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Stock market crashing ??
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Contributors to this thread:
NvaGvUp 21-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 21-Aug-15
joshuaf 21-Aug-15
slade 21-Aug-15
RK 21-Aug-15
BIGHORN 21-Aug-15
Sixby 21-Aug-15
Rocky 21-Aug-15
RK 21-Aug-15
kentuckbowhnter 22-Aug-15
Sixby 22-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 22-Aug-15
Sixby 22-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 22-Aug-15
Huntcell 22-Aug-15
Sixby 22-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 22-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 22-Aug-15
Sixby 22-Aug-15
slade 22-Aug-15
Sixby 22-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 22-Aug-15
HA/KS 23-Aug-15
sleepyhunter 23-Aug-15
Rocky 23-Aug-15
Sixby 23-Aug-15
RK 23-Aug-15
HA/KS 23-Aug-15
Sixby 23-Aug-15
slade 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
slade 24-Aug-15
Owl 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
Mike in CT 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
bad karma 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
Mike in CT 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
BIGHORN 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
Sixby 24-Aug-15
Rocky 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
mn_archer 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
HA/KS 24-Aug-15
Rocky 24-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 24-Aug-15
HA/KS 24-Aug-15
Sixby 25-Aug-15
Jim in Ohio 26-Aug-15
Rocky 26-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 26-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 26-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 26-Aug-15
nowheels 26-Aug-15
'Ike' (Phone) 26-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 26-Aug-15
petedrummond 26-Aug-15
Sixby 26-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 26-Aug-15
orionsbrother 26-Aug-15
Sixby 27-Aug-15
Rocky 27-Aug-15
bad karma 27-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 27-Aug-15
Sixby 27-Aug-15
Narlyhorn 27-Aug-15
Yendor 27-Aug-15
petedrummond 27-Aug-15
Narlyhorn 28-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 31-Aug-15
Narlyhorn 31-Aug-15
NvaGvUp 31-Aug-15
Narlyhorn 01-Sep-15
HA/KS 01-Sep-15
NvaGvUp 01-Sep-15
Rocky 01-Sep-15
Sixby 04-Sep-15
Sixby 04-Sep-15
HA/KS 04-Sep-15
Narlyhorn 04-Sep-15
Narlyhorn 05-Sep-15
Narlyhorn 05-Sep-15
Narlyhorn 05-Sep-15
Rocky 05-Sep-15
Rocky 05-Sep-15
Narlyhorn 05-Sep-15
Rocky 05-Sep-15
Rocky 05-Sep-15
Rocky 05-Sep-15
Rocky 06-Sep-15
Beendare 07-Sep-15
Sixby 08-Sep-15
RK 08-Sep-15
Hammer 09-Sep-15
From: NvaGvUp
21-Aug-15
Obama has nothing to do with it.

This is what the market does periodically and it's been doing it for decades.

From: NvaGvUp
21-Aug-15
Geeesh!

From: joshuaf
21-Aug-15
Waaaayyyyyy past due for a major correction.

From: slade
21-Aug-15

slade's embedded Photo
slade's embedded Photo

From: RK
21-Aug-15
Good Lord. Are you all idiots

JTV. Why would you love it! Your fellow Americans losing money WTF is wrong with you ???

Buckkiller. Really ???

Obviously some of you have NOTHING invested in the stock market

That's a shame. One of the best runs ever

A correction. Nothing more nothing less

From: BIGHORN
21-Aug-15
I agree. No one should be glad that the stock market goes down. A lot of my retirement money is in the stock market and I watch it all the time.

From: Sixby
21-Aug-15
BuckKiller X 2 A generation of adulterers, murderers, fornicaters, idolaters,sodomites and God rejectors , God will not and in fact cannot bless. We have to be blessable in order to receive His blessing. When we rejected Him and turned to the world we rejected the One that set this nation above all nations because as a nation we , even though imperfect recognized the God of Abraham , Isaac and Jacob as the one and only true God. Now we reject Him, We reject and laugh at His Word and at HIs Prophets and we kill His babies for convenience sake , We are no better than the nations that God already destroyed. We that are in Christ call upon all to repent and call upon God for his mercy to us and to this country before it is too late.

God bless, Steve

From: Rocky
21-Aug-15
I say it ain't over yet. Let see what Monday brings.

The Rock

From: RK
21-Aug-15
Rocky

Lets see what a years worth of Mondays bring.

None if this is short term stuff.

22-Aug-15
just look at this as a wonderful buying opportunity. relax.

From: Sixby
22-Aug-15
You might buy when it hits 10,000 which is where it should be to be on par with the real economy.

God bless, Steve

From: NvaGvUp
22-Aug-15
Sixby,

Why do you say that?

Show your work.

From: Sixby
22-Aug-15
NVA: My work is history. It clearly shows that when any nation turns away from God that that nation does not prosper. My work is driving down a highway and seeing business after business closed and staying closed for 10 years. Thousands of homes forclosed on by bloated, propped up banking institutions no longer make loans. 50 million Americans out of jobs and underemployed, 30 million to 50 million illegal aliens taking those same jobs, again propping up a system the is built on a rotten foundation. The fed and IMF keeping Wall Street propped up and contributing to a falsely prosperous stock market that does not in any way reflect the condition of the country. There is a lot more but I do not really feel the need to go any further. Besides, I highly doubt you would in any way , shape or form respect anything I have to say about the matter. You question was formed in the superiority of those that know more than the rest of us common people and you will immediately scoff at any answer you would get. My answer therefor is not meant for you or for your benefit but is simply a contrast to your arrogant and superior construct and I believe it truly represents how many Americans see things. I do not want to see the stock market fail, In fact I have some real interest otherwise but I believe a real correction will head in the direction of 10000 or even perhaps 8000. if it is to be a real correction that reflects the condition of this indebted , death wallowing nation.

