Contributors to this thread:
Scoot, draw odds are usually released in June. NR & R data hasn't been separated in the past.
Ya well after their raping of point holders this year I'm sure they are rethinking their enthusiasm for posting separated odds for R & NR's.
After allowing everyone a chance to draw a tag, I'll bet they aren't rethinking their enthusiasm for posting separated odds for R & NR's.
I'm going to go out on a limb and guess you weren't one of those that got raped of 15 years wait and money.
Don't like it vote with your money and apply elsewhere.
I'm going to guess that you aren't an up and comer that would like to have a chance at a tag before they are too old to hunt it...
The new format draw odds report has been on the radar for a cpl years now. With point guard now implemented it may move up the priority list. It was initially going to be ready for the 2015 draw.
Last I was told, the format looks similar to the current report but has res and nr columns.
Scoot; "Correct me if I'm wrong here-- those who expected to draw this year and didn't (because of the change) will simply have to wait one or two years to draw the tag they expected to draw this year. Is that true?"
It will be interesting to find out what the case is.
Just like anything with these highly desirable units that give out very few tags that just don't wash enough Non Res hunters through the system fast enough....those are going to be much worse.
So a unit like 9 in Az for elk which gives out a max of appx 10 tags to non res hunter....it was at about 17 points max pool draw a year ago....could be 19 now. Its hard to fathom that guys are waiting 20 years for elk.
Now take a look at a guy that starts applying this year, for instance a kid that just became of age to start hunting. With the previous system that kid will never even have a chance to experience something like unit 9 in AZ as the system will never be flushed. Additionally, the age class of hunters on that hunt will incrementally increase. This is the bed that Colorado has made, especially for the NW corner of the state that is now at 22. I have applied since I was able and based on the current trajectory will not draw until I am passed 50 and have about 38 points.
I commend AZ for making a change and distributing some opportunity across the draw pool. Colorado's current excuse is that it will piss off people with 20 years invested. Yes that is true, but the situation will only get worse as the 20+ year investment group grows and you thought the upper end was mad at 20 points wait until they have 30+.
Haven't followed Arizona but it sounds like they now have a system similar to Utah.
Had a co-worker tell me he was close to a Utah San Juan tag with 18 points. I did the math and showed him unless he is lucky, he won't even be in the BONUS POINT POOL until 2036! Even at that time when he has 38 POINTS, he'll only have a 12.5% chance at a tag.
Felt bad pissing on the parade but at least I didn't tell him it was rain.
Any preference point system where demand greatly outweighs supply is inherently broken from the get-go. All they do is give an unfair amount of tags to a subset of people who were fortunate enough to be alive, hunting, and applying when the system was put in place and screws everyone that comes after them.
IMO, Zim got screwed when they created the system with poor foresight, not when they changed it. All these poorly designed systems are bound to be changed at some point when it gets to the point when only 70-80 year olds are hunting these animals.
CO's system (elk) is the most broken and ridiculous of them all. (Partially because it has no random pool, but mainly because it was one of the first to be put in place. The longer these are around, the worse they are.)
The fact of the matter is that many of the western point systems (preference point specifically) in any given year after 2000, preside over a heavy allocation of tags to people born between 1945 and 1965. Any group of people born in any section of time thereafter, will never again have preferred access to tags for essentially their entire adult lives like this group of people do/will, until these systems are changed.
In California, a small group of hunters will have a 1 in 100ish odds of drawing a sheep tag yearly for their entire lives while everyone that comes after them will live their entire life with 1 in 500-1000ish odds until they are at the very end of their lives. That's not "waiting your turn." That's giving a small subset of CA's sportsmen a huge advantage.
The Arizona system where they allocate tags to the general draw is the way to go....but to be completely fair they should have allocated more possible non res tags. So for example, 5% to max pool....but then 10% to the general draw. Residents have a shot at these gen tags anyway.
Right now Az is essentially flipping the bird to non res.......when they are paying an inordinate amount to help keep their system afloat.
