Wyoming Resident Preference Point System
Elk
After reading the most recent quarterly journal of the Bow Hunters of Wyoming that included a proposed preference point system for Wyoming residents, I decided to see how this would affect my yearly draw odds. The proposed preference point system has a 50-50 split of licenses shared between the random pool and max points pool.
This is what I came up with:
Area 38-9 elk area:
Year 1 odds: 33% (proposed) versus 33% (current) Year 2 odds: 37% (proposed) versus 33% (current) Year 3 odds: 41% (proposed) versus 33% (current) Year 4 odds: 49% (proposed) versus 33% (currrent) Year 5 odds: 60% (proposed) versus 33% (current) Year 6 odds: 87% (proposed) versus 33% (current) Year 7 odds: 100% (proposed) versus 33% (current)
At first glance, this system doesn’t look too bad considering I have only drawn 4 tags in 12 years and 12 years ago, the odds of me drawing a tag was around 65%. Where this 50-50 program really doesn’t work is when you draw your first tag and try to get your next license and fall out of the max points pool.
Year 8 odds: 18.7% (random pool only) versus 33% (current) Year 9 odds: 18.7% (random pool only) versus 33% (current) Year 10 odds: 18.7% (random pool only) versus 33% (current) Year 11 odds: 18.7% (random pool only) versus 33% (current) Year 12 odds: 18.7% (random pool only) versus 33% (current) Year 13 odds: 18.7% (random pool only) versus 33% (current) Year 14 odds: 64.7% (back into max points pool) versus 33% (current) Year 15 odds: 100% (max points pool) versus 33% (current)
Here is what it would look like if ALL the licenses went to the max point pool:
Year 1 odds: 33% versus 33% Year 2 odds: 49% versus 33% Year 3 odds: 96% versus 33% Year 4 odds: 100% versus 33% Year 5 odds: 0% versus 33% (because you are now at the bottom of the barrel) Year 6 odds: 0% versus 33% (because you still have quite a few people ahead of you with more points) Year 7 odds: 93% versus 33% ( because you now got back into the max point pool) Year 8 odds: 100% versus 33% (max point pool)
To me, this is a much better system, but I think some people who draw all the time will not like the fact that there will be two seasons you have no chance of drawing.
I think a lot system would be even better... year 1 your name is in once, year 2 it's in twice, then 4, 8, 16, 32, etc. increasing exponentially until you draw...
To me that makes more sense then a max point pool...
I agree. Your odds would go up each year you don't draw so those people would see it as an improvement over the current system. And, you would still have a chance of drawing every year so those people wouldn't feel like they are getting shafted. This new preference point proposal is scarey.
The root problem is too little supply, too much demand.
The reality is no matter how it's presented, anything that INCREASES odds of some folks correspondingly DECREASES the odds of others.
Even though you have a chance of drawing every year and "wouldn't feel like you are getting shafted" the bottom line is you still are even if it doesn't feel as bad.
I don't see how odds of getting a tag can go up without the odds of not getting one going down?
In the current system we all know of someone or are personally experiencing huge droughts between drawing tags. You blink and the next thing you know is that you are 42 years old and you have only had 4 tags from your late 20's through your 30's. While you know of others who draw every year or people who have just moved to the state and draw 4 out of 5 years.
I understand supply and demand all to well. I just think there is a need for a change in the current system and I am not the only one. There is no one that I have talked to about this who is happy with the current system and that's not just a couple of people. And, I have not talked to one person who likes the current system.
Good conversation brings out good ideas. I like the modified bonus point system mentioned above.
Yes, when the odds of one person drawing a tag goes up the odds of another will go down. By not "getting shafted" I meant that you wouldn't have a chance at all of drawing the next year and drawing your initial tag. That's pretty much how it works with a preference point system. Once you draw, you will go quite a while without much of a chance of drawing your next tag.
I am not in favor of the point system at all. Looking at what it has done to the moose and sheep odds I don't think my kids will ever have a chance to draw. They need to leave it alone and quit trying to fix things that are not broke. There plenty of good general areas to hunt in if you don't draw out.
