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Charles Alsheimer rut Predictions???
I was planning to hunt Illinois Nov.4 thru 12, My favorite days have been Nov.7,8,9. Alshiemer says the autumn equinox is Nov.13 compared to Oct.26 last year which will result in later than normal rutting activity, seeking phase 2 to 3 days before the full moon, and the chase phase ramping up by the 17th or the 18th. Are his theories full of crap or is it worth switching my dates?
My opinion, don't switch your dates. I've met Charlie Alsheimer, heard him speak on various occasions and you can't argue with the whitetail experience he brings to the table. I hunt in central Pennsylvania, and I've seen his predictions and yearly recaps clash with the rut activity I experienced first hand. I'm a long time D & DH reader, and I've seen John Ozoga column's (research editor) politely disagreeing with some of the common moon-phase research put forth by 'others'. I've booked my vacation the first week of November as always, and I'll pray for high pressure and cold weather.
nov 4-12th i dont care what anyone says these are the days to be in the woods
My vacation is the first 2 weeks of November...... I think I'll be okay !!!!! It's always good then. I respect Charles, but I have seen him be wrong in my area... I'm hoping this year is the same.
Be in a tree November 4th - 15th and you will be into the big ones.
Last week in October ain't bad either.......
his predictions dont work for alabama considering our rut is usually Jan 8th or later. One year it was end of January to first of February back a few years ago. Which is great cuz I get to hunt 2 ruts... the early one in Georgia and ours in Bama.
what was the rut 8 yrs ago and you will be very close to being right on top of it
I've read Charles book and watched his show and some years his predictions are on and some they are not. There could be reasons for this, mostly hunting pressure and warm temperatures, what Charles describes as rut suppressors. Too many other variables factor in such as doe to buck ratio, to be as precise on the days what is seeking, chasing, and breeding. I believe what he says about the rut timing and the bucks and does being synchronized as far as Bucks testosterone peak and the does coming into estrous. As far as the 4th - 12th, those should be pretty good days especially if the weather is cooler than normal. According to the farmers almanac the weather is suppossed to get cold in October this year.
I gave up on rut predictions several years back.
I have assisted some managers on public and private property in Oklahoma. According to fetal measurements as well as birthing dates most does in Oklahoma are bred within a couple days of Nov 12 - every year.
The biggest variable is not the moon but weather.
This puts the chasing phase in the end of October through the first week on Nov. The breeding in the second week of Nov, and then the pleading phase the third week through the 1st of Dec. At least here.
Actually Charles Alsheimer says that his research and the rut being triggered off the 2nd full moon after the fall equinox applies to the 38th parallel ( I think)and north.
What it boils down to for is this, I am very fortunate to live in the middle of great deer country, 15 miles from a second state which I hunt, and 30 miles from a third state which I haven't taken advantage of yet. My work schedule permits me to hunt almost every evening (wife permitting), if its November, I'm in the woods.
I predict the rut will be the same time it is every year whether the moon comes out or not. Used to believe in the moon game but I kinda think it's crap now. Be in the tree Oct. 20th to Nov. 20th is my best advice.
11-1 thru 11-15 for me this year.
I'm going to be in north central Illinois from Oct 25-31. Any ideas how the hunting will be for those dates?
Decoy, horns, and a snort weeze mq man.
I'll give you one to think about... I've noticed that the deer up north tend to rut in direct relationship to the weather the following spring. I know it sounds crazy but I've watched it for over 10 years and when we have a late rut I can tell you that the spring will be unusually cold and damp - and an early rut will tell me the spring will bring early warm/dry weather. This trend has been amazingly accurate. I believe mother nature know more than she's telling. This may not help to predict the rut but it helps tell you when to plant the peas! Check it out in your area.
Brad: Since we starting using the modern solar calendar (back in the 1750's,) the Autumn Equinox has always been September 21 or 22. What I think you meant is that the Full Moon is Nov. 13 this year and a Full Moon occurred in October last year on Oct. 26.
