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Contributors to this thread:
HA/KS 02-Feb-18
Woods Walker 02-Feb-18
JTV 02-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 02-Feb-18
Mint 02-Feb-18
BIG BEAR 02-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 02-Feb-18
Squash 03-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 03-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 03-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 03-Feb-18
Buckiller 03-Feb-18
jjs 03-Feb-18
gflight 03-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 03-Feb-18
kentuckbowhnter 03-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 03-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 03-Feb-18
Beendare 03-Feb-18
Sixby 03-Feb-18
BIG BEAR 03-Feb-18
Trax 03-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 03-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 03-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 03-Feb-18
kentuckbowhnter 03-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 03-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 03-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 03-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 03-Feb-18
BIGHORN 03-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 03-Feb-18
freeglee 03-Feb-18
Kodiak 03-Feb-18
Sixby 03-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 03-Feb-18
HA/KS 03-Feb-18
Sixby 04-Feb-18
HA/KS 04-Feb-18
Kodiak 04-Feb-18
bigeasygator 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
Kodiak 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
K Cummings 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
K Cummings 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
K Cummings 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
K Cummings 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
HA/KS 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
HA/KS 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
HA/KS 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
HA/KS 04-Feb-18
sleepyhunter 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
Trax 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
K Cummings 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
Keith 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
Rocky 04-Feb-18
freeglee 04-Feb-18
freeglee 04-Feb-18
freeglee 04-Feb-18
Rocky 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 04-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 04-Feb-18
kyrob 04-Feb-18
Irishman 04-Feb-18
Rocky 04-Feb-18
K Cummings 05-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 05-Feb-18
Irishman 05-Feb-18
Irishman 05-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 05-Feb-18
K Cummings 05-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 05-Feb-18
BIG BEAR 05-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 05-Feb-18
buckhammer 05-Feb-18
Squash 05-Feb-18
kentuckbowhnter 05-Feb-18
Kodiak 05-Feb-18
gflight 05-Feb-18
JTV 05-Feb-18
Mint 05-Feb-18
Sixby 05-Feb-18
Ryan from Boone 05-Feb-18
bigeasygator 05-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 05-Feb-18
freeglee 05-Feb-18
Bentstick81 05-Feb-18
gflight 05-Feb-18
Bentstick81 05-Feb-18
TSI 05-Feb-18
Ryan from Boone 05-Feb-18
K Cummings 05-Feb-18
freeglee 05-Feb-18
gflight 05-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 05-Feb-18
JTV 05-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 05-Feb-18
JTV 05-Feb-18
Sixby 05-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 06-Feb-18
Mike the Carpenter 06-Feb-18
Pete In Fairbanks 06-Feb-18
Missouribreaks 06-Feb-18
K Cummings 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
Sixby 06-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 06-Feb-18
Trax 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
Trax 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
bigeasygator 06-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
K Cummings 06-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
Keith 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 06-Feb-18
K Cummings 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
Michael 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 06-Feb-18
Annony Mouse 07-Feb-18
Sixby 08-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 08-Feb-18
Anony Mouse 08-Feb-18
K Cummings 08-Feb-18
HDE 08-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 08-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 08-Feb-18
Trax 08-Feb-18
gflight 08-Feb-18
Trax 08-Feb-18
Buckiller 08-Feb-18
bluedog 08-Feb-18
JTV 08-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 08-Feb-18
Sixby 09-Feb-18
Tiger-Eye 09-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 09-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 09-Feb-18
Sixby 11-Feb-18
TGbow 11-Feb-18
K Cummings 11-Feb-18
Sixby 11-Feb-18
NvaGvUp 11-Feb-18
K Cummings 12-Feb-18
Grey Ghost 12-Feb-18
sleepyhunter 12-Feb-18
From: HA/KS
02-Feb-18
Rising and falling stock market are not only unpredictable, but also difficult to analyze after the fact.

According to leftists, today's drop was due to falling confidence in trump.

According to business analysts, it was due to the too strong jobs and wages report that came out. Rising employment and wages may encourage the FED to raise interest rates to throttle inflation. Raising rates are balanced by falling stock prices - at least according to common thinking.

In my mind, even more important than stock prices is what the FED has done and may do.

For 8 years, the FED flooded the world with dollars to mask (or maybe just control) the damage being done by obama.

If the FED starts raising rates, the federal budget will quickly be busted because a small rate hike is a lot of money when you are borrowing $20 trillion.

Rising interest rates cause ripples throughout the economy.

Presidents get too much credit (and blame) for many things. That includes stock prices.

From: Woods Walker
02-Feb-18
ANYTIME the government touches anything it turns to crap. This applies to economics more than anything else.

From: JTV
02-Feb-18
"Rising interest rates cause ripples throughout the economy." .... Bingo !!

From: Grey Ghost
02-Feb-18
I hope you gentleman have the ability to cash out on some of the recent gains. I have a feeling this could be a 10%-15% correction before it's done sliding.

Do you think Trump will take credit for the correction like he did the rise? That's a rhetorical question, BTW.

Matt

From: Mint
02-Feb-18
Which is why the market goes down sometimes, people panic, sell off and then miss when it bounces back. I've weathered many corrections and ALWAYS came out a winner when my friends tried to time the market.

From: BIG BEAR
02-Feb-18
I stay out of it. I bury cash in coffee cans in my back yard.

From: Grey Ghost
02-Feb-18
No panic or timing here, Mint. Just a little profit taking for safe measure. I've gotten more cautious than greedy as I've aged.

Matt

From: Squash
03-Feb-18
So it’s a bad thing that, wages are increasing, unemployment is low, gdp is up, 200,000 more jobs created last month, industry is investing in their employees and their companies here in the US. ?

When Greenspan ran the FED, he missed the dot com bubble, and was oblivious to the housing market collapse in07-08. And now the FEd is worried about inflation? The FED needs to get the hell out of the way of our recovering economy.

From: Grey Ghost
03-Feb-18
The Feds haven't raised interest rates since Dec 12, 2017. They chose to leave rates unchanged last Wednesday. Fed rates are still very low at 1.5%. So, I don't think that caused the sell-off we saw last week.

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
03-Feb-18
If you look at history, when the Fed raises rates, the market generally takes a hit, but then soon bounces back.

So ignore it.

To quote Nick Murray, "The market goes down, but it doesn't stay down, so it doesn't matter."

From: Grey Ghost
03-Feb-18
Unless it was a 30 day delayed reaction by investors (not likely), last week's sell-off wasn't due to Feds raising rates. As I stated, the Feds chose to leave rates alone last week. Some may claim the sell-off was due to speculation over future rate hikes, but I think that's a stretch also.

Matt

From: Buckiller
03-Feb-18
Any stock market rise of nearly 10,000 points in 14 months is EXTREMELY suspect. No way around it. Everyone with a little wisdom can see that it is not stable. Be careful my friends!

From: jjs
03-Feb-18
Big Bear, I did the same but I used the plastic coffee cans and cannot find them with my metal detector, going to be a lot of holes being dug. As far as a correction we haven't had one for over 8 yrs and when it hits it will be a major one, the fiat currency is nothing build on a house of cards. The only solution I see is to go back to the Gold Standard, which will hurt at first but will put the fake currency back in order. I read that this would put 1oz of gold at $10000 from the mathematical equation of total world gold holdings. The bubbles are there and just get your own house in order when everything will pop.

From: gflight
03-Feb-18
Yellen is out. What will Powell do? OMG....

If we have a big enough drop I will buy more out of my "safe" money.

From: Grey Ghost
03-Feb-18
Buckiller,

I agree. When it seems to good to be true.....

Matt

03-Feb-18
the average for interest rates is a little over 5% so we got a ways to go to get back to the average. it will be good when we get there.

