Scrappy's Link
"Though Clinton is leading, it’s notable that Trump’s numbers have dropped by only 2 points since May."
There, I fixed it for you.
It showed Hillary ahead more than other recent polls, but one thing they all have in common is that she leads in basically all of them. There is a reason Trump doesn't talk about the polls much anymore: none of them are good for him like they were during the primaries, and as we all know, he only talks about his "good" polls. With this ABC/WP poll, Trump was actually reduced to tweeting/lying that this poll was bad, but the others were good for him!?!? I guess by "good", he means he's only losing to Hillary by 4-8 points in most of the "good" polls. If those are "good", then I'd hate to see his "bad" polls.
"there are Republicans that definately want Hillary to win the election"
People who have supported Trump from the beginning could easily be accused of such, considering the absolute best way for Hillary to win the Presidency is to nominate Trump to run against her, and that has been forecast and predicted since last Summer.
Yes, I understand that the only way the Trumpkins can keep from being a nervous wreck is to say it's months till the election, polls don't matter. But stop kidding yourself, and us: if Trump was whoopin' Hillary in the polls right now, you'd be all over posting those like white on rice.
Actually, there were multiple polls saying the opposite.
Been that way since Ben Carson first started encroaching on Trump's lead last Fall.
I predicted many months in advance that neither McCain or Romney would beat Obama, but my predictions had nothing to do with the polls. No different here, I've been saying that Trump would lose to Hillary before they were even polling Hillary and Trump head to head.
By the end of the summer, that 8% will be wittled down to 2%.
He's sinking by the day.
I don't care which way they are leaning, they are ALL manipulated to the desired outcome....
Heck, Romney was ahead of Obummer at election time 4 years ago according to some of the polls....
In fact, after the last election, in an article with a couple Washington Insiders, it was pointed out that one of the major polling companies has very strong Demoncratic party ties. And it was pointed out that they had manipulated the numbers so Romney would be ahead so that hopefully some fence sitters would just decide to stay home and not bother voting if they thought Romney would win.
Its all smoke a mirrors.
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Stop being such a PussZ.
Some polls can be very accurate but in this race I think the polls will be off. The narrative out there is that if you vote for Trump you are a racist etc. I think a lot of people might be telling the pollster that they aren't voting for Trump but when they are in that voting booth they will pull the lever for Trump.
That's true, but Obama was ahead of Romney in many, many more polls than the reverse, and Obama won the ultimate poll on election day.
Had nothing to do with Santorum, and everything to do with Romney not being a Conservative. Same reason I didn't vote for McCain, same reason I won't vote for Trump.
Updated battleground-state ad data in 2016 race: Team Clinton $26M, Team Trump $0 https://t.co/he9gUETJPM pic.twitter.com/FdFZAgxTPI
— Mark Murray (@mmurraypolitics) June 28, 2016
I think it will hinge a lot on the first debate. If Trump blows it he will lose. If he comes across as reasonable and knowledgeable he will win.
I will tell you a lot of the members in my archery club voted for Obama and now are voting for Trump. Most of these guys are Democrats or Union workers. I was very shocked that they were supporting Trump and they all were with him from the beginning.
Bill Clinton was a master of this, and the dumb-ass republicans (Bush 41 and Dole) did nothing to counter it, to their great detriment. The Dems set the narrative on their terms.
He DID say he would self fund the primary contest though.
Hellery 42%, Trump 40%
HRC up in battlegrounds poll:
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) June 29, 2016
51/37 in FL
45/41 in IA
50/33 in MI
48/38 in NC
46/37 in OH
49/35 in PA
45/38 in VA
https://t.co/KXqkGHrrz9
Those numbers are ridiculous and I think you know it.
They are WAY off the RCP averages for those states.
I will. Trump is saying some of the right things. He's also saying a lot of atrocious things that he would be ripped for by a lot of people here if he were Hillary or Obama. But we don't know which - of anything he says - that he actually believes and means, because he's a pathological liar.
Foreign politicians report getting emails from Trump seeking illegal donations https://t.co/Oeb1FKq2Kf pic.twitter.com/d8Z6mRftbb
— The Hill (@thehill) June 29, 2016
Funny, I would have said the same about the Q. poll you mentioned. Way off the RCP average.
