FRIDAY, MAY 13, 2016
"Bernie voters are not with her: These exit polls should rattle the Clinton campaign
Hillary has shown little to no interest in courting Sanders supporters. It could end up costing her the presidency
STEVEN ROSENFELD, ALTERNET
Bernie voters are not with her: These exit polls should rattle the Clinton campaign
This article originally appeared on AlterNet.
One of the most striking—and disturbing—takeaways from Tuesday’s West Virginia Democratic primary were exit polls that found large numbers of Bernie Sanders supporters saying if not Bernie, they would actually vote for Donald Trump next fall.
CBS News reported 44 percent said they’d vote for Trump, 23 percent for Hillary Clinton, and 32 percent for neither. These findings—especially Sanders’ supporters shifting to Trump—seem like a stretch, but maybe they’re not. (emphasis mine)
“West Virginia was once a solid Democratic state, a hotbed of labor unionism that went for Democratic presidential candidates from 1932 on in all but the Republican landslide years of 1956, 1972, and 1984… but more recently, the state has trended Republican, for a variety of reasons,” wrote The Atlantic’s David Graham. “Party realignment around conservative issues has led socially conservative West Virginians toward the GOP; racial animus toward President Obama has hurt the local Democratic Party; and the combination of weaker unions and liberal environmental advocacy against coal has lost the Dems some blue-collar backing.”
West Virginia is not a mirror of the rest of the country, although its economy and demographics resemble a lot of the Midwest and Appalachia. As Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, told AlterNet earlier this week, Sanders supporters do not just include younger people and progressives who feel President Obama’s promises in 2008 “never materialized.” They also include “anti-Hillary white males” who are not enamored with Bernie Sanders and don’t like Hillary either.
The question for millions of Sanders supporters nationwide is not so much are they going to vote for Trump, but whether they will vote for Clinton if she edges out Sanders for the Democratic nomination. The campaign has a Bernie or Bust subset, whose website claims it has “99,000+ people” who vowed to write in Sanders’ name or support the Green Party candidate in November, and hopes its ranks will reach 1 million people."
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If these polls are even remotely accurate and reflect the sentiments of Bernie's supporters nationwide, Hillary will get slaughtered in the General.
Slaughtered!
Most important note in the piece. The most hardcore Trump voter demo - poor, white, male - is more heavily concentrated in West Virginia across the entire state than in probably any other state in the U.S. The poorest county in the state gave Trump 91% of the vote.
Democrat Hillary Clinton was virtually tied with Republican Donald Trump in a Quinnipiac poll of swing state voters last week. trump cnn
But the results were worse than expected… Hillary Clinton trails Donald Trump with white men by 30 points in swing states Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Brookings.edu reported:
The election is nearly six months from now. And yes, it’s risky to place too much weight on any one poll. But the just-released Quinnipiac survey of three key swing states—Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—challenges complacent assumptions and suggests that the election will be closely contested.
The conventional wisdom is that Donald Trump is massively unpopular among women and minorities. The Quinnipiac poll indicates that this is true. The presumptive Republican presidential nominee trails Hillary Clinton among non-white voters by 43 points in Florida, 60 points in Pennsylvania, and 62 points in Ohio. Mrs. Clinton leads among women by 13 points in Florida, 19 points in Pennsylvania, and 7 points in Ohio.
These findings are consistent with another piece of conventional wisdom—that Mrs. Clinton will comfortably defeat Mr. Trump this November. Unfortunately for her, that’s not what the survey finds. The two candidates are essentially tied in Florida and Pennsylvania; in Ohio, the New York billionaire holds a small 43-39 lead. It looks like a tough fight.
What’s going on?
In the first place, Mr. Trump enjoys a sizeable lead among white voters in all three states: 19 points in Florida, 11 points in Pennsylvania, and 17 points in Ohio. Not surprisingly, his edge among white men is even larger: 36 points in Florida, 32 in Pennsylvania, 29 in Ohio. Within the white electorate, gender matters. Mrs. Clinton does 15 points better among white women than men in Florida and 17 points in Pennsylvania, but notably, only 7 points better in Ohio, which helps explain why her overall standing among women is lower there than elsewhere.
Feel The Bern!
They both make similar promises to the electorate "Your problem is not your fault and I will fix it for you."
Hillary cannot win if that transpires.
Bernie is the left's version of Ron Paul. He has no shortage of bats either.
Unfortunately, Bernie's policies would kill me - so no chance I would vote for him.
This election is the lowliest of lows...
Yup!
Horrible and Hollibler!
Way to go, voters!
So I got to vote for Cruz!
Think he's got a chance to win? ;^)
Considering that Cruz won 40 of 41 available delegates at the Washington State GOP Convention a few days ago, I'd say there are a fair number of Washington State Republicans who are in no mood to unite behind fake "republican" Donald Trump.
So, surrender is the best choice?
Lol...There it is!
More power in the various committees at the Convention.
And a clean conscience.