From: Grey Ghost
03-Feb-18
The Feds stated long-term plan is to raise rates 1% each of the next 2 years, so 5% is a ways out if they stick to that plan.

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
03-Feb-18
"Any stock market rise of nearly 10,000 points in 14 months is EXTREMELY suspect."

The number of points is irrelevant. What IS relevant is the percentage increase.

Example: When the Dow went from 10,000 to 20,000, that was a ten thousand point increase and a 100% increase. But when it goes from 20,000 to 30,000, which it will at some point, that's also a ten thousand point increase but only a 50% increase.

From: Beendare
03-Feb-18
I dunno how many of you guys own a business...but I can tell you labor is tight....and whenever that happens you get wage inflation- which is good for the avg working stiff...but bad for inflation.

Just another case of Trump doing more for the avg US worker than the Dems have done for 50 years. That Dem party leadership should be ashamed of themselves. Trump literally schooled them in one year.

I'm not a fan of Trump the person.......but his heart is in the right place policy wise; America first is right.

From: Sixby
03-Feb-18
Nothing more than a super strong economy along with a light raise in interest rates, stronger bond market and more than anything else profit taking to pay for the increase in salarys and wages and bonuses to employees. All is great. getting better rapidly and I see a stock market in the near future of perhaps as much as 30,000. Donald Trump is the best president that this country has ever had. Period. His policys are 100 percent pro America, Pro growth and have shown what a bunch of fools we have had as presidents over the last century. He broke the mold and that is why so many hate him. He literally destroyed the Bush dynasty , the one world agenda, and now the Democrat party. God bless America and our president , his cabinet, and all of you. Pray for our president, for his cabinet, against the evil and the agenda of the left that have attempted and still want to destroy this country. God bless, Steve

From: BIG BEAR
03-Feb-18
Better than George Washington ??

From: Trax
03-Feb-18
I like what you're saying Sixby and I wish I could be as optimistic. I'm a bit scared of the market right now. Very pro on the economy and what Trump has done thus far, thrilled with it actually. But scared of the stock market right now. We are long over due for a real correction. Not a question of if, it will come. It doesn't matter who is president. I see a lot of long held blue sky. I'm going by memory but what was the market at on the infamous Black Monday crash of '87? 2700? Then took a 22% hit?

What would a 22% over many days do to todays DOW? Correct me if wrong but our hit this last week was 600 some odd points or about 2.5%. The stop is at 7% I think. Scary. I don't know if this is the beginning of a real correction or this was an anomaly. This coming week will tell.

From: NvaGvUp
03-Feb-18
Trax and others,

So what if we get a big correction?

Unless you need your money TOMORROW, it does not matter what the market does today, yesterday, nor tomorrow!

NOT EVER!

You get in, you stay in, and everything will be all right.

The problem is exactly what we're seeing on this thread. People get scared and then they make emotional and WRONG decisions over and over and over again.

Absolutely the market will scare the crap out of you from time to time. That's just the way it works and putting up with that is the price of admission.

Since 1934, a $10,000 investment into the S&P 500 (which you can't actually buy) would have grown to over $49,000,000 by the end of 2016, which represents an annual average rate of return of 10.9%. NICE!

At the same time, a $10,000 investment into the Investment Company of America, the oldest fund in the American Funds family, would have grown to over $129,000,000 even after all fees and expenses. That represents an average annual return of 12.1%, Even NICER!

The problem investors have has little to do with the investments they make. Instead, it has everything to do with them letting their emotions and their stupid thinking and actions stop them from getting even 50% of those returns. I'm seeing several posts on this thread which, sadly, simply verify my concerns.

Trax, your posts here are at the very top of my "Stupid Thinking" list!

Congratulations! You're #1!

From: Grey Ghost
03-Feb-18
On the other hand, if you've saved and grown an adequate amount to fund your "Golden Years" at a certain lifestyle level, and a major correction would alter those plans, "getting in and staying in" may not be the best advice.

Nothing wrong with moving stock profits to other more stable investments.

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
03-Feb-18
GG,

WRONG!

When my parent's generation retired, their combined life expectancy was perhaps an other 5-10 years. So reducing exposure to the whims of the markets might have made sense.

But today, a couple age 65 has a life expectancy for the last survivor of age 85 or beyond,

If you are not invested accordingly, your chances of outliving your principal, outliving the income on your principal, and still not being dead are very high!

03-Feb-18
GG, panic sellers create amazing buying oportunities for the rest of us, always have and always will. I salute them.

From: Grey Ghost
03-Feb-18
"If you are not invested accordingly, your chances of outliving your income and still not being dead are very high!

Even more reason to secure your funds safely, if you have enough to last your expected lifetime.

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
03-Feb-18
GG,

Yet if you are under-weighted in equities, chances are you will NOT have enough assets to keep you from needing your children to support you.

I do this for a living, Matt, and I've done so for all of my clients for coming on 43 YEARS!

What are your credentials on doing the same?

From: Grey Ghost
03-Feb-18
Kyle,

My credentials are common sense. If you have enough, make a good portion of it safe. Not necessarily all of it. Certainly you want to stay in equities. But, not to the extent a 30 year old should.

Agreed?

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
03-Feb-18
Matt,

Sorry!

If you are not heavily invested in equities and if you are a boomer, you are screwing yourself.

It's called 'inflation.'

The number of dollars you have when you retire matters not at all.

What matters is what those dollars will buy.

I do this for a living, Matt, and everyone of my clients, many who are now age 85-90+ are very well fixed financially because they've followed my advice for the past thirty or more years.

How abuot you, Matt? Can you say the same?

I think not.

From: BIGHORN
03-Feb-18
Since I am over 70 1/2 I am required to take out a minimum distribution. I didn't think that the amount I took out would have this much affect on the market. Haha

From: Grey Ghost
03-Feb-18
"...you are screwing yourself and very likely yourself."

Wait. What?

"It's called 'inflatinion.'"

Sorry, Im not familiar with that term. Can you explain?

I hope you proof read your client communications more thoroughly.

Matt

From: freeglee
03-Feb-18
Worst market in Two Years with Worst to come!!!!

Thanks Doo Doo Don!!!!

From: Kodiak
03-Feb-18
Resoved!

From: Sixby
03-Feb-18
Diversification is the name of the game. Stock market is great but most people need a good program put together by someone line Kyle. I put money in stocks, Gold, and believe it or not in realestate and even in Bitcoin. All have been very profitable for me and God is good.

God bless, Steve

From: NvaGvUp
03-Feb-18
Until Bitcoin crashes Steve, which it will.

Investing in gold is a fools gold play.

Long term, gold almost exactly matches inflation.

That makes sense, because gold produces nothing and therefore can be nothing but a proxy for inflation.

From: HA/KS
03-Feb-18

HA/KS's Link
"Cryptocurrency Traders Lose $115 Billion in 24 Hours as Bitcoin Bloodbath Continues"

"India has become the latest country to seriously talk about a regulatory crackdown on bitcoin.

There are fears that bitcoin’s lofty valuation may have been artificially propped up.

Facebook has banned ads that promote cryptocurrencies and initial coin offerings."

From: Sixby
04-Feb-18
I'm in USDollars, I'm good for now. Funny that we have little inflation but my gold has gone clear to 1360 this last week. From 1230. not too long ago. Sides I do not have a lot and its real, not paper.

God bless, Steve

From: HA/KS
04-Feb-18
"1360 this last week. From 1230"

Mostly due to a weaker dollar?

From: Kodiak
04-Feb-18
Most likely because people are buying gold as a hedge right now.

I think this market will continue to tank down to 20ish, human psychology being what drives these things.

From: bigeasygator
04-Feb-18

bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
Speaking of bitcoin, I got a chuckle out of this one.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
I think the rising bond yields had a lot to do with the stock sell off last week.