I don't know what the RCP averages are for those states, haven't kept up with it, but I do see the poll shows a Hillary lead across the board in every state mentioned. I'll bet that's not far off the average.
By the way, since BowSniper uses 538 as his Go-To Political Predictions Bible, I'm sure he'll be heartened to know that they just came out with a forecast that shows Hillary has an 80% chance of winning the General Election, in a landslide over Trump.
Over the past ten years, the social/religious right folks, despite only being 30% of the country, insist that it be "their guy" or no guy and abstain from voting if the Republican nominee's name doesn't start with Reverend or if he doesn't sound like one.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are able to unite a heterogenous group of people all the way from middle-America white male union workers and farmers, all the way across the spectrum of suburban moms, young people, multiple minorities, all the way to LGBT and whackadoodle kale-worshipers behind one candidate over the past ten years. And yet, now they're struggling to do that.
McCain never stood a chance with Obama's popularity. Remember... he lost really bad. People want to blame McCain, blame Palin, blame Iraq, or blame this or that, but the reality is, the Republican Party is to blame for not putting forth a candidate that people can believe in since Reagan.
There's now a chink in the Democrat's armor and conservatives can't get themselves to group up and win. There's no way they can win without everyone getting on board.
That's the reality of the present and the future for conservatives. They just flat-out don't have the numbers to bifurcate on a nominee and still win the POTUS election.
Both sides in the conservative debate point the finger at the other side for causing a Republican loss in the general election, but the truth is, the only thing they're both correct on, is the self-fulfilling prophesy of losing. The blame lies in the entire movement for fracturing Reagan's coalition and gains.
1) all of the normal toss-up states – Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, etc. – have been moved into the “Leaning Democratic” column, leaving Trump no mathematical way to make up the difference unless there is a sizable shift in public opinion.
2) In Texas and two other red states, Trump only leads Clinton by single digits. Romney clobbered Obama there by 16 points in 2012. In Arkansas, where the 2012 GOP nominee beat the current president by 24 points, Trump only leads Clinton by 11.
3) if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. Virginia and North Carolina, have moved closer and closer to Democrats of late. (Obama won both states in 2008 and carried Virginia in 2012.)
4) Trump's dismal numbers among women and Hispanics could put states such as Arizona and even Utah in play for Democrats, Which would be disastrous for Trump.
Here's the full breakdown:
Safe Dem (164): California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine* (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New York (29), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington, D.C. (3), Washington state (12)
Likely Dem (37): Maine (1), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7) Lean D (78): Florida (29), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10) Pure Tossup (68): Colorado (9), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) Lean R (28): Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Nebraska* (1)
Likely gop (27): Indiana (11), Missouri (10), Utah (6)
Safe gop (136): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (8), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
1) all of the normal toss-up states – Ohio, Florida, Virginia, North Carolina, Colorado, Nevada, etc. – have been moved into the “Leaning Democratic” column, leaving Trump no mathematical way to make up the difference unless there is a sizable shift in public opinion.
2) In Texas and two other red states, Trump only leads Clinton by single digits. Romney clobbered Obama there by 16 points in 2012. In Arkansas, where the 2012 GOP nominee beat the current president by 24 points, Trump only leads Clinton by 11.
3) if Clinton wins Florida and carries the 19 states (plus D.C.) that have voted for the Democratic presidential nominee in each of the last six elections, she will be the 45th president. Virginia and North Carolina, have moved closer and closer to Democrats of late. (Obama won both states in 2008 and carried Virginia in 2012.)
4) Trump's dismal numbers among women and Hispanics could put states such as Arizona and even Utah in play for Democrats, Which would be disastrous for Trump.
