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Climate change and elk
Elk
Contributors to this thread:
bullnbow 10-Apr-12
midwest 10-Apr-12
gil_wy 10-Apr-12
Jasper 10-Apr-12
Z Barebow 10-Apr-12
TD 10-Apr-12
bullnbow 10-Apr-12
Lech 1 10-Apr-12
wyobullshooter 10-Apr-12
LKH 10-Apr-12
thetruthhurts 10-Apr-12
ID Hunter 10-Apr-12
ID Hunter 10-Apr-12
bullnbow 10-Apr-12
Z Barebow 10-Apr-12
BUGLELK 10-Apr-12
wyobullshooter 10-Apr-12
bullnbow 10-Apr-12
city hunter 10-Apr-12
Norseman 11-Apr-12
Amoebus 11-Apr-12
REX 11-Apr-12
bullnbow 11-Apr-12
bullnbow 11-Apr-12
TD 11-Apr-12
elkslaya 11-Apr-12
swede 11-Apr-12
Jaquomo_feral 11-Apr-12
bullnbow 11-Apr-12
Jaquomo_feral 11-Apr-12
TD 11-Apr-12
6pointbull 11-Apr-12
AndyB 11-Apr-12
yrovikle 11-Apr-12
Norseman 11-Apr-12
elkslaya 11-Apr-12
bullnbow 12-Apr-12
Ermine 12-Apr-12
bowyer45 12-Apr-12
Jaquomo_feral 12-Apr-12
Ermine 12-Apr-12
swede 12-Apr-12
JDice 12-Apr-12
From: bullnbow
10-Apr-12
Is climate change effecting the phenology ( timing of life cycles), altitude, and latitude of elk in your area? What evidence might you have?

From: midwest
10-Apr-12
Al, is that you? lol

From: gil_wy
10-Apr-12
Nope... Hunting pressure sure is but the climate...

From: Jasper
10-Apr-12
Climate change has zero effect on elk. Global warming...........now that's another matter all together. :)

From: Z Barebow
10-Apr-12
Weather change happens every year. Spring to summer. Summer to fall. Fall to winter. Temperature transistion readings may vary slightly from year to year. But it happens. Amount of available daylight does not change. If "climate" had an affect on elk breeding times, there would be a huge difference between AZ elk and MT elk. But there isn't. It is the amount of daylight which triggers breeding. (Any changes in breeding times will affect calving times, which will affect calf survival.)

Daily weather variances can affect the intensity of the breeding period. (Especially daytime). But breeding does happen around the same time every year.

If you have been watching the "Current" TV channel or Anne Thompson from NBC, I'm sure they can come up with something different.

No elk has bought into the NASA propoganda, and plenty of humans with common sense are not on board either.

From: TD
10-Apr-12
Resolved.....

From: bullnbow
10-Apr-12
barebow i hope you are not proposing that i have no common sense on the issue. if you are, you are highly mistaken. phenology does include birth, breading times-yes and i agree with you. however, it also includes things such as migration times which are subject to change. please dont hide under a rock and assume that "change" is not occuring faster than it has in the past. these changes could potentially effect the habitat of the elk we hunt, and my interest is to see if anybody has seen an alteration in the herd they hunt, wether it be in the elevation the elk prefer, geographical change (excluding things such as food availability), or any other variable that could be inticating a shift in the elk herds norms. thanks guys

From: Lech 1
10-Apr-12
Let,s ask the folks in Ankorage Al. about global warming.

10-Apr-12
No. My "evidence" is based on bowhunting the same area since '85. The only thing that has had any effect on the elk is the increased number of hunters. The one constant is the weather...you never know from one year to the next what it is going to bring, just like it's always been.

I agree with Z. Guess we're hiding under the same rock.

From: LKH
10-Apr-12
Actually, our winter in Anchorage and the surrounding area hasn't been especially cold, just a lot of snow.