And I agree Kodiak, I don't think this correction is over. As I said earlier, a 10-15% slide wouldn't surprise me.

Matt

From: Kodiak
04-Feb-18
...and speaking of Bitcoin, I knew something was up a couple months ago when ALL the msm was running nonstop stories about it. Kids getting filthy rich, granny becoming a millionaire almost overnight...

Classic pump and dump by the powers that be.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
I've avoided the Bitcoin nonsense too. It never made any sense to me.

Matt

From: K Cummings
04-Feb-18

K Cummings's Link
Why do you even bother Kyle? This why I rarely comment here on matters of specific investment strategy, even though it's my business.

I have a neighbor (not a client) that is constantly calling me or approaching me at a social function to talk about his next greatest investment, or to tell me how he's made "a killing" in some certain stock, fund, etc., what he feels the market is going to do next, or how he's going "park his profits on the sidelines for a while until the silliness works it's way out of the market. Bear in mind, this man is 62 years old, is partners in a successful business, makes a fine income, and by all appearances, he has things well under control for his retirement.

BZZZZTTTTT....

I got a look at his "portfolio" about a month ago and all totaled, it's worth less than 100k. He's "made a killing" and lost his a$$" so many times throughout the last 30-40 years that it isn't even funny.

Point being (and I'm sure you do the same), I take it with a grain of salt when people talk about their investment prowess.

When I get a new client one of the first things I explain to them is that whether you are an advisor or not, everyone has the same access to investment advise. It ain't rocket science. My biggest job is to prevent you from doing something stupid once your money is invested.

Every time we have a dip in the market of any magnitude, some people can't wait to rush out and scream from the highest mountain about how it's all over, they knew it couldn't last, it's different this time, and it will never be the same.

They are the same people, when the market comes roaring back, scream from the highest mountain about how the market is rigged, it's nothing but legalized gambling, it's a game that only the wealthy can win, etc..

At the end of the day, investors are their own worst enemy.

KPC

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
KPC,

I hope you're not implying that professional financial advisors are the only people capable of managing a successful portfolio, and that all investors are idiots who have no clue about handling their own portfolio.

I've met with a few financial advisors over the years. I've never came away from those meetings overly impressed, or feeling like I couldn't do without their services. Most of them spoke in vague terms, being careful not to provide specific direction, or information, until they got a financial commitment from me. Those that did speak opening and specifically didn't tell me anything I hadn't already learned on my own.

Don't get me wrong, I think you and Kyle provide a valuable service for a lot of investors, but I object to the notion that ALL investors need a advisor.

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Kevin,

"Why do you even bother Kyle?"

Because I want people to be successful with their money and to avoid the all-too-common mistakes most people make. It's been very gratifying to me over my 42+ years in the business to see how financially successful so many of the people who have been with me for thirty years or more have become, and how well they are continuing to do financially now that they are retired.

That's why!

"My biggest job is to prevent you from doing something stupid once your money is invested."

Same here. As you surely know, emotions and the band-wagon effect (more emotions) are by far the biggest reasons people do so poorly when it comes to investing.

As you also know, the cardinal rule in our business is that we are not allowed to make promises to clients about investment performance. Not EVER!

I say BS on that!

Two years ago I was asked to give a talk on ethics at a conference of our top producers in the Western US.

The person who presented immediately before me was one of our Compliance attorneys from our home office.

I based my presentation on how I incorporate ethics ('Cowboy Ethics' in particular) with the investment part of my practice.

Part way through my talk, I looked around the room and asked if that attorney was still present. She was, so I asked her to record what I was about to say or at least take notes.

Then I turned back to the audience and after noting the absolute prohibition we have re. making promises about investment performance, I said I didn't go down that route.

I said I PROMISE every potential investment client two thing about their investments:

#1. "From time to time the market is going make you irrationally exhuberent because your investments are doing so well. I PROMISE you that will happen. It's not my fault and I will have had nothing to do with it."

#2. "From time to time the market is going to scare the ever-loving daylights out of you! I PROMISE you that will happen. That's not my fault and I will have had nothing to do with that either!"

"Then I tell my potential clients, 'It's OK to feel those emotions, It's only natural to feel those emotions, simply because you're human. But it's NOT OK to act on them!' Not if you want to have me as your advisor!"

At the end of my talk, I got a rousing and raucus standing ovation. People where cheering and hollering out. At a freaking ETHICS talk! LOL

From: K Cummings
04-Feb-18
Of course I'm not implying that Matt. As a matter of fact, I said it's not rocket science. Some people don't need an auto mechanic, a lawyer, or carpenter either, but most do.

As to the part about an advisor not wanting to give you specific advise without a commitment from you, why would that surprise you? Do you give your services away for free? When you go to a lawyer, does he give you legal advice without you agreeing to pay him? How about your physician? Does he do all the diagnostic work for whatever is ailing you for free? Does your accountant do your tax returns for you with the understanding that you might pay him for his work or you might not? With all due respect, expecting them to do so is just plain ignorant.

Kyle may or may not agree, but in my opinion the most valuable part of dealing with an advisor is that he/she is NOT emotionally connected to your money. Nine out of 10 individuals do not have the ability make investment decisions based on logic and not emotion.

If you've done well over the years, good for you. I mean that. Whether or not you believe it, you are in the minority. I know some brilliant (literally) people in their fields that still don't understand the concept of spending less money than they make.

KPC

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Kevin,

There are likely a very few people who do do well in managing their own investments. Matt may well be one of them. If so, good on him!

OTOH, I would bet almost anything the number of people who think they have done well is a LOT smaller than those who actually have done well.

1. How many people who do-it-themselves know what their time-weighted, dollar-weighted average rate of return on their investments is? I would bet it's less than 1/10th of 1%. That's pretty sad, because that's the best way to evaluate returns over time. In fact, it's probably the ONLY way.

2. How many do-it-yourself people have any idea how they are doing relative to the amount of risk they are taking? I would suggest that number is very close to ZERO.

From: K Cummings
04-Feb-18
Looks like we were typing at the same time Kyle. I love helping people also, just not online with people who's only desire is to show how what I do is worthless. I learned early on in my 36 year career that not everyone I meet is going to be a client, nor should they be.

It's interesting that you said what you did about promises.

I tell my clients I can guarantee two things. One, is the market is going to rise and the other is that the market is going to fall. I just don't know when. Anyone who claims they do is either a liar or stupid.

Another thing I tell them is that in the good times I'm not nearly as smart as I seem, and in the bad times I'm not nearly as dumb as I seem either.

:)

KPC

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Kevin,

You and I are cut from the same cloth, it would seem.

I agree that there are people out there who just aren't a good fit for me, nor I for them.

The only marketing I've ever done has been to 'affinity' groups. I believe that when I have common interests and shared values with a potential client, the lines of communication open up much faster and the subsequent exchange of information is much better.

There are some people out there who I would not ever consider taking on.

George Soros could call me and tell me he wants me to manage $100,000,000 of his money for him and I'd tell him to get lost, even though the revenue I'd get each year would be well into six-figures.

Cowboy Ethics, Principle #9: "Remember, Some Things Are Not For Sale."

My integrity is one of those things.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
KPC,

Yes, perhaps I was ignorant to expect any “free” information from financial advisors. It just irritated me how they danced around my specific questions, instead of just saying “pay me and I’ll answer that”. So much so, I decided to learn the answers myself.

You're right, it's not rocket science.

Matt

From: K Cummings
04-Feb-18
You know Kyle, a lot of people end up being successful and at the end of the day, it's just dumb luck. My mother was one of them. Don't get me wrong, my parents were very smart about money, but lucky just the same.