Beendare, not trying to give you guff but could you define inordinate in this context? Things may have changed a bunch since I got my numbers last, but resident tag fees accounted for around 70% of the fund, with 30% being attributed to NR the last time I looked into this. Keep in mind we draw at least 90% of the tags and pay more for resident elk tags than pretty much all the other states. I'm honestly not aware of a state where residents pay more, maybe Nevada. We certainly are not charging non-residents almost a grand and selling residents tags for like $12 like a state way up north. We have been consistently around 5:1 on pretty much all species including elk. I don't think it is all that unreasonable when you look at all the numbers.
Up to 10% is a more natural way to draw. Explain to me why you feel Arizona should "subsidize" the draw odds for NR's who are smart enough to pick units other than the most popular ones. If NR draw pressure and preference was sufficient in those units they would draw the 10%, just like the most desirable. They don't reach 10% because Resident draw preferences are much, much greater in relation to NR's in those units. This is why I fully support the up to language. You guys are shooting yourselves in the foot by not applying for those units at sufficient proportions to your potential. We can argue about the percentage for arguments sake, but I am firm on the "up to" language.
I don't think it's 5:1 anymore when you look at what it costs to apply and gain points. The NR AZ tag is cheap compared to what you have to spend in order to draw the tag. Even if you're lucky enough to pull a tag in 5 years as a NR, you are still looking at $800+ in applications to get there, and another $600 for the tag for a grand total of $1,400.00. For most, it will take at least 10 years to draw a tag, bringing the total to $2,200.00 for your elk tag.
I'm not complaining, just pointing out the reality of trying to hunt AZ as a nonresident.
I would like to have a good chance to draw some of those better tags each year myself. But honestly, using Colorado as example, I believe that a person who has been wanting to hunt in unit 2, and has been applying for 20 years, should have preference to hunt, over someone who is just now becoming eligible to apply, or someone who did not hunt, or apply out of state, until recently. On the surface it isn't fair, but how is it fair for a person to patiently apply for any tag, for 10, 15, 20, or even 30 years, just to have a person who just picked up hunting last year, swoop in and draw that tag. Is that fair?
The bottomline is, no matter how you twist and change it, someone is always going to get the short end of the stick. The key is to try to hurt the fewest, the least amount.
I have been hunting all over the country for the last 25 years. And I started at a time when very few in my area hunted out of state. Sure there were a few, but just a few. And those few, were pretty much limited to Colorado, and maybe South Carolina, or Georgia. However, now it is common when talking to other hunters to find they are applying and hunting in numerous states. Beyond that fact, there seems to be significantly more hunters today that are more serious about differing species and destinations, than ever before.
I wish there was a right answer, but I don't believe there is.
NoWiser the rules are the same up until the part where you guys hit a 10% cap. We have to buy a license and pay for points as well. Yes you pay more. My combo license is $57 that I have to buy every year to apply. Yours is $160 = < 3:1. App fees 15:13, almost 1:1. We also probably pay for a lot more app fees and tags year after year than NR's which is why I don't buy the NR "inordinate amount" argument. Add all the cow tags, turkey tags, bear tags, lion tags, javelina tags, etc. that non-residents rarely ever buy and you can see were I'm coming from. It's not all about bull elk in Arizona if you live here. I buy a javelina and deer tag every year whether I hunt or not. That's in addition to the deer tag I might get drawn for so that's two tag fees for one species a lot of years. How many NR's are doing that? I'd venture to guess the majority of NR apps come for elk with a lesser degree deer, and then sheep even less so.
Heat, in a way you're proving his point. The average NR paying for a hunting lic, is doing it for a chance at elk. If there were no elk in AZ whatsoever, you would probably still be buying a hunting lic to hunt deer and whatever else. Your $57 lic could essentially be split up to partly be for everything you're hunting, making the the elk portion of it paltry in comparison to $160.
Still, I agree with your premise. I think that AZ's fee schedule and tag allocation is completely fair - as is their draw system now that they've changed it.
And FWIW, CA resident elk tags cost >$400 for both cows/bulls and go up every year.
Good profit for preference points. Sell something that doesn't exist except on paper or cyber space. How would you come out if you put the money for nonresident points in savings and used it for a quality guided hunt or trespass fee?
Bud AZ has Bonus Points not preference points and there are no private land tags other than the Indian Reservations.
