CO moose Pref points
Moose
if you have 3+ weighted points for moose in CO and you put in for a preference point, do you get an extra weighted point for the next year's draw? thanks
Thanks, is it the case that you get 1 weighted point for each unsuccessful year after 3 points? So theoretically chances go up each year? Heard average draw time was around 7 years (for unit like 18) or is it very random and can take a lot longer.
I'm not sure what the average is but it can anywhere between your 4th year and never. The stat pages on the CPW site can give an idea.
Good luck! I have 8 weighted and never get the unit 18 tag. The odds do not go up as you would think. Go to the CPW site and see draw works. It all depends on the random number you get.
The link explains weighted draw procedure
Max WP is up to 14 or 15 now. 3+0 is all that is needed. Pretty much dumb luck.
Theoretically your chances go up each year you are unsuccessful and get another weighted point. Think of it as your name being put in a hat for each weighted point you have, the more you have the better your chances but it's still random draw. If you look at the draw statistics there seem to be a few guys each year that draw with 3 plus 2 or 3 and there will be guys that don't draw with 3 plus 8 or more. Like mathewsman said it's pretty much dumb luck. As long as you have your 3 you have a chance.
Most of the guys I know who draw have Max points. But a few get lucky and draw with less
'DUMB LUCK FOR SURE"
Last year there were 114 bull tags for residents and 13 for non residents
Also 166 cow moose for residents and 16 for non residents.
Consider that 75 % of applicants put in for a bull tags.
How many applicants?? Over 22,000
Dumb luck, you bet. Cow elk applicants have a better chance.
my best, Paul
Paul,
Lots and lots and lots of cow elk licenses left over every year! Much better chance of drawing:)
Started putting in for moose before there were PP's and have not missed any. Sitting at 3 + 15 after last year's draw so will be at 3 + 16 going into this year's draw.
Tavis
"Heard average draw time was around 7 years (for unit like 18) or is it very random and can take a lot longer"
Currently the odd of drawing Moose in unit 18 bull is about 4% if you have 3+14 points or 0.3% if you have 3+0 points. last year 65 people with 3+14 put in and only 2 of them drew, while one person with 3+0 drew!
So your second question is more accurate- It is very random and it can take a lot longer (like never) or you can get lucky and draw with 3+0!
Average time 7 years????
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
I'd cry if it wasn't so funny. Been applying for moose since 1988 without drawing!
Almost ALL Non-resident Cow Moose tags do not go to Non-residents, they go back into the allocations for Residents (probably due to price).
Resident Cow tags are pretty much 3 PP's to draw- just as ewe sheep tags are anymore.
Tgun46- NO, your name is not put into the hat for each of your weighted points- you have one draw number just like everyone else that has 3 Preference, just your draw number is calculated a smidge lower because of those weighted PP's.
The new Draw Summaries give the acutal tags allocated for the Weighted PP's in that specific draw for that tag...
Just remember Moose tags are allocated out for the unit, not the specific method of take (Archery, Muzzy, and Rifle) are all drawn from the same pool, and if you draw you are allocated the tag you applied for- which you can also turn in and switch it to a different method if you so choose.
Generally speaking you have just under a 2% chance of drawing a bull moose tag in Colorado if you have at least 3 points. The weighted points do statistically increase your chance of drawing and based upon 2015 draw results is appears those with max points have about a 4% chance.
So you can say max weighted points doubles your odds of drawing, but when the percentage is so low to start with, doubling a low number is still a low number.
It is essentially a lottery ticket, put in and hope, but certainly don't plan your year around drawing a CO moose tag.
Ramhunter
Colorado NR Bull Moose draw odds continue to plummet, due to rapid growth in applicant numbers.
The NR applicant pool, not even including those NR's who apply for points only, has increased by 75% since 2009.
year - NRapps
2009 - 492
2010 - 596
2011 - 642
2012 - 701
2013 - 762
2014 - 802
2015 - 863
There were 13 bull moose tags awarded to NR in 2015. Of the 863 apps, 734 had 3 PP and were therefore eligible to draw. For average draw odds of about 56:1.
If this trend continues, and I expect it will, due to the continued publicity & promotion of these hunts, odds within a few years will fall to 1% or less, meaning a majority of NR applicants will be unable to draw in a lifetime of applying.
