Sitka Mountain Gear
Maine Moose Draw Odds
Contributors to this thread:
Zim1 06-Dec-12
Millsie 06-Dec-12
Quinn @work 06-Dec-12
Fran 06-Dec-12
MQQSE 06-Dec-12
bigbuck 06-Dec-12
Zim1 06-Dec-12
BC 07-Dec-12
bb 07-Dec-12
TradbowBob 07-Dec-12
DonVathome 07-Dec-12
DonVathome 07-Dec-12
bb 07-Dec-12
Zim1 08-Dec-12
dj 08-Dec-12
bigbuck 08-Dec-12
Zim1 08-Dec-12
Zim1 08-Dec-12
bb 08-Dec-12
Xman59 28-Jan-13
Charlie Rehor 28-Jan-13
Zim1 30-Jan-13
bb 30-Jan-13
Stickman24 31-Jan-13
sticksender 31-Jan-13
daleheth 31-Jan-13
caribouken 31-Jan-13
XMan 01-Feb-13
Xman59 10-May-13
Xman59 10-May-13
Xman59 10-May-13
Delmag1942 10-May-13
Mainer 10-May-13
Xman59 10-May-13
mox_ct 11-May-13
Zim1 14-May-13
Xman59 14-May-13
Mainer 14-May-13
From: Zim1
I did not learn about the new point system in Maine until recently. Apparently this was implemented starting this year. I have two links that best describe the change.

As I am a max point nonresident this affects me some, and residents more. From various sources, I'm going to extrapolate with no 10 packs my max point chances would have been about 8% by this year. When they went to the rediculous 10 packs I'd say my odds dropped to 3%. Now based on this latest legislation my odds will go up to about 6%. These are estimates for NR max point holders.

I am of the opinion Maine's moose point game is the biggest joke among all the state's apps I have participated in over the last 15 years.

What is especially eye catching in that second link I attached was the incredible drop in applicants over the last several years! "Since lottery applications peaked in 1994 at 94,532, applications from residents have declined by 50 percent and from nonresidents by 37 percent. In the last two years alone, applications have decreased by a stunning 23 percent." I apply in 12 states every year and have never seen anything even remotely as bad as Maine's decline.

"Department leaders said that the recession, high cost of the hunt, and lost interest on the part of hunters who have never won a permit are the reasons for the decline in sales. They continue to deny that their decision in 2009 to stop printing and mailing applications to previous lottery participants, and instead to go to an online application process only, has made any difference. Clearly, it has."

Funny there is no mention of the absurd odds-killing NR 10 point packs. The only guys I know that dropped out of the Maine draw did so because they were disgusted by their getting thrown under the bus by the 10 point packs.......after they had paid they money and waited their turn.

All this just so Maine could boost new applicant interest and money. Seems to me a very short term money grab.

My take is they created a cluster freak of a system there with their politics, greed for money = joke of a lottery and lots of folks just decided to get out of their rediculous game. Posting here to seek your opinion of their mess and why you think these applicant numbers hit the skids when all other states increase despite their raising fees!

Why is it so hard for a state to be honest like the New Hampshire lottery? Simple.........Earn a point per year, resident or nonresident. No, instead Maine has to make it a gambling casino game in the name of money.........and in the process waste a ton of legislator's time discussing and passing bills to screw various constituents. Go figure.

From: Millsie
Should be one application, one chance, two big jars, one res. one non. None of this 60 or 70 chances if you have the money. They got too greedy! I tried 15 years as a non and stopped, I'm done.

From: Quinn @work
I believe the reason is as described above. Reality hit when applicants figured out their odds of ever drawing were almost none. I stayed in the game hoping they would eventuallly have to change the system. It appears they have changed it for the better so I'll continue to give them my yearly donation.

From: Fran
I missed the deadline by one year and they took all my points. I can see them denying me for the year I missed but thought it was totally unfair to take all my years of points! I will never apply again. Their system is a joke!

Zim hit the nail directly on the head. I was in from the beginning of points and am now out for several of the reasons mentioned. I have written and called their department multiple times over the years about exactly the joke their system has become. It's a true disgrace.

