A technical note, AZ does not separate res and nr in the draw. NR applicants vie for the same tags with residents, NR simply having a "cap". My take is that the 5% will be hit in the Bonus Pass for nearly every hunt. I doubt the 5% will get hit in the 1-2 Pass except for the best hunts. The proposal is a win/win for residents with a miniscule odds increase for NR in the 1-2 Pass.
They were supposed to have the new odds report done months ago, which would give us a clear odds picture but now I believe that new report will be packaged with the membership portion of the customer portal.
IMO this is a very hollow "enhancement". If there was genuine intent to improve things for NR's, then the draw algorithm would be re-written to allocate a separate fixed 10% share to NR's. Then split the 10% NR share 50/50 between max-pts and random for NR's. That surely wouldn't require breaking new ground from a coding standpoint, as it's already being done that way by multiple game depts across the west.
Is that about the gist of it?
Southern, with 10/11 points for Elk your only real options are units 4/5/6.
What AZ is doing here is reinstating a BP system. As it stands, their system was a de facto PP system that could be compared with a hybrid of CO's and WY's systems, whereas, you basically had to wait your turn but had a tiny chance if you weren't in the PP round, but not 25% of the NR tags like in WY.
If this change goes through, the system will be very similar to Utah's system, without a guarantee quota, which is unfortunate, as it will potentially cut NR tags.
I'm slightly more optimistic than Bob though. I bet that even mid range units like 4 and 5 will get their 1-2 quota met and I think so because NRs typically have more points and I think our numbers are such that you won't see what happens in MTs moose draw where a lack of a designated pool results in max NR tag quotas not being met. Furthermore, I think a ton more people are going to apply for 9 with one of their 1-2 choices which will free up a small amout of mid range unit chance opportunity.
If we have 5% NR apps in any given unit's draw, we'll fill the quota on points alone due to a slight advantage in overall tickets in the pot for the 1-2 pass, as it's still a BP system. If we're only 2-3% though, we might lose tags.
Another thing this will do is add point creep pressure of a little less than 50% of the current rate to the BP round. Some will draw early and lose their points, but it'll take years for those folks not drawing tags when they otherwise would have, to alleviate the point creep pressure they would have applied, but didn't because they drew earlier.
I'm also a bit more optimistic than Bob on the 1-2 chances. He uses the word "minuscule" to define the odds. I guess that'd depend on your definition of minuscule. If we do indeed absorb 5% of the tags, that's a fair amount of chance. You could compare it with the odds in the random round in Utah or, better yet, to about 2/3 of NM.
Sure, those odds are low, but they're certainly not insignificant. An older applicant may look at these odds and base opinion on having been applying for decades and being accustomed to drawing tags much easier. But this is 2015 now. The glory days of drawing great tags on a fairly consistent basis are over. Additionally, an older applicant may realize he doesn't have as many draws in his future and thus not as many chances to get lucky while holding out.
Still, if you're out for 9 in the draw, your odds are going to be terrible. But the thing is, at least you have a chance now. I suspect that odds in the 1-2 pass in units like 4, will hover around 3%, but they could easilly be 1%.
Additionally, for applicants that aren't shooting for the stars and are applying for mid range units (which are still great hunts in AZ), someone's gonna get lucky and draw more tags in the long run while the opposite is true for other people.
Each state's system needs a different strategy when looked at individually and when compared with the applicant's goals. I bet most people will hate it just because of the change. It has some redeeming qualities though, for instance, being able to "shoot for the stars" with your first choice and use your 2nd choice as your realistic goal.
If all you wanted was unit 9 and you're sitting on 15 points, you just got screwed. If you just entered the game at 35 years old and wanted a shot at 9, this is a good change because with current point creep, you had zero chance of hunting 9 in your lifetime (for the sake of argument, while I plan on living past 75, I don't make application decisions hoping to draw at that age or later).