My father died at the age of 52 and never reached retirement but for 20 years he worked for Johnson & Johnson. During those hears he received bonuses in company stock. Yes he was "smart" to take his bonuses in stock. We probably could have had a lot more toys and vacations but we did just fine. Over the years, he and my mother reinvested dividends, and with numerous splits, the value of the stock was in the millions. When my mother retired, she started living off the dividends and had a very good retirement until her death at 78 and passed the stock on to their 5 children

I only bring this up because while my mother might have appeared pretty smart financially, she was just plain lucky. Lucky that while 90% of her assets were in one company's stock, it worked out very well. Lucky that my father worked for J&J and not Enron, Kmart, Delphi, or a whole host of others. Had their stock been in one of those companies instead of J&J, she would have still been comfortable, but nowhere near the same. That's just plain luck. Had it been up to me, she would have diversified some of those assets but she would have no part of it. She was emotionally attached to that stock and no matter what, she would never have sold any of it. She was just plain lucky.

My share of her their J&J stock is still intact and still growing with reinvested dividends, but it represents a much smaller percentage of my overall portfolio. My kids will likely inherit the same J&J stock, and hopefully theirs will as well, and if I have any say in it, it will become worth more and more, but an increasingly smaller part of their portfolios.

KPC

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Kevin,

What your father did is a model others can learn from.

1. He got in.

2. He stayed in.

3. He didn't second-guess himself, nor make emotionally-based decisions.

4. The Time Value of Money is indeed the 8th Wonder of the World!

From: HA/KS
04-Feb-18

HA/KS's Link
There are many sources of great financial advice. Everyone is an expert when their play is working.

"Teen Bitcoin Millionaire Erik Finman Dishes Investment Tips"

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Re. Bitcoin and every other "Get Rich Quick" scheme:

"There's a sucker born every minute."

Just what everyone needs: Investment advice from a nineteen year old!

From: HA/KS
04-Feb-18
But, but, but, he turned $1,000 into 3 million oops 2 million err a million or $500?

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Here's an investment tip for ya'll:

There is an inverse correlation between the amount of hype you see from ads/articles/internet posts, etc. and the subsequent performance of whatever it is the hype is all about.

You are supposed to invest BEFORE stuff goes up, not AFTER it goes up. And NEVER invest in something that's 'Hot.'

From: HA/KS
04-Feb-18
My big problem with cryptocurrencies is that they have no intrinsic value, are controlled by nebulous (nefarious?) entities that cannot be investigated or corroborated, and are a net zero game that at some point will resemble a pyramid scheme where some "investors" get rich but most get taken.

In the end, they have the same value as they did in the beginning - zero.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
Ok, so far we have.....

1. Get in and stay in.

2. Don't make financial decisions based on emotion.

3. Invest before stuff goes up, not after.

Gee, who knew? Who do I write the check to for that advice? ;-)

Matt

From: HA/KS
04-Feb-18
"At the end of the day, investors are their own worst enemy."

"My biggest job is to prevent you from doing something stupid once your money is invested."

From: sleepyhunter
04-Feb-18
Yes get in a savings plan and stay in. It does pay off. Over the years I've seen so many co workers with 35 or 40 yrs company service and not have enough money to retire and being 65 yrs old or older. I don't plan on having that problem. I have taken the time to get advised for what it will take to retire at 62. I'm confident my plans will work out.

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
GG,

Yes, most people do!

Numerous studies show that investors absolutely suck when it comes to making the right decisions for the right reasons, then staying in.

The result? They get less than HALF the returns that the funds they invest in get.

You may well be the exception, but:

What is your time-weighted, dollar-weighted return over the past twenty or so years, and how does that compare to the basic indexes?

Then, what is your risk-adjusted rate of return over those same years?

Don't know, do you?

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
Kyle,

On the other hand, a motivated investor with half a brain could research the most successful mutual funds in numerous sectors, and determine exactly what companies those funds are invested in and what percentage of the fund was allocated to each company. Then, he could open a Scottrade account and purchase shares of those same companies in the same percentages. Thereby, creating his own mutual funds and eliminating the fees associated with brokers and advisors.

But then, who the hell would do that? ;-)

Matt

From: Trax
04-Feb-18
Yeah, that much is clear. The "advise" you can get from NVa you can get off a cereal box. This guy is probably like the guy who never loses at the casino. The only one over-reacting is you NVA, it would be like me saying you are nothing but a thief with a license. Now just how true is that? I'm dumb and you are a thief, we'll do it your way!

Being smart about historical market movements is not advocating running from and out of the market. Awareness is not fear, any "smart" and honest financial investor will tell you that. My retirement is on track if not set, but we're always looking for a bit more. Real estate purchases including a brownfield site and wooded acerage that I made in the '90's as a young man have been my best investments to date. But I am very active in the market. Buffett tells us to research our investments wisely and only buy good stock. And if you buy good stock why would you want to sell it? That is only part of the equation, especially so for we small players.

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Matt,

I'll take that to mean you don't know the answers and therefore want to avoid answering the questions.

From: K Cummings
04-Feb-18
"Gee, who knew?"

Apparently not many seeing the difference between the performance of the average growth mutual fund and the performance of the individual investors in same funds over the same time period.

KPC

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
Kyle,

What questions am I avoiding?

Matt

From: Keith
04-Feb-18
Speaking of Buffett, he offered and made a bet (for charity) for a $million that an active hedge fund trader could not beat an indexed S&P 500 fund over a time period of 10 years.

Buffett won.

I do however, believe if you have any amount of money before you retire and/or get into your 60's, you do need assistance with wading through the government tax rules and regulations about SSI and medicaid.

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Who cares about hedge fund traders?

Several active management fund managers have clobbered the S&P over the long run.

Destroyed the S&P!

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Matt,

Oh, PLEEZE!

The questions about your knowing your time weighted and dollar weighted rate of return, as well as your risk-rated returns.

From: Rocky
04-Feb-18
GG, Back up. Now you know more than the man whose profession is investments and money management with 40 yrs. experience?

Give me some time to think what you do know. Time is up.

The Rock

From: freeglee
04-Feb-18
How many will now have Less than before????? How many needless to suffer from this manipulation of markets?????

IMPEACH TRUMP NOWSSWWW!!!!!

From: freeglee
04-Feb-18
How many will now have Less than before????? How many needless to suffer from this manipulation of markets?????

IMPEACH TRUMP NOWSSWWW!!!!!

From: freeglee
04-Feb-18
How many will now have Less than before????? How many needless to suffer from this manipulation of markets?????

IMPEACH TRUMP NOWSSWWW!!!!!

From: Rocky
04-Feb-18
Hey, goofball. You must be the guy I seen weighing himself at a parking meter in Philly last week.

The Rock

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
Rocky,

Here's the deal.

I do not manage money. I simply hire those who do at the very highest level to manage my clients' money.

These men and women graduated high school at the top of their classes, then were admitted to the best universities, where they again graduated at the top of their classes.

As a result, they then went to the best B-schools, where they yet again garduated at the top of their classes.

At that point, they were hired by some of the biggest and best money management firms.

If and when they'd showed they were yet again at the top of their fields, they got hired by the money management firms I use.

These people then are surrounded by the best of the best technology and anaylists in the business.

So, you can either hire them to help you suceed, or, you can try to compete against them in your spare time.

Could it be any clearer than that?

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
The questions about your knowing your time weighted and dollar weighted rate of return, as well as your risk-rated returns.

Sorry I missed your edited posts. I was watching a football game. I can't answer your questions because I've never calculated the answers.

I can tell you that my hand-seleted mutual fund has outperformed my 5-star rated mutual funds thru T. Rowe Price.

Does that answer your questions?

From: NvaGvUp
04-Feb-18
No.

Not at all.

But the fact you don't even seem to know what I was asking pretty much proves my point.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Feb-18
For sure.

Thanks for playing.

Matt

From: kyrob
04-Feb-18
What would be 3 or 4 good questions a person should ask their advisers?