From: bigbuck
While not a true preference point system there Idea is to reward people that have been in from the beginning,with this new system it does help the guy that has been in since the beginning but also still allows the first time hunter a slim oppurtunity.thru the years it has been a joke but I think this is a least a start in the right direction .I know some residents that have been in since day 1 and still havent been able draw!!

From: Zim1
I'd say the new system really brings normalcy to the resident applications.

For nonresidents it puts a band-aid on their abortion, but certainly better than nothing.

One thing they should still do is admit they screwed a lot of people and offer to reinstate points to all residents & nonresidents who's points were forfeited since 1998, for any reason. Personally that would drop my odds a lot, but I don't care, I feel like all those sportsmen got ripped off by politician's shenanigins.

I did not start this thread simply to trash MIFW & the legislators, although that is very easy. My reason was more to see if you are surprised the applicant numbers have tanked so severely, and for what reason. I was stunned to hear these dropped this bad. I am in the top 1% of many western state point pools and over this same time period applicant numbers have continued to increase every year, despite price increases. Is there some additional cause I am missing about Maine's decline? I mean.......a 23% decline in just the last 2 years?!?!?! That is stunning. An indicator something is seriously broken!

From: BC
I gave up on Maine, odds where next to impossible. I've got max points in NH and now have a decent chance of drawing soon.

From: bb
I'm not surprised by the drop, people are reaching the same conclusion that it's purely a money grab with slim chance of ever drawing. One thing has been proven over and over again with all of the draws in the other states, applicants will increase, in spite of the higher costs if there is a legitimate chance. Offering what amounts to unlimited chances in the Maine Lottery just tells people their chances aren't worth the effort. There are better options.

From: TradbowBob
You will get over 50,000 applications for less than 300 tags. I've known people to get one, but I have a friend who lives in Maine who put in for 27 years before he got drawn.


From: DonVathome
I have 13 points right now what is max? Just curious. I want a Canadian moose bad and after striking in in VT this year Canadian moose (or ANY moose) is on my shoot on site list

From: DonVathome
Oh and they are on a $$ grab, many states are. It is a no brainer! I do not think it is fair but it is a good buisiness decision!

From: bb
As long as sales are up, it's a good business decision. Not so good once sales start to tank. they may have to give customers a bit more hope than previously.

From: Zim1
"You will get over 50,000 applications for less than 300 tags. I've known people to get one, but I have a friend who lives in Maine who put in for 27 years before he got drawn."

I read it is more like 50K apps for 3,725 tags.

From: dj
I wish all the hunters could get together and boycott all states who have drawings for five years or until they could come up with something that did not require a Philadelphia lawyer to make applications.

Forgive me for the rant...sore spot.

From: bigbuck
Don,i believe you have max points since they started this new system,I was pretty upset when they changed over the system they somehow lost any record of my points!!after contacting them they said that there was no record of me applying so reset to zero then so have like 11 and print off every application now!!you can always book a canadian hunt though I know you like to DIY.Thats the biggest problem with canada ,aliens need a guide!!

From: Zim1
You can find some semi-guided deals in Canada that are close to DIY. If I really wanted to moose hunt that is what I'd do. The value is really not great for the NE hunts if you figure the app fees invested over the average wait to draw. That's probably also why it made it easy for some of the 23% to drop out of Maine.

From: Zim1
I like some of the quotes in this article from when Maine passed the point change last year:

"The saddest thing about Maine’s moose hunt is that we turned it into a cash cow for the Department of Inland Fisheries and Wildlife. I played a role in that and I’m really regretting it now."

"Let’s blame the public and the legislature. Their failure to financially support DIF&W has forced the department to scramble for money any which way they can get it from selling tee shirts to “sucking money out of people,” a description Rep. Mike Shaw offered for the moose lottery."

"Despite Rep. Ralph Sarty’s plea to “keep it simple,” the restructured lottery is anything but simple."