Idaho draw odds are way better on average. If I was applying in only one state for Bull Moose, that's where I'd spend my money.
Tgun, it actually has nothing to do with the analogy you describe. Your weighted points are simply a divisor of the final number assigned by the random number generator. A high number divided by 15 is still higher than a low number divided by zero.
Thanks for spelling out the process, didn't realize that its more like the CO Lotto. Will just keep throwing in and hope for the best. Wish all of you great luck as well.
To figure out an arbitrary "average" you need to look at where the majority have the bulk of weighted points. If the majority have between 7-9 (I haven't looked because it won't help), there is a higher probability a few of them will have random numbers assigned that when divided by 7,8, or 9, will yield a low final number.
But that doesn't mean any individual has a greater chance of getting a low random number to begin with, than any other individual. Which is why someone with 3+15 only has a tiny bit better chance than someone with 3+2.
I did some calcs when I was in 'the game'.
I found that a CO RES has a SLIGHTLY better chance of drawing if they apply for a Resident Only unit opposed to a NR/RES unit.
Another tactic is to apply for a 'new' moose unit [ this year is Unit 43] Maybe, just maybe you have a SLIGHTLY better chance on drawing as most people are applying for the more well known units - 6/7/17/171/8/18/181/etc
Remember, each year someone get drawn.
Good Luck
I'm 3+2 for a cow tag some guys I know are as high as 3+5 for a cow I'm feeling lucky though!
Sorry for the miss information, thanks for setting me straight mathewsman and jaquomo. Either way it is basically just a lottery and hope you get lucky. Took my dad 3 plus 12 to just draw a cow tag a few years ago as a resident.
What is a "Weighted" point... Thanks
Not much really....I think the entire system stinks. I know of nearly a handful of people that have drawn in their 1st or 2nd year of eligibility while so many have been trying for almost 20 years and can't get a tag. Doesn't make sense to me. Oh well, just sour grapes I suppose because I fall into the later category. :-) Just keep trying! Good Luck to all!!
Its easier for a NR to draw a cow tag than a resident because the pool of applicants is so much smaller. There are some units where a NR can draw a cow moose tag almost every year.
Weighted Point = A term used to give applicants a false sense of confidence.
I do not enjoy sending all the upfront money to Colorado, especially with such dismal chances of being drawn.
Yeah loesshillsarcher, that is why I haven't applied CO in about ten years, and since then they've somehow, somewhere come up with this "weighted" term... I left preference points on the board, does that mean I can still use them "weighed"?
I think any points accumulated after the initial three years are to be deemed weighted points? for sheep, goat, and moose.
Drew a ewe sheep tag as a CO resident, I think the year was 1999, but anyhow thought about trying to start building points again, so I looked up my old, old, notes, and this is my direct quote noted back in the day:
“Bighorn, Goat, Moose application deadline, April 1st, must a apply within 5 years of last application to maintain preference points. (I must apply in 2004 to keep my 2 goat and 2 moose points. Currently have 0 sheep points)”
So imagine those points are gone forever and can’t be used as “weighed” points???
The current big game regulations, pg 12 state:
Points accumulate: if you fail to apply for OR have not purchased a license during a 10 year period, all accumulated points for that species are purged.
Check your CPW points record to see if you have any.
Paul
In Colorado you must first apply for three years with zero chance of drawing to earn three preference points. After that each year you apply and don't draw you earn a weighted point. To be used as explained above. This applies only to sheep, moose and goat apps. Zbone sorry but your points are gone man.
The NR husband and wife I helped last year both drew cow moose with zero points, first time applying.
But for any moose with antlers, you will need 3 to jump in the pool.
I cashed out my points on a cow since the majority of everyone I know has near Max WP's and has yet to draw- excpet maybe Kirby and John who seem to have some sort of Moose license every time draw results are out-ha.
Due to cost, and such mininal odds, I don't apply for Goats, or Moose anymore- I figured one was good enough for me.
If I were not a native Coloradan, I probably never would have been able to afford the tags even back in the 80's when I drew my first sheep tag. Now it's just dumb expensive for a Non-resident, although if the quoted figures for Non-residents Sticksender posted are correct, it seems much easier to draw a Bull Moose tag as a Non-resident compared to Resident odds in many units.
The NR husband and wife I helped last year both drew cow moose with zero points, first time applying.
But for any moose with antlers, you will need 3 to jump in the pool.