This is why I brought this thread up. The legislature took this all the way into committe in 2013 and it will probably come up again. It is also being discussed by Bowhunters of Wyoming (B.O.W.)in the most recent quarterly journal, so this is a pretty hot topic. There are a lot of people not happy with the current system and they want change. I would just hope that we investigate the change before we do it and really mess something up. I'm not really in favor of a preference point system, especially one that splits the tags 50-50 as I mentioned at the top of the thread. I am interested in following up with the modified bonus point system mentioned by gil_wy. It just swings the odds in favor of the guys who aren't drawing a little bit.
PP systems have no place in high demand tag draws. If the unit can wear away point creep such as that the tag can be drawn in a few years, then PPs work, otherwise, PP systems are not sustainable.
I don't want to hijack your thread about Wyoming, so I'll start my own thread.
There are a few good general areas that are 2 weeks long that I have hunted when I don't draw the 4-week long type 9 permit that's in my back yard, but I shouldn't have to 4-5 years in a row.
Yes. So in the case where you'll get a tag every few years, then the PP system works with or without a random pool.
The problem is, the higher demand areas cause point creep.
See my explanation in my thread.
I agree with what you said in the other thread. I am a little skeptical of a PP system, especially one that splits the tags 50-50. With the elk example I gave at the beginning of the thread, it makes the odds of drawing your second tag horrible. If you put all the tags into the max point pool, the odds aren't too bad. I do like the idea of bonus points squared. It might be the fairest alternative to what we have now.
"If you put all the tags into the max point pool, the odds aren't too bad."
For now.
There is very little difference between a PP system with a random pool and one without, other than it given a "chance" to newer hunters.
The PP system with a random pool causes point creep more quickly, but they both cause point creep unless there's enough tags to only cause a short wait.
If there's too large of a disparity between tags and entrants, both systems will end up causing point creep.
Puke you are looking at a system similar to utah maybe you look closely at the after math of such a system. Point creep sucks and it comes to all pp systems sooner or later why because demand is larger than supply. Which by the way is the reason for your current drought of tags
I would support change of some kind, and I'm glad to see that folks are working on it. However, I LOVE that I have my stand by General areas to hunt every year when I don't draw. It would drive me more batty to not be able to hunt for consecutive years like in some states, rather than just be patient while hunting general EVERY year. I put in for the same unit Gil does every year, but have only hunted it twice in ten years, going on 11 this year. That hurts considering the amount of time and effort I've put in to get to know the place!
I have taken a lot of cows there with my bow, while hunting General for Bulls with my bow. But that is a consolation prize to say the least.
We'll see what comes of this, it'll be good to see what your brains have in store.
I personally would prefer all even odds for everyone. Pure luck of the draw. Would make it at least possible to draw the best units and ,more fun to be in it.
So if Points are the Draw Answer----
How come every State with a point system in place have Max Ressy Point pools in the 20+ points and still have not drawn??
Screw Points--Period! Ressy or Non-ressy---
Good luck, Robb
"..., but I shouldn't have to 4-5 years in a row. "
and therein lies the problem. Nobody thinks they should have to wait. Basic arithmetic would lead anybody to the conclusion that given the number of tags and the number of applicants, everybody will have to wait. Of course you could you just make the whole state OTC then everybody gets that tag they "deserve".
Without a pref or bonus pt system odds of ever drawing high demand tags are pretty much 0. With most draw systems it gives those that have applied for more years a little better chance to draw.
I've been fortunate to draw a pile of great limited tags over the years thanks to pref/bonus systems. All systems ARE NOT created equally and some are better than others.
If you think about it, tags aren't going to get any easier to draw without a pref/bonus pt system. If you think your odds are horrible with a point system just think of what your odds are like without any pt system in place. I strongly believe that those that apply the longest should be rewarded for applying for years and years...rather than having worse and worse draw odds without a pt system....as more and more people continue to apply each year for tags.