10-Apr-12
The climate changes almost hourly in the mountains. If I learned correctly in grade school, the climate has been changing gradually up and down for millions of years, so who am I to argue? I do not believe that there is anything you or I, and most especially the government can or should try to do about it.

From: ID Hunter
10-Apr-12
Agree with Z. While I don't disagree there are probably changes occuring in the overall climate of the world, the amount of daylight in the day is the primary factor that get elk to start their breeding.

From: ID Hunter
10-Apr-12
Agree with Z. While I don't disagree there are probably changes occuring in the overall climate of the world, the amount of daylight in the day is the primary factor that get elk to start their breeding.

From: bullnbow
10-Apr-12
Thank you bullshooter. Thats the kind of answer I was looking for. Everyone is entitled to their opinion. I had the same opinion until I started reading into other researches on similar topics such as one that shows an alteration in snowshoe hares ability to change color to match its surroundings in winter vs. summer. So far that research shows that they are unable to keep up with the said change. Other studies show many randomly selected species are now able to live where they have not been able to before (and visa versa) such as the red fox who can now inhabit the same geographic area as the arctic fox. This is what sparked my interest with elk

From: Z Barebow
10-Apr-12
bullnbow. This isn't a debate free thread. (Per your thread ownership) Your inital post suggests climate change is real & concrete. I do buy into that viewpoint. (And it climate change is a viewpoint)

I will repeat myself. Montana and Arizona have totally different climates. Yet elk breeding coincides around the same time every year in both states. Your comment/question automatically assumes any perceived breeding changes are to be attributed to a political movement which some people have embraced as science.

The variances which an elk experience in their habitat are many. Housing development, oil & gas development, hunting pressure, predators, and decisions by biologists are going to affect elk behavior and habits. A political movement will not affect directly elk as they do not pay taxes or vote.

The elk forum is not the place to "debate" global warming, climate change, or whatever the carbon credit cult call it today. Move the subject over to the Community Forum and you will defintely experience some real warmth!

It is definitely the off season.

From: BUGLELK
10-Apr-12

BUGLELK's Link
Personally, I feel the climate/weather does have an effect on the elk, particularly the elk rut. Distribution on the summer range and calving areas are affected by the winter/spring weather, and those distributions definitely affect the rut. Some years we find way more elk congregated in a certain area, the next year, they are spread all the way up and down the drainage. These densities of elk distribution affect the rut, as do weather patterns (look at the lack of rut in Arizona on drought years).

While I agree the amount of daylight triggers the breeding cycle, the intensity of the rut can be muted or elevated depending on density of elk, weather, amount of feed/water, etc., all of which are directly affected by the climate.

Casey Ripple has a really great article in the next issue of Extreme Elk Magazine looking at how weather and climate affect the rut (El Nino vs La Nina, etc), with a lot of really good points to consider, especially after last seasons lack of elk activity in many western states.

Many thanks, Corey Jacobsen Elk101.com - Extreme Elk Magazine

10-Apr-12
bullnbow...like you say, everyone has an opinion. Some experts say we are in the midst of massive change, others don't agree.

Either way, the earth is in a state of constant change. That's why there are ice ages, dust bowls, etc. There is no doubt that we will see great change again. How fast this change occurs, only time will tell. Most animals and humans will adapt just like they always have. Those that don't will become extinct just like those that failed to adapt before them. Let's just hope elk will always be around!

From: bullnbow
10-Apr-12
Corey that's awesome I can't wait to get it in the mail! And thank you for an answer that directly pertains to the question.

Guys I didn't set it as debate free because I want to hear your opinions on change in elk behavior and habitat. I also did not ask wether you think that global climate change is political jargon or what you perceive concerning anthropocentric climate change and it's validity. We all agree that climate change is normal and natural regardless of what is causing the onset, so (as stated in the original post), has climate change caused any changes in the herd you hunt?

From: city hunter
10-Apr-12
Hahaha guys need a reason when we come up with tag soup ....

From: Norseman
11-Apr-12
It's "RESOVED"

How has the climate changed in elk country.?