Bud, I have in fact looked at this. If I apply for 20 years in AZ and pay the $650 license fee I come up with roughly $3,850 in tag cost. How many outfitters/guided hunts of similar quality to a unit 9 AZ hunt can I get for under $4,000?
Good points guys. I understand.
"Zim, I think I understand what changes they made and the general implications for them. Correct me if I'm wrong here-- those who expected to draw this year and didn't (because of the change) will simply have to wait one or two years to draw the tag they expected to draw this year. Is that true? Or will the additional wait times be much longer?"
Hahaha. I certainly wish. Something like that would be reasonable. Perhaps a 25/75 split. But at 50/50 and so few premium & mid tier units, it will tack on 10 years on average for the 15+ point holders. It all depends on which hunt a guy was targeting. In my case I'd have been near guaranteed a unit 1 archery elk tag this year. Instead I'd need to wait 10 years more. I did the math. I am 56 and just got a pacemaker. I don't know what physical condition I'll be in ten year so I have no choice but to bail with the hundreds of other guys between 15-20 points.
"If I apply for 20 years in AZ and pay the $650 license fee I come up with roughly $3,850 in tag cost."
And, there's always the chance you could draw it in the random portion of the draw in much fewer than 20 years (now, even for NR's).
I definitely think it was a change that needed to be made for NR's. It probably did hurt those that have applied for many years, but it was something that couldn't be helped. It was only getting worse, and no other state is addressing the issue.
I suggest any point system be capped at 20 points. A kid just turning legal age to apply is at a disadvantage for 20 years but then has caught up to be in the max pool. Anyone in the max pool has an advantage over anyone who began to build points in the prior 20 years either because was a kid or was someone who drew a tag and went to the end of the line.
When demand exceeds supply of tags, someone will be unlucky not just this year but their entire lives when is a coveted tag.
Will be silly when is only 90 year olds drawing a primo elk tag in a place like Colorado. On the plus side, perhaps 70 year olds will bail on holding out for that top tag and hunt a lesser unit after waiting a few decades. Is morbid to see more of the max pool die then fall out after 2 years of not applying than actually draw a tag.
"I definitely think it was a change that needed to be made for NR's. It probably did hurt those that have applied for many years, but it was something that couldn't be helped. It was only getting worse, and no other state is addressing the issue."
Probably??? Couldn't be helped?
If they admit they made a mistake when they orchestrated their tag scheme, why not reimburse those that they chose to hose? Take half our point value.......reimburse half we paid in the last 20 years. That would be a good START.
No other state is addressing the issue??? I've been applying in twelve states. During the last 15 years all but one threw their invested sportsmen under the bus by cheapening their points, one way or another. This includes ALL the western states I applied in. Seems all these states "addressed" some of the "issue". If this is the grand solution why not just go ahead and completely zero out everyone's points?
How would you propose reimbursing them, and do you think those that are that close to drawing a tag would actually take the reimbursement?
Believe me, I'm not trying to defend Arizona G&F at all, not a fan. I'm just asking.
Has anyone ever read the fine print of any states preference system? Serious question. Do they give or even imply that the current system will never be changed? Do they outline a method or process for change?
You pays your money and you takes your chances.
A bit of history to the AZ system. When the current high point holders started investing in AZ points, there was no "bonus pass" that allocated 20% of the tags to the highest point holders. At the time us high point holders started, there was only the 1-2 pass, where it was a pure bonus point system.
About 8 years ago, AZ decided to give high point holders a bone and started the "bonus pass" where 20% of the tags were put in a special drawing for the highest points holders and that drawing was conducted before the lower point holders were even considered. I never heard anyone thank AZ G&F for that huge benefit to high point holders, when that was enacted.
Fact is this. If you have more than 10 points, you started in the AZ system before the "bonus pass" program was even started. You started your investment without the huge benefit the "bonus pass" would provide you in future years.
To now complain as though you are getting screwed as a result of AZ G&F scaling back a system that wasn't even around when us high point holders started investing in AZ points seems rather disingenuous. Even with the scaling back of the non-resident limits on the "bonus pass round from 10% to 5% for NRs, it is still a way better deal for us high point holders than what we thought we were getting at the time we started investing in the AZ point system.