The Autumn Equinox is Sept. 22 this year.
Last year, the rut occurred about 10 days after the Full Moon, putting it at Nov. 5. However, because the Full Moon in October (which actually sets the whitetail's breeding clock) is 10 days earlier this year than it was last year, then there should be an explosion of chasing in the last week of October.
So I would change my hunt dates.
I think you are going to hit it during the lull this year.
This year is very similar to the 2005 season when the Full Moon was October 17. The rut here in Western New York (42 parallel) in 2005 occurred Oct. 27. My buddies thought I was crazy back then when I predicted it, but they saw the rutting activity from their treestands - and I don't let them forget it ;0). And that year, the first week of November was dead (the bucks were resting or hooked up.)
Now it's your money, and it is only my two cents worth. 'Course a good way to check it is do a little research on this website of rutting activity in the first week of November in 2005.
As my notes indicate whitetail movement was in shutdown mode during the first week of Nov. '05.
Now some guys (like me) hunt every day anyway, so it doesn't matter (I arrowed my first buck in 1971.) But you are spending your money and time and need to know the right week. You asked. Good Luck!
Predicting whitetails are the first problem we face....they are unpredictable and thats how I like it.....
we can see there patterns but it doesnt mean they will always do what we think they will....
Nov is a great month, go at it.....basically who knows when the big one will come in...it might be in oct.
i dont pay attention to the moon to much...just my Opinion.
Listen to Buckstopshere!!! I can tell you first hand he has been DEAD ON the past two years!!
Buckstopshere- When is the BEST week to be in the woods this year??
october 25th through 31st i will agree with buckstopshere lockdown 1st through 10th of nov game on again 11th through 20th of nov
Well, it depends on where you are hunting. If you are hunting in the Northeast and eastern side of the Midwest, the rut (defined as the crazy few days when all the chasing is going on) as Split-Toe says, Oct. 25th to Nov. 1. However, if you are hunting on the Western side of Minn. and up into Alberta, it would be later, likewise with much of the south, which is a month later (includes the panhandle and Northern Tex. - while the tip of Tex that goes into Mexico is Two months later than ours. And there are other areas too with different peak rut times.
One other factor is that if you are hunting in a high fence area or an area where the stock have been brought in from another area, the breeding patterns of those deer will be timed by where they are from, not where they are.
However, all is not lost during the first week of Nov. - don't bum out. After all, the deer are still there. ;0) But you must change your tactics. Stands that are hotter than a pistol during that last week of October may very well be dead the following week - this year, in the Northeast.
"I predict the rut will be the same time it is every year whether the moon comes out or not. Used to believe in the moon game but I kinda think it's crap now. Be in the tree Oct. 20th to Nov. 20th is my best advice"
Ditto, with one exception, you missed the best week. The week of thanksgiving.
I love how you guys get so specific. I will be in Illinois the 14th-19th. Hope it is good.
He is one of the only guys in wildlife science left that still holds to the idea that moon phase determines the rut...
THE RUT SHOULD FALL BETWEEN THE 15-20 THIS YEAR BUT YOU WANT TO BE HERE ABOUT THE 5TH THROUGH 13TH TO FIND THE BIG BOYS CRUISEN AND BRING A DECOY WITH YOU!!I DONT KNOW WHAT COUNTY YOUR GOING TO BUT I'M IN SOUTH CENTRAL IL AND THATS WHAT I'M BANKING ON.
forget the moon-just hunt!
Don't follow that stuff much. Big deer are killed every day of the season. More hunters choose their vacation and hunting time around the supposed rut dates. Therefore more deer killed during these times. I can guarantee you one thing. If you are not in the woods you will not kill a deer. Go early, Stay all day, happy hunting.
For me I'll be in south central Illinois from October 24 to the November 11th then back home to Pa where I'll finish up Pa's rut. Good luck to all of ya and keep safe.