Most of you are citing examples of changes in weather.

From: Amoebus
11-Apr-12
bullnbow

To have an accurate indicator of a behavior change, you have to have a clear measurable and many years of data. Things like the northern nesting grounds for birds, migration dates for birds, or first blooms of flowers for different latitudes. Audubon has been doing a winter christmas count of birds for 112 years now - data like this will tell us long term if birds are spending winters at more northern latitudes or if they are migrating later than in the past.

Elk, as you mention in your first post have some measurable behaviors, but there seem to be many variables that an individual hunter may not see. For instance, in 2014, I see the first elk calf born 30 days later than in 2013 - is it because they are calving later or were the first 10 ones born that year eaten immediately by lions, tigers (sorry Mule Power, wolves) and bears? In 2015 I do not see elk at 11,000 feet where they were abundant in 2014 - is it because there was 300" less snow this year and there is no food to eat or did a wolf pack take up residence and just push them down in the trees for your viewing period?

When we talk non-game birds, we are basically looking at variables like wintering grounds, migration grounds, and summer/nesting grounds - maybe abundance of foods. When we look at elk, you have to add in all kinds of other issues... interesting to think about.

I think it is good to start keeping an eye on the data, but without decades of it, I am not sure how anyone could relate it back to climate change without tracking all the other possible factors.

From: REX
11-Apr-12
The climate does change constantly. There is no such thing as a static climate. And there are no such thing as normal temperatures, precipitation, etc., just averages. Every year, there are record high temperatures and record low temperatures set all around the world. True climate change is natural and normal and has been going on with warming and cooling cycles since the beginning of time. We could dabate the junk science behind the global warming social justice scam all day long. I'm glad that is not what we are talking about.

As far as elk hunting goes, I have seen changing weather patterns effect elk behavior from year to year, but I don't percieve that to be an effect of climate change because I honestly don't see any evidence that the climate has changed much where I hunt. For example, last fall the elk did not group up and migrate to wintering areas until much later because we didn't have the snow. The fall before that, we saw elk migrating much sooner due to heavy snowfall in early fall.

Elk are highly adaptable and can live in a variety of climates. I see much more of an effect of habitat loss, hunting pressure, and annual localized weather changes on elk behavior than what I would categorize as climate change. My brother has a PhD in Ecology and we discuss things like this all the time. The problem with a lot of these studies is that they fail to look at things with a broad enough spectrum to adequatly analyze long-term changes in climate as opposed to shorter weather changes.

11-Apr-12
I would guess there is a more elk habit in glacier national forest since the glaciers have all but melted since the 1960's.

From: bullnbow
11-Apr-12
amoebus- thats a great point. i understand that none of are out there to collect scientific data and run lab test and residual plots on our findings, but i have to make the point that we are the ones out there. we are at the same place doing the same thing at the same time and everything around us that is not the "same" as it was in previous years, we can't help but take note of. i know that this is not factual information or that what we find is viable in any argument on the issue, however if we can match up a similar occurrence in two geographically dissimilar areas, we may be able to put a rough hypothesis together (assuming other variables are constant, which they almost always are not) for no reason other that to better our chances of being able to say- the elk are frequenting this new area and this is why i think they are doing that. i hope that makes sense and if i wanted hard factual data then collecting such data would be difficult and temporally strenuous. thanks for making that note

REX i agree with you that those variables are much more influential on elk than is climate change. but could climate be driving some of those other factors in a way? for instance, in my home town we have a local wintering herd that is beginning to stay on the winter range longer, largely because of a lack of pressure and a great amount of feed. could climate be an external driver that is influencing them? this same herd travels many miles to their summer range, if they remain on the winter range longer, will they make it to those distant places they use to do? they seem to prefer 6500 to 7200 or so feet of elevation. could snow line differences alter their preferable altitude come hunting season? could a longer summer due to climate increase insect numbers pushing elk towards tree line? i could ask similar questions all day. i just want to find out if any of these (or similar) phenomenons are happening in your area that could be derived from climate. thanks gents

From: bullnbow
11-Apr-12

bullnbow's Link
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/01/120110140235.htm

im not too sold on this one but it's something to consider right?

