DJ
Joe
If you buy a point in Sept, your odds of drawing a General Tag in 2015 will be good and you can hunt a large % of the state with that tag.
The way I understand it, if you don't draw in the PP round, you name goes into the random round and you have another shot.
Even if you continue that trend, you'll still have a 52.6% chance to draw in the PP round next year and then around a 19% chance in the random draw. That puts your real odds going in at far above 50/50.
EDIT: Extrapolating the trend in random draw odds, it'll be more like 18.6% in the random draw, not 19.
878.5 tags out of the original 1200 is a 73.2% chance of drawing going in with 1 point, provided that's the way the stat is calculated. I can't remember, but I think that's how it's calculated.
Of course, these numbers could be up or down when you figure in the funky special draw roll over and all that, so...
I'm not going to do the math with trend extrapolations to guess what next year's % chance should be with 1 point, but it's well above 50/50.
Keven
I would just advise you to be careful when throwing out numbers on draw odds because if they are not correct, they can detrimentally affect people's hunting decisions.
Case in point, a few years back as I started applying in different states, I read someone say that if you started applying in NV for elk now, you basically had no chance of ever drawing and that it was pointless.
Well, that is not true, but with that info, I decided to not start applying there. Not until another year went by and I educated myself better on what the odds really were, did I start applying the next year. Because of that decision, I have one less point for elk, deer, and sheep in NV than I could have now and I regret making that decision.
Up until a couple yrs ago, a NR had at or near 100% draw odds for a general license with 1 PP. In 2013, those odds dropped to around 85%. This year, they dropped to 66%. Two yrs don't make a trend, but it is an indicator. If the odds drop at the same rate they have the past 2 yrs, they could very well approach 50% next year. Not saying they will, but they could.
TODDY didn't say not to buy a PP this year, or not to put in next year. He was just saying that odds of 50/50, or even 66%, weren't great. I agree with that, especially considering up to a couple yrs ago it was basically a guaranteed draw with 1 PP.
If you look at the stats for this year and the past couple years, the reason the odds had been coming down, was because there were less tags available to people with 1 PP, but this year, it was because of less tags available to people with 1 PP AND a slight increase in people applying with 1 PP, compounding the effect. Maybe that's because of HF, maybe that's because of the back-and-forth with tag price increases in WY prior to the draw, or maybe it's just because more people who hunt CO OTC every year see hero shots of people who hunted WY GEN and took a look at the success rates.
wyobullshooter, I'm well aware of the decrease in the odds, I quoted them and I'm well aware of the trend, as noted in my posts.
"Two yrs don't make a trend, but it is an indicator. If the odds drop at the same rate they have the past 2 yrs, they could very well approach 50% next year."
No, if you read my posts, you'll see that "if the odds drop at the same rate they have the past 2 yrs," then they will be above 50%. More like 60%. Maybe I'm slicing hairs, but in the world of NR apps, 10% is a huge difference. Of the 40 or so apps I'm putting in this year around the country, in not a single one of them do I have a 10% chance of drawing.
I'll acknowledge the point, that it's not a sure thing. But I never said it was a sure thing. All I said is that the numbers don't trend towards 50/50... and a number of 35% was even thrown out there...
Thus my point, don't just throw out numbers.
Last year, 1 PP odds: 80.7%, this year 66.67%. Those are the real numbers, WITHOUT the random chance added.
This is the quote: "80% last year. 65% this year."
But those numbers are not only wrong (by 1% in the PP round), but they don't take into account the random chance. Did you read that post where I showed that the odds of drawing this year was actually 72.3%?
There's a big difference between 65% and 72.3%, especially when you continue to use faulty numbers to extrapolate a trend because they compound year after year.
I agree, the trend is that the odds of drawing with 1 PP are going down, but like I said in my first post, they're not going down as fast as stated. It could be 50/50, but the stats don't agree with that and they certainly don't agree with 35%.
He made the comment that next year could be 50/50 based on the past couple years. Heck, it could even be 52.6%. (BTW, that's the number you came up with). Since this year's odds were roughly 65%, that meant 35% with 1 PP didn't draw. Again, this wasn't just some wag that TODDY pulled out of the air. He simply stated he was one of those 35% that didn't draw in the PP draw with 1 PP.
If you want to include the odds for the random draw that's great. However, that's not what either Topgun or TODDY were referring to.
"...a General tag..." is what he said, not ...a General tag in the PP round..." Drawing "a General tag" is drawing "a General tag."
Likewise, no where in TODDY's post did he say "in the PP round."
They were talking about drawing a tag. Period. No where in their posts did they say "in the PP round. And when discussing odds of drawing "a General tag," it is ridiculous to consider it without the random draw because it increases the odds so much... to about 72.3% as I pointed out.
The 2nd comment was that it could be 50/50. In fact, he even stated "I'm one of the "35%" this year." Again, he did not specify in the PP round. My number that you quoted, would be closer to 60% with the random % added in.