God bless, Steve

From: NvaGvUp
22-Aug-15
Sixby,

My question was why you say 10,000 is where the market should be in order for it to be properly priced.

From: Huntcell
22-Aug-15
No way he could be consider illegal alien the reason Joseph and Mary were traveling by donkey was there were returning to there birthplace to register/census/taxed per roman law. And that's just the secular part of it depending on your In depth understanding and religion Jesus was the son of God per New Testament and the Angel Micheal per Old Testament in who God used as instrument to create the earth and all else here. thus of all beings Jesus can never be consider alien or illegal as he was before and the creator of such after him

Be careful!

From: Sixby
22-Aug-15
NVA: Ok I see what you are saying. Since there is actually no way of actually knowing where the bottom is it is nothing more than an estimate because that is just about where it was before artificial inflation. This is also just about where the economy really is IMHO. Not growing even at the 2 % because that is not taking a lot of real indicators into accounting such as underemployment and repossessions of property which in reality redistributes wealth to those that are heavy stock market participants from the middle and lower classes. Therefore in my peanut serfdom mind I believe that in order to achieve pariety, Stock Market to actual economy or even close that the market would have to go back to a place where the stock market was only double the value of the real economy instead of 4 X.

Anyway that is my thinking. Right or wrong. I certainly would not be jumping into the stock market right now even if I thought a certain stock was undervalued.

God bless, Steve

From: NvaGvUp
22-Aug-15
Sixby,

The market's valuations have some relationship with the state of the economy, but they have a lot more to do with the price of each company's stock relative to its' earnings and its' prospects.

From: NvaGvUp
22-Aug-15

From: Sixby
22-Aug-15
Kyle,but they have a lot more to do with the price of each company's stock relative to its' earnings and its' prospects.

Thanks, I appreciate that and do understand it. However, LOl the infamous but. should not a companies or banks earnings reflect productivity and sales rather than government intervention and propping up by massive infusions of cash which in fact project a false prospect for future gain? Problem is when the opm runs out they are hollow. This has been the real prospect of a future that is a hologram. Whether this last dump is the one is questionable. But believe this brother ya are playing with fire and when it blows up it is going to burn hard fast and down to the ashes.

I think knowing when to get out would be a good thing. However if one does not recognize the problem that is impossible to see it coming/ Its a lot like Obama refusing to recognize radical Islam.

From: slade
22-Aug-15
If it's the value of the companies only we should see it drop back to 7K...:)

From: Sixby
22-Aug-15
Kyle, I apologize for my earlier snarkiness. My bad as I misunderstood where you were coming from. nOt meaning to offend but to reflect and going back and reading it I realize I was not reflecting what you said but what I thought (wrongfully) that you were saying. Again I apologize and am relatively sure I won't completely learn the lesson but will try. I believe I got this from my mother. She never lost an argument or a conversation. (at least not that she ever admitted to) God bless, Steve

From: NvaGvUp
22-Aug-15
No apology necessary, Steve.

I may not always agree with you, but I always appreciate reading what you have to say.

Kyle

From: HA/KS
23-Aug-15
"About nine hundred points in two days, it is a correction that we should have expected but that doesn't mean it is going to proceed from here as normal."

Just because today was very hot (and it often is at this time of year) does not mean that this is not the beginning of the earth's temperature going off the scale, melting the ice caps, and flooding Denver.

From: sleepyhunter
23-Aug-15
I don't believe it's crashing. Time to buy low.

From: Rocky
23-Aug-15
Ask Gva about " Globlalization". He knows. On top of that China Brazil India and the Soviet Union are not exactly setting the world on fire.

The Rock

From: Sixby
23-Aug-15
Hackbow: Funny about how God has a way of witnessing to us if we will listen. I received this of the spirit nd now you provide evidence that some economist actually are predicting it.

God bless, Steve

From: RK
23-Aug-15
I remember back in the 60s one of my Uncles making the same claim as you Hackbow, prophecy is really coming to pass quickly, very quickly, pack your bags !

The most important times one lives in are the one that one lives in. Basically NOTHING is any different than any other generation. Same claims in all of the previous generations.

I think Non believers NEVER notice anything. If they did they would be believers.

God will move at his or hers pace and eventually we will get there. There are very few coincidences, just facts. Follow and study them and you will be good to go. Make sure your bags are always packed though.

From: HA/KS
23-Aug-15
"a Trillion just got sucked into the pockets of the world top 1% elites"

No, the trillion just got sucked from the imaginary values of assets.

It reminds me of how Trump came by his net worth. A high percent of what he claims as worth is the "value" of his name.

From: Sixby
23-Aug-15
Hmm, Are we not closer today to the coming of Christ than in the 60s? Prophecy upon top of prophecy of the end of days or the end of the age has been fulfilled since Israel became a nation which is the marking of the beginning of the end of the age. We are very close. Shall the Son of Man find faith when He returns? I think not much in the churches full of adulterers , sodomites and murderers. We must be born again. of the spirit and directed by the spirit of God. He that is born of the spirit is like the wind. The wind does not direct itself but it does only what God directs it to do.

God bless, Steve

From: slade
24-Aug-15
Black Monday! Chinese Stocks Dive – Down 8.5%

24-Aug-15
it is meaningless what is happening now in the US market except that in the end I will make a lot of money from it.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
When I left for the rifle range shortly after the market opened, the Dow was down 1,000 points and the S&P 500 was down over 90 points.

Now the Dow is down 112 and the S&P is down 19.

Panic over the weekend caused the early sell off. Then rational minds took over.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Can someone please tell me what Buckiller said? Because I have no clue.

From: slade
24-Aug-15
Easy answer Nva, Socialism.

From: Owl
24-Aug-15
Buckiller, I know what you mean but I disagree with the notion. The most altruistic markets reflect value, imho. Value is not represented by artifice. We have WAAAAAY too much of that built into the markets already, anyway.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Buckiller,

The best thing you can do for the poor is not be one of them.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Well said, Hackbow, all except your use of the word 'correction.' A market correction has nothing to do with lies.

