The new rules, as I read them, will change the NR cap to 5% MAX in the Bonus Pass. In layman terms, NO MORE than 5% can be drawn by a NR in the Bonus Pass. The remainder, up to the full 10% cap will be available for NR in the 1-2 Pass. Be cognizant of the fact that res and NR are all lumped together and AZ looks at BOTH 1st and 2nd choices before going to the next guy.
In addition there will be a tag surrender option as part of their new "membership" program. membership costs will be tiered depending on services you want. Seeing the new draw odds report get pushed back I am guessing it will be included in one of those membership levels. I have not called to confirm that suspicion however.
Terry
In looking thru the docs I believe they are required to make it a available in the Bonus Pass and there, they can give out 50% but not more than. They also round the 10% down.
Good luck, Robb
For a solution to the "Point Mule" issue could model Utah's change. Once they realized Grandma was drawing a group tag every year and returning it, they changed the law to EVERY Group Member had to return the tag for the points to be reinstated.
The other way completely around "Point Mule" is to go like Colorado where you CANNOT share points, so the application goes to the lowest points in the app.
I have already resigned myself to keep quiet if I draw my unit 9 tag with long odds next year and only the one bonus point....
Bob, sent you a text
Idyll, the membership platform has not been finished and is set to go live Jan of 2016, with addl services added over time.
It does create problems for guys like my buddy with 12 points that THOUGHT he was a lock to draw the unit he wanted next year. So his 10-11 years of planning and buying the license every year goes out the window....he has a few choice words for AZFG.
It will be interesting to see how it affects a unit like 9- where it takes about 17 points to draw anyway. I can't imagine it could creep too much higher.
Does this handicap the NRs with high points and slightly favor the NRs with low-medium points?
The new draw report will eliminate all guessing but it's been put to the side unfortunately.
It's just an opinion but I don't see the NR quota being met in the 1-2 Pass for the mid to lower tier hunts.
Unfortunately, this solution would further discourage hunters from putting in with friends, or new hunters, which ultimately will cause the end of hunting. This already happens because of the point averaging. It would be even worse if they went to the lowest applicant's point total.
Statistically speaking this will have little to no affect on the vast majority of resident elk hunters who generally have way less points than non-residents on average. Why would we even care?
In my eyes it was less fair to have applicants applying for tags that there was no statistical chance to draw. After the last thread where most of the NR's seemed to not like the proposed change, I advocated to my local Commissioner to leave it alone. I also advocated for no change to the guidelines in regards to early rifle and muzzleloader hunts going before archery in some units on a rotational basis, but it seems both notions fell on deaf ears or my Commissioner was out-numbered on the votes.
All sarcasm aside, there's another way of looking at this: This screws people who like to save up a ton of points and then figure out where and when they want to hunt elk and deer in AZ or other western states where this sort of thing is possible.
It especially screws people who are as defined above and have been doing this for 12-15 years.
For those of us who know where we want to hunt and would take the tag any year, there's a potential for this to be a fantastic change.
I've made it no secret here that I think the western point systems are complete BS as they essentially favor hunters who were born between 1950 and 1970 who were already applying for NR tags and screw everyone who comes after, especially the PP systems, which AZ essentially was as far as NRs were concerned.
Either way you wring your hands, it's going to increase point creep for most units... but... but...
You might just draw early. Even back to back years.
For those of us who plan on applying to AZ for the next 30-40 years, this could be a good thing. For those who will only apply to AZ for another 10 years, you just got switch in 'the 'ol bait and switch.'
Seemed simple enough as it would keep the system as a 'bonus point' game instead of the de facto preference point deal it is becoming for an increasing amount of hunt codes. Additionally, this wouldn't screw the people that have been paying G&F's bills for 10-20 years.
Bill
The only people I see if impacting are the max point NR's by cutting their tags in half but then again they still get to participate in the pseudo random 1-2 pass).
The unit I continually applied for was essentially a 10 point unit that I knew would take a decade or more to draw...now as I see it I have a random opportunity to draw before that. Makes buying a license every year a bit more palatable.
The system still beats the full PP system in Colorado or the 100% random system in New Mexico. There is no perfect system but as a non-resident I think Arizona and Utah are as close as you can get to it. Having the random chance...even slim of drawing a strip tag or Unit 9/10 tag will keep people interested.
And Heat. I have to disagree. Regardless of what you think, this decision will benefit the residents more than NR's. Before, those tags in the premium units would have been guaranteed to go to NR's simply because the NR's have been waiting longer and have higher point totals then the residents. Now they fall back and are available to both residents and NR's. And the residents who apply for the draw FAR out number NR's. So who do you think will benefit from the change more? Get real....
Where did I say that we would not get more tags or that residents wouldn't benefit?
Did you consider that approximately half of the tags available are antlerless tags? How many non-residents do you know accumulating bonus points to go on these hunts? Think this is going to affect those tags much?