Even if they got rid of the bonus pass round all together, us in the high point totals would be back to the same playing field we thought was a worthwhile investment when we decided to jump into the AZ point game; in my case back in 1997.
The kicker, and what you left out, comes in where those of us targeting a specific unit, like we were, had zero (0.00%) chance of drawing during our last 10 years of waiting. We were willing to sacrifice that chance since we knew we'd draw in 2016. If we had known we'd get totally hosed this year we'd never have been applying for unit 1 even one time. We'd have known we were wasting our time. But that didn't happen. We didn't even get one year's notice to adjust. Just hosed out of nowhere. I can tell you right now there's no way in hell we'd been waiting for 1. We would have applied for unit 7, 8, 3A/C 1st choice, unit 6A second choice EVERY YEAR for the last 10. And we would have drawn a couple times over that 10 years. That would have been fine. But instead we just wasted those 10 years and are stuck with hundreds of other hosed guys who will be grasping at straws for something to do with their grossly devalued points, while some teenager walks off with our tag in their pocket. The worst of both worlds. At minimum, AZF&G should reimburse our license & application fees for the last 10 years. Of course that wouldn't even cover the most costly part........TIME. No price can be put on that loss. And those of us with high points have the least of that commodity. If someone in private industry tried this business tactic they'd be thrown in jail for bait-n-switching. That is a fact, not an opinion.
http://statelaws.findlaw.com/arizona-law/arizona-deceptive-trade-practices-laws.html
Using that logic, AZ G&F broke the law when they went to the bonus pass in the first place and screwed lower point holders from having any chance at all the higher demand units.
Apparently there is no "law" when it comes to these point Ponzi schemes. Since that's the case makes me wonder why every state doesn't just sheetcan everyone's points, keep all the money, and start from scratch with a random draw. Why not screw everyone, rather than just the oldest, most invested sportsmen who have waited the longest and paid the most?
I say this all the time; "Big Fin for President" :-)
You guys sure do complain a lot. Glad I've always been a second tier kinda guy. You don't have to hunt the premier units to kill a good bull. In fact, I killed this bull in one rated "poor" by all the "experts". I doubt I will ever have a more fun, high quality, or action packed two weeks of elk hunting in my life. Glad I didn't wait for the golden ticket.
"But that didn't happen. We didn't even get one year's notice to adjust."
I posted the info on 4 different forums in early March 2014 to give you guys a heads up.
I also took a 330" bull in 2011 with my bow in a unit listed as poor. That is irrelevant. This is about honesty, fair business practice, time, & money.
There are internet rumors every year about every state. Heck WY moose pref/bonus split going from 25/75 to 50/50 has floated around for 5 years. That's why I cashed in and got out. AZF&G officially said nothing and did nothing.
I posted the Commission Meeting Minutes showing the new rule proposal, which you commented on. That's as official as it can get until they're passed and signed off.
If you jump out and it doesn't pass, yea, you feel like a chump. The flip side is, you wait for it to pass and then you're stuck with nowhere to go.
Yes you did WB and I, for one, would like to thank you. I used my points for a lesser unit but I still had a great time and made some great memories.
Wapiti Bob, That didn't matter in time for me because my tag was not a lock until this year, and the step down from my unit would have been to 27 with the early hunt dates. Big step down. They should have phased this huge of a rule hosing in over a 3 year minimum span, which is what I wrote in my letter to the game commission. I'm sure they didn't even bother reading it though!
Zim, Sorry that you were one of the guys caught in the in the cusp of this very necessary rule change. I'm sitting on 13 points so i'm not exactly a newbie and I fully support it. Obviously, the rules were never intended to make it a full out preference system but time and math resulted in max point NRs drawing all of the available tags. I agree that they should have implemented the change differently to soften the blow but it didn't work out that way. You still have a great chance to draw a really nice tag so good luck man and try to make some lemonade out of the lemons.
Yup, I remember Bob warning all of us two years ago. If you had the points back then to draw a mid-tier unit and still have them now, you only have yourself to blame.
I'm shooting for a "poor" unit in a few years and cannot wait!