From: Irishman
04-Feb-18
The S&P 500 has been averaging about a 16% gain per year since the start of 2009, some years only 2%, others much more like 2013 32%. A great time to be a financial planner, you couldn't help but make lots of money for clients. I have friends that work as financial planners, but what has always puzzled me is, if they truly know what the market is going to do, wouldn't they be making so much money on their own investments that they wouldn't have to work?

From: Rocky
04-Feb-18
Kyle,

Go it.

The Rock

From: K Cummings
05-Feb-18
"I have friends that work as financial planners, but what has always puzzled me is, if they truly know what the market is going to do..."

Someone asked earlier what they should ask an advisor. In my opinion, this is a good place to start. If you are talking to an advisor that truly thinks he/she knows what the market is going to do, or more specifically when, you might want to keep looking.

"The S&P 500 has been averaging about a 16% gain per year since the start of 2009, some years only 2%, others much more like 2013 32%. A great time to be a financial planner, you couldn't help but make lots of money for clients."

I can't speak for others, but always felt that my job doesn't really start until the market tanks. It's not very hard to position assets to take advantage of good wave. Having them positioned correctly when the market goes the other way, and it will, is a different story.

KPC

From: Grey Ghost
05-Feb-18
What would be 3 or 4 good questions a person should ask their advisers?

1. How do you make your money? If the answer takes longer than 30 seconds, walk away.

Matt

From: Irishman
05-Feb-18
KPC, I totally agree with your response, and I'm sure that you do a great job. It's the protecting the assets when the market tanks that becomes a challenge.

From: Irishman
05-Feb-18
Like everything else in life, there is a lot of luck involved in timing. Let's say you retired in 2007, with $1 million, and you knew that historically the stock market had made 10% per year, you could think to yourself that you could live on $100k per year, and still keep your million. However, in 2008 the market tanks 40%, so you lose $400k, and you spend your $100k, so now you're down to $500k. Even if the market makes 15% each year after that you still go broke. I know these are not real numbers, I'm just making the point that there is a lot of luck involved in people's timing, and if you are someone, who needs to draw money to live on, then you have to protect against the market tanking. If you don't need the money, then sure you can let it ride out the fluctuations in the market, but if you retire at the wrong time, and need the money, you do have to be more cautious.

From: Grey Ghost
05-Feb-18
Not looking good again today. Currently the DJIA is down 1.8%. That's nearly 6% off the highs from a week ago. Easy come, easy go.

Matt

From: K Cummings
05-Feb-18
"Like everything else in life, there is a lot of luck involved in timing. Let's say you retired in 2007, with $1 million, and you knew that historically the stock market had made 10% per year, you could think to yourself that you could live on $100k per year, and still keep your million. However, in 2008 the market tanks 40%, so you lose $400k, and you spend your $100k, so now you're down to $500k. Even if the market makes 15% each year after that you still go broke. I know these are not real numbers, I'm just making the point that there is a lot of luck involved in people's timing, and if you are someone, who needs to draw money to live on, then you have to protect against the market tanking. If you don't need the money, then sure you can let it ride out the fluctuations in the market, but if you retire at the wrong time, and need the money, you do have to be more cautious. "

And therein lies the worth of a good advisor. That exact thing happened to a lot of people in 2008 and they never recovered and never will. To many it didn't, it just took proper planning. Historical averages don't mean much when a not so favorable sequence of returns messed you up. A few weeks difference can mean the difference between preserving and growing your income and assets and completely depleting them.

Quite frankly, anyone who claims they can time that is an idiot.

KPC

From: Grey Ghost
05-Feb-18
DOW down 2.13% now. Where are the bulls taking advantage of the "amazing buying opportunities?"

Matt

05-Feb-18
they have done very large studies of fund managers who try and time the market. Some funds try to do it....some purposely do not. the fund managers that time the market always underperform the fund managers to do not try and time the market. there is a lesson there for everyone.

From: BIG BEAR
05-Feb-18
I know the Bowsite is probably not the place to get financial advice.... but is there anything wrong with parking my money somewhere when I retire, where I can get say, 2 or 3 percent and a guarantee that my principal won't go down ?? I don't care if I don't have anything left to leave to my kids... they can make their own money......

From: Grey Ghost
05-Feb-18
Well, today was the single largest point drop for the DOW in its history. Over 1000 points. And 1600 points in 2 days. Completely erased all the gains for the year. Ouch.

Matt

From: buckhammer
05-Feb-18
time to add some more water to the soup and pick up some beer cans and pop bottles along the roadside.................its over

From: Squash
05-Feb-18
Some experts say this drop is all computer driven, have the machines taken over Wall Street ?

05-Feb-18
Big Bear, what you suggest in your last post is what people try and do with the bond market. Some bonds...like tbills for instance are essentially risk free....you just don't get much return on them today. Same thing with the money market......I made a ton of dough on the money market back in the 80's when interest rates were high....haven't made anything there in decades at this point.....but you know what....interest rates are going up!

05-Feb-18
DOW down 2.13% now. Where are the bulls taking advantage of the "amazing buying opportunities?"

putting an order in right now as a matter of fact.

From: Kodiak
05-Feb-18

Kodiak  's embedded Photo
Kodiak  's embedded Photo

From: gflight
05-Feb-18
Probably level out in a couple days, think I will buy a little tomorrow.

Looking forward to rising interest rates.....

Got 21% on a CD back in the day. There are many people have spent their whole life without seeing even 5% return on CD's.

Think it would be healthy to get away from our debtor society....

05-Feb-18
My wife's grandmother saved a small fortune putting her social security excess into CD's back in the 70's and 80s. That woman had a couple hundred grand in the bank at age 90 and done nothing but collect social security for close to 30 years. For sure a different generation.......that woman knew how to pinch a penny I can tell you that!

From: JTV
05-Feb-18
I knew this was coming... dosnt phase me one bit

From: Mint
05-Feb-18
I've been dollar cost averaging for the past year with some extra cash I had and I think I'll but some more mutual funds tomorrow. Glad I picked up that rental property in December and locked in at a 3.5% rate for the next 15 years. Like I said before, my friends and I tried to time the market and it never worked. A long time ago I decided to reposition my investing once a year if needed and that has worked out great for me. With my 401K everything goes into a index 500 fund since the expense rate is .36% while the managed funds are over 2% .

From: Sixby
05-Feb-18
Most of today was caused by the bots kicking in and auto sales. No limits and stopped at correction level and rebounded. Exactly as predicted but much quicker. I do not and no ones knows true bottom but we do have a good indicator. I thought 10 percent. It came real close but we may or may not see more. However with the E incicatore minus the VEX which i do not trust at all everything looks like a good future/ I bet some of the bottom buyers are high fiving it right about now. God bless, Steve

05-Feb-18

Ryan from Boone's embedded Photo
Ryan from Boone's embedded Photo
Well, this tweet from 2015 came back to bite him in the orange ass, eh?

From: bigeasygator
05-Feb-18
Come on, he didn’t really call it the Dow “Joans,” did he??

From: Grey Ghost
05-Feb-18
Classic Trump. His mouth is his worst enemy.

Matt

From: freeglee
05-Feb-18
5What an Buffoon he is!!!!!

IMPEACH the Bastard NOW!!!!!

From: Bentstick81
05-Feb-18
4K. FR66load73. What a moron. 8^)))

From: gflight
05-Feb-18
Fake News. Snopes you dopes...

From: Bentstick81
05-Feb-18
ryan from boone. I would go back to atheist. You seem to be a smarter when you do. Not much, but a little bit. 8^)))

From: TSI
05-Feb-18
Boone that’s a fake news article I believe .

05-Feb-18
I stand corrected, snopes did indeed call it a fake. Stand down men.

From: K Cummings
05-Feb-18
"Classic Trump. His mouth is his worst enemy."