"The committee rejected a proposal to restrict nonresident lottery applicants to a single chance priced at $40, and decided to keep the current system for nonresidents that allows them to buy one chance for $15, three chances for $25, six chances for $35, or unlimited blocks of 10 chances for $55 per block." $$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$

"Although many committee members argued for a simpler fairer lottery system, DIF&W’s need for the $1.5 million it raises from the lottery stymied that opportunity."

"Senator Dave Trahan argued for a “One man, one chance system. I am so disturbed by how commercial the lottery has become,” he said."

"During a discussion of how convoluted the lottery has become, with many hunters buying chances that list themselves as subpermittee, to increase their chances of winning, Rep. Ellie Espling drew a laugh when she confessed, “I have apply every year. My Dad requires it.”" Hahaha ya let's make jokes while we sell out fairness for $$$$$$$$$$.

"Permits for Guides and Lodges - After a contentious discussion, the committee voted to carry over to the 2012 legislative session a bill to provide 100 moose permits to guides and lodges. This debate consumed much of the morning, with the two key proponents of the proposal, Representatives Steve Wood and Mike Shaw, arguing that guides and lodges need a boost. Rep. Jane Eberle expressed her misgivings about the concept, saying “We’re exploiting our wildlife to serve only a few lodges and guides. I don’t feel it’s fair to everybody else.” After the exhausting debate, Wood threw in the towel and suggested that the bill be carried over. Committee members were quick to oblige him."

Great at least they fended off OUTFITTER WELFARE.

"Quote of the Day Rep. Jane Eberle, during the discussion of the lottery changes. “Can you imagine trying to explain this to the public when we on the committee can’t understand it?”"


From: bb
Kind of instills a warm and fuzzy feeling with government run programs in general

From: Xman59
Zim1 we have discussed this several times. You still fail to correct your misstatements. And continue to not supply all the facts. All you wish to do is slam Maine.

The Maine lottery has never been a preference lottery. The term "Max point" has meaning in those lotteries, but meaningless in Maine. So do not confuse people into thinking you were guaranteed selection.

Second you say you have "max points", but only been playing for 15 years. So even if you are confused about "max points" are not close to the highest possible bonus points possible.

If you were participating for only 15 years, then you have never ever submitted an application where you could only limited to select just ONE purchase point. Translates to you have no right to complain because you have always been in a system with the ability to purchase multiple chances.

Lets not forget you called and revised your application in 2012 because you were selected in NH. A money grabbing government would of said..........if you are selected for a permit, take it or forfeit. But no praise here about that because that is not your intent.

Your calculations on percentage of being selected is completely false. One cannot calculate any odds without knowing the total population. Did you look into your crystal ball or have the number whispered into your ear during sleep, or lsd flashback? If you do not know how many applications or the number of tags going to be offered, then you are making crap up. Maybe you just do not know enough about statistics and lotteries to know how much you do not know. I assume you put them into your rants to give you credibility, but they simply do not.

If you are ranting about the ability to purchase unlimited chances that dilute your percentages, then how can you calculate percentages? Please tell how you are capping the total chances in the pool, when there is no limit? You cannot argue both sides and be credible.

Here is challenge to those complaining........list the options since inception? Its like a take home test, cheating is allowed.

Its a lottery, who's recent change is with very progressive bonus points. And even being progressive, guess what; still no guarantees.

Your chances will continue to get better, with a minimal financial input.

Those guessing at how healthy the lottery revenues are by merely the total applicants. Do you have all the necessary information. Is this number the total applicants or the total chances? How many people actually bought more than one group of ten chances? Can you have a valid rant if you do not know how many people purchased multiples of ten? What was the drop in new applicants? The answer is nobody here knows.

The new changes do have some very favorable ones, but nobody has mentioned a single one. I smell bias.

And if the rule clearly states you forfeit if you miss a year. Do we get to ignore rules we know exist because they apply to us? And oh amazement, this rule has been one of the new changes, but not a single mention. Just more rants about the old rule. Which was not only applicable to Maine. And those ranting about the old rule, that was changed; it can be classified as VERY OLD SOUR GRAPES.