The strategy to wait over a decade to get to the front of the deadline is always risky. I prefer to hunt more often than hold out since I have read the horror stories of hunters that finally draw that coveted primo tag after waiting 10 or 20 or more years yet that year is when the Feds shut down in a budget battle so close access to public lands, a fire breaks out closing access or changing the animal pattern, winter kill happens, rainfall is not sufficient to enable even average antler growth, a leg breaks, a family member gets sick, there is a layoff, some private land owner closes off access to BLM, forest roads are permanently closed, a flood happens, a spike hunt is added overlapping the trophy season, temperatures are abnormally hot so the rut is nocturnal, a blizzard cool in on opening morning, on and on.
I do not trust government to play "fair" with me when it comes to allocating tags for a species where demand exceeds supply and I and a non-resident. I am glad I get a chance at tags in most states as a non-resident. A small chance in some. Other states give me zero chance so I will never hunt sheep in the Dakotas, for example.
I roll the dice. I often lose because the game is a crappy one. Is the only game in town, though, I prefer to play.
"Yup, I remember Bob warning all of us two years ago. If you had the points back then to draw a mid-tier unit and still have them now, you only have yourself to blame."
This is comical. Yup, Bob off the internet was the key savior to the whole hosing. Yes AZF&G is not the guilty party, Zim from the internet is to blame. Haha you sound like my parasitic ex who can find blame in anyone except her own unemployed a$$. Yes just turn the blame right around while AZF&G walks off with 15 years of my coin. Simple & convenient. So funny.
Intended or not, AZ had my favorite draw system out west because there was virtually no point creep. You could target a unit and get it if you wanted to wait. Or you could go for a mid-tier unit and list 6A as a solid 2nd choice in the meantime until you got close. It was great for those who knew it. All out the window now.
Sad to go through life SO Bitter!
All I'm saying is you made it sound like this just happened out of the blue and you didn't have a bit of warning. It didn't. And, I know you are smart enough to know that Bob's information was good. You took a calculated risk by staying in the draw for your Unit 1 tag and it didn't work out. No amount of whining on internet forums is going to change that.
The best thing you can do now to get back at the state of Arizona is to cash in your points on a lesser unit, kill one of their bulls, and never give them another dime of yours. Once they publish the draw odds you should have a more clear picture of your situation.
Good luck in Montana. Rumor has it there are some monsters taken on the general tag every year. I hope you find one to help take the sting out of Arizona.
Zim most of the times you come across as a pretty sharp guy but with this when is enough, enough?
Comical? What's comical is your earlier claims that this is all some scam perpetuated by the Arizona Legislative body in cahoots with the Game and Fish Commission to screw over NR's and hand a few more tags to Residents. You said we could follow the money, remember? Well I still have no evidence to believe any of that to be true. You and your ex sound like two peas in a pod.
Zim, you had virtually no chance of drawing unit 1 until Az doubled the amount of tags from 150 to 300 several years ago. Can you imagine how the top point holders must have felt to finally draw and then to have double the hunters?
Win some, lose some.
Keep applying if that is your unit as it is still within reach.
If you are max points you STILL have the best shot of, well, everybody at drawing that magical unit you're holding out for. Nobody took away that. IF you are in the max pool you STILL have the best odds by far of drawing it. You aren't back to zero by any stretch of the imagination. If you weren't at max points then chances are your wait was going to keep going on and on anyway, regardless of any changes.
What I'm seeing is people somehow want to plan things out to the year they are GUARANTEED a tag. But in reality no one ever guaranteed anyone any tags. Especially in a unit where a handful go out every year and whatever the number of max point pool is every year go on. And on.
IF your heart is set on "that unit", keep applying for it. Chances are you may draw it somewhere down the line. Could be others will bail out and take a mid tier unit. I know a bunch that didn't draw units they thought they had in the bag.... IMO because a good number of high point holders cashed in their chips on a mid unit.
I think that is going to happen more and more. It's going to take a while to sift through all that trickle down too. But it had to be done sometime. The sooner it's done the less pain down the road.
But max point holders STILL have by far the best shot at drawing the unit they want. Nobody has been denied anything.