Come on Matt, I wouldn't have expected you to fall for that crap.

KPC

From: freeglee
05-Feb-18
Its Real Donald McCheeto Speek straight to hell with snopes!!!!

FAKE???? FAKE???? FAKE???? IT IS THE REAL DEAL !!!!

Impeach Him!!!!!

From: gflight
05-Feb-18
Nervous breakdown much?

From: NvaGvUp
05-Feb-18
Irishman,

" .......if they truly know what the market is going to do, wouldn't they be making so much money on their own investments that they wouldn't have to work?"

You TOTALLY miss the point.

I have no idea what 'the market' is going to do tomorrow, next week, next month, nor next year.

And frankly, my dear, I don't give a damn.

Nor should you.

The fact that you do seem to care pretty much assures you of constantly making the wrong decisions at the wrong time and for the wrong reasons.

What I do know is that capitalism works and over time, if you invest on a regular basis and don't allow your emotions to cause you to make stupid decisions, in the end, you will become very well off financially.

I still work because I want to, not because I have to, and it's 100% the result of having been disciplined enough to invest every month, stay the course, and not let my emotions screw it all up.

I spent :30 on the phone this afternoon with one of the most respected CF'ers here. He's thinking about retiring and asked for my thoughts.

In the end, I doubt I'll make a penny from helping him, but I don't care.

Just the simple reward of helping him and his lovely wife reach and maintain their dreams for a great retirement is worth far more to me than money ever could be.

What I haven't put away in my 401(k) and my IRA, I've spent on hunts, custom suits, fine wines, nice cars and pick-em-up-trucks, duck clubs, and lots of 'stuff' I really didn't need and all the rest. Not to mention charitable contributions.

But my qualified plan accounts are now worth a few million dollars, which is more than I could ever have even dared to dream of.

Why?

Because I got in, I stayed in, and I never once let my emotions get in the way of rational thinking.

You, too, can do this!

From: JTV
05-Feb-18

JTV's Link
Blame it on the FED ... they will be the ones to crash the market ..

https://www.thestreet.com/story/14309564/1/federal-reserve-system.html

From: NvaGvUp
05-Feb-18
JTV,

Do you have any idea how many times the market has 'crashed' over the past 85 years?

It crashed because a of great depression, numerous recessions, the assasination of a president, a World War, The Korean War, The Vietnam War, the 'junk bond"/S&L crash, the Dotcom crash, the bursting of the housing bubble and a whole lot more.

Yet in spite of all those "the world is going to end" things, the market, as measured by the S&P 500, has gained an average of 10.9% per year!

CAPITALISM WORKS!!

PERIOD!

From: JTV
05-Feb-18
no arguments from me .....

From: Sixby
05-Feb-18
Quote Matt:Well, today was the single largest point drop for the DOW in its history. Over 1000 points. And 1600 points in 2 days. Completely erased all the gains for the year. Ouch. Matt

True. But then the dow is how much higher than the previous dumps? So Bro. Look at the percentages and you will feel better, 10 % for a couple of minutes max. Then back up. That is a normal correction percentage wise. But it was not a real correction because it was hit by the bots at -700 and ran to the bottom in a couple of minutes. If real sellers had been there the profiteering would have kicked in a lot quicker. It did remove some froth though. The only way anyone that was honest could blame Trump is that he made the economy too good, too , fast and people were worried that there was a bubble and did not know how far it would fall. However , economic stats do not lie and the economy is really strong. Job rates all time high, Jobless rates all time low or near full employment. Huge growth in new jobs and factories and businesses going on line or beginning to. Wages actually increasing. Taxes conducive to business venture and growth. Tax relief for the working class and mid America. Its truly amazing to watch Trump beating the growth drum and a box in the bottom of the screen showing the freefall. Like it was planned as a red flag. Then his speech was interupted by Shepherd Smith who ranted on Trump. Quite the accidental setup.

Ok to the removed all the gains of the last year. That is a direct quote from Shep. Look at how it really reads,. Erased the gains of the last month. That is honest. God bless, Steve

From: Grey Ghost
06-Feb-18
Sixby,

I guess reading comprehension isn't your strong suit. I said, "erased all the gains for the year". That means this year. And yes, I recognize it's only a month. If you look at the DOW's chart, it's actually more like 2 months of gains were lost.

Furthermore, I never blamed Trump for this correction. In fact, if you paid attention on other threads, you'd know I chuckle at Trump every time he takes credit for the economy or the markets. Administrative policy simply doesn't have that much influence, especially after just a year.

Lastly, I don't buy the "bot" theory you keep advancing. Yes, I know some investors use computerized safe-guards, but I don't think that's what caused today's fall, or the last week's worth of loses. I've been expecting this correction for a while and planned accordingly. I hope others did too, including you. I will also use this opportunity to buy more equities when things settle down.

Matt

06-Feb-18
This all just shows how predictable people are. The market has accelerated faster than anyone could possibly have imagined since Trump was elected.

Nobody expected the election to have that awesome of an outcome.

Nobody can predict how high the markets will go, and they are scared of losing 1/2 their worth...AGAIN. Honestly, who can blame them? So to protect themselves, they take some earnings and stuff it away into something a little more safe, thereby severely reducing their ability to take advantage of a downturn, with History repeated time and time again, and they will be sitting there wishing they had bought in right now because, quite frankly, I’m still not tired of winning.

Remember Joshua? “The Dow will never get to 21,000. It will never get to 22,000. 23,000 will never happen!!!” Kinda funny how their heads explode when presented with reality and a President that wants to do right BY US.

You all keep selling. I’m gonna keep on buying. Like Warren Buffet says “When everyone is greedy, be fearful. When everyone is fearful, be greedy”. Can’t argue with that philosophy, especially when he has a little bit of experience to back it up.

06-Feb-18
Those who were upset by Trump's continued success and getting tired of winning can relax and count their losses now!

Pete

06-Feb-18
Let it roll, there have always been ups and downs.

From: K Cummings
06-Feb-18

K Cummings's embedded Photo
K Cummings's embedded Photo
Perspective folks.

We would have to see an additional 2000 point drop, just to get back to where we were six months ago.

KPC

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
Here's a look back to Oct.19, 1987, otherwise known as 'Black Monday.'

From mid-September thru mid-October, the DOW dropped ~ 500 points, going from 2,747 to 2,256.

Then on Oct. 19, it plunged another 508 points to 1,748 in ONE DAY, which was a 22.5% drop.

That evening on the radio and TV, and in the morning papers on the 20th, all you'd read and hear were 'experts' who were predicting it would go to 1,500!

NO!, 1,000!

NO!, 500!!!!

Do you know what the bottom really was?

1,748!

By the Spring of 1988, the Dow had recovered all those losses and was back to a new high.

We saw exact same thing in 2001/2002 and in 2007 - early 2009. Both times, the market dropped an astonishing 50%!

And yet again, every guru out there was predicting things would get a LOT worse.

Only they didn't.

Since the market bottom on March 9, 2009, the market has risen over 400%, even after factoring in the fall we've experienced the past few days.

From: Sixby
06-Feb-18
Matt Quote:I guess reading comprehension isn't your strong suit. Very nice way to answer my real and accurate dialogue. Why not just call me an un-educated moron. Get your elitism off your chest and let everyone on here that is a true critical thinker see who you are. A devious, High minded man that sets himself above everyone but your little group of NVA and KPC. How dare you talk to a deplorable like me! Are you throwing crumbs to the starving dog. You are showing your ignorance. Definately a bot takeover and every legitimate economist has already declared so. It is literally impossible for human selling to continuously run the numbers at the rate of the fall from 700 to the bottom as fast as they went./ I watched it replay this morning and they moved so fast the eye could not keep up. Funny the so called breaker that was supposed to stop it never kicked in. Anyway with your mindset there is no legitimate conversation. So just keep on drinking whatever you lefties drink and keep on believing your own lies. It will turn and bite you on the posterior.