Here's the full breakdown:
Safe Dem (164): California (55), Connecticut (7), Delaware (3), Hawaii (4), Illinois (20), Maine* (3), Maryland (10), Massachusetts (11), New York (29), Rhode Island (4), Vermont (3), Washington, D.C. (3), Washington state (12)
Likely Dem (37): Maine (1), Minnesota (10), New Jersey (14), New Mexico (5), Oregon (7) Lean D (78): Florida (29), Michigan (16), Nevada (6), New Hampshire (4), Virginia (13), Wisconsin (10) Pure Tossup (68): Colorado (9), Iowa (6), North Carolina (15), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) Lean R (28): Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Nebraska* (1)
Likely gop (27): Indiana (11), Missouri (10), Utah (6)
Safe gop (136): Alabama (9), Alaska (3), Arkansas (8), Idaho (4), Kansas (6), Kentucky (8), Louisiana (8), Mississippi (6), Montana (3), Nebraska (5), North Dakota (3), Oklahoma (7), South Carolina (9), South Dakota (3), Tennessee (11), Texas (38), West Virginia (5), Wyoming (3)
Scrappy's Link
Conventional election wisdom is that the incumbent must be polling over 50% or they will lose. hilary is seen as the incumbent in this election.
I realize that nothing conventional describes this election cycle.
Donald Trump's 40 percent - too close to call - as American voters say neither candidate would be a good president and that the campaign has increased hatred and prejudice in the nation, according to a Quinnipiac University National poll released today.
This compares to results of a June 1 national poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University, showing Clinton edging Trump 45 - 41 percent.
When third party candidates are added to today's survey, Clinton gets 39 percent with Trump at 37 percent. Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson gets 8 percent and Green Party candidate Jill Stein gets 4 percent.
Sorry, but that is just a flat out lie.
It is no wonder you had no problem pivoting to Trump, you lie and demagogue with just as much ease as he does. Good job.
Support for a new nominee among Republican voters this week reached 52% in the NBC News poll and 51% in the Fox News poll. It's a thing.
— Noah Rothman (@NoahCRothman) June 29, 2016
Wow, that is STRONG. Rasmussen had Romney beating Obama in a poll 2 days before the election in 2012, so we know their track record is spot-on. Oh wait....
That is the first poll since May 19th showing Trump in the lead. I guess now we know why slade hasn't been around much lately, he only pokes out from under his rock when there is good polling news for Trump.
@SteveDeaceShow So let me get this straight. All the other 28 polls are bad. Rasmussen good. The same Rasmussen that had Romney guaranteed.
— mailbox joe (@mailboxjoe) June 30, 2016
Jeez. New Reuters tracking poll has Trump at 32% nationally.
— Greg Sargent (@ThePlumLineGS) June 30, 2016
Clinton 42
Trump 32
Put your $'s on Trump and retire, in style, early !!!
"Utah Sen. Mike Lee did not mince words when he was asked why he has not yet endorsed Donald Trump for president.
“We can get into that if you want,” Lee said in a telephone interview with Newsmax TV on Wednesday. “We can get into the fact that he accused my best friend’s father of conspiring to kill JFK.” But Lee wasn’t done there. He continued: “We can go through the fact that he’s made statements that some have identified correctly as religiously intolerant. We can get into the fact that he’s wildly unpopular in my state, in part because my state consists of people who are members of a religious minority church — a people who were ordered exterminated by the governor of Missouri in 1838. And statements like that make them nervous.”
During the Republican primary, Trump suggested that rival Texas Sen. Ted Cruz’s father was somehow connected to the assassination of President John F. Kennedy. Trump’s claim was based on a dubious National Enquirer story. Lee endorsed Cruz in the race. “He said that. He actually said that,” Lee recalled on Wednesday. “He said that without any scintilla, without a scintilla of evidence. Now that concerns me.”
It appears Lee is not alone. According to a Fox News national poll released Wednesday, more than half of Republicans say they would prefer a different nominee than Trump. And just 74 percent said they preferred him over Hillary Clinton, down from 82 percent in May. The survey showed that Trump trailed the former secretary of state by 6 percentage points (44 percent to 38 percent) in a general election matchup. In early June, the same poll had Clinton leading Trump by just 2 points (42 percent to 39 percent)."
Quite to the contrary, as you well know. Some of my correct predictions during the primaries were expressly against what the polls were overwhelmingly showing.
By the way, how many of all those polls showing Hillary in the lead have you posted, since mid-May? I think it's actually you who are all about polls. At least the one that shows Trump leading. Hey, gotta' hang your hat on something I guess.
HA/KS's Link
hilary has won 9 of the last 10 polls - and NONE of them count in November.
RCP average - electoral college at link