As I've written here countless times, a person's emotions are by far the primary determinant of the investment success a person will have, not what he or she invests in.

Study after study have shown that investors get less than half of the returns the funds they invest in produce. Why? Because their emotions override their intellect and rational mind, causing them to both buy and sell at the worst possible times. Of the two, fear-based selling is by far the most damaging.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Hackbow,

A 'correction' is defined as a market decline of 10% or more. It's not over-used nor misapplied that I can see.

As for gambling, when you buy stocks, you're investing in capitalism and human entrepreneurship, period.

Investing in capitalism and human entrepreneurship IS NOT 'gambling!"

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
I'm on a conference call right now with the company I use almost exclusively for my larger portfolios. The presenter, who is their Chief Investment Officer, just quoted Vanguard legend John Bogle, who offered this advice:

"Don't just do something. Stand there!"

Well said!

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Buckiller,

"How many of you have even TRIED to take someone under your wing to help them "win" too? "

I've been doing just that for over forty years now. It's the essence of my business. I would think it's also the essence of KPC's business.

I've got clients who've been with me since the late seventies, from when they were just starting out all the way through their careers and now into retirement. They'd be happy to tell you they've learned from me and I helped them 'win.'

The creed of our planning company is "Serve First." I can't think of a better nor more successful business model than that.

24-Aug-15
Until you realize the loss or gain by selling it's all meaningless.

From: Mike in CT
24-Aug-15
What I am saying is that the spirit of true capitalism is to empower everyone to WIN in life.

A noble sentiment but not the definition of capitalism. What capitalism does prioritize is free enterprise, individual rights and private ownership.

Contrary to your post of contention with Slade, capitalism is most definitely "survival of the fittest". This is a critical principle that separates it from socialism (there are others of course) where one need not innovate or even be productive to survive.

In capitalism, innovation is rewarded, productivity is rewarded and it is our constitutional republic that provides the level playing field whereby eveyone has the opportunity to win in life.

I doubt anyone would have any quarrel with your sentiments about helping those in need. That my friend is charity, not capitalism.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
"Because that's what your brand of capitalism espouses. "

Say WHAT?????

That's so much BS it's almost laughable.

But since you brought it up, why don't you share with us your alternative?

From: bad karma
24-Aug-15
Robert from Connecticut?

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15

NvaGvUp's embedded Photo
NvaGvUp's embedded Photo
Let's put this all in historical perspective!

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Hackbow,

Why are you using simply the 'last two days' to determine if this is a 'correction?'

The S&P 500 hit a high of 2,130.82 on 5/21. It closed today @ 1,893.23. That's a drop of 11.1%.

The DJIA hit a high of 18,312.39 on 5/19. It closed today @ 15,821.78. That's a drop of 13.6%.

Unless you're using some new version of 'New Math,' I'm pretty sure 11.1% and 13.6% are more than 10%. ;^)

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Buckiller,

The problems with capitalism as you see them are not the result of capitalism. They are the result of politicians.

Please don't confuse the two, my friend!

From: Mike in CT
24-Aug-15
Capitalism should be fair and it should also be benevolent.

Do you realize how much like "from each according to his means, to each according to his needs" that statement sounds?

Aside from that, capitalism is fair. Anyone can succeed and anyone can fail. You seem to be implying that everyone should succeed and no one should fail. To compound the matter you also seem to be implying that it is the function of capitalism to ensure these favorable outcomes.

I find it ironic that you offer as a caveat "those who espouse personal responsibility". Surely you must realize that personal responsibility by definition means a willing acceptance of the risks and consequences of our actions. How do you promote taking personal responsibility for one's actions when you have a system in place that removes risks and/or adverse consequences? Wouldn't such a system foster the complete abrogation (or would it be make obsolete?) of personal responsibility?

Again you seem equally enamored as Bernie Sanders of the concept of a socialist utopia.

The more you write the less convinced I am that you understand exactly what it is you are advocating for.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Hackbow,

"U.S. stocks closed deep in the red on Friday as global growth concerns accelerated selling pressure to push the Dow and Nasdaq into correction territory."

That's 100% accurate and note, there is no mention of any time period. Corrections are measured from the previous high.

"As a former co-worker used to tell me; "Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered."

Actually, it's the other way around. "Hogs get fat. Pigs get slaughtered."

That saying has to do with markets or individual stocks that get seriously over-valued, as well as with investment strategies that are ridiculously aggressive and/or which are generally based purely on emotions and hype. (Think, "Buy gold!" from a few years ago.)

From: BIGHORN
24-Aug-15
My B-I-L started buying gold and silver about three years ago, no stock. I told him that he was crazy and his response was "we shall see". He still has all the gold and silver and I asked him how much have you made on your investment? Of course, he didn't want to talk about it.

A fool is born everyday.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
JTV,

"I put money into gold almost 30 years ago...I'm still ahead as of today.."

Compared to what?

Thirty years ago, gold was selling @ $310/oz. Today gold closed @ $1,152/oz. Over thirty years, that's an average annual return of 4.473%

OTOH, thirty years ago, the S&P 500 closed @ 187.17. Today the S&P 500 closed @ 1,893.21. Over thirty years, that's an average annual rate of return of 8.008%.

So, if you'd invested $10,000 in gold back then, today that investment would be worth $37,163.96.

However, if you'd invested that $10,000 in the S&P 500, today that investment would be worth $100,850.42.

So, your gold gig COST you $63,686.46!

Or, to put it another way, your net gain on your gold investment would have been $27,163.96. But your net gain on the S&P 500 investment would have been $90,850.42, or more than THREE TIMES as much.

Nice work!

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
But wait! It gets worse!

What matters in investing is not how many dollars you have. It's what those dollars will buy, because of inflation.