Anyone that denies these point cheapening "changes" are not originated in legislatures and/or game commissions need to explain to us.........If not, where then are they? Please tell us. And for what reason other than profit at the expense of invested sportsmen.
"Nobody has been denied anything." - Hahahahaha OMG do some out there seriously believe this or this this just a sarcastic joke?
At this point I'm just very curious to see the train wreck draw stats that AZF&G will publish. That will be the next big joke.
Do you still have the better odds or not? Are you cashing in your chips being too far away from "winning" or sticking it out? Are you never going to draw with these changes? I know many were never going to have a shot ever in their lifetimes without any changes. Again, odds were reduced. They didn't take away your points.
You STILL hold the lions share of odds and the best shot of nearly anybody at drawing IF you were that close to drawing. If not THAT close... nothing was guaranteed.
Zim, I understand you being upset, but a couple things:
1. You seem beyond upset. I hope the negativity doesn't spill over to your eventual hunt and ruin the experience for you. If I were you, I'd start to look on the bright side.
2. If you end up drawing unit 1 next year or the year after, all this hand wringing will have...not been for nothing, but, for sure will have been a mountain made out of a mole hill.
Neither you nor I know when you will draw. I can make my guess and you can make yours, but even if you put in for 6A and burn your points, we all know how many points you have and we'll see when you could have drawn if you'd have held out and there's a possibility that it won't be long.
I hope you get your unit 1 tag and have a great hunt.
Is it hunting season yet?
If I understand the new process it basically cut the bonus pass from a 100% max to a 50% max so guys with max points still have the best chance of drawing of all applicants. To address Zim's complaint that this should've been phased in maybe this is step 1 of a plan to completely eliminate the bonus pass....
Bob and I burned our points in 2013...great minds think like eh Bob?
Its a more equitable system now for the new guys...though at the cost to Non Res tags.
and don't tell me, "We only lost a couple tags..." because some units they only give out 10 tags MAX to non res....If they would have kept the top at 10% and added a POSSIBLE 5% in the general round for both non res and res hunters.....THAT would have been fair considering the huge $$$ flooding into Arizona for these licenses and tags from Non Res.
Archer, I'll tell you why I'm especially pissed off. It's the unethical mentality of not just AZ, but almost all the states, that create programs for premium value tag distribution, are glad to take your money for decades, then seem to think it's just fine to sign a piece of paper that devalue 50% or more of what we've invested. No refund. Not even an apology! Plain and simple bait-n-switch. As a direct result of this irresponsible behavior, 2016 is the 3rd consecutive year I've drawn zero tags anywhere. After 20 years I'm just plain sick of it. Now I'm 56 with the wheels falling off, fitness routine downscaled dramatically. While you know some teenager or worse, teenage outfitter somewhere has my tag in his pocket, with no investment at all.
To top it off, I went out of my way to help stop that ridiculous AZ HB2072 tag grab legislation by AZSFW in 2013. I guess it's "What have you done for me lately?
My posts today are to simply warn newbies of what they are buying into when they start out investing in these scams. I wish someone had done that for me 20 years ago. If so, I'd have points in half the states I do today, and a LOT more money in my pocket. Warning - don't trust anyone.
I'm going to Montana on a leftover. Will give me something to research.
"If they would have kept the top at 10% and added a POSSIBLE 5% in the general round for both non res and res hunters.....THAT would have been fair..."
So your solution would be to increase the statewide number of elk permits by 5% in a state that averages over 35% success? Arizona isn't Montana or Colorado, where they have 150-250,000 elk. The estimate of Arizona's elk population is only 30-35,000 statewide. While that solution might benefit the hunters, I don't think that's in the best interest of the elk population. Arizona is conservative in their permit numbers, which allows the bulls to grow large, which is why the NR's want to come here in the first place. Increasing the kill by 5% each year would likely solve the problem with NR's wanting to hunt Arizona, but in a bad way.
Zim, "Teenager or worse, teenage outfitter"....At least you're coming up with new complaints!
Zim, first let me state that I don't think there's a state G&F dept. out there that does a better job overall than Arizona does --- an UNDENDING growing population vying for a NON-GROWING limited number of hunting tags offered in a ARID state. I appreciated your effort on the AzSFW fiasco a few years ago --- true enough. But if you don't let go of your anger/frustration, the stress will kill you before your age does. Seriously.
