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As in the example above epidemiological tracking of possible contacts must be initiated and again, risk of exposure/infection has been increased.

All of these people, should they test positive, will necessitate epidemiologists performing contact trackings. Think of the number of people you come in contact with on an average day; that is the potential number of new exposures and new infections.

It's called Infection Control/Prevention, not "Infection Ignore" because risks factors stated in a limited, specific context are assumed to never change.

While road surfing today and flipping chanels Someone stated that viruses like Oboli and the flu mutate with each person they incubate in and become something different (though minuet) when they are passed on to a new host. Is their any truth to this?

Wife is a virologist in the DCPAH at MSU and those in the field expect ebola to alter to become infective via aerosols. Wish I had posted it last week, but a video was on the Internet that showed that a sneeze's droplets could travel well over 10 feet.

Of course, we all have seen that math and science are hard for TBVIECians to understand in spite of participation degrees.

The Obamunist approach to dealing with ebola is solely based upon protecting his agenda to import enough illegals to become potential voters (by any means necessary).

That is what I was afraid of.

To expand on Jack's excellent (as always) posting; one reason we haven't seen Ebola mutate to attain the ability to spread via aerosols is that until now it had been confined to a region of the world with far lower-quality public health and with customs and traditions that facilitated it's spread.

Due to the poor nutrition and public health the epidemics in Africa burned out quickly (in some cases over 80% fatality rates) that the length of the epidemic was not optimal to promote the development of new traits, new mutations.

Fast forward to the present and we are now introducing a disease into a new setting, one in which survival/recovery rates will be higher and where we will provide the virus with a much greater "opportunity" to mutate.

We are and sadly, from all appearances, will continue to needlessly expose the American public to a risk whose ramifications seem to elude those making present policy.

Jack - why? Are they saying it is expected or a possibility? Or a remote possiblity?

What about ebola is different than HIV or hepatitis? We have known about them for decades (most certainly have been around a LOT longer) and their mode of transmission hasn't changed (in each of those viruses, the host lives a long time as per Mike's prediction). For that matter, what virus have we studied that changed its mode of transmission?

Great post and question. One key differentiating factor in the potential for Ebola to go airborne as opposed to the human viruses we've studied for years is the point of origin having been in primates.

One such variant of Ebola (see attached link) is still limited to primate infection and has been conclusively demonstrated to spread via the airborne route.

Does this necessarily mean it is inevitable the human infective strains may also achieve this mode of transmission? No, but the probability increases exponentially as the infected "base" broadens.

As discussed in the article Ebola is an RNA virus; the human cell copies it's DNA by transcription; DNA goes to RNA back to DNA. An RNA virus does the reverse through the enzyme reverse transcriptase. The virus inserts into a host cell's DNA and "corrupts" that reproductive mechanism to make RNA replicates of the viral RNA that eventually assemble into new complete virions that eventually fill the host cell causing it to burst and then those virions repeat the process.

Reverse transcriptase sometimes makes mistakes reading the RNA sequence with the result being that not all viruses produced in a single infected cell are genetically, and sometimes phenotypically alike. Instead, there can be a variety of subtle molecular differences, such as in their surface coat and enzymes (Key "targets" for vaccines for example).

In addition to facilitating the development of mutations (including transmission/infective properties) this also makes the evasion of vaccines or treamtents a distinct possibility. This has long been the major stumbling block to the development of an AIDS vaccine.

One other consideration regarding the lack of shift (mode of transmission) in human viruses; the infections we are all most familiar with-colds, flu, enteroviruses, hepatitis are all very efficiently transmitted by their various infective routes. From a genetic standpoint these would be considered the most efficient mutations and a shift would represent an unfavorable mutation and likley be selected out.

With regard to Ebola one branch already possesses this capacity and it is a more efficent mode of spread. While I would not make any predictions or alarm anyone I would caution against any who would dismiss the possibility out of hand completely.

FYI-I do not view your questions or posts as doing that, merely raising a very good point; thanks again for doing so.

Mike's link sums up the situation quite well, especially since it appears that the amount of infection by ebola is significantly higher than originally reported.

"...Osterholm commended groups like Doctors Without Borders but said uncoordinated efforts by individual organizations are no match for Ebola spreading swiftly through urban areas.

"This is largely dysfunctional. Nobody's in command, and nobody's in charge," he said. "It's like not having air traffic control at an airport. The planes would just crash into each other."

Therein lies the problem (augmented when President Putt-Putt creates an ebola tsar whose credentials only support dealing with this disease as a political problem for the President's open immigration invasion policy): application of political science instead of relying on professionals who actually work in the fields of virology, epidemiology and medicine. Add to that, we have seen über intellectual liberal doctors who self-diagnose and exempt themselves from mixing with the general public when they should have isolated themselves.