From July, 1985 through July, 2015, the cost-of-living, as measured by the Consumer Price index, rose at an average annual rate of 2.685%

So that means over these past thirty years, a $10,000 investment in gold has produced a REAL average annual rate of return of a whopping 1.788%. (FYI, that's an above average rate of return for gold.)

At the same time, the S&P 500 has produced a REAL average annual rate of return of 5.323%. (Also, BTW, that's a below average rate of return for the S&P 500.)

So now, as we look at buying power, which is all that matters, the gold investment now has a buying power of just $17,017.57. The buying power of the same investment in the S&P 500, OTOH, has a buying power of $47,391.02.

Net of the $10,000 investment, the score is: Gold, + $7,017.57 - S&P 500, + $37,391.02.

That's more than FIVE TIMES as much as the gold investment!

Again, Well Done! LOL!

From: Sixby
24-Aug-15
By its very nature capitalism is dog eat dog and it has no heart. Its wrong thinking to believe in a capitalist system that has a heart. That said. Socialist only have a heart when it comes to using OPM./ When that runs out they lose their heart. The heaviest proponents of Socialism are rich people that want to share your money but hang on to theirs. They are the very worst givers on the average.

True socialism would have to incorporate a Righteous, loving, monarch. King Jesus fits the bill and His rule of righteousness will be one of real socialism. Socialism not known in the world at this time and evidently un= obtainable as long as the nature of most men is entirely selfish from birth to death.

So , my analysis is do not expect pariety, or real benebolence from any form of government we may get from man. Look to God and to his government because that is where you will actually get real peace. both here and in the future.

Jesus said , Peace give I unto you, not as the world gives , give I unto you., Peace give I unto you.

I do not put my faith or peace into the hands of a government. country, money or anything of this world and my peace is absolute and does not depend on the circumstance of anything that happens or may happen to me. My future and my present is secure in the knowledge of Christ. I recommend all seek the same because it is joy unspeakable and full of glory and Bros. The world cannot give that.

I may lose my stock value tomorrow, whats left, I may lose my gold value, my silver value and my property value. But No one and no thing to come can separate me from the love and peace of Christ Jesus my Lord.

God bless, Steve

From: Rocky
24-Aug-15
I do not think that referencing the past to predict the present is all that difficult. I could be wrong.

The Rock

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
JTV,

"It was quite a bit more than 10k...."

Which means your foregone losses are multiples of the $10K I used as an example.

From: mn_archer
24-Aug-15
Man Kyle, that's almost depressing...

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
JTV,

Your losses are what you would have had relative to what you actually got. You underperformed by an enormous amount.

Investing in gold instead of capitalism cost you tens of thousands of lost opportunity dollars.

This isn't a pyramid scheme, these are simply the facts.

I said NOTHING about investing with me, BTW. Anyone could have invested in the S&P 500 and gotten the same results I noted. Your chose not to and you underperformed by a ton as a result

Too bad you find a need to defend your failure.

In addition, good money mangers outperformed the market, so your lost opportunity costs are even greater than what I posted.

NEVER compare me to a shyster, Jeff! The fact that you chose gold over the most widely accepted market investment and dramatically underperformed as a result is not my problem, nor is what I posted it in anyway fictitious or fraudulent.

That's the facts, Jack. The fact that you screwed up by investing in gold, which produces nothing, instead of capitalism and the genius of your fellow Americans is not my problem. It's your problem.

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
Paul,

Some people need educating, although in this case, I don't think it's doable.

From: HA/KS
24-Aug-15
Nva, never give up on a student.

From: Rocky
24-Aug-15
Defending your failures in public is what people do. It is a normal and natural instinct. Those who do not project weakness which is a failure and permanent affliction.

Like I said to "past post" any idiot can achieve. Tell me ten years from now what I should have been that would have the highest return of all investments. You can guess but you will never know. Who can't guess?

Your full of useless information even that in which you are informed.

...uh...."I don't understand".

The Rock

From: NvaGvUp
24-Aug-15
I don't, Henry.

Although this one is a serious challenge, because it looks to me as though his entire perspective on the market is seriously flawed.

From: HA/KS
24-Aug-15
Nva, one thing I have learned after many years is that some of the ones who seemed the most difficult were the ones who appreciated my efforts the most - after many years of life and reflection.

I did have the advantage of working with teens, though. Some who hated my guts (and mistakenly thought I hated theirs) are now Facebook friends.

From: Sixby
25-Aug-15
Our flawed understanding of the markets??? Triple digit drops for the last five days say you better start praying we are wrong/.

God bless, Steve

From: Jim in Ohio
26-Aug-15
I was heavily invested in Peter Lynch's famous Magellen fund through Fidelity in the late 70's, early 80's. I can remember making 10 percent just in stock dividends back then. Often made 30 percent per year. What happened to those type of returns?

From: Rocky
26-Aug-15
There you go again with the razor blade. You are just full of fun. You said you can afford to do anything you want to do. Remember that? Now we know that isn't true don't we?

The Rock

From: NvaGvUp
26-Aug-15
KPC,

You are correct, only it was several people here who proclaimed the end of the world in 2008-2009, not just one.

In early 2009 the S&P 500 was under 700 and people here were predicting it would go to 550 or 250 or worse.

Of course it bottomed out @ ~ 665, then took off, leaving all the doom and gloomers behind.

I remember the fall of 1987. From mid September through mid October, the Dow fell from ~ 2,750 to about 2,250. Then on October 19, it fell another 508 points to 1,748 in ONE DAY! That was a 22.5% drop, so relatively speaking, last Monday's decline was a pittance.

After that 'Black Monday' in 1987, the so-called experts were conducting sort of a reverse auction. Someone would predict it would drop to 1,500. Then the next guy would yell, "No, it's going to 1,250!" Then it was 1,000, then 750, then 500. It was laughable.

