Best Moon Phase for Elk
Elk
Getting ready to plan this years Elk hunt in Eastern Oregon.... What is the best time based on Moon Phase? I know the best time is the time I'm hunting and they kind of are where you find them...
But if you had a choice, which moon phase would you hunt?
Todd
Since you asked...
I went thru this little exercise a few months ago with another guy who ran my numbers.
Me and my buddies have taken 22 elk [archery] in the past 10 years
16 harvests were in a moon phase of 50% visibility OR LESS [some were new moon, 1st quarter, etc] 6 harvests were in a moon phase of 90% visibility OR MORE [very near or at full moon]and quick research shows 3-4 days on either side of the full moon date have > 90% or more. Shall we say 7 days are 90% or more visibility? And approx 14 days have < 50%
Category Observed Expected # Expected
1 <50% 16 11 50.000%
2 >90% 6 6 27.273%
3 50-90% 0 5 22.727%
Chi squared equals 7.273 with 2 degrees of freedom. The two-tailed P value equals 0.0263
According to the analysis we did better than expected when the moon was dark, about what you would expect near a full moon, and less than you'd expect (zero) when the moon was out but not bright. It shows some evidence that it's better hunting during darker moon, but I wouldn't schedule a hunt around it.
Good luck
Of all the factors that can influence elk, moon phase sits right at the bottom of the list, IMO. Regardless of when you hunt, hunt hard and you'll do just fine.
Brad... ha ha, blowing our minds with physics. :-)
Elk are still moving they might leave their feeding areas earlier on a moon. I've trapped bobcats in box traps for years and you just as well shut the doors in the 10 days around the moon. It's a well known fact animal patterns change with the moon and given the choice I would choose no moon. It's nice walking country in the dark that you don't know with a full moon though.
If you are hunting an area that is hot plus a full moon....take a guess when the elk will be active? If it is rainy, cloudy, or cool with full moon the elk may be a little more active during daylight hours. If the unit you are hunting is almost totally sagebrush it likely won't matter as much as a unit with dense trees. I always consider moon phase when I'm considering a tag that takes many years to draw.
The answer is the moon phase that falls when my vacation falls. Cuz it's the only moonphase that counts. LOL
Scoot, your post highlights a theory I've believed to be true for a long time. This certainly isn't an indictment of everyone, and it certainly isn't meant to be one of cnelk. My theory is based on observations of people I've hunted with, as well as those I've talked to through the years.
I believe there's a reason many people feel a full moon equals bad hunting. Same thing goes for too hot, too dry, too many hunters, bulls not talking, etc. Either consciously or unconsciously, many people simply don't hunt as hard when the conditions aren't what they consider ideal. They'll use it as an excuse to take a day or two off, sleep in, etc. The less effort they make, the less chance of success they'll have, which only reinforces their opinion.
Then there are those that realize that if they wait until conditions are ideal, they may be waiting a LONG time. They bust their hump regardless of moon phase, temperature, moisture, etc. Because they are out hunting hard regardless, their opportunity for success is much greater. They very well may have to adjust their tactics depending on conditions, but flexibility is one of the greatest tools an elk hunter has at his/her disposal.
Obviously I'm not saying this is true in all cases, but I've seen it often enough to know there is a lot of truth to it.
Scoot
If my memory serves me correctly, [as some data is 10 years old :)] all but 1 elk were taken in the morning. With morning hunts being 4-5 hours long. And evening hunts being 3-4 hours long.
I have no idea how that factors in any equation, other than we do very well in the mornings.
Also, We killed 2 more elk this past fall, 1 in the morning, 1 in the evening, but I have not gathered that moon data yet
It is key to remember that I/we hunted when I/we could take time off work or get away for the weekend.
I cant say I dont look at the moon phase when planning my hunting time, but I do factor other contributing items ahead of the moon phase.
I look to see what it is, then forget about it. I've never seen a difference in good elk country in NM and AZ. A scrub state like we have here in OR, it seems to make some difference but the Elk are different too.