How dare a state move into the digital age and do away with direct mailing costs. It really perturbs me that they have the audacity to send past applicants like 5 or 6 reminder emails telling you the lottery deadline. If they were really money grubbing, would they really send you so many reminders so you do not forget? Wouldn't they skip sending reminders so your bonus points would be forfeited and the applicant would have to to buy all those multiple packs of ten chances again?

Most of the quotes mentioned are clueless individuals. I will just take the ones about "Outfitter Welfare" and one Zim1 was so happy to put into capital letters. I agree with no 100 permits to the guides, I would classify it as an ADDITIONAL 100. If Zim knew anything about Maine's relationship with the guides and how additional tags are given out, then he would not say this fended off outfitter welfare. But I am ok with how they do handle their management tags.

And for those ranting about putting in for years, tell me how these changes do not benefit you?

Why not start a thread for first time applicants and let them rant how screwed they are because long time applicants get so many free extra chances?

Its a lottery. If you do not apply you get no chance. A lottery by its own definition means no guarantee. The preference point creep in western states will see changes too. Because those with max points are not getting guaranteed tags. I have not researched it, but strictly by known constraints; I doubt any state has ever guaranteed. And as with most lotteries, there are always more losers than winners.

And if you just want to tag a moose, then yes there are many options. But do not misinform those into thinking the caliber of moose is the same in all states or northern provinces.

Agreed, just go to Newfoundland, Ontario, Alberta or BC any year you want. Lotteries are so confusing and they take time, money and you may never get selected. Go this year it's later than you think!

From: Zim1

Dude, You are delusional and fighting a totally losing battle.



Quit trying to make it out like it's one nonresident complaining about your state's horrible draw system. There are thousands of residents complaining about and quitting the moose lottery.

Did you not read your own legislator's quotes above? What part of "broken system" don't you understand?

I told you for years the Maine system was a ripoff to those who bought points 4 or 6 or 8 or 10 years ago. And you asked me......"then why do you keep buying points?". And I told you......."because I knew the draw system was so rediculously inequitable it was only a matter of time before sportsmen bailed and legislators would be FORCED to fix it". You said "Hell no, followed with with the same BS you spewed in your post above". :)

Well, let's flash forward to 2012 and see what happended......."applications from residents have declined by 50 percent and from nonresidents by 37 percent. In the last two years alone, applications have decreased by a stunning 23 percent." Your own legislators finally wake up and admit they made a huge mistake (quotes above) and try to fix their abortion, just as I predicted. Surprise, surprise, surprise. :)

Now you tell me what other state has had a total collapse, 50% decrease in any big game hunting tag lottery applicants. ........Oh ya, except maybe in Wyoming 2008 when the soccer moms got wolves returned to ESA status. Haha. :)

From: bb

I'm pretty sure you called his baby ugly.

From: Stickman24
If anyone really wants to moose hunt in Maine then they should just buy a auction tag. Tags can go from $7000-$10,000. Saves time and it's a tag of your choice. Maine doesn't have big Moose you say? New state record was shot this year 66" scored 221 BC with many 60+" bulls taken this year. We had 7 clients this year that were first time applicants and one client who had been applying since it started. You never know. It's worth the money.

From: sticksender
Are you sure about that 7k price? If you're talking about the 10 tags auctioned by the state, the MDIFW website states: "Winning bids for 2012 ranged from $9,760.00 to $11,234.56". Add in the NR hunting license fee at 114.00 and you're pretty close to 10k as a minimum. No doubt a sweet tag to get though.

From: daleheth
I apply in ME, VT, NH for moose and PA for elk every year. I know that it is a loooong shot that I ever get selected in any of those but it is worth it for the chance because you never know. I know people (luckier than me) that have drawn in those states.

From: caribouken
Good Lord! My late Oct./Nov. trips to NL for 5-day, 1 x 1 guided bring and cook your food hunt has been $3,000 inc. lic. but not the taxes. Hunt out of a fine lodge w/4 x 4s. Friends go w/me and split gas, lodging, etc. Some nice animals are taken and the take has been nearly 100%. Not all taken are bulls, but it has been a great time there.