Unfortunately for those experts, that Monday's close @1,748 was the bottom and before the summer of 1988 arrived, we were back at new highs.

"You get in, you stay in, and everything will be alright.".....Nick Murray

"The market goes down, but it doesn't stay down, so it doesn't matter." ........also Nick Murray

"The train of equities will get you to your destination. Your job is to stay on the train!"..... Nick Murray yet again!

From: NvaGvUp
26-Aug-15
Rocky,

"Tell me ten years from now what I should have been that would have the highest return of all investments. You can guess but you will never know. Who can't guess?"

Sorry, but that's not what I did. I simply picked the most well-known broad-based index there is, sight unseen. I could have picked virtually any such market index and come up with the same results.

Moreover, I could have matched gold against the S&P 500 or any other US market index and come up with the exact same conclusion for any thirty-year period you want to name, going back to 1926. I only stop at 1926 because good data is not available before then.

The facts are that over time, gold returns almost exactly the same results as does inflation. Nothing more. Gold is a store of value only, so that's all you should expect. To out-perform inflation long-term, you need to invest in something that produces a good or service. Gold does not do that.

From: NvaGvUp
26-Aug-15
KPC,

I spend a lot of time educating every investment client before I'll take their money.

If I don't get a 100% buy-in from them on my investment philosophy, I won't take them as a client. I think that's part of the reason that after more than forty years in the business, I've never had even a single complaint filed against me with any regulatory agency, nor even with my own firm, ever. Given the highly litigious world you and I operate in, I'm damned proud of that.

I use Murray's 'train' analogy every time.

It goes something like this:

"You get on the train in Oakland,California, heading to NYC to spend some time with family. The train experiences a track or mechanical problem in Salt Lake City. You get off the train in disgust, only to learn a few hours later the train solved the problem, left the station and is again headed to NYC.

Only you're not on it!

You've got to stay on the train!

If you don't, that is not my fault!"

From: nowheels
26-Aug-15
I like that analogy KPC.

I've never heard it before but it's a great one to remember, whether in investing or life in general!

26-Aug-15
That was just a taste, lil bump in the road so to say....

From: NvaGvUp
26-Aug-15
"If it's the value of the companies only we should see it drop back to 7K...:)"

HA HA HA HA HA!!!!

We'd need to see the P/E on the S&P drop below 7 for that to be the case!

Ain't going to happen!

You won't live that long, slade. Nor will anyone else, alive nor not yet even born.

From: petedrummond
26-Aug-15
A buying opportunity. I will tomorrow.

From: Sixby
26-Aug-15
Since absolutely nothing , nothing drove the runnup today I would not touch the market with a ten foot pole right now. Let it shake out a bit. Course if you had bought Netflix today early you would be sitting on a 22 dollar profit. Not too shabby if you can make the right picks. This is a pro day traders daydream and a non pros nightmare.

God bless , Steve

From: NvaGvUp
26-Aug-15
Sixby,

You really should seriously consider not posting at all on any threads that have to do with markets and economics.

For when you do so, you only display to the world how woefully uniformed you are.

26-Aug-15
Well, I would alter the train analogy a bit for my philosophy:

You and your family are on the train. As a safety precaution, you take your immediate family that you are most responsible for and spread them throughout the cars.

If you think a motorcycle might be able to take a shorter route and move more quickly, maybe let your uncle give it a go.

If you believe that some experimental aircraft is worth taking a chance on, maybe task your devil may care expendable second cousin after a thorough inspection.

There's my bastardized version of the the cross-country train.

Diversification is a strategy of asset protection.

Accelerated asset growth is derived from focus and risk.

Have someone like Kyle or KPC assess your situation, discuss goals, determine timeframe and help develop a plan. Do your homework yourself, regardless.

At the very least, reassess strategy and allocation of the core on the train annually. Watch your crazy cousin in the experimental plane more closely. Make sure he has a parachute.

Don't be the guy who obsesses about the price of a bow, but pays no attention to larger finances. Don't listen to the siren song of day trading. Keep moving in the right direction.

From: Sixby
27-Aug-15
Kyle, So what drove the run up today. Speculation that the Fed might not raise the interest rate by 1/4 of one lousy percent? That is sad. It says the ecomomy seriously sucks when speculation on what may be or may not be is the driver for a 600 point largest of all time gain. Talk about a bunch of losers.

God bless, Steve

From: Rocky
27-Aug-15
Sixby,

Wave that off. This place is hardly the "world".

The information you get here gets about as much horsepower as a flea on a monocycle.

Enjoy it.

The Rock

From: bad karma
27-Aug-15
Ah, the "everyone here is stupid but me" philosophy. That explains so much about what you post and why.

From: NvaGvUp
27-Aug-15
I'd respond more often to Rocky, only I can rarely figure out what the heck he's saying. That, obviously, makes responding somewhat challenging.

From: Sixby
27-Aug-15
KPC. For once we are in agreement. What you said to me mirrored what I said and I appreciate the real answer. It is much better than name calling and denigration.

However now I know what drove yesterday. A lie. A revamping of the GNP to 3.7 percent from under 2 percent. I would call that manipulation of the stock market. You may call it whatever but that is what I believe happened. I just could not bring myself to believe that speculation that the fed would not raise the interest rate 1/4 of one percent would cause real people with real money to buy back in like that./

God bless, Steve

From: Narlyhorn
27-Aug-15
First of all, these market gyrations are the result of HFT, not the emotions of common investors. This is a fact, lost on those without some basic knowledge.

Designed by physics nerds and math geniuses called Quants, the programs are used to exploit minute movements and long term patterns in markets. As an example, buy a stock at $20 and sell at $20.0002. Doing so at 10,000 times a second, the proceeds add up. At the end of the day, they own NOTHING. Both manipulative and criminal, imo. Those who run these HFT algos are hedge funds, large financial institutions and banks.