Here's another interesting fact: Over the past 3 years, the rate at which people with 1 PP have NOT drawn in the PP has actually slowed from 17.3% between 2012 and 2013, to 14% between 2013 and 2014. If that trend continues, you'd have a 56% chance of drawing in the PP round. Adding in the random round, that puts you closer to 2/3rds odds of drawing with 1 PP than 50/50.
Topgun suggested the OP buy a PP tag. Why else would he suggest the OP buy a PP unless he was talking about the PP draw? PP's only come into play in the PP draw, not the random draw.
Since every figure TODDY gave were basically the exact figures for the PP draw, it was actually quite easy to determine he was referring to the PP draw, including the 35% that didn't draw with 1 PP that you seem to have a hard time comprehending. If he was referring to the random draw, I feel pretty confident he would have used those figures instead. If someone says the sun will come up, I can pretty well assume they mean in the morning, even if they don't say in the morning.
After all we've posted on this issue in this thread, I can't believe you put that last sentence up. He will not be assured of drawing a tag in 2015 with 1PP UNLESS he puts in for the higher priced Special Draw as a first or second choice IF things don't change. As you stated, it could get to the point in the next year or two where a second choice in the special draw won't give you an automatic general tag.
Because if he bought a PP, his odds would be more than 3 times higher in the draw.
2014 odds with 1 point: 72.3% 2014 odds with 0 points: 19.62%
He was trying to give him the best odds for getting a tag. Obviously, buying the point increases odds of drawing. I don't understand why you'd even ask that question.
"Since every figure TODDY gave were basically the exact figures for the PP draw, it was actually quite easy to determine he was referring to the PP draw...If he was referring to the random draw, I feel pretty confident he would have used those figures instead."
Or, he was ignorant to the real odds of drawing, which is what I'm assuming, based on him not using the correct numbers when referring to the draw, the State of Wyoming not publishing the "real" odds of drawing figuring in the PP and random draws, and the fact that, despite spending 100s of hours per year pouring over draw odds across the west, I had to do the math today to figure out what the actual draw % was because, not only is it not published, it's obviously not common knowledge.
I'm not saying the sky is red. I'm just quoting real numbers. You've yet to counter that my numbers are wrong, because they're not. Nor have you posted any official numbers that contradict my numbers. I've quoted them off of published numbers. What you have done, is put words in other people's mouths in an effort to argue a point that is ridiculous.
At the end of the day, when you apply for a tag, the odds are what they are what they are, no matter how much you want to slice and dice it.
There were no words put in anyone's mouths. Topgun suggested the OP buy a point this year, since that would give him 1 PP going into next year's draw. All TODDY did was make a couple comments that he didn't feel 1 PP would give the OP "a great chance of drawing" in 2015. He also stated that, based on the last 3 yrs, he'd bet the odds would be about 50/50 next year. As I stated earlier, I don't think 65% (66.67% actually)are great odds either. I also agree that, based on the past 3 yrs, the odds for drawing a general license with 1 PP could very well approach 50% next year. Only time will tell.
For his trouble, TODDY was told he was just throwing out numbers, and that he is ignorant to the real odds. I felt that was wrong. Always will. Since he was referring to the PP draw, there was nothing wrong with his numbers. If you wanted the random draw brought into the discussion, all you had to say was a simple "even though the PP draw odds are trending down, don't forget that if you are unsuccessful in the PP draw, you'll be automatically entered into the random draw, which has been holding at about a 20% success rate". You would have made your point without accusing someone of just throwing out numbers and calling them ignorant.
"As our other member tried to explain, that increases your chances quite a bit compared to just being in the one draw that had 66.6% odds of drawing this year."
Topgun, nobody will just be in the one draw that had 66.6% draw odds this year (1PP pool). Those that were unsuccessful in the PP draw will automatically be entered into the random draw. And yes, there was a statistical chance that nearly 20% of those unlucky 35%'ers drew a random general tag, same as everyone else.
Honestly, I think everyone is saying the same thing, only from different angles. I just get tired of the name-calling and crap that goes on when someone's just expressing his or her opinion.
Bottom line, there are 3 different drawings that people can enter in order to draw a N/R elk license. They are the special draw, the regular draw, and the new Super Tag draw. For both the special and regular draw, there is only one way to guarantee you will draw your license. That is to accumulate enough PP's to draw in the PP draw. The sooner you start to accumulate points, the sooner you'll draw the tag you want. How many points it will take depends on the area and sex of the animal you want to hunt. There are areas that aren't 100% draw even for max point holders, and there are areas you can draw an antlerless license with 0 PP's. Most fall somewhere in between. Those that don't draw in the PP draw will automatically be entered into the random draw. All those in the random draw have the same chance of drawing as everyone else, since PP's aren't used in the random draw.
As long as you don't draw your 1st choice, not only won't you loose your accumulated PP's, you'll be awarded 1 PP for that year, provided you include the PP fee with your application. If you choose not to include the fee with your application, you can still purchase your PP separately for that year from Jul-Sep.
As far as general areas go, it varies. Those areas that are reasonably close to the major population areas of Wyoming, such as Cheyenne, Laramie, Casper, etc, can be a zoo. Lots of hunters, and lots of roads/trails. Good hunting can still be found, but it's getting to be more of a challenge each year. The only places a N/R needs a guide is in a designated wilderness area, which are few and far between.