The larger the infection pool, the greater the opportunities for a mutation occur.

Are you sure this is not about the Oboli Administration?

"...he was cleared to travel home to Northern California, where he will “be monitored by CDC there,” according to the source..."

"Presently" asymptomatic...

I am not arguing that the virus is RNA verses DNA. I was just trying to figure out why Jack's information was that it WILL go airborne.

We also have plenty of RNA based viruses out there (some with a non-human origin) - H5N1, SARS, influenza, hepatitis C, West Nile fever, polio, and measles.

Since there hasn't been mode of transmission changes in these, why would ebola be any different?

You link seems to have the same question:

The World Health Organization says its scientists are unaware of any virus that has dramatically changed its mode of transmission. "For example, the H5N1 avian influenza virus... has probably circulated through many billions of birds for at least two decades. Its mode of transmission remains basically unchanged. Speculation that Ebola virus disease might mutate into a form that could easily spread among humans through the air is just that: speculation, unsubstantiated by any evidence."

And

"Osterholm and other experts couldn't think of another virus that has made the transition from non-airborne to airborne in humans. They say the chances are relatively small that Ebola will make that jump. But as the virus spreads, they warned, the likelihood increases."

So, the big question is by likelihood increase, do they mean from 0% to 100% or 0% to .00001%. Both are increases, but there is a vastly different level of panic needed.

Thread topic title: RE: Ebola: risk factors not static

They have come from an area where ebola exists. They have had exposure to victims of the disease.

Travelling in aircraft where the air is recirculated such that all passengers are exposed does impose a level of risk to the non-infected public.

Mingling in public during the incubation period may be of low risk, but the risk still exists. There are many immunocompromised people who would be potentially at greater risk to low level exposure than the general public. Are their rights less than Saint DW/OB?

Perhaps they should be allowed all their freedom from quarantine...but perhaps only if they, like Hester Prynne, wear a big red E around their necks ;o)

Ebola can survive on surfaces for almost TWO MONTHS:

Tests reveal certain strains survive for weeks when stored at low temperatures

Research claims certain strains of Ebola can remain on surfaces for 50 days

It survived the longest on glass surfaces stored at 4° (39°F)

Centres for Disease Control and Prevention claims Ebola typically lives on a ‘dry’ surface for hours - including doorknobs and tables

But when stored in moist conditions such in mucus, this is extended

Survival time depends on the surface, and the room temperature

Virus can be killed using household bleach and people must come into direct contact with the sample to risk infection

Ebola can survive on surfaces for almost TWO MONTHS: Tests reveal certain strains survive for weeks when stored at low temperatures

Research claims certain strains of Ebola can remain on surfaces for 50 days It survived the longest on glass surfaces stored at 4° (39°F) Centres for Disease Control and Prevention claims Ebola typically lives on a ‘dry’ surface for hours - including doorknobs and tables But when stored in moist conditions such in mucus, this is extended Survival time depends on the surface, and the room temperature Virus can be killed using household bleach and people must come into direct contact with the sample to risk infection

The number of confirmed Ebola cases passed the 10,000 mark over the weekend, despite efforts to curb its spread.

And while the disease typically dies on surfaces within hours, research has discovered it can survive for more than seven weeks under certain conditions...

Thanks again for the response; the point in bringing up the distinction between RNA and DNA viruses was merely to illustrate the greater likelihood of mutations occurring due to the manner of viral replication.

Again, to your point "greater likelihood" is a relative term that needs to be taken in context; a 0.0001% increase is an increase but I wouldn't pack up the family and head for the hills over it.

Osterholm, et al. honestly don't know what the increased potential to mutate to airborne capability is but that we should be aware of that potential and strive to minimize it. One very key factor to weigh is that as "offspring" with a mutation develop within a population the potential can increase, in some cases exponentially (particularly if the mutation leads to a more favorable variant) so again, the need to minimize risk cannot be understated.

Again, thanks for the thoughtful response.

I have no problem with any health care practitioner who wants to make an impact, especially in areas of the world where it is needed most.

I do however have a sizable problem with any doctor who fails to follow the most basic tenet of his/her profession, "first do no harm."

When you're speaking of individuals with a high likelihood of exposure and of a disease with a long incubation period and high pathogenicity it is imperative to take all precautions to contain the spread of that disease.

Of all people these doctors should, if anything, err strongly on the side of caution. Certainly going out bowling when not feeling well after being in a hot zone was at best an incredible lapse in judgement.

Altruism should never trump either common sense or infection control parameters that should be as easily recalled by these doctors as their own names.