The huge swings in index and share price is no longer the result of investor emotions as many would like you to believe. They are more likely to be nothing more than pitched battles between HFT algos of different "firms". Much of the time, share price determination is not based on the value of a company.

It's a world of investing, if that's what you call buying and selling at break neck speeds for slivers of profit that add up to huge profits for these institutionalized market participants. It often comes down to how fast they can purchase and off load a stock rather than how much a company is actually worth.

Did you know, several decades ago, the average length of time a stock was held was measured in years. It is now an average of five days. That's right, FIVE DAYS. Why? Because over half of all buying and selling is done between HFT programs, not investors. Anyone who tells you differently is trying to sell you unicorn farts and fairy dust.

The sophisticated skimmers will always be ahead of investors and regulators as long as the practice is allowed.

From: Yendor
27-Aug-15
I am so glad that we got all of our money out of the Stock Market. Now our IRA's own 22 rentals across the U.S. All the rents go back into the IRA, and we were able to retire at 61 making almost twice what we were when we had to work. Thank God for Self Directed IRA's

From: petedrummond
27-Aug-15
Yeah but I made a pile after the last drop. Buy some oil. You can't sell high if you don't buy low that's what the word from omaha seems to be. Suit yourself.

From: Narlyhorn
28-Aug-15
Yendor, ditto on self directed IRA's.

Spike, your point is not lost on me. Read up on the Knight Capital fiasco. A runaway algo that cost them at the rate of $10 million dollars an hour before they were able to find and stop the runaway program.

From: NvaGvUp
31-Aug-15

NvaGvUp's embedded Photo
NvaGvUp's embedded Photo
My neighbor and his wife came over for venison burgers yesterday and the conversation got around to the problem with emotions and timing the market. Steve mentioned the charts he's seen on what happens if you are out of the market for even a few days; charts with which I was very familiar.

Coincidences of coincidences, one of my main investment product providers just sent me a 28 pager on market timing, and danged if Page 3 isn't exactly what Steve and I were discussing.

So here it is. Source - Morningstar.

From: Narlyhorn
31-Aug-15
IMO, the FED via the US Givernment is leading the charge to kill the FRN. Everyone else is just trying to get out of the way.

From: NvaGvUp
31-Aug-15
Hard to Imagine, but yet again another CF thread on Bowsite has been hijacked and flown off into Bizzaroland.

From: Narlyhorn
01-Sep-15
The markets have been hijacked and flown off into Bizzoroland, imo.

You'll have to explain to me how these markets could be considered anything close to normal. HFT, QE, ZIRP, FOREX/LIBOR manipulations, zero and negative interest rates make them anything but normal from a historical sense.

From: HA/KS
01-Sep-15
"Economic destruction is first of all a moral problem."

Which is why it does no good to elect an immoral billionaire.

From: NvaGvUp
01-Sep-15
"Don't Just Do Something, Stand There!"............... John Bogle, legendary Vanguard guru.

Spike,

The point is as you suggested. Buy and hold.

But pleeeeeze, give me a break about your "ALL ten days" crap. The point is, if you miss even one of the best ten days, you get hurt. Moreover, most of those ten days occur after serious declines when all of the 'fear' "investors" are hiding under the bed.

No one is smart enough to know what the market will do tomorrow. Thus, playing on hunches, technical trends, fear, what all your friends at the cocktail party are saying, ad nauseam when investing, is the kiss of death for investors.

From: Rocky
01-Sep-15
That was one ugly SOB today I know that. That .25 is looking less likely everyday after just yesterday I was saying it was inevitable. These are the time GVA I don't understand myself. ;-)

We will see.

The Rock

From: Sixby
04-Sep-15
Technically the market may not be fixed but in reality electronic apps have rigged it for those that have that capability and bucks and it is no longer a market for the public , unless they invest through a management company that shows consistant returns over the long. However for those that would , on their own want to invest in individual stocks and expect to win at that game could be folly. Kind of like being your own lawyer.

God bless, Steve

From: Sixby
04-Sep-15
Electronic Apps that buy and sell instantly an individual stock at the fall of a couple of cents and the first rise that will produce a penny profit are not relatively that old. I am not sure too many people can and do compete with that and actually do buy and sell individual stocks making the profits you are talking about. I guess its possible but not probable and I know of none. In the even recent past yes. Now no. Electronic trade has even effected the NYSE to the point that floor trading is almost extinct and the NYSE is mostly a show.

When the news pans the floor that used to be loaded with traders its almost empty.

Mutuals are different and you may be referring to those. Most people I know are buying mutual funds and yes in the past there has over the long haul been nice profit returns.

From: HA/KS
04-Sep-15
Some come to the fountain of knowledge to drink, some prefer to just gargle.

From: Narlyhorn
04-Sep-15
Most of what KPC says is true.

However, there are differences between those situations and now. Ignore them at your own economic and retirement peril. Positioning your investments to minimize the impact is a perfectly acceptable and reasonable action to take. This is not a form or function of market timing and to imply it as such is a disservice to less knowledgeable investors.

The closer you are to retirement, the more important proper positioning becomes. Less so if you are more than a couple decades away.

A 2008 credit crisis redux appears imminent to many sophisticated investors, traders and economists. Even mainliners like Greenspan.

Why? Because of unprecedented monetary policy and reckless debt levels both domestically and abroad.

This isn't doomsday speak or market driven fear as some would like you to believe. It is based on sound domestic and global economic analysis.

I would also add, that to take a single slice of John Bogle's prolific market wisdom and apply it to investing as if nothing ever changes, you may want to take a look at what he is saying now. Since 2013 he has warned he believes the markets will experience two declines of 50% over the next decade. Should this alarm buy and hold investors in Bogle's view? Not at all, but he has never claimed it is bad advice to position yourself accordingly. Some will trust the advice of their advisors to sit tight. Some will be advised otherwise. It is YOU, the investor who is ultimately responsible to position yourself for tumultuous equity markets. If you have an advisor who is unable to make specific recommendations of what equities to hold and which to shuck, I would advise you to find another advisor. You may think differently and approach investment from an entirely different perspective. I'm fine with that, it's YOUR gains or losses at stake. Do as you wish.