God bless, Steve

From: Grey Ghost
06-Feb-18
It's been kinda fun watching the markets today. First green, then red, then green, now red again. The charts look like a Christmas tree. I think calmer heads are starting to prevail.

Steve, you implied I misrepresented the losses, which I clearly didn't. So, my only conclusion was you didn't comprehend what I posted. Sorry if that ruffles your feathers.

Matt

From: Trax
06-Feb-18
One must be always aware and cautious but I will say in my opinion we are much more likely to see 30,000 than we are to see 20,000

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
Trax,

"........we are much more likely to see 30,000 than we are to see 20,000."

I'll take that one step further:

We may or may not see 20,000 again. But I guarantee you we will see 30,000 at some point and unless I go t!ts up in the next ten years or so, we are very likely to see 50,000 in my lifetime. If I simply make it to life expectancy, it is likely to be well north of 100,000.

To get to 30,000 requires just a 21.3% increase from where we are at this very moment.

To get to 50,000 requires just a 102% increase. So even if the market underperforms its' historical numbers by a significant amount over the next ten years, we'll still see 50,000.

From: Trax
06-Feb-18
I do like the sound of that. Ebb and flow until we see for whom the bell tolls.....

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
GG,

"The charts look like a Christmas tree. I think calmer heads are starting to prevail. "

It's been a weird day, but at least so far, with :45 left to go, we're seeing a significant rebound, esp. in the last :30.

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
Wow,

:15 to go and now there's been another huge jump to the upside.

From: Grey Ghost
06-Feb-18
I'm getting motion sickness from watching the tickers. Wild ride today.

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
GG,

Interesting day for sure.

It started with the futures being up a bit, then down a lot, which was repeated in the first hour. Then a bit of stability showed up until the last 1:15, when things were mostly up by a very nice amount.

I would suspect the market will open on the downside in the morning, simply because all of the panicked sell orders that were likely sent into mutual funds after the close yesterday.

Those cannot be executed until the close of the 'following business day,' meaning the freaked out and panicked average Joe simply lucked out from today's rise. But then again, that's what the average Joe does, and he/she does it EVERY SINGLE TIME! Only more often than not, he does not 'luck out' as he did today.

From: bigeasygator
06-Feb-18
Talk about a wild ride...go look at the VIX!

From: Grey Ghost
06-Feb-18
Kyle,

I will admit, I'm one of the investors who may have "lucked out" today. I moved about 10% of our IRAs from mutual funds into bonds this morning, early. I remain heavily weighted in stocks, just not to the extent I was. I figure I can always move it back in the next day or two, if things settle down a bit.

What's your opinion on variable annuities?

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
Matt,

VA's are a YUGE plus, IF they fit the potential person's goals, needs and objectives.

No other product I know of can guarantee a person's principal, guarantee his income (with the ability to increase his both his guaranteed principal and income as the market grows), not to mention protecting and even increasing what the investor's beneficiary wil receive upon the owner's demise.

My wife and I own VA's for precisely those reasons.

From: Grey Ghost
06-Feb-18
Kyle,

Yeah, the fees on VAs have always spooked me, but I guess the extra protection comes at a cost.

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
Matt,

Yes, there are fees because of all of the guarantees.

TANSTAAFL!

I don' t know how old you are, but a person 60 years old +/- a few years, can get a lifetime income, guaranteed, of 5% or more of his/her original deposit, plus a minimum of 5% growth or FMV if higher, until he/she decides to start the income steam (less withdrawals) obviously. That's a pretty good thing.

For the past several years, the Journal of the Financial Planning Assn.s' magazine has been running studies of what the minimum sustainable withdrawal rate is on a retiree's investment portfolio. These studies righfully use an absolutely worst case scenario re. investment returns and depending upon the author, that rate is 4% - 4.5%.

But when and if there is also a guaranteed income stream which is unaffected by the market (Defined Benefit Plan income, Social Security income, Annuity income, etc.), that rate jumps to ~ 6% or better, which not only provides a person with much greater income security, but also allows them to be more aggressive wih their other investments due to the guaranteed income they already have.

From: K Cummings
06-Feb-18
As Kyle said, VA's can be a very important part of a person's retirement portfolio, especially the closer one gets to retirement.

They are not the right fit for every situation (just like any other investment vehicle), nor are all VA's good. However, utilized properly, nothing else can do what a VA can do.

In my opinion, those who slam them simply don't understand them, and how they can be or should be utilized.

KPC

From: Grey Ghost
06-Feb-18
Kyle,

The wife and I are 57 and 55 respectively, so I have few more years before I can touch our IRAs. At that time, I'll probably do a portion in VAs for both of us.

Thanks for the education.

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
Matt,

If you have IRA's I would think they are self-directed IRAs', meaning you can do with them whatever you want.

VA's are generally started prior to retirement and while many of the guarantees are there, you don't have to turn on the income stream until you want to. You just let the values grow until you decide you want income.

In the interim, your income stream, when you do decide to start it, will generally be based on the greater of, the FMV of the contract value as of the latest anniversary of the contract date, OR, the initial contract value plus a 5% per annum guaranteed increase when determining the income value of the contract. If the annual return of the investments in the contract exceed the 5% threshold, then you'll 'lock in' that higher amount and the 5% will then be based on that higher amount, not the original and lower value.

Plus, if you are using non-qualified dollars to purchase the VA, when you decide to start receiving the income, only a small part of the income will be taxable because you'll be using 'annuity taxation rules,' even though you will not be actually technically choosing an annuity payout, as long as you select an annuity company which has an IRS Private Letter Ruling which allows for that.

Very cool!

From: Keith
06-Feb-18

Keith's Link
If you are interested, that 4% safe withdrawal rate is also confirmed by the "trinity study" done in 1998.

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
KPC,

"In my opinion, those who slam them simply don't understand them, and how they can be or should be utilized"

I'm thinking of one guy, a so-called 'investment professional' who advertises everywhere on the 'net that, "I hate annuities, and you should too."

That's not only incredibly unprofessional, but in my experience with him, it's also mainly because his firm cannot even begin to compete with what good annuities offer.

Sad.

A few years ago, I got a client (husband and wife, both VERY financially savvy people) here in Reno, who gave me ~ $550,000 to manage. The rest of their money was with this guy.

Two years later they called me to say they wanted to move ALL of the money they had with that guy to me, because, "You're giving us twice the returns with one-half of the risk."

I love it!

From: Grey Ghost
06-Feb-18
Kyle,

Yes, they are self-directed. It sounds like I should move on VAs sooner than later.

Thanks again. That was more information than I got from 2 initial meetings I had with advisors. They kept talking about "products" this and that, but never said exactly what product they were talking about. It didn't take me long to figure out it was VAs they were talking about, but I'm still wrapping my head around them.

Matt

From: K Cummings
06-Feb-18
Kyle:

You must be talking about FI?

KPC

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
Matt,

What I posted, for breveties sake, was only a part of what you would need to know.

That's mainly because everyone is different: different needs and wants, different assets, different understandings of how investments and markets work, different goals and objectives, etc.

Anyone who talks about products before they first completely understand who you are, what you have, what you need, and what you believe, is someone you should immediately walk out on.

I cannot possibly know what the best ideas, options, strategies and then (and only then) products for someone might be until I know all of those things and a LOT more.

Any other approach would be malpractice on my part.

Kyle

From: Michael
06-Feb-18
It sounds like I need to take a trip to Nevada or Michigan.

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
KPC,

Yep, that's the guy!

Actually, I've met him a couple of times at GOP fundraisers when I lived in the Bay Area.

OTOH, I don't write for Forbes, I don't advertise incessantly on the internet, nor do I crap on products and ideas I cannot compete with.