From: XMan
Dude, the baby is so so ugly.

I stopped the application bullcrap last year for VT, NH, and ME and booked a hunt in Newfoundland.

For what I have spent over the last 12 years, I could have paid almost 1/2 my hunt. Plus what folks dont take into account are all the expenses you are still going to incur to go on the hunt.

Be done with it, save your money for 5 years and go on a guided hunt where you will actually see moose and likely take home better memories and meat!

From: Xman59

So you got 4 or 5 quotes of the 190 legislators, and you can CAPITALIZE it as facts because its less than 2 %. Or 4 o 5 residents of a 1,000,000 total population? The legislation percentage is even less, when you consider some are ex legislators; so that would be ever legislator since the 80's. Hard a fact to put up as hard facts. Just shows how desperate you are to use one or two quotes and say, see the whole state agrees with you.

I love this complete lie. "."because I knew the draw system was so rediculously inequitable it was only a matter of time before sportsmen bailed and legislators would be FORCED to fix it". You said "Hell no, followed with with the same BS you spewed in your post above". :)"

This never occurred your quote or mine. What I did tell you constantly is there have been several changes. I have always said you started out when there were options of multiple purchase. So how can you complain when its always been multiple. You never said you were waiting around because you were right. Please stop that. But please show me the post where that shows up. Since you put it in quotes, you must of copied it from some where. So post a link where it is. I will even apologize if it proves out. So gauntlet thrown down.

In fact I have always said the system will adapt, and I was the only one promoting perspective changes, much like what were done. Like a heavy weight average or special pool.

The legislators DO NOT run this lottery. So everything with that premise is more BS.

I have not see the decline numbers you say. True or not, I rather see the numbers that say its based upon the lottery chances or the basic economy downturn. I do see many lotteries are down due to the recession. But as I have always said, it is always wise to adapt your model to changes in your parameters. Like this is the 3rd or 4th major change since you started applying.

So major big game drops the last couple years. Thanks for giving me Wyoming, but I will add MN. That's two.

Its a lottery. Its a lottery that you have always applied to that had multiple options for NR. There has never been maximum points guaranteeing anything. No guarantees because its a lottery. As the old adage goes.......we know what you are, we are just establishing your price.

Those still have not applied the deadline is this 5/14/2013 11:59

From: Xman59
Zim1 Do you know your facts are out of date and out of sync with the current change?

You reference another blog site from a thread written in 6\10. Your article starts two years later. The article also admits it did not even have the 2010 revenue numbers. So the article you used this year has 4 year old information. Further more if you want to say its a money should worry about total revenue and not concentrating on applications. There is a dilution by applications, that is not comparable between NR and R. The change between total revenue between 2008 and 2009 was 9%. An issue to be looked at, but not as outrageous as the numbers you wanted to use. But definitely old numbers.

From: Xman59
Of course, those who have been applying for 9 years or less get screwed. So the question is Zim, you need to take a side.........good for you and screw those who have only been applying for 9 years. screwing 80%(quick calculation) of the other applicants for your benefit.

And this can be hardly called short term if the multiple has been going on for more years than it has not.

From: Delmag1942
All this got me to throw my hat in!!

From: Mainer
The first hunt was in 1980 for residents only and I drew as a teenager. There was no hunt in 1981. An annual hunt has been held every year since. As a resident I have never missed a year and this will be try number 32....I think. I just have bad luck but I also know several other residents who have never drawn. And to think I drew a Montana sheep tag in three years.....maybe this will be my year

From: Xman59
Got some more current application from 2011 to 2012 increased 4500 applicants. Far from its 94 high, but on the RISE.

Great number.........recent herd assessment......over 75,000 animals.....Moose lottery dollars at work. opening more WMD's, longer season, and may start to see increase in permits issued. Debate on acceptable harvest number for a herd this large.

And this is a significant number for the 2010 lottery. At this time there were 5600 applicants with 12 bonus points. This would be when the bonus point system started in 1998. There around 9100 applicants in the system with the multple choice option of lottery. And about 36,000 with the unlimited choice option. I do not have the next class of applicants for the most recent changes. Those numbers have not been found yet by me. Of the 36,000 number, it includes 15,400 applicants that have 0 bonus points. Quick summary 2/3's of all applicants have been under the unlimited option.