No one can say how long the bull or bear will run. History says between 10 months to sixteen years. But to think nothing is different now is denial on scale I find difficult to fathom.

From: Narlyhorn
05-Sep-15
"At the end of the day, the market is going to do what the market does. Over time, it rises, it falls and it goes sideways. How, when, and to what extent an individual investor utilizes the market is unique to their particular investor's situation."

No argument there.

Are you suggesting that a self directed IRA or a Roth are related to gambling with intraday traders? I thinks that's pitching a specific industry angle, don't you?

It IS the opposite of Bogles decades long advice and it is for good reason? Bogle would be positioning his personal assets for an event like HE described and we would might be wise to do the same. Investors who do not do their own investing should be speaking to those that do so for them. Based on their specific circumstances and their trust in the warnings coming from mainstream legends like Bogle himself back in 2013. There are scores more whose names you may or may not recognize. If you can't find an advisor to help you weave the kind portfolio that meets those concerns, you should find a new advisor.

I've read a lot of what he's said and written over decades of self investing and more than not followed his advice with a splattering of Vangaurd index funds in my own investments.

As I stated, I largerly agree with the imvestment fundamentals to which you have ascribed. I just want to provide some balance on behalf of self investors like myself and a tendency here to discredit even successful self investing as any less skechy as using industry professionals. When I made that leap, I understood and practiced the same fundamentals of investing and some others and still do. As a matter of fact, I had a lifetime interest in managing my own money and sharing with others what has brought me nice, steady growth and protection not common in most investment portfolios and a financial education not matched by average give your money to some one to manage it for you "investors". My decades long fperformance is surely outperformed by many other professional money managers over shorter periods of time but I require a more bullet proof investment portfolio based on my circumstances, beliefs and future market outlook. If I wasn't going to let a money manager pic my holdings for me, I'd sure as heck need to learn to properly value, allocate and DCA into my investments. I also needed to decide who among the many market legends I should read to give me the kind of confidence I wanted in the distribution of any wealth I can generate in my lifetime. Suffice it to say, most of them won't be recognized as faces seen on CNBC and other MSM outlets, although a time or two, a few have had short stints as guests, until they became just a little too honest and forthcoming.

The truth is, the only difference in my investing opinion, which I don't sell btw, is my belief in holding no more than 60% paper assets w/ a 20% allocation in fairly valued land and other hard assets and 20% minimum allocation to physical gold, silver. I also like segregated accounts, for a higher stakes form of gambling in the daytrading casino (more specifically momentum trading up or down and hedging positions in another. A great set of tools to educate yourself and learn to be a better stock picker, commodity investor and insuring time sensitive protection via a hedging account. If the markets, particularly what I view to be a toxic long bond market, truly were unencumbered by government and federal reserve interventions those preferences may swing one way or another. Like I said, your mileage may vary.

From: Narlyhorn
05-Sep-15
"There is no one right way, but you are proof positive that the notion that the market is fixed, or somehow only profitable for electronic intraday traders is just plain false."

You'll have to show me where I said that to make it true. What I have said, is that HFT algos have a distinct advantage over any independent retail investors/traders that can't front run the markets like they do. Whether that is a form of rigging is debatable. I think it most certainly is, apparently you do not. Do you recall the Libor rigging scandal? How about the numerous financial misdeeds leading up to the 2008 credit crisis? How about the financial misdeeds since, that have led to over $250 billion in fines paired out to all of the largest financial institutions in the nation and globally. Are you claiming they have no effect on markets and they were not related to market rigging activities of those institutions? How about federal reserve monetary system interventions and the swollen liquidity that made available for those same institutions that goes right back into the markets enabling them to continue the same activities that caused the 2008 credit crisis in the first place? I could go on.

It appears to me, we are using different definitions of what markets and rigging really are. You also appear to be coming from a specific industry services sector perspective that depends on the confidence of retail investors for their business models to succeed.

"In my experience, it's a lot easier for some people to claim the market is fixed than to admit that they just don't understand the most basic principles of investing. One of them being buy low and sell high."

While I'm sure that defines some people, I'm not one of them. I am a free market capitalist that successfully manages his own investments and shares what he learns with others interested in doing likewise.

I am opposed to market interventions by government and central planners, who would like nothing more that to financially engineer the behaviors of their tax slaves, eliminate cash from our society, destroy middle class savers to further a fiat Ponzi that picks winners/losers and a regulatory process that favors large institutionalized investment firms over independent retail investors and middle class savers.

Your second post seems based on the previous premise that you have no evidence to support, at least that I have read so far, applies to those that are engaging in the discussion here. The only premise you used and I agree with in that specific post is, that markets eventually recover and some people lose money and or opportunity not only because they don't buy low and sell high, but because they don't understand the psychology of humans and money, valuing the fundamentals of businesses and/or investing in businesses or other markets they don't understand. I would also add that they don't understand monetary system principles and the differences in real money vs. paper money or the effects of currency markets on trade and markets in general and in addition to the effects of central planners on supposed free markets. That includes a much more broad population of investors than the ones you describe in your observations. That is problematic whether trading or investing and should be included as a part of every investors decision to invest for him/herself or in their selection of a financial advisor that understands and will act according to the same concerns as their own.

Since my elk hunt has been deferred by a family illness and is on a stand by status, if I don't reply for a few days it's not because I am yet out of bullets to support the views I've expressed, just "gone hunting."

From: Narlyhorn
05-Sep-15
Here's another interesting little piece of knowledge I've not seen discussed here. Did you know that of all the dollars in circulation around the globe, the majority of them are in circulation abroad?