From: TD
11-Apr-12
Exactly what do you think the elk will do differently?

They go where there is feed. They go where there is water. They go where there is less danger. All of these conditions are variable not only year to year but month to month. They thrive when conditions are right, they die when they starve, freeze, killed/eaten or get disease.

They were originally a plains game, not high mountain. The mountains are not their normal habitat. They are grazers not browsers.

There was a good amount of "anthropocentric" activity went on back then that did change things, but certainly nothing much WRT "climate change". (Used to be "Global Warming" until that wasn't working so well, so the High Priest Algore sanctioned "Climate Change".... that way you win no matter what the weather does.....)

But a dramatic change it was from the plains to the mountains. There weren't a whole bunch left either at one point until they were introduced (by man) in many areas and took off from there.

I don't see "climate change" doing anything to change elk behavior. I know when the rut is on and it's hot they do their thing at night and activity is way down. Hey, it's hot out....

Seems the first storm or big drop in temps and they go off all day like you flipped a switch. They can be much more active in the cooler weather.

But the weather will do what the weather will do. First system comes through when it comes through. The only thing man made about the weather is the concept of trying to define what "normal" is. That and the natural human self centered arrogance/guilt to think there is much we can do about it.

From: elkslaya
11-Apr-12
Great question and a good opportunity to see where others might stand on the "global warming" theory. You can call it "climate change" if you like but its still the same thing as far as i am concerned. Gore might be sellin but i'm not buyin

From: swede
11-Apr-12
I am not confident enough to say just what is due to climate change and what is based on other factors. Two things I have observed are 1. Some of the old springs where I hunt are drying up due to drier and hotter summers than in the past. 2. The bulls are not bugling like they used to. The later could be due to increased hunting pressure, but it is also likely due to warmer temperatures in September.

I think the question is interesting. It is too bad that the whole climate change situation has become a partician political issue. I am not sure the doom and gloomers are right about where we are headed, but I do not know they are wrong either.

11-Apr-12
According to Dr. Valerius Geist, any warming will be highly beneficial to elk, and will extend their range and preferential habitat.

During the medieval period known as the "Great Warming", roughly from 1100-1400 A.D., elk did just fine, and expanded their range across most of North America. And it was a LOT warmer then (average temperatures) than it is now. Fat Albert and Michael Mann conveniently constructed their now-disproven "hockey stick" graph to begin just after that period, during the beginning of the mini ice age.

Anyone who has paid attention to the "Climategate" scandals understands that while there may be something happening that is anthropogenic, the amount of cherry-picked data, excluded data, and flat-out made-up lies that were uncovered during that fiasco throws doubt on any possible "impending crisis", and instead strongly points to the possibility that this is simply natural variation. Even Phil Jones, who headed the Climare Research Unit until being forced to resign after Climategate, admitted in a post-firing interview that there has been no warming since 1998, and they have no idea why since it doesn't match their computer modeling projections.

Every single climate alarmist is in some way tied financially (grants, investments, etc..) to the premise of ongoing anthropogenic global warming. Fat Al would have made billions from his Chicago Climate Exchange if Cap-and Trade had passed.

Meanwhile the elk just keep on keepin' on. A degree or two either way doesn't matter to them one whit.

From: bullnbow
11-Apr-12
Swede I perfectluy agree with you. I can't say what is true I can only say what seems evident to me.

For some reason, many here think I'm advocating global warming or trying to discuss global warming here. Not true at all. I don't want to discuss global warming, politics, or any mumbo jumbo. I do feel as though climate is changing quicker than historically and that humans could have something to do with it- so what, big deal thats my perspective. I'm asking a simple question that has to do with climate change and a change in elk.

