Contributors to this thread:
I frequent another site that used to have a draw odds caculator for the different states. They have since quit doing that so my question is does anyone know what my odds are for drawing unit 1 in AZ as a nonresident with 10 points? I imagine pretty low but just wondering. Bull elk archery first hunt.
Thanks WapitiBob I knew you would know. How many points does it take to be in the max pool for unit 1?
I drew Unit 1 archery last year with 13. I think that is about right but not sure how point creep effects the draw.
Thanks Mr. Whitetail thats about what I was thinking. The old saying "If you don't have enough points to draw it now you probably won't ever have enough" comes to mind.
6x6bull, for $25 a year you can go to hunterstrailhead and get access to the Draw Odds program that used to be on monster muleys. It's about the best/easiest one I've seen.
Thanks jdee thats the one I used to use. Now that I am getting closer I seem to pay more attention to the draw odds than I used to when I knew I had no chance.
Prior to the opening of the 2015 draw the Article 1 data will be made public. Reaction to that data could alter the applicant pools. Predicting the max pool for any unit would be meaningless at this point in time.
There will be a new odds report from the dept, after the close of the 2015 Elk application period, populated with 2014 data, showing the res/nr breakdown on a per hunt, per point basis. Based on the conversation I had a cpl weeks ago you should be able to look at the report and know exactly where in the line you are with your points.
WB, I probably missed the answer to this question at some point, anyway, I currently have 11 points. Going into the 2015 draw, is the new point added prior to the draw?
http://www.azgfd.gov/eservices/documents/bonus/5-2014/2014%20Pronghorn%20and%20Elk%20-%20Bonus%20Point%20Report%20-%20Bonus%20Pass%20by%20Hunt%20Number.pdf
You guys with 10 or 11 points have about a 0% chance, and your carrot will really get yanked after that with the reg changes. I posted this on the AZ forum previously. If you have 13 points you should be around 50/50, as WB mentions on that thread.
If we don't draw in 2015, I don't know what we'll do. Will be a whole new ballgame after that.
Sports, AZ updates point totals after each draw cycle, Spring and Fall. If you had 11 going into 2014 draw your totals will be updated and you'll have 12 going into 2015. Your points should be current and show what you will have going into 2015.
An exception to the above is if you take the January one day NR supplemental hunter ed class. Don Martin walks the results to the dept and they add that point immediately.
What is going to happen in AZ with points/draw in 2015 ?
Rumor has it that the NR will only be able to draw up to 50% of the up to 10% max of their tags in the Bonus Only round, leaving up to half of their tags to be drawn in the 1/2 round pass. Currently in most of the popular elk and deer hunts, there are so many NR's with lots of bonus points, the up to 10% of the overall tags for NR is coming out of the Bonus Pass round and any applicants with less than max or near max points for that hunt have basically no chance without max points for that particular hunt. For NR's AZ is basically functioning as a preference point state with those at the top of bonus points being the only ones drawing tags. This will make it a true bonus point draw again for NR's.
The 5% bonus round NR cap will hurt max point NR, but help those with less than max. Your unit 1 archery bull odds will go from 0% chance to about a 1 in 4910 = 0.020367% chance!
So, if I understand this right, point creep in the top tier units will be about twice as bad and, as someone who just got in the game, my odds will go from zero to almost impossible?
I REALLY want to hunt Arizona one day so I'm going to stay in the game, but man does it sting shelling over the $175.00 every year for a piece of paper telling me that I'm theoretically one year closer to drawing a tag!
Point creep is rampant in every quality state! Consider a private land hunt especially if you are over 40! Good luck!
Changes will be available during the comment period prior to 2015 draw, implemented for 2016 draw.....
The wait for NR max pool applicants will double. Odds for NR in the 1-2 pass for early archery units 1, 3's, 7's, 8, 9, 10, 23's and 27 will go from 0 to maybe 1%. The dept is very aware of the implications to the max pool applicants but they're also aware of the hunts that couldn't be drawn by anyone but those max pool apps.
I'm beginning to wish all states were just a pure random draw. Makes it a lot easier on everyone, although I would feel bad for the guys with max points.