I agree wyo with your theory to some extent. However it's hard to deny that elk and deer typically move back to bed earlier when the moon is full in the morning. This just means you have to hunt closer to the bedding areas. Given a choice ill choose no moon but if I draw my second or third choice and its a full moon hunt I give it my all because that's the time im there. Most of us love the mountains but I doubt many go to sit around the camp fire and eat bon bons. I think these people in your theory are more camper than hunter. They are just going to get away from wife, job, whatever and don't really care about killing an elk.
Based on 30+ years hunting, if it's near a full moon (especially if it's hot), you will not see as many animals during the day. I notice nobody is saying their hunting has been as good or better than usual around a full moon.
Do I hunt hard anyway? As has been pointed out, you hunt with what you get. I know when I am scheduling my hunt this year. I hope the full moon scoffers are hunting the full moon (hey they get first crack at it a lot of places).
wyobullshooter, that's a good point. Hunting elk in the rain could potentially be the best time to hunt elk, but most guys would never figure that out if it were the case.
This year, I could hunt every day if I wanted to.... but I have other obligations that are important to others in my family... (wife) I'm wanting to spend 10 days out... probably 6 of those days will be backpacked out solo someplace. The other 4 days I'll be hunting with a buddy but in the same general area.
It's usually hot...high 70's to high 80's where I hunt. Lots of cover and lots of streams throughout. The season is basically the month of September. I want the best chances and our rut seems to always run very late if at all.
I'm leaning towards the last two weeks of the season but we have a full moon that goes to new moon...
If my chances were better towards the early season, I'd go then but the area here just doesn't hold very good numbers...
I'm not trophy hunting... any legal bull will do. But I do want the best possible chance.
I'll use a back-to-back year scenerio hunting the same LE South Central Utah elk unit that can be exceptionally warm and dry in Sept as an example. The first year I happened to draw a tag...scouted hard for 1 1/2 weeks prior to the season and barely saw an elk. It was full moon and around 80 to 85 degrees each day. I finally figured out a couple canyons that held lots sign....and bulls. Once the season started it was still full moon with 75 to 80 degree days. I hardly heard a bugle nor saw elk except at sunrise/sunset. I hunted from dawn to dusk and spent most of the days hanging out at wallows. I really didn't think it would be too terribly smart spooking elk out of their daily bedding areas. Most mornings the elk were in the deep, cool trees before daylight and didn't start heading down to the wallows/rutting area until dark. I hunted hard 9 days before I finally connected.
The following year my buddy hunted the same exact canyons but had 0 moon. It also rained several days and was 50 to 70 degree temps. The days it rained bulls were active and out in the open ALL DAY LONG. Even on sunny days bulls got up and moved around during the daylight hours. Bulls were actively chasing cows/bulls until around 10:00 AM each morning and came back out of the trees by around 3:00 most afternoons.
I was amazed at the difference in elk activity in the same canyons in back to back years. This was a unit with almost non-existent hunting pressure. With full moon and hot daytime temps the elk just didn't want to come out of the trees until dark.
My buddy and I both ended up getting bulls....but it was a lot easier on my buddies hunt. I'm sure if there would have been a few rainy days during my hunt it would have helped...even with a full moon.
Obviously waiting 20 years to draw a limited elk tag it may be to your advantage to pick a year with 0 moon...especially if it's in an area like Southern UT, NM, or NV! I always try to align everything in my favor when drawing high demand tags! If you are hunting a general unit you can draw every year....go for it and hunt hard during a full moon. You may want to save applying for a tag of a lifetime until a 0 moon year?
Interesting stuff. I have seen no appreciable difference between moon phases in 20 years of archery elk hunting.
jims, Why would you think the moon had anything to do with the elk activity between those two seasons? It sounds totally weather related to me.
@ Scoot Over 90% of the time we hunt the 2nd week of season. Right before the ML hunters come and stir up the areas.