I stand by my statement that statistically this will have little to no affect on the average Arizona elk hunter.
This change does suck for guys like you that have 18 points no doubt, and as I mentioned I advocated for no change.
What is clear here is that you can never please everybody!
Take unit 9 for example. 100 bull tags with only up to 10 of those available to NR's. For the past several years, all 10 of the tags went to NR's in the bonus draw. Now half of those tags fall to the 1-2 pass where residents out number NR's by a huge statistical factor (wish I knew the numbers). With those kind of odds, just how many of those remaining 5 tags are going to end up in NR hands? If I had to guess, I'd say 0...
If Arizona guaranteed 10% to the NR's, we wouldn't be having this discussion. But the state fought that and won, which makes this little maneuver seem very fishy!
And I guarantee the number of cow tags going to NR's had nothing to do with it. Good luck with that argument...
Seems like you are the guy that doesn't get it!
I think you're forgetting that the 5 NR who get "kicked down" to the 1-2 pass are likely to have much higher points relative to those residents in the 1-2 pass. I don't think they'll have a problem getting the tags, statistically speaking.
Remember that higher points likely mean a lower draw number and thus earlier priority within the 1-2 round.
I'm with Heat on this one.
That's not really how it'll work for those 5 individual applicants you cite though. The top-tier point holders will each have only a very slight statistical advantage in the 1-2 pass. They're tossed in with the masses. Compare to a Powerball drawing....if you buy 18 tickets yes you have a better chance than those who only buy 5 tickets, but you're still very unlikely to win.
For the guy with a lot of points it will hurt for a guy with only a few points it will help. I drew two years ago so obviously I like the system because now I might draw again soon.
I remember when Arizona first set up their current system I predicted that it would turn into a preference point system. I put up a post here and on monster mulies. I was hoping Arizona would realize it and make a change like this to their system. Of course then I only had a few points which is why!
Arizona was smart to do this because they know if they do not they will loose a lot of nonresident applications.
I know around four or five years ago the trend in Arizona was decreasing applicants I am sure switching back to credit card applications change this but other than that one jump does anyone know if applications in Arizona still declining stable or rising?
Is there anywhere that shows if any units actually get to the 10% max for NR. I guess it will be a lot easier to max out our allotment.
Hey, where's USO? I miss their lawsuits...I drew two years in a row when they were sticking their fingers in AZ'a business :-)
Only positive thing I ever saw out of their existence.
I've got 12 or 13 elk points now so I guess I'm in no mans land, but, I'm a 2nd their kinda guy. I guess we will see what happens. Can't go next year anyway so another point it will be.
Like IntruderBN mentioned you'll have a lower draw number than the vast majority of NR's with fewer points. But the advantage still lies with the residents as a whole to cash in on those few tags pulled from the bonus draw due to their overall numbers far exceeding the NR pool as sticksender points out.
I'm hoping my AZ trip next year is for Goulds as I have 19 points for turkeys. I slipped up one year and missed getting my point or I would have MAX!
Non Residents will never get any beneficial changes, I'm just glad every now and then things go just right and I draw a tag or two out west. I love Arizona and hope one day I can spend my golden years out there. I appreciate the opportunity to play in that playground no matter how great the odds.
In my opinion it totally screws guys who have a bunch of points (16 or more). I can assure you many of those guys have been trying to draw tags over the years and were either un lucky OR did not fully understand the draw process. I believe in rewarding the diligent, dedicated buyers of license and applications. This group will without a doubt see dreams of a premium tag cut in half.
Now on the other hand if you are running a ponzi scheme and you are running out of newcomers to fund it. You need more applicants. If your applicants are paying attention which the vast majority are. You have to dangle a carrot.
Without all of the numbers and re visiting my Stats notes from college it is only a WAG. BUT In the end the NR hunter will likely see 7-8% of the available allotment and that really hurts when we were already a long shot even for mid tier units given then number of applicants for few tags.
All of the NR applicants points were diluted. It is simply a matter of perspective on what you believe will work best for you. As time goes on you can bet that point creep will prevail and they guys routing this on today will be scratching their heads.
Good Luck on the remaining seasons guys !
Where it also screwed the NR is those applying on a buddy tag. You go into the draw (bonus or 1-2 pass) as a single applicant, but should you get drawn there had to be enough tags available to fill your group (2-4). Now that the pool is cut in half, good luck with those odds as well. I've been applying with a friend who's one point behind me for several years, but the average of our points bumped us back to my point level. We're probably going to have to go in as separate applicants now that the pool has been cut even further.
Looking at the data I assume, based on applicant numbers, that the nr pool has a higher point average than the resident pool.
2015 archery 6a NR
Bonus Pass, 77 tags avail, 38 drawn
1-2 Pass, 39 tags avail, 39 drawn
3,706 res 1/2 choice apps
437 nr 1/2 choice apps
Good luck, Robb