Free speech is important, and you've stated your case. But you're poisoning the air now by not letting up. You've been a credit to the hunting fraternity --- don't let your current state of mind alter everyone's opinion of you forever.
That being said, I hope you get out there and slap a tag on a good one --- I want to see pics!
Stick, no. I propose keeping the percentage the same for non res in the max point round- 10%....then making 5% more available in the general round....so 15% max instead of 10%.
In other words....throw a bone to the folks buying a $160 license every year [that don't end up hunting] plus pay $660 for a tag that costs you $150. Non residents contribute a lot of money into the Az F&G...
I'm not positive but a change to the percentage might have to go through the legislature. Pretty sure the up to 10% language is in law.
"Zim, "Teenager or worse, teenage outfitter"....At least you're coming up with new complaints!"
No I've mentioned this several times previously. And unfortunately it's a fact not an opinion.
Lv2, I'm just out advertising this injustice so newbies considering entering some of these scams know the truth, and consider the facts before they start making lifelong contributions to what they don't realize are not much more than Ponzi schemes accredited by some state's logo. I think they should know the truth. As I said, if someone had done this for me 20 years ago I'd have taken an entirely different approach.
To read this thread, you'd think AZ arbitrarily reduced Zim's points to zero and then sent a representative to his house to run over his mail box. Geez.
Zim...Who pissed in your wheaties ?? There are plenty of great units in Az other than unit 1...and i don't mean 9,10 or 23...Geez get over it !!
My question is simply this; why not let Zim vent? Many of you guys sound like its a crime to speak against F&G. No small or big business OWNER would ever look at how F&Gs operate and think they do a good job.
The only people that think F&Gs operate well are uninformed to say the least. If AZF&G would install more water tanks and create more suitable habitat then they could offer more tags which would solve most of the aforementioned problems!
But its probably easier to single out an individual thats unhappy and claim they're a heretic than to admit a huge entity is really as effective as circus clowns. Carry on Zim!
Mike, are there specific areas within the state that you are aware of that are deficient in surface water or is this a show of solidarity for Zim by conjuring up something to complaining about? Having hunted 10+ units in AZ over the past 20+ years, I can't say I have found one - and especially not in the elk-occupied portions of the state.
I'm not complaining. I'm simply pointing out facts.
As I said, it's intended to be helpful and constructive to young guys looking to invest in all F&G dept's tag distribution systems, not just Arizona. They are only the latest to devalue previously sold points.
It will only get worse in the future. Ever see your taxes reduced? No they just get higher. That's what politicians do. How'd you like if you invested in a system for years, just gaining one point/year, then have the F&G come out and start peddling 10 packs of points for $65 or something? So some rookie comes in and buys 500 points to your 5? Sound like a good plan for you newbies to invest in? Well, that's what Maine did for their moose hunts. That's where all of these can end up.
If I were starting out now I'd proceed with the understanding that your points will eventually end up as bonus, not preference, in every state......at best. If you are happy with that, invest. However, you can also definitely count on your points being devalued in one of many other ways. History has proven this.
I am hoping AZF&G will have the cajones to post the broken down R/NR draw stats soon. I don't rubberneck on the freeway, but I'm very curious to see this train wreck.
"If I were starting out now I'd proceed with the understanding that your points will eventually end up as bonus, not preference, in every state......at best. If you are happy with that, invest."
Sound advice, but frankly pretty common sense for those who follow the trends.
"I am hoping AZF&G will have the cajones to post the broken down R/NR draw stats soon. I don't rubberneck on the freeway, but I'm very curious to see this train wreck."
They will, and I would be willing to bet the tag distribution between R/NR is materially the same as it was last year, with perhaps just a few less tags coming to NR's. Folks need to keep in mind NR's on average have a higher # of points, so they have the ability to out-compete R's in the random draw. They question is, will they? NR's disproportionately employ a strategy of building points rather than applying for a tag each year versus residents, so they self-select out of the ability to draw.
