Eastmans vs. Hunters trailhead
Elk
Who has more accurate (aka less mistakes)? I am a member to both but recently was thinking. The last several years I have found a lot of errors in eastmans - I have never checked hunters trailhead. The only reason I checked eastmans is during looking at the MRS graphs it was apparant something was wrong so I checked WY g&f and discovered multiple errors. Many times it is obvious they used the same chart as last year and in updating it columns got mixed up.
I have both, but use them in different capacities.
I use Eastman's more for unit/area info and Hunter's trailhead for draw odds.
The Eastmans MRS sucks with so many mistakes that it's ridiculous, even including incorrect season dates. They didn't even know how their own Wyoming elk draw runs for a person to get the general tag as a second choice in the Special Draw. As of last year nobody drew a second choice because of so much talk out on websites.
I'm liking GoHunt and TopRut.
I talked to both about predictive odds; GoHunt wasn't too receptive, TopRut is looking at how to implement it. Both are up to speed on the NR bonus pass pools for Elk.
Eastmans has its place but too much data has hurt the mrs. I have no need for hunters trailhead.
Hunters Trailhead for draw odds. Seem to be much more true odds, not just simple.
What exactly does predictive odds mean? Ive looked a Gohunt but wasn't overly impressed. If I remember, for NM odds they simply calculated your first choice- thru 3rd choice by number of applicants per pool and gave you a draw percentage for each choice but we all know the draw doesn't work like that in that it looks at all three before moving on to next applicant. Im not a member anymore so I haven't saw how they calculate the random odds for AZ?
I drew a unit a couple years ago that Eastmans had the access rated at a C and it should have been an F. When talking with biologists and game & fish about areas it seems that Eastmans #'s are over inflated when it comes to the actual size of bulls in a unit.
Eastman's has plenty of raw data. I can do the calculations and figure the rest out ALL BY MYSELF...
Predictive odds are what most all of us do, we predict what our odds will be in the upcoming draw, based on the how the point pools ended after the draw. Every mag and service, except one, simply shows what the odds were in the previous draw.
Ron Wold provides predictive odds for Oregon, as a hobby (free). GoHunt and TopRut both use the AZ NR point pool data to correctly calculate the previous years odds. Hunters Trailhed used the "guess the gap" method for their 2016 AZ odds from the numbers I have seen, which was the preferred method in the past. I'm sure they'll update their method.
NM will provide the raw, app by app data table is asked. A member on MM has used it to create a draw simulator, so NM odds can be correctly calculated if one of these outfits got serious about it.
If you want to know how good a unit is, you cannot rely on any website. They are tools and pieces of the puzzle only. I do like Hunterstrailhead for its ease of use and quick odds comparisons, but I figure my odds and do my research myself.
The websites only give you and idea and they miss a lot of jems
ok so I understand what your u r saying about predictive odds, I guess the only thing that could sway is if ppl jump from unit to unit. But im sure most ppl with high points prolly have a particular unit that they are shooting for. Now as far as NM I don't understand exactly what you are saying about simulator, etc. I know that if you total all three app pools divide by tag numbers, you get your rough odds, but some of those second and third choice will draw their first choice,etc, and you also have two other choices. So I m not sure how u get a exact draw %. kinda same thing for AZ in the random draw with a couple other quirks. To me, figuring these things out is a very big key to hunting the west and being able to draw tags in a reasonable amount of time
I'm trying to "predict" my draw odds for a Utah unit but find this state very hard to do. Every year people jump in and out of the pool making it very difficult to predict.
If you know the applicant pool numbers, by point, by residency, you can get close enough. The caveat, as always, is "if things stay the same". Obviously we can't know how many will apply so all we can do is use last years pools minus those that drew. Ron Wold does however predict those pools in OR as he has years of data to go from.
I wouldn't trust anything in Eastman's RMS.......
Mentioned time after time in the posts above is that it's impossible to predict how many applicants there is from one year to the next. Something not mentioned in any of the posts is the uncertainty of how many tags will be issued from 1 year to the next. Unfortunately many states don't determine tag allocations until after application deadlines. It's kindof frustrating if a hunter has max pts and applies for a unit that doesn't offer any nonres tags! There are a few Wyo special elk tags that are this way.
In years with great spring moisture and mild winters there may be more tags available than in years after drought or severe winterkill. As WapitiBob mentioned in his post, "if things stay the same". Not only do applicant numbers often change from year to year but also tag numbers. It's pretty tough to predict both! I'm not sure if Eastmans or any of the memberships offer detailed information or predictions with winterkill, drought, or other factors in mind?
WY Elk Draw tip #23:
How can you have a NR Elk draw in WY without a tag quota?? Pert near impossible I'd say.....
All the info you need to get as close as possible is available. The only thing you don't know is the makeup of the applicant pools and you just do the best you can. From where I sit, it's a whole lot better than just looking at last years numbers. Using last years odds, which could have been 0%, could now be 100% if they cleaned out the point pools above you. I outlined that exact scenario for a guy on another forum that questioned his Gohunt derived AZ odds.
I haven't messed with odds for 6-7 years now.
They are there in one form or another, right or wrong, and everyone sees them.
Hunter appl. jump around by the latest greatest unit from websites or mag articles.
I pretty much know my units of choice and I simply apply for them.
I am comfortable with how I apply as I hunt 2-3 states year in year out consistently (NO I am not talking about antlerless/cow tags)
Good luck, Robb
Idyllwild has it EXACTLY right