Elkslaya I really don't care at all what you think about global warming as that is far from the concern of this thread. What does Gore have to do with how elk react to a changing climate. Climate change happens we all know that. I want to find out how that influences elk

THIS IS NOT A POLITICAL THREAD please guys

11-Apr-12
Bullnbow, with all due respect, there have been more dramatic climatic changes throughout history than what we've experienced during this little blip in time. The Vostok ice cores provide plenty of evidence to support that. You may "feel" that it's changing more quickly, but the historical evidence doesn't support it.

All of the elk behavioral changes we've seen in my area of CO over the past 40 years can be directly attributed to increased hunting pressure during archery season.

We've had warm, dry summers, cool wet summers, long, hard snowy winters, warmish winters with less snow. The elk herds keep growing, they bugle when they're supposed to bugle, they occupy the same habitat in the summer - except the herds way down in the low, hotter foothill elevations like where Pat hunts are expanding, where there were no (or very few) elk 40 years ago.

But quadruple the number of bowhunters pushing them around, and everything changes after the first few days of the season, regardless of the "climate". They head into deep wilderness or private land, and they become call-shy.

From: TD
11-Apr-12
What Lou said. It was pressure and loss of habitat that moved them out of the prairies to the mountains in the first place. Certainly not any weather/climate effects.

IMO those continue to be the important factors of where the elk are and how they act. I've even heard genetic arguments that killing the aggressive vocal bulls and having the quieter more shy bulls left do the breeding over time create generations of bulls less receptive to calling. I'd give that more credibility than any climate trend. At least in a man's lifetime or 5....

Local events, like the fires in AZ, the flooding in the MO Breaks covering much of the traditional river bottom grass flats under feet of silt, etc. will certainly have temporary local effects. But the grass will grow back soon and stronger than ever. And the elk will be back there in force soon enough.

From: 6pointbull
11-Apr-12
Montana ended a 10 year drought about 4-5 years ago. the elk behavior had changed somewhat during that time period for the reasons stated above (finding food, water, etc) These were not major changes however, as they were still in the same general vacinity and doing what they normally do. What needs to be looked at is the other factors involved. numbers of wolves, lions, and bears could be a bigger factor due to population mushroom over that same time. Also as others have stated, numbers of bowhunters have also mushroomed during that time. So to answer the question in the original post...NO climate does not make a big difference. I suppose it could if big enough changes occurred, but if that happened we would have other problems to deal with.

From: AndyB
11-Apr-12
I think TD hit on something that is very important and makes studying climate change (not weather) and wildlife phenology somewhat difficult...what is "normal"? It goes back to something that was said earlier in regards to the migratory bird surveys...availablity of several years worth of specific, quantifiable data. But it's still just a snapshot in time. I do think however that hunters have a much better perspective on issues like this since they oftentimes are observing multiple variables over a long period of time, like hunting the same area/herd since '85, he/she has a great handle on what is going to change elk behavior and may be able to predict it with a decent amount of accuracy. But I think it is easy to say that climate change has an affect, but how much and how do you isolate it from all of the other variables that affect elk phenology??

From: yrovikle
11-Apr-12
once again Jaquomo_feral makes it straight and simple.

lots of good points and I really like this one "I think it is good to start keeping an eye on the data, but without decades of it, I am not sure how anyone could relate it back to climate change without tracking all the other possible factors."

I have only been hunting elk for 5 years during archery and only 4 more during rifle and all I can say, for the past 9 years, I can still find elk in most places that I look. But who am I to answer your question. ;)

Happy Hunting, yrovikle

From: Norseman
11-Apr-12
Again...cite your observations of climate change? Not weather patterns.

The premise of your question is the assumption climate is changing in elk country. Is it?

Elk live in Alaska to mexico, California to Kentucky From elevations near sea level to 14,000 feet, near deserts to rain forests.

Year to year...The elk are where you find them.