If you are 2-3 points away from a unit like 27 or 1, you just got screwed because your wait is going to increase while your random odds of drawing earlier or at the same time as you would have, are going to be very bad.
If you've drawn in AZ in the past couple years, you may benefit a windfall of having reaped the benefits of the old system and then draw a great unit again before you otherwise would have.
Again, if I draw in the 1-2 round, I'm going to love this system.
I'm going to be very curious to see the draw stats the year after this goes into affect.
Bob, with all due respect, and I really mean that as I am but a lowly grasshoppa and you are the sensei, point creep still takes time to creep. It won't be retroactive, but rather, still take the time to creep. Year 1 of this change, with 10/11 points, one would have more options than 4/5/6. Not only that, but when looking at past point creep rates and extrapolating with the new system, with 10/11 points, one could hold out for 2-3 years and pretty much be guaranteed a better tag than 4/5/6.
Almost never.
Three years ago CA lifted the 'not more than one' restriction on NR sheep tags. It's now 'up to 10%,' which is more or less the standard in other states.
Simply put, if you are in the max pool for a given hunt or just under it, your wait will double. If your only opportunity to draw is in the 1-2 pass, your odds will probably increase, but could actually decrease in a few hunts. The increase can be calculated by looking at the 1-2 pass report and adding in the new 5%, understanding that nr can draw no more than 5% even if the 5% was not hit in the Bonus Pass. To see if there is a decrease you need to know how many nr tags dropped to the 1-2 Pass and I haven't posted those numbers for 2015. An FOIA request to the dept will get those for you.
And as far as not filling the BP quota in some units and forever losing those tags, even if that does happen, and I'm sure it would be on a limited basis, it won't happen very long as creep will weigh NRs in the higher pools more and more every year, more so than they already are. The average NR already has more points than the average res, we're just out numbered.
Seems I am always in the points position that gets screwed. Hah.
Maybe we can get USO to file another lawsuit. It was tagapalooza for me for a couple years there.
Even a separate quota to gaurantee us 10% would be better than what's been proposed.
CO is definately on board with that giving 20% high demand tags and 35% of the rest to NR. Think what your AZ odds would be with those allocations
My suggestion from the beginning of this was that a 'single guaranteed tag made it to the 2nd round allocation for every hunt code. IMO this would be enough to keep people interested in 'playing' the application game since many are willing to gamble for 1 tag anyways.' It was nice to receive acknowledgement from AZ G&F of this idea.
Secondly, this would allow AZ to continue to refer to 'their' system as having bonus points instead of the preference point allotment it has become in for so many hunt codes.
Having 50% of the tags drop down is unfair to the people already vested in accruing points, as their probable ETA to draw will mostly likely double.
18 points, and it appears I'm still playing the waiting game...
Its a good way to funnel more tags to residents. It helps guys like me with zero points that saw the writing on the wall and drew out while we still could....
It lowers a non res with points built up odds of drawing by a lot- Guys that have been playing by the rules- then the rules changed.
If I draw my 3rd non res Az elk tag in 4 years next year....I better make that thread "Debate free" as there are going to be a lot of PO'd point holders!grin
I commented previously but I want to send another more detailed. I looked through the AZF&G website under commission but found nothing except 5 individual contact forms for each of the five members. I'm assuming I can still send input through the end of the day today? Thanks.
Nick points out the problem with the current system and that the complaints have been a NR had zero chance to draw if they weren't diligent with their selections. The new system will change that, at a cost to the max point pool guys. Had I not drawn as an alternate in 2013, I would still be on the outside looking in, as Zim is.
Beendare, I believe I will draw again next year as well.
They can join the long list.........Utah, New Mexico, Wyoming, Colorado, Oregon, Nevada, Maine.
NM doesn't have points but they qualify by default for obvious reasons.
For what it's worth, I ended up writing each of the 5 commission members individually voicing my displeasure. Nothing else to do.