Good luck, Robb
Actually you are incorrect in those statements and for those who don't know how Wyoming is set up I'd like to explain how the WY draw works for NRs. There are four different draws for nonresidents for elk, deer, and antelope. Let's just leave the new raffle tags that anyone can purchase out of this and talk about the four draws for NRs. In Wyoming the NR draws are split such that 75% of the tags go to those with PPs and 25% to two Random Draws where no PPs are used. There is a Regular Random Draw (no PPs used) and a Special Price Random Draw (no PPs used) along with a Regular PP Draw and a Special Price PP Draw. The Random Draw with no PPs is the last one held and everyone that was in the others and didn't draw is included in it, which obviously increases your chances of drawing a tag. That is why I stated the OP had a great chance at a tag since in 2014 statistically 2 out of 3 people drew the tag BEFORE they were even placed in the random draw where they then had another 20% chance of drawing. You can debate all day using just the one PP draw stat, but it is not as meaningful if you want to talk about the overall chances of the OP drawing the tag and that's why I used the word "great". To me a 70%+ chance of drawing a General tag just paying the regular fee the first time you enter in Wyoming is great considering that tag is good for over 50 units, a lot of which are as good or better than LQ units taking a number of PPs to draw. To continue with the way Wyoming does the draws, within that 75% and 25% those tags are then split such that 60% go to those who pay the regular price and 40% go to those who pay the higher price for the Special Drawings. Most of the time, but not always, by paying the higher fee you have a better chance of drawing the tag. That is based on the theory that even though they only represent 40% of the tags that there will be significantly less people paying that higher price. Every year, including the 2014 elk draws, you can peruse the stats and see where people drew a LQ tag in the Regular PP drawing with the same number or less PPs than someone in the Special Drawing. It's very difficult just to look at certain stats and make statements of fact that are 100% correct because of the way tags are rolled around from one draw to the next in WY. I would bet that most people don't even realize that even though a person doesn't have any PPs they are first entered into the regular PP drawings and have a chance to draw a tag there if there are more tags available than applicants ahead of them with PPs. That's a fact and is stated right on the G&F website in the application booklet. Therefore, in certain circumstances even those with no PPs have two chances to draw a tag.
Reread my first 4 or 5 posts. There's nothing nasty in there at all. All I did was post the real odds so that people thinking of applying would know their true odds.
It only started getting course when you started saying "this is what this guy meant and this is what that guy meant," and you hold to that even though Topgun came out and said that's not what he meant...
Non-sense, all of it. You accuse me of trying to convince people that "the sky is red," when all I did was post WY DFG numbers and did the math, which you dismiss out of hand without showing that my math is wrong. And then, to top it off, accuse me of starting "name-calling and crap..."
And the reason I'm not letting it go is because you're just like Woody. You will jump on anything that anyone says and argue "all week," with the difference that Woody is general arguing with facts at his back instead of against facts. I'm not going to let you get away with jumping on everything I say, just like you have to punch a bully in the face to get him to stop taking your lunch money. If you have something worthwhile to say, I'll concede the point like I did when you pointed out your special situation with your DL. I'm humble enough to admit when I'm wrong. Maybe you can look over my numbers and if you can't find where I'm wrong, do the same.
You are correct that we can debate what constitutes a great chance at drawing till the cows come home. That is nothing but subjective opinion anyway. You and Iydll look at it as a combined 70+% chance of drawing (random and PP combined). I've never looked at it that way, nobody I've ever talked to has looked at it that way, nor does Wyoming G&F. We consider each draw separately. This year there was a 66.67% success rate for those with 1 PP. Of those that didn't draw, their odds of success dropped down to 20% in the random draw. The overall figures are exactly the same. One of those glass half empty/glass half full situations. Neither is wrong, just different ways of looking at the same thing.
I'm well aware that even those with 0 PP's are entered into the PP draw. That's why I gave the example of people drawing an antlerless license with 0 PP's. As you state, that information is clearly stated in the application booklet, as is the statement that those that aren't successful in the PP draw will automatically be entered into the random draw.
Idyll, not once have I dismissed your figures. The only thing I have disputed was your accusations that TODDY was just throwing around numbers, and was ignorant to the drawing process. That's just not true. His figures are just as correct as yours. The only difference is his figures are based solely on the PP draw. If you can't understand that, I honestly don't know how to make myself clearer.
Yes, Topgun posted later what he meant, but in his first post, he suggested the OP purchase a PP. The ONLY reason to purchase a PP in the first place is to increase his odds of drawing in the PP draw, since 1 PP will give him a decent chance of drawing in 2015. On the other hand, he will have 0% chance with no PP's. However, he will have the exact same odds of drawing a license in the random draw whether he buys a PP or not. That PP has nothing to do with the random draw.
To answer your question again, yes it is very realistic. You do need to do some homework, just like with anywhere else, and have a few different options at your disposal. Keep in mind there may be others in your selected area hunting other species or doing other activities. These may or may not have an impact on your elk hunt.