I don't think anyone deserves a tag. I just think your odds of drawing a tag should increase the more you are unsuccessful in the limited quota draw. The main reason I posted this thread was to let the hunters from Wyoming know what the proposed preference point system looks like that the legislature proposed in the Spring of 2013. Most of the people I have talked to who are proponents of a preference point system believe that if the odds of drawing a tag in the current system is 33%, then in a preference points system, they would be guaranteed a license every 3 years and they are fine with that. That is not how our legislature is writing the bill.
Absolutely the worst thing that could happen in WY. All preference point systems result in opportunity loss over time... No way around it. You guys are blessed in WY with have the most fair and equitable system around! A true lottery gives everyone the best odds!
Anytime there is preference given it comes at the cost of someone else! Learn from Colorado about how they system works. Watch as you see your favorite area go from 0 to 1 to 3 to 5 etc... It sucks! Hybrid systems help a little but unless your lucky enough to get in on the first year year you are truly screwed!
As a resident I am one under max points, I have been putting in for 7 years and appear to be another 6 or more to go until I get a chanc at my tag.
There is no reason to go to a pp type of system other than greed!
Mr. Smith,
You need to go with the input of your Ressy hunters and Discard the non-ressy posts.
Good luck, Robb
I have a feeling that conservative Wyo residents may never pass a pref/bonus pt system. Unfortunately Wyo res have a horrible taste in their mouth due to Wyo's joke of a sheep pref pt system. That's an example of a pref pt system going sour from day 1!
I'm certainly glad that Wyo offers nonres pref pts! I've drawn many antelope, deer, elk and a moose tag since they started pref pts. I can certainly understand why Wyo res are apposed to a pt system but for nonres it's been a great deal!
jims: "I have a feeling that conservative Wyo residents may never pass a pref/bonus pt system. Unfortunately Wyo res have a horrible taste in their mouth due to Wyo's joke of a sheep pref pt system. That's an example of a pref pt system going sour from day 1! I'm certainly glad that Wyo offers nonres pref pts! I've drawn many antelope, deer, elk and a moose tag since they started pref pts. I can certainly understand why Wyo res are apposed to a pt system but for nonres it's been a great deal!"
I see you're touting the PP syetem you love so much, but please don't say it's been a good deal for anyone other than yourself. If there was a vote by NRs tomorrow I'b bet money that they would eliminate it and go to a straight random system like it used to be. Just a look at all the units that are taking max PPs or close to it to have a chance at a tag for deer, elk, and antelope. If it keeps going the way it is now in just the first 8 years with those three animals it will be just like the sheep and moose draws that people are waiting decades to draw. Any time it takes more than 5 or 6 years to draw a tag after the system has only been in place for 8 years is a recipe for disaster. If the Wyoming residents get a PP system ofr those three aimals, they will be sorry in less than 5 or 6 years when they see their sure fire tags arent so sure fire.
Topgun, I'm doing anything but touting the Wyo prf pt system. I'm just saying that conservative Wyo residents likely won't go for it...and I don't blame them. It's a fantastic deal if you are a Wyo nonres...and can do a little research and think outside the box!
I beg to differ....Take a look at how many antelope, deer, and elk units take max pref pts to draw...there are only a handful. Those handful of units would have IMPOSSIBLE draw odds no matter what the system. If you think draw odds are tough with pref pts wait until you see what your draw odds would be without them!
I've draw 3 EXCELLENT limited elk tags the past 9 years, one of the best muley tags in Wyo a couple years ago, EXCELLENT antelope tags just about every year, and one of the top 2 best moose tags in Wyo a few years back thanks to the Wyo pref pt system. My draw odds would have been dismal of ever drawing any of those tags (except possibly antelope) without pref pts. There are fantastic options available for all species but bighorn and moose if you are willing to think outside the box and use your pref pts to your advantage!
Topgun, Since this is a bow hunting website I thought I would fill you in on the type 9 archery elk draw in Wyo for nonres. In 2014 there were 0 units with type 9 tags that take max pref pts in the special draw. In fact, almost all type 9 nonres tags took 0 to 5 pref pts to draw in 2014. There are EXCELLENT type 9 units that can be drawn with 2 to 5 pref pts! Not too shabby!