"Blood, mucus, feces, semen. Now if you came across some strange mucus or feces out there on the or subway or anywhere else, don't eat it."

-- New York TV host Errol Lewis explaining how to avoid ebola. Note that only two of the listed substances are actually on the do-not-eat list.

(Note: The EBOLA TSAR is still AWOL)

Shorter Obama Ebola Presser

Science

Science!

Military men and women are not around any Ebola patients, so they need a 21 day quarantine overseas.

Healthcare workers are doing God’s work treating Ebola patients, so they don’t need to be quarantined.

Because, SCIENCE !

I’ll have more tomorrow after my photo op of me hugging returning healthcare workers.

SCIENCE !!!!!!!!

They've traveled vast distances though space. They've colonized countless stars systems, They've forgotten why they are here.

Can you guide the loveable but soooo...stupid sheep to Mt. Mouflon without getting them bashed, boiled, blown up, or blow dried ?

Wrangle four breeds of sheep, conquer 7 block busting worlds ( with four levels in each) and confound the pure evilness of Mr. Pear. and his evil Hench Cows!!! With shears. Gameplay you've been craving. You'll be up all night counting sheep!!!!

Guide your sheep through 7 worlds, including Technopolis ( Modern Day my words ) or jurrassic levels.

Incedible A.S. ( artificial stupidity) actually simulates the unique stupidity of sheep. with four different herds, Bo Peep, Adam, Half Pint and Motley & Shep.

6 Bonus level

Now with Obama care, all the stuff that's coming down in a America it breaks my heart. Ebola is here and the American people are staying quite. The Marshal Law quote scares me. Take our guns I don't think so. Never be caught with your pants down. Where there is a will, there is a way.

I think that the way our government thinks, Ebola is a way for population control. Only to bring more people in its not funny how this works

"... The information was contained in a 33-page report released Oct. 24 by the Defense Threat Reduction Agency, the Department of Defense’s Combat Support Agency for countering weapons of mass destruction.

The agency report states “preliminary studies indicate that Ebola is aerostable in an enclosed controlled system in the dark and can survive for long periods in different liquid media and can also be recovered from plastic and glass surfaces at low temperatures for over 3 weeks.”

The report says the government is seeking technologies for the “rapid disinfection” of Ebola, including an aerosol version of the virus.

“The technology must prove effective against viral contamination either deposited as an aerosol or heavy contaminated combined with body fluids,” reads the solicitation document.

You can view the document for yourself right here.

My bad, this woman is from Portlandia Oregon.

You might want to check on reports in both the NY Times and Washington Post (hardly right-wing rags) about her having had a fever at one point.

Couple this with the fact that she had been treating confirmed cases of Ebola and you would be criminally negligent in not ensuring the safety of the public.

You may also want to acquaint yourself with terms like "asymptomatic carrier" and "subclinical viral shedding" before you spout off again about the current subject matter.

Did you take extra hypocrite pills today?

All of the CF regulars have too much respect for the law; as it's clear you have the patent on hypocrisy, allay any fears you may have about anyone here infringing on your domain.

The climate of fear that right wing conservatives love to create is par for the course.

The level of ignorance you continue to display is right on par with your Bowsite CV.

""The surgeon tested negative twice for Ebola. CBS Local reported:

The surgeon, Dr. Martin Salia, will be treated at the Nebraska Medical Center in Omaha, the person said. A Sierra Leone citizen, the 44-year-old Salia lives in Maryland and is a legal permanent U.S. resident, according to the person, who was not authorized to release the information and spoke on condition of anonymity.

Salia is a general surgeon who had been working at Kissy United Methodist Hospital in the Sierra Leone capital of Freetown, according to the person familiar with the case. He came down with symptoms of Ebola on Nov. 6 but test results were negative for the virus. He was tested again on Monday, and he tested positive.

The State Department said in a statement late Thursday, that along with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, it had been in touch with the Maryland wife of an unidentified Ebola patient about transferring him to the Nebraska Medical Center for""

dockeating, according to you, "...a few weeks ago, according to some here, there was going to be a massive outbreak with Ebola."

Cite those quotes by individuals here that stated there was going to be a massive outbreak.

You can't because that's what you READ INTO the topic of risk. You simply don't have the mental wherewithal to capture what is being discussed.

That's why people here continue to call you a liar because you continue to make ludicrous statements like the one I've cited.

And the fact that you think all comments made by a number of members concerning risk with relation to Ebola are inane amplifies to me just how ignorant you truly are.

Again...just STFU!!!!

See if you can read my mind....

FEPOs are known for NVCs.

They were removed because they contained either misrepresentations of what has been stated by far more knowledgable posters on the subject matter or were outright lies.

I have a zero tolerance policy for fabrications on my threads.