ElkNut1
That means you're looking at the 10th - 18th, or the 17th to the 25th. Tough call because the quality of your hunt could go either way in either of those weeks.
I prefer to have a little longer because your chances of getting into good action, finding elk, and finding out what's going on on the ground are better. Sometimes the bugling is far better on the 14th than it is on the 24th, etc, and visa versa.
Depends on what you want more of. Hearing bugles or putting an elk in the dirt.
I know what week I would go. The week prior to ML season. That ML week will up the number of hunters.
I would look at last years stats and see how many ML they issue for that LE unit. Might help in your decision
Thanks for your responses.
Prior to those 3 years, I've heard more bugling earlier and later.
Predicting elk activity/bugling is a crap shoot. It changes year to year, with the hot cows, with the weather, etc.
The best bet is to extend your hunting season as long as you can, which will increase your odds of better hunting and more chances. If you can't, the general consensus is that they bugle more a little later in the month, but that can be completely flip-flopped.
Did you read anything that was posted? You'll have your answer on the 26th.
I have learned that lesson. I will not limit myself to a week.
My plan this year is start traveling on the 9th and be home on the 26th.
In 2013 I hunted what should have been peak (23rd-early Oct), and I can count the number of bugles on my fingers. Other years things were just heating up as I approached those dates.
Previous years activity is only a guide, not a rule.
Full moon, no moon, wolves, fires, heat, rain, clouds, sun or magnetic pull, etc. No matter, I will be in elk country with my bow.
If you don't mind, what are your favorite and least favorite moon phases to hunt. I have had a lot of discussion with friends about this and there seems to be many opinions. I personally favor the darker periods, but I know some who think times around the full moon crank them up.
Which week(s) did your local buddy hunt them, and was he successful? Packing in a couple miles really limits your mobility. If someone else has been in there, or will be in there, your hunt could be a bust.
This will be my third year of essentially spending the whole season in the elk woods in this unit, and from my notes I've started to dial-in on where they are each week in each different area, and how they behave.
As far as the moon, that's the least important variable, IMO. Hunter pressure is #1. Weather is #2. Everything else is #3. The old time cowboys always said the best bugling is on the wane of the full moon in September. I've not found that to necessarily be true. A lot of old time cowboys didn't know squat about elk.
Since you asked... I went thru this little exercise a few months ago with another guy who ran my numbers.
Me and my buddies have taken 22 elk [archery] in the past 10 years [2003 -2013]
16 harvests were in a moon phase of 50% visibility OR LESS [some were new moon, 1st quarter, etc] 6 harvests were in a moon phase of 90% visibility OR MORE [very near or at full moon]and quick research shows 3-4 days on either side of the full moon date have > 90% or more. Shall we say 7 days are 90% or more visibility? And approx 14 days have < 50%
Category Observed Expected # Expected
1 <50% 16 11 50.000%
2 >90% 6 6 27.273%
3 50-90% 0 5 22.727%
Chi squared equals 7.273 with 2 degrees of freedom. The two-tailed P value equals 0.0263
According to the analysis we did better than expected when the moon was dark, about what you would expect near a full moon, and less than you'd expect (zero) when the moon was out but not bright. It shows some evidence that it's better hunting during darker moon, but I wouldn't schedule a hunt around it.
But it won't take long before they change their movements, more so due to pressure than the moon.
IMO - pressure makes a bigger impact, and heat is also a big factor
2007: 9/12
2008: 9/15
2009: 9/13
2010: 9/14
2011: 9/11
2012: 9/9
2013: 9/16
2014: 9/21
Good luck on your hunt.
Chasin
This would take all of the conjecture and mental bias out of it.
Joe
The P&Y-class bulls my partner and I have killed over the past 30 years ( we've only entered some of them) have come anytime between the third day of season and the last day. And we've both passed up bulls of that caliber on the first day, too early to shoot one.
IMO, the best time to hunt is when you have the longest window of time to hunt.
