We won't have a real trend to look at in the special draw till after this year, but the odds could very well be worse than 50/50 this year for zero points. It's hard to calculate with the roll over to the regular draw and the fact that it's not been <100% for very long.
The total apps in the special draw for the General tag have been going up by 300 apps/yr for the past 4 app years and the creep is just started so it's tough to say.
In the regular draw, the odds should be around 15% for someone with zero points.
In the regular draw, with one point, you'll have about a 20% chance in the bonus round, then a 15% chance in the random round if you don't draw in the bonus round.
If you want a tag, put it as your 1st choice. You may have a small chance at drawing it as a 2nd choice in the special draw, but, IMO, if you want to hunt, it's not worth the risk for only keeping one point.