From: elkslaya
11-Apr-12
My, a little sensative are we bullnbow? Your question is political in nature and you know it by virtue of you using a "politically correct" term. That gives the impression that you were looking for a political fight or argument at the very least. Perhaps you should have worded your question a little differently? Or maybe you dont really like hearing the truth regarding "the big lie" that is "global warming"theory aka "climate change" :)

From: bullnbow
12-Apr-12
I'm sorry elkslaya. Your right I was harsh and it was undeserved. My appologes to you sir. I should have stated that I didn't want this to turn into a political debate.

Swede and jaquomo. You guys make some really great points. Do you have cites that I could browse through of where your conclusions are derived from?

Thanks guys, this is the kind of info I really wanted

From: Ermine
12-Apr-12
Not climate change, but I have noticed that the "rut" seems to be happening later and later the past few years here in Colorado where I hunt. It could just be the calander that hunting season falls upon, but the rut is occuring later than other years. Does this make sense? It may be occuring at the same time as thousands of years but later every year based on the hunting season dates.

From: bowyer45
12-Apr-12
Think about it with common sence, does it affect us? Why would it effect the animal kingdom more? They will adapt as needed as we will. Take that as far as you want. Their abilities to adapt are allot better than us puny humans. Things we ought to be concerned about go unaddressed, why worry about that which we have no control. However even though the timing of the rut is not governed by temperture, we, like the animal kingdom may pick cooler times or places to work up a sweat, with some exception of course. jmho lol

12-Apr-12

Jaquomo_feral's Link
This is off-topic, but since you threw down the gauntlet, here's a link to one of the best sites for information and resources on the other side of the "climate change" debate. I don't think the elk care either way, because as others have noted, the elk will adapt just a they always have.

There are reams of studies done by big-league climate scientists that were deliberately omitted from the IPCC report because they didn't support the predetermined conclusion. A friend is a Professor Emeritus of Atmospheric Science and the world's top hurricane predictor, who has testified before Congress on cap-'n-trade, who was excluded from the IPCC project because he tried to present verified scientific facts that didn't support the "crisis". I have a two-inch thick hard-copy file of studies from him.

I don't have time to Google it all for you, but you can look up "Medieval warming period, Vostok ice cores, Climategate, Global Warming fraud" for starters. If you want to pm me with your email addy, I'll be happy to send you a whole bunch of documents, temperature graphs, NASA reports, etc..

From: Ermine
12-Apr-12
Yea I lou i agree with you. Off topic but global warming is a lie. A scam to get money.."Go green" right? There was a professor at CSU. A top scientist that said Global warming is a scam. He was black balled and tried to be covered up. We may be in a warming trend but it has nothing to do with human. Its natural

From: swede
12-Apr-12
I agree with much of what is written here about global warming. However I see no reason to deny that the planet is experiencing a warming trend. That has been measured and is reported on. Many are concerned about it. The polar ice is diminishing rapidly and we are seeing significant change in weather patterns. The question to me is how much of it is really due to carbon emissions? How much is natural climatic change? The planet has seen ice ages and periods when the tropics went far north. If it is just a part of the normal variation, throwing money and resources at the problem is a total waste. If it is man made then the challenge is to get developing countries who are more interested in moving past poverty to change. I understand why the nay sayers are not getting a new hearing, when the vast majority have long since moved on. Right or wrong, it would be much like including a Ford man in a modern design conference, who would be who was trying to encourage development of a better suspension for a model T.

From: JDice
12-Apr-12
Several people in this thread have made the comment that we are in a warming trend - however - I also read articles stating "While there are obviously some dramatic swings in temperature over the past 34 years—such as the cooling after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in the early 1990s and the El Nin~o warming of 1998—the overall trend shows only a slight increase in global surface temperatures."

Given that there doesn't appear to be a single set of measurable facts - global warming/climate change - strikes me as a mixture of normal (measured over hundreds of years) climate variance combined with a strong dose of politics.

That said, like most hunters, my concern for the environment is real so I will continue to keep an open mind on the subject - while protecting my wallet from politicians. that

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