IMO folks who think this new allocation process will substantially "structurally" benefit residents (versus situationally, by virtue of NR's disproportionately building points rather than applying for tags) are going to be surprised.
As usual, Randy is spot on.
I preferred AZ's draw system when there was no % to max holders......just a simple bonus point system. You don't draw, you get another point.....like having multiple lottery tickets to try and increase your odds. That all changed when hunters (us) began to complain about not drawing a premium tag with "X" amount of points and a "first timer" drew "their" tag with no points. Simply put, this is what happens when hunters feel a sense of entitlement on a very limited resource, IMO.
"I preferred AZ's draw system when there was no % to max holders......just a simple bonus point system. You don't draw, you get another point.....like having multiple lottery tickets to try and increase your odds. That all changed when hunters (us) began to complain about not drawing a premium tag with "X" amount of points and a "first timer" drew "their" tag with no points. Simply put, this is what happens when hunters feel a sense of entitlement on a very limited resource, IMO. "
The lesson there is we hunters should be careful what we ask for, because you might just get it. ;-)
The current NM archery elk seasons (with the best period being only 6 days long) are another result of hunters demanding more and unwittingly getting less.
This has been a good read and some valid points raised. In my case, I now have 7 BP and I put in bull 1st choice and cow 2nd. I'm not very happy with the reduction of cow tags. I couldn't even draw a cow tag this year as a resident. Sometimes I wonder how much these BP's really enhance our odds. For example, I have a friend whose dad from Cali put in for AZ elk for the 1st time in his life and pulled a 6A M/L bull tag. He had ZERO points and is tag #137 out of 300 tags ( I think). My point is, obviously the 10% cap had not been hit yet when he drew. So how does a scenario like this factor into the changes G&F started this year? Hopefully when stats are released info will be broken down so everyone can digest it and find out where they stand in the AZ game.
Seriously, crickets? Maybe guys like Zim don't have it quite so bad compared to some residents.
No doubt Chuckster. The draw is equally hard for AZ residents and non-residents. People just don't realize that outside of a "lucky" few, it takes most residents 7+ years to draw a tag in a second tier unit.
He drew in the 1-2 pass, which is the only draw he was in since he had no points. Couldn't tell you if the changes were the difference in his case without looking but they didn't hurt his chances.
"If I were starting out now I'd proceed with the understanding that your points will eventually end up as bonus, not preference, in every state......at best. If you are happy with that, invest." Sound advice, but frankly pretty common sense for those who follow the trends."
Matt I clearly stated my posts were intended to offer sound advice to rookies looking to get in on some of these scams on the ground floor. They would have absolutely no idea about the past rampant point devaluing by legislators and wildlife boards who have raped sportsmen during the last 20 years. In fact, I've never seen a single comment or warning about this in any proclamation booklet or F&G website.
And they will never use the word "devalue". Only the word "change".
Treewalker - spot on. Imo the best state system is Nevada. They square it for every year you apply. If you have 10 years in you have 100x the draw odds of a newbie, but at least the newbie has a chance. AZ was probably losing the new entry guys, who were looking at the point creep and realizing 20+ years to even start to be in the conversation wasn't worth it. Fully acknowledge the high point guys came out poorly. As pointed out, life isn't fair.
At some point, with more hunters applying in more states, we are going to have to figure out how to grow the pie. The demand is growing, so should the supply. In AZ 2 years ago I hunted hard the most gorgeous muley habitat I've seen and didn't even find a pile of fresh scat. Amazing. More tanks and introduce deer that don't have the migration instinct? I dunno, but if that sage was MT there would have been lots of (smaller-racked) deer.
We are lucky to even have the chance, and (should) know it.
I definitely disagree about Nevada. If you are a new applicant your odds will likely go down every year for the next 15 years unless a lot of new tags are offered or applicants start dying. When I look at my first year odds being <1% and the reality that they probably won't be greater than 1% for a over a decade, I'm not going to throw my money away. At least you have a chance, but I'm not going to spend that much money for those odds. Squaring bonus points is stupid.
Arizona's 2016 Pronghorn and Elk Bonus Point Reports have been released. Same format as in the past, there is no breakdown separating nonresident/resident applicants.