So whatever the moon has been the 2nd week of season in the past 10 years, we hunted it. Per the data I stated above. The reasoning is that the elk are there are that time.
For instance, this year the full moon is the 15th of September. During ML season. I wont be hunting then, not because of the full moon, but because of the pressure of ML hunters which is a greater factor.
@jims Did you and your friend hunt the same part of the season 2 years in a row? Or was one earlier or later? Just curious
I've noticed my beard and nails grows very fast around the full moons.... and once this gal in Zortman wanted to take me back to the reservation... that was a moon a person could hardly imagine....
Personally I'd hunt whatever the moon did between roughly Sept 16th and say the 26th.... that's the moon I'd hunt whatever it was.
Weather plays a far more important role IMO, when that first cold front comes through the mountains seem to snap to life like somebody hit a switch.
Good info... There is almost no chance of weather where I hunt... The occasional thunder shower or maybe a drizzle for a few hours. I'm going to go the last two weeks of the season and hunt hard like always... See what happens.
Hard to refute actual elk data from cnelk and very interesting it's slanted to less moon - makes sense. However, Deer and Deer Hunting magazine ( yes I realize that elk and deer are different) just had a super article on the effect of the moon. Data based and very intersting. Long story short, moon has NO affect on deer sightings/activity. Very possible that elk are similar.
Its all in your heads. The moon phase plays as much role as what brand of jacket you have on... sure some will swear by only hunting one phase or the next and have real life data to back it up. But it is all circumstantial and just dumb luck. Researchers would be hard pressed to measure the huntability of bull elk all over the country on any given time... everyone always says the elk are where you find them and so on, just goes to show that the only way to get one is to get after them whenever you can.
'Chi squared equals 7.273 with 2 degrees of freedom. The two-tailed P value equals 0.0263'
And that's why I love Bowsite; there is someone on here with The Knowledge :-)
September 15, 2012. 11:20am. Day before new moon
There is some data in these 2 kills that is interesting but it has nothing to do with the moon phase.
September 19th, 2013. 3:00PM. First day of full moon
Cnelk - you need to take a better look at your calendar. The full moon is the 9th.
Youre right! Even better!
No question the biggest moon possible so I can see when I'm packing my bull out at night.
Otherwise: TD X3
For some very easy to read & to understand information & graphics on moonrises & moonsets in your hunting areas, click on www.usprimetimes.com and enter the closest zip code/ and the month/& week to your hunting areas, then print it off. It will give you all the information you need for each day of the week. From the information I saw for Colorado, its looks like the week of Sept. 21st will have the best daytime hours for hunting according to the moon phases for that week.
I agree that the weather plays the bigger roll of the two in this equation, and that you should hunt hard when ever you get to hunt, but the moon DEFINITELY plays a significant roll in Elk day light activity...
Full moon was a few days ago on the 18th, I brought a bull in just past 8:00 am on the 20th. Adequate shooting light was a twitch before 6:00. He was a mile from his bedding area and still feeding, milling around with his cows. A long way from bedding at first light and was simply following their normal behavior for these Elk. We haven't had rain or a weather change in weeks; still hot and dry. There are a million things that can change their habits. One spot they're bugling their heads off and 2 miles away they don't make a sound. I just roll with whatever they give me.
I posted this over on the other moon thread too...
Moon phase is the least of the important factors for me. I just thought is was a neat exercise to see when we killed the elk compared to the moon. Weather, hunting pressure play much more of a role for when I hunt.
Just last night, Paul@the fort stopped over and we were discussing the ML factor where we each hunt. Both of us stay out of the elk woods the opening weekend of ML season because of all the pumpkins.
But knowing that pressure reduces later that week, back into the woods we go.
But there are other places where the ML hunters have no effect on the elk
Weather is something we obviously cannot control but I have areas where a 2000ft rise in elevation means crappy rainy weather when its just cloudy lower.
The most important factor should be planning the MOST AMOUNT of time in the woods as you can. Roll the dice on the moon phase, weather and hunting pressure and be prepared to adjust accordingly.
