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Draw Odds Question

This might be a dumb question but I don't know the answer so I'll ask anyway. I'm trying to calculate my draw odds. For the unit I picked there are 15 NR tags. There are 64 1st choice aplicants. If I divide 15 by 64 I get 23%. There are a handful of 2nd choice and a few more 3rd choice applicants totaling 109 applicants. If I divide 15 by 109 I get 13%.

So my question is which is the true draw odds? Since all the tags will be gone before a 2nd choice gets drawn, does that mean only 1st choice applicants will draw meaning I have a 23% chance of drawing? Or does it mean regardless if it's your 1st, 2nd, or 3rd choice you're in the pool no matter what?

Are you asking about New Mexico or any particular state?

Calculating your total draw odds of drawing "a tag" in NM is very difficult. Best to just calculate individually and not worry about splitting hairs.

PM me your zone and tag if you don't want to post them publicly.

In a state like Wyoming just look at the first choice and in your scenario it would be a 23% chance of drawing. In NM where there are no PPs and they give you a random number it's pretty much impossible to calculate.

In NM you would divide 15 by 109 for 13.7%. That would get you pretty close but your odds would be slightly better because some that chose that hunt as 2nd or 3rd choice might draw a different hunt on an earlier choice. I'd say call it an even 15%.

NM odds are impossible to calculate unless you know everyone's three choices and have a fast computer and a lot of time. Dividing the number of permits by the sum of the 3 choices is the best guesstimate and will give you a good idea of the relative probability of drawing one hunt code over another.

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