That should concern everyone on many levels.

From: Rocky
05-Sep-15
KPC,

You seem to be explaining yourself more frequently these days to others than myself. Would that be a weakness in the text or that people just don't seem to "understand" you? I had believed through constant suggestion that I had that market cornered.

The Rock

From: Rocky
05-Sep-15
PC,

Thank You for the quick response. How high did you set those stirrups on that horse?

The Rock

From: Narlyhorn
05-Sep-15
Although the notion may not exclude independent investors from being successful, it is still a form of market front running and it most certainly has an effect on investor confidence and psychology. Since most trading is accomplished via those tools, they do have influence on market price discovery, particularly in the short term. Is it any wonder why short term trading has become more and more challenging for independent traders. To think you overcome those advantages of HFT algos solely with a long term buy and hold strategy ignores many of the justifiable concerns of financial and monetary system fraud, repression and investor/saver behavioral engineering.

The interesting thing to me, is how most all the major financial institutions benefit from the regulatory capture that exists, keeping these sorts of financial crimes that defraud taxpayers and investors alike, with restitution going back to governments instead of those defrauded. You could argue that the taxpayer is reimbursed by extension of government receipts, but that's a stretch and mis- characterization, imo. Primarily because the fines are only a small fraction of the ill gotten gains as one example.

If regulators continue on the same path, it isn't any wonder that independent retail investors would want to describe the markets as casinos and such. I think for very good reason.

So, unlike you seem to, I don't dismiss the notion entirely.

From: Rocky
05-Sep-15
The same I imagine as the back handed comment and swipe at another on this thread in a public forum for the misuse of a word that was innocently misplaced?

That kind of swipe?

The Rock

From: Rocky
05-Sep-15
I am the oldest. I am my brother and sisters keeper. They are and will remain as long as I breathe in very capable hands.

You are correct in the give and take department and I can take all that could ever be delivered to my plate on a recreational site such as this. I enjoy the interaction and the incisions both given and taken because learning is never ending. Shed a drop, acquire a vial and visa versa.

I do however become quite uncomfortable when I feel that another is being embarrassed unduly and without merit for the mere sake of correction, no matter perceived, friend or foe.

I should have on reflection allowed it to pass but the bone was hooked deep and I could not dislodge it from my throat. My silence became a cross too heavy to bear and had I remained silent I would have had a sleepless night. A simple PM probably would have sufficed but my fingers were finessed into thinking on their own.

I honestly regret the post because I have unwittingly without thought placed myself under the same scrutiny that has now corrupted my message.

My message stands firm however. My posture leaves little to be desired. I am strong enough for either to have a long term effect.

The Rock

From: Rocky
05-Sep-15
KPC,

This is what occurs when you think too much, or, not enough.

I sincerely apologize for this mess I created. I guess the strength thing must be re-visited because what I am feeling at this time is anything but strength.

The Rock

From: Rocky
06-Sep-15
...as I would have expected you to respond KPC. Now I know a ballgame would not be out of the question Stepped before I looked. Had it been someone else here I might have been toast...ed with no way out. ;-)

Now I can sleep.

The Rock

From: Beendare
07-Sep-15
Well I'm an individual investor and have done very well for my self over the years. I look for what I consider anomolies. I'm not afraid to be highly concentrated..or completely out of the market.

My 2015 is currently at only +4%..but I'm 90% in cash and have been for 5 1/2 months.

I think if aguy pays attention he can make some money; for example, it was no secret Obama would push for Health care bill...well take a look back at the United health chart for the last 5 years.

Currently Oil is taking it on the chin. I don't try to pick the bottom...but avg in to companies that are going to be there and bounce back. Is oil going to stay below Russia's break even for many years- I think not! You don't have to play oil futures ...you can buy oil stocks like BP paying a 6.5% dividend. If oil stays low...sure the div might get lowered...but still, CVX 4.5%, XOM almost 4% div...those companies aren't going out of business. Heck, the XLE pays 3%.

A guy can pick an entry point...avg in and if oil continues goes lower he can lowly buy the companies more leveraged to the price of oil for an added pop.

Lots of strategies but buying good companies or Real estate low... has always worked for me.

From: Sixby
08-Sep-15
Historically there could be a huge crash by or on the 25th of this month. Time will tell. Looking at seven year cycles Rosh Hashana Sept 25-26 , release of all indebtedness and year of fallow ground, followed by Yom Kippur which is the Day of Atonement. God stated I set before you life and death. Life is given when the nation or person chooses that which is right. Death comes when a nation or person chooses evil. A declaration has been made. A declaration that this nation chooses evil. When the King of Jerusalem took the holy vessels and had a feast , orgy and drank wine from the temple vessels a hand appeared on the wall and wrote Mene Mene Tekel UPharsen, That prophesied the destruction and capture of that city and that king.

When the Supreme Court ruled in favor of Sodomite marriage they took the most holy of God's institutions on this earth and defiled it with mans rendering which was man't overruling of God's ordained law. At that time having already had the fix in, Obamas and their sodomite bunch light the (White House) up with the colors that the Sodomites have stolen from God's rainbow. That declaration was that what was formerly good was now completely co opted by evil was literally a declaration of war against God.

Guess who loses that one!!!!! This turns the blessing of this nation into a curse against it. The results of the curse already in effect by overwhelming indebtedness which in itself is a declaration of a nation that has rejected God by the implementation of Roe Vs Wade and the murder of 60,000,000 babies by this lawless and Godless nation.

Crash is going to happen. Period. I would believe that it is sooner than you think and I believe that by the history it could well be on or very near the above dates.

God bless, steve

From: RK
08-Sep-15
Wouldn't God just punish the sodomites IN the White House and maybe the electrician that wired the lights ?

Why wasn't it the 23-24-26 last year. Lots of Sodomite stuff going on then also

From: Hammer
09-Sep-15
good thread

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