stay in, and everything will be alright." ......... Nick Murray

"The market goes down, but it doesn't stay down, so it doesn't matter." ...... Nick Murray

From: sundowner
18-Oct-14
Spike,

Why the reluctance to answer the question?

Like you, many here are disappointed with the Republican party. But would you prefer that Dems retain their Senate majority?

McConnell is no prize, but do you prefer that Reid continue his power trip?

Would it be better or worse to have a Republican as Chairman of the Judiciary Committee when Obama nominates Eric Holder (or worse) to the Supreme Court?

Would it be better or worse to stop, or at least slow the Obama agenda?

Would you prefer a Dem or Rep Senate majority? You're going to get one or the other.

From: HA/KS
18-Oct-14
"Would it be better or worse to have a Republican as Chairman of the Judiciary Committee when Obama nominates Eric Holder (or worse) to the Supreme Court?"

Sundowner, I pretty much agree with you, but the answer to the above question is uncertain. The republicans may or may not turn down any nominee no matter how vile they would be toward the constitution. There is a long tradition of pretty much approving whoever the president nominates for any position. Spike and I do not agree on the solution, but we do agree that republicans have not done enough to stop the leftist turn of this country.

Maybe we disagree on motives. I think that republicans are still trying to play nice, follow laws and traditions that have been in place (a kinder, gentler nation). Spike (he can speak for himself) seems to put a more nefarious motive to their actions.

Unfortunately, playing nice with dems, leftists, muslim extremists will not work. How do you stop them without becoming like them?

18-Oct-14

spudwrench4rp's Link
Gaden, What do you consider recent history? in the 108th congress in 2003 and 109th in 2005 the Republican party had the majority in both the house and senate with a Republican president.

From: one shot
18-Oct-14
the dems in the senate blocked every major piece of legislation because the repubs did not have a super majority. that's why the repubs compromised on the education bill, no child left behind, which was basically ted kenedy's bill. in return the dems allowed the patriot act to be passed. the repubs will compromise but dems will not. also, the dems know how to twist things to their advantage. look at what they have turned the patriot act into.

From: sundowner
18-Oct-14
.... "the answer to the above question is uncertain. The republicans may or may not turn down any nominee no matter how vile they would be toward the constitution."

You are absolutely right, Henry, as attested by my own Rino Sen. Graham voting in favor of Sotomayor and Kegan as Supreme Court Justices.

But on the other hand, you KNOW, without a doubt what the Dems will do, and it is not good for you and me.

The Republicans have been a disappointment. They have not upheld Conservative Values, and have allowed Dems like Pelosi and Reid run rough-shod over them.

I have said publicly that I would vote for a Dem before I would vote for Graham again. Fortunately we have a Write-In candidate that will save me from the shame of voting Dem.

But the only hope of stopping the evil of the Obama agenda is for the Repugs to win a Senate majority. Retiring Reid would be another added blessing.

From: sundowner
18-Oct-14
Thanks Spike.

Once again we find ourselves on the sam page, or at least the adjacent page.....

From: Beendare
18-Oct-14
I'm in the something has to change camp. I like that the tea party is ruffling feathers with the rep party- they need to get it together or get run over.

To answer the question: I'm tired of having to choose between the least worst.

From: NvaGvUp
31-Oct-14
So much for the prediction of a monster crash and so much for the pundits who told people to "Get Out!" just two-three weeks ago.

All three major US Indices have how reached record highs as of 10:20 AM PDT.

"A fool and his money are soon parted."

From: HA/KS
31-Oct-14
A lot of optimism that republicans will restore a business friendly climate. I hope they are right!

From: BlueDog
31-Oct-14
Some stoic realism works in the market also...

"The market goes down, but it doesn't stay down, so it doesn't matter." ...... Nick Murray

kyle,

most don't want to listen to you..what do you know? Just because it's been your profession... you're supposed to tell them what they really want to hear..

(No different than me getting straightened out on combat and combat soldiers... what do I know? I get corrected and told how it REALLY is..) ;)

Doesn't change the way it is.... reality counts.

From: NvaGvUp
31-Oct-14
Dan,

"most don't want to listen to you..what do you know? Just because it's been your profession... you're supposed to tell them what they really want to hear..

Sadly, that's exactly what many in my profession do. But I choose to walk a different path. My job is to tell my clients what they need to do to get where they want to go, not what they want to hear. When the markets take a dump, fear takes over and what they want to hear is very rarely what they need to do.

From: NvaGvUp
31-Oct-14
Dan,

Then there's this:

The stock market hit bottom on March 9, 2009. The DOW was 6,547, the S&P 500 was 676 and Gold was $922. My firm closed at $5.01

At today's close, the DOW was 17,390, the S&P 500 was 2,018, and Gold was $1,172. My firm closed at $54.76.

So, on March 9, 2009, when so many were bailing out of the market and claiming the market was a death trap and a horrible place to invest, while at the same time clamoring to buy Gold, here's what's happened:

DOW, + 266%

S&P 500, + 299%

Gold, + 27%

My firm, + 1,093%

From: BlueDog
31-Oct-14
Sometimes it's better to do nothing than to regret doing something..... in all things.

Your firm has done very well for you... (bit of an understatement..)

From: NvaGvUp
31-Oct-14
Dan,

I was in the right spot at the right time. When the Great Recession hit, financial companies got destroyed in the market. Absolutely slaughtered! I'd owned very little of my firm's stock until then, as most of my career was already 'invested' in the company.

But this was too good of an opportunity to pass up. The company was sound, had good management and an excellent business model. I knew we weren't going away and knew it had been greatly oversold thanks to 'fear.' It was what Nick Murray would call, "A Buy signal from God."

Because of my divorce we had to sell the house and I had a fair amount of cash, so I loaded up on the stock @ $6.65. Needless to say, it has worked out very well.

From: BlueDog
31-Oct-14
Gadzooks kyle! Would you pass me some of that Grey Poupon? ;)

From: NvaGvUp
31-Oct-14
Dan,

LOL! You know you've got two old farts chatting when they both remember that ad.

Sorry, but I spent some the gains on a Stone sheep hunt, an elk hunt, and a Mt. goat hunt this year, not that's a bad thing. I've also donated some of it to WSF the past two years.

From: NvaGvUp
31-Oct-14
Spike,

We bought the home in early January, 2009, six weeks before the stock market turned around. So that stock had nothing to do with buying our home. It had been listed for a few months and the beginning asking price was 62% higher than what we ended up paying for it.

At the same time, when the California home sold in March of 2008, it was just before real estate prices cratered and fell through the floor. Dumb luck both times!

From: NvaGvUp
31-Oct-14
My job is to manage my clients' emotions in times of fear and in times of exuberance. So with every new client, I spend a great deal of time educating them on the greed/fear/emotions issue.

I PROMISE them the market will, at times, scare the bejabbers out of them. That's what the market does and it's simply the price of admission.

It's OK to have those emotions. It's just not OK to act on them!

From: NvaGvUp
31-Oct-14
Fauxdoc,

You're posting on the wrong thread!

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