Except for the breakdown of 0 BP's and 12 bp's....almost a linear progression from 11 bp at 1200 to 1 bp at 6200.

So this information when interpreted should help relieve some fears. If you consider what some say an acceptable harvest rate would be for this size.......Then 3400 tags a year might be very low.

It really looks like Maine has spent their lottery dollars very well for the sportsman.

First time I've seen this type of breakdown...sheds a lot of light.

From: mox_ct
Ouch, and just think my son drew NR in 5 years, I drew NR in 13 years, and hoping my wife will draw NR after 13 years. It may also depend on how you put in your hunting zone preferences...

From: Zim1
Xman, I have had several of your locals PM me that you have a screw loose. One gave the best advice to not waste my time debating you, but it's so easy, why not. I like letting fellow hunters know the truth, so they can make a rational decision.

It would help if you would stop inventing new words, and write in complete legible sentences. Some of your sentences don't make sense.

My comments with supporting links speak for themselves. It does not take a rocket scientist to see how peddling 10 packs of chances is just plain wrong. Ask your own legislators.

You talk like I am the only one criticizing the rediculous 10 point packs. Just go up in this thread and see how many agree with me, including your own residents. Enough got so pissed off they finally got their legislators to stop it, at least for themselves. But nonresidents have no voice, so they continue the screwing there.

From: Xman59
Zim1.........I have yet to be called "Barney Zim1 Fife" on a thread.

I only correct your facts. I do not make up quotes like you do either.

Like using 2 year old data to say the applications are decreasing. Yes since 1994 they are down. but actually on the increase with CURRENT data.

Again since the BP system started 1998, one could also buy multiple chances. Or one could of stopped in 2004, when the unlimited 10's started. But you rather complain when this was all done out in the open. This "dilutive" affect existed from the inception of the bonus points. If there is abuse in the 2004 changes, then also blame all your other NR. They are the ones buying all these chances and screwing you over. An honest person would at least blame the NR hunters and the state. Guess where that leaves you?

Ask my legislators? I know the majority support the system. But those who do not were probably the same percentage of legislators, who wanted to stop the moose lottery after the first test hunt. So please know those you side with. Even if a minority.

And as for pm's to support you, I would put those in your exaggeration box. Of course, should i put much faith in a clandestine PM from somebody, who cannot own it and say it directly?

The bottomline for hunters should be this. Has not Maine spent their resources well and building up their moose population? Have they not expanded the opportunities for everybody? Its a lottery. Its NOT guaranteed. Its always been stated "once in a lifetime". There is no entitlement here.

But please continue to insult my grammar or spelling and make up facts that are false or old. It seems if you got pm's saying my facts were wrong, You would of put that first on your list, before my spelling and grammar.

While you are at it, you should slam Maine's 2013 Disable Veteran Lottery for a Control Hunt; because you are not a veteran or disable. How dare Maine screw you on those chances too. That is such "bait n switch" to dilute the general moose lottery odds, by giving preference to individuals who were wounded while serving our country. You think the legislators stay awake at night thinking of ways to screw you personally?

The online deadline is May 14 11:59pm . Remember no guarantees its a lottery.

From: Mainer
Life long resident....this will be year 32 in a row. I have no problem with the way the draw is for a resident but frankly the NR get screwed with the possibility of some buying unlimited chances if you have the cash. That part isn't fair. I have hunted in numerous States as a NR and most states have different rules. Either play by the rules or move on

To claim the system is unfair and that is why the number of applicants has been decreasing is too simple. Why has the number of turkey hunters decreased by about 30% while the hunting is some of the best in East?

I can feel for the NR who can't afford to buy hundreds of tries. But at the same time getting mad because they haven't drawn in 15 years? Even in the best of times 30-50 NR apply for every one tag. Heck the odds say I should have drawn twice .......maybe this year.

This Topic has been locked. Thank you.

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