AZ nr quota breakdown
Elk
Early Archery
UNIT; BONUS PASS AVAIL/DRAWN; 1-2 PASS; AVAIL/DRAWN
1; 15/15; 15/15
3A; 6/6; 6/6
3B; 3/2; 5/5
4A; 8/8; 8/8
4B; 6/6; 6/6
5A; 9/9; 10/10
5BN; 7/7; 7/7
5BS; 10/10; 10/10
6A; 35/34; 36/36
6B; 7/7; 8/8
7E; 7/7; 8/8
7W; 8/8; 9/9
8; 8/8; 9/9
9; 5/5; 5/5
10; 6/6; 6/6
11M; 4/3; 5/5
11M; 4/4; 4/4
16A; 0/0; 1/1
19A; 0/0; 1/0
21; 0/0; 1/0
22; 1/1; 1/0
23N; 0/0; 1/1
23S; 0/0; 1/1
27; 11/11; 11/11
Damn, no wonder I didn't get 23N! ;-)
I didn't either and I live there.
Terry
I was rooting for you.
The system seems to work, we got all but 3 tags
Thanks for throwing that up Bob..
Dan, it's just showing that nr drew the full 10% quota. There has been discussion as to whether or not that would happen under the new nr split.
I count 3 bonus tags and 3 1-2 tags we lost for a total of 6...
If it's 6 tags we lost, then we lost 1.91% of the NR archery tags to residents this year.
It's not insignificant, but it's not a lot.
Idyl, the tags not drawn under the Bonus pass were available in the 1-2 Pass. 5% max bonus pass, 10% max in the 1-2 pass. 6A as an example, the 1 tag not drawn in the Bonus Pass was available in the 1-2 Pass bumping the total available from 35 to 36.
Thanks W-Bob---->
Very interesting numbers breakdown.
Good luck, Robb
If a Unit has 85 bull tags are there 8 or 9 NR tags?
If a Unit has 5 tags are there zero or 1 NR tag?
Thx
Thanks for posting that info Bob.
Another 'fun fact' to see would be the number of bonus points held by the 1-2 pass winners for certain hunts like 23 & 9.
Bob, do you know if they will have a better report for figuring NR draw odds now? I have my sights set on a few low tier units and am curious as to approximately how long my wait will be. Obviously it will take a couple of years to get a good read on how point creep is going to affect them.
Thanks for posting this. We appreciate it.
Certainly not the doom and gloom scenario some predicted. What percentage did the NRs not draw which was available before the change?
So basically no surprise, except for the folks who decided to throw mathetical reasoning out the door.
Thanks for putting this up. With only 4 points, I like the system change!
NoWiser, A better draw report has been on the table since at least 2010. It was supposed to be implemented with the change to new software code in 2014, available prior to the 2015 Elk draw (populated with 2014 data). That obviously didn't happen. They have a real mess on their hands from the rumblings I hear.
edit
Bob,
I see that now. So what you're saying is we only didn't get our tags in 19A, 21, and 22?
So we lost 0.9% of the NR early archery tags to residents.
Idyll, yes.
Heat, 2015 numbers below. (thanks CM)
Data for Early Archery 2015
1-2 Pass draw
Hunt number; available - issued
1; 0-0
3a; 0-0
3b; 6-6
4a; 10-10
4b; 1-1
5a; 0-0
5bn; 10-10
5bs; 0-0
6a; 39-39
6b; 7-7
7e; 0-0
7w; 0-0
8; 0-0
9; 0-0
10; 0-0
11m; 4-3
11m; 7-7
16a; 1-1
19a; 0-0
21; 0-0
22; 0-0
23n; 0-0
23s; 0-0
27; 0-0
The number of hunts with a leading zero was the impetus for the change; ie a leading zero means all nr tags were drawn in the Bonus pass.
Actually NR may or may not have lost tags to Residents.
I believe that in a normal year, a very few of the lower-demand hunts were already giving less than 10% to NR.
Of course there's also the muzz, rifle, and late hunts to take a look at.
So the residents got 3 of the non res 10% max allotment of tags...no big deal. [EDIT; that 105 was supposed to be 10%] And guys like me with 2 points have a chance of drawing a premium unit before a guy with 15 years of applying gets his...awesome, then what is all the griping about?
No griping here, except that I didn't draw unit 9 with my 3 points.
Early and late rifle appeared to be about 50% of the NR quota at first glance.
Is there any data yet as to how many points it took in each unit and the number of random tags in said units?
The number of random tags for early archery hunts are listed in the first post.
The standard draw odds reports are not yet available.
Looks like the sky did not fall on the NR in the AZ draw afterall.
Its a safe guess TBerg....you are NOT a non resident that has been applying for 14 years that came up empty this year.....grin
Thanks for the breakdown, Wapiti
Thanks for putting this up.
I've been hearing from some folks that didn't draw a mid-tier area that normally had the points to do so.
I wonder how many hunters with the 12-14+ points decided to change their plans for the top tiers and cash in their points now on a mid-tier because of the changes? Hopefully that will only take a few years to go through the system?
My understanding is those guys were going to have a rough time drawing the top units going forward anyway if no changes were made anyway with point creep and the number of people in the max point pools?
At some point, if nothing changed there was going to be some suffering by somebody, the state is making sure it's not them. Many if not all PP systems are destined to crash as they are now.
"At some point, if nothing changed there was going to be some suffering by somebody, the state is making sure it's not them. Many if not all PP systems are destined to crash as they are now."
Not only are you going to see preference point systems like Colorado crash to cash, but you are even going to see those which use a percentage of preference/bonus (ie. UT, WY) shift a higher percentage to the bonus side. As mentioned, states are happy to screw point holders rather than lie in the bed they made for themselves.