However, I am not a one-trick pony who only focuses on the largest of the large US companies. Instead, I prefer to select the best-of-the-best managers in a wide array of asset classes, then get to know and understand my clients personally.

Until I can do that, no way do I know what might be the best options for them.

From: NvaGvUp
06-Feb-18
Michael,

That's very kind of you.

But in reality, I would think either of us could serve you just as well with a few phone calls.

From: Annony Mouse
07-Feb-18

;o)

From: Sixby
08-Feb-18
Mouse, Nice to know that some can see. God bless, Steve

From: Grey Ghost
08-Feb-18
So now you are advancing the theory the correction was intentionally manufactured by people wishing to divert attention from the "memo"?

Good grief.

Matt

From: Anony Mouse
08-Feb-18
Matt...showing a distinct lack of humor. ;0)

Interesting to note that not one of the three Sunday papers I read had any mention of the memo at all, but much on the usual TDS meme.

From: K Cummings
08-Feb-18
Matt:

Now you know why I always say never, ever, ever, ever, NEVER, take investment advice from anyone on the internet.

KPC

From: HDE
08-Feb-18
"Its Real Donald McCheeto Speek straight to hell with snopes!!!! FAKE???? FAKE???? FAKE???? IT IS THE REAL DEAL !!!!

Impeach Him!!!!!"

For? Please state the high crimes and misdemeanors he is guilty of. And no, winning the White House and embarrassing the preferred princess ain't one of them...

From: Grey Ghost
08-Feb-18
The markets don't seem to know what direction they want to go. DOW down 540 points currently.

Matt

From: Grey Ghost
08-Feb-18
More panic selling. DOW down 767, now. I better stop watching before the "bots" kick in.

Matt

From: Trax
08-Feb-18
Hokie smokes in the crapper nearly 800 now.. A volatile ride I think we will have for a bit. Carl Ichan says these are just tremors, the earthquake is yet to come. Problem is following tremors the earthquake could be 5 months or 5 years or 25 years from now. I tend to listen to billionaire's. A correction more to the true definition is coming at some point, we are overdue. But in the long run I think things are looking very positive for this nation. For now.

From: gflight
08-Feb-18
Figured it would be leveling today....maybe tomorrow.

From: Trax
08-Feb-18
over a 1000. On the way to a true correction by definition???

From: Buckiller
08-Feb-18
I wouldn’t worry too much about the market. It needed some sensibility. My opinion: get ready for 30,000 by 2020. It needs slower growth.

From: bluedog
08-Feb-18
Matt (Grey Ghost), Check your PM. Thanks.

From: JTV
08-Feb-18

JTV's Link
I dont worry about the market.... I hope I still have sometime left to leave my stuff there

anyways.... Jim Cramer blames it on MORONS who dont know what they are doing within the stock market .. Link

From: Grey Ghost
08-Feb-18
Dan,

Great to hear from you, brother. PM sent.

Matt

From: Sixby
09-Feb-18
The end of the first drop made a declaration. Red Flag and a huge one. We are in a war whether you know it or not. It does not have to be a shooting war. It is controlled by powers, principalities and spiritual wickedness in high places. Most of you have no clue as to what is happening. One step foreward and all Hell breaks loose. The adversary declared himself and no one even saw it. God bless, Steve

From: Tiger-Eye
09-Feb-18
Do tell Sixby...Why so cryptic?

I think there is a lot of computer generated selling / buying going on in addition to a lot of folks panicking or trying to time the market. +/- 1% and 2% swings each way within the same day?? Really tells me its emotions at play not sound monetary decisions.

My play is HOLD.. let the market flush out the idiots.

From: Grey Ghost
09-Feb-18
Sounds like Sixby he needs a little beach time, too.

BB, I'm gonna get a lot of mileage out of your hilarious post.

;-)

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
09-Feb-18

From: Sixby
11-Feb-18
You better hope I'm wrong.

From: TGbow
11-Feb-18
If the government would get the heck out of the way the economy will take care of itself...I say dismantle the Federal Reserve will they at it.

From: K Cummings
11-Feb-18
"You better hope I'm wrong."

Wrong about what? A week ago you said the following:

"Nothing more than a super strong economy along with a light raise in interest rates, stronger bond market and more than anything else profit taking to pay for the increase in salarys and wages and bonuses to employees. All is great. getting better rapidly and I see a stock market in the near future of perhaps as much as 30,000."

Then a couple days later you said the following:

"Most of today was caused by the bots kicking in and auto sales. No limits and stopped at correction level and rebounded. Exactly as predicted but much quicker. I do not and no ones knows true bottom but we do have a good indicator. I thought 10 percent. It came real close but we may or may not see more. However with the E incicatore minus the VEX which i do not trust at all everything looks like a good future/ I bet some of the bottom buyers are high fiving it right about now."

Now, in less than a week, we are in a war with some sort of nefarious entity that seeks to own the world:

"The end of the first drop made a declaration. Red Flag and a huge one. We are in a war whether you know it or not. It does not have to be a shooting war. It is controlled by powers, principalities and spiritual wickedness in high places. Most of you have no clue as to what is happening. One step foreward and all Hell breaks loose. The adversary declared himself and no one even saw it."

and...

"One family owns 75 percent of the worlds monetary value. They own countrys literally and almost all of the banking including the major banks in this country. One family. They control and buy heads of state and have no scruples or morality. The control sex trade , slavery and only one person in this world actually scares them because he is bent on taking them down. He has already taken their complete control of the USA away from them. It is why we have to pray for our president , his safety and the safety of most that he has around him. If you do not know who to fight against and what to fight against then you need to pay some attention and stop the tin foil garbage because its not garbage. Investigate it and learn for yourself."

So what is it, a normal market correction or a matter of the "one family that owns 75 percent of the worlds monetary value" declaring war?

Nobody needs to argue with you Sixby, you do a fine job of arguing with yourself.

KPC

From: Sixby
11-Feb-18
KPC. In the order you give I was learning. When I see something differently I do not hardheadedly stick to what I said before. Taken in order all those things are harmonious. Not argueing with myself just learning more about the situation. I freely admit that I may change my mind again as things change.

God bless, Steve

From: NvaGvUp
11-Feb-18
But, but, but,

75% of the world's assets are owned by the Rothchilds, are they not?

From: K Cummings
12-Feb-18
Wow Sixby, I must say you've sure learned a lot in 2 days.

You've been all over the map with this for at least a decade. I have a pretty good memory, especially when it comes to things relating to my profession.

I specifically remember having this conversation a decade ago when the DJIA fell to 6500. The same naysayers (including and especially you) were saying, among other things, that it was all over, it's different this time, better get out now before it goes to zero, the market will never recover, it's all a racket, it's all rigged by the uber wealthy, this is the new normal, the only thing worth investing in is gold and ammo, etc., etc., etc..

The DJIA quadrupled since that point is now experiencing a much needed and much expected correction. Now we are supposed to believe that we are at war with one family that controls 75% of the worlds assets.

Yes, people learn new things, however going from...

" All is great. getting better rapidly and I see a stock market in the near future of perhaps as much as 30,000."

to...

"We are in a war whether you know it or not. It does not have to be a shooting war. It is controlled by powers, principalities and spiritual wickedness in high places. Most of you have no clue as to what is happening. One step foreward and all Hell breaks loose. The adversary declared himself and no one even saw it."

...in a matter of 48 - 72 hours is not "learning," it's lunacy.

KPC

From: Grey Ghost
12-Feb-18
KPC, I'd call it schizophrenia.

Matt

From: sleepyhunter
12-Feb-18
My stocks have gone down a few points, I'm not to concerned about it. What got my attention is my 2 Vanguard accts went down a bit more. In the end, all my accts are still way up from where they were before Trump took office.

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