ElkNut1
I didn't read through all the posts but is your hunt at timberline or lower sage country? Obviously weather is cooler at higher elevation. If mid to lower elevation and there are lots of dense trees for them to hang out in all day it may make it tougher but they'll likely still be somewhat active on the cooler side of the hill. If hunting open sage you'll find them no matter what the weather and moon phase.
Bulls are a little easier to call in when they first start rutting. If you hit the right time period it can be amazing! That's where scouting helps out! The more time you and your buddies are willing to put in the more likely you'll be successful! What ever dates you pick hunt hard regardless of moon and weather.
Sure they're more nocturnal and head to their bedding area earlier, but that doesn't mean they still can't be had. You just have to forfeit a little sleep. Since they're generally more active at night during the full moon, you can use that to your advantage. Use those bugles to guide you right to them. Then, as soon as it's shooting light, you're right on top of them with plenty of time to make something happen.
Although they may head to bed earlier, I've also found they can be a little more active during mid-day, as well as earlier in the evening.
ElkNut1
I believe our hunt will mainly be at mid to higher level elevations. The mountain tops out at about 12,000 feet where we are hunting.
Once at your glassing spot your length of stay can be determined how big of an area you are glassing. 30 minutes to an hour or longer for larger areas is normal for us bowhunters, if a very small area then possibly less, staying longer doesn't hurt. Find several elevated spots via topo maps or by burning boot leather to do this glassing. Once elk are found, note their direction of movement. If in the morning these elk are in their feeding area or just leaving it & moving towards their bedding area, note their direction carefully & where you lose sight of them in the timber, they are most likely following a trail. That trail could be a promising ambush spot the following morning! Make sure you have wind in your favor at any ambush site before picking a setup spot near the trail but do not set up on the trail itself.
In country above timber line during early season or pre-rut, bulls can stay on the large open faces throughout the day & evening making it difficult to put a stalk on them in those wide open hill sides. Be patient, they will eventually move around for water & many times seek the comfort of the timber's coolness. Being there & being mobile & you may finally get your opportunity for the long awaited ambush.
If it's evening glassing ( last 2-3 hours of daylight) then elk are coming out of their bedding areas, again note where they are coming out of the cover or timber, this could be another very good ambush spot for an evening hunt! Watch that wind, you do not want to be winded even for a second or it's game over!
When at glassing spots & no elk are being seen then feel free to bugle from there with a very high note pitch, no chuckling or grunts needed here, listen for a response, if none in a minute do it again & listen, I like repeating this 5-6 times before stopping. Now sit & listen while still glassing areas over again. If at anytime you receive a bugle response do not bugle back, get their location & watch, listen & locate, you've now found them!
ElkNut1
As mentioned, Hormone-induced "Full Rut" is the #1 factor, followed by #2 hunting pressure and #3 weather. An estimation of when the rut will be in full swing is harder to make but my rule of thumb is always be in the woods hunting the second half of Sept.
Jaquomo is spot on about spending as much time hunting as possible. One week is cutting your chances considerably. Generally, I will hunt the full two weeks here in AZ and will have camp our set up a week before it starts. Usually, by the time opening day comes I have figured out where they are and what will be the best option to begin with. IMO, if you have just a week and have not hunted elk often, you will spend a few days of that, (at least), to get into the groove of what they are doing (rut on?), when and where they are heading (bedding areas- to avoid) and what individual bulls are available (targeted).
It's too bad you buddy cannot get off work for more than a week, but if you can swing it, plan somehow to spend more time hunting. That can be the most important factor, much more than what dates or the moon phase or even weather. Maybe you could fly out earlier and head up with your local friend there or rent a vehicle and join up with the other two in your group, You could then travel back to MO with your buddy when the hunt ends. It will certainly improve your odds and give you a chance to get into the local elk's movements sooner, leaving more time to hunt them smarter.
Good Luck to you all..
