Lets say you have 5 tags available to draw, and 10 people apply which equates to 50% odds. Is there a better chance at drawing with 10 tags available with 20 people applying?
In the above example, there are no weighted points here, it's a straight draw.
Same goes, if you have 500 tags, and 1000 people apply. You're at the 50% odds. What if there are 600 tags, and 1250 people apply? The raw percentage is less, but more tags are offered. Do you have better odds?
I've seen units that only have one tag available, and others with 5, but the percentage of people applying vs. the tags available equals the same percentage.
Thanks
And I am not a math guy. :)
When I flip a coin, I have a 75% chance of being wrong!
But I drew a NR Arizona desert sheep tag in 2014. Was it basically a miracle? Yes. But it is true that "someone has to draw."
Hang in there.
In your second comparison, once again assuming a true random process, your odds will be less in the 2nd scenario with the 600 tags and 1250 apps, meaning 48% odds to draw.
You could also calculate the odds of drawing in back-to-back years, three years in a row, & etc.
Or more interestingly, you could calculate the odds of not drawing for 3 years in a row, 4 years in a row, and etc. For example, the chance for an individual to go several years without drawing in a 50% (coin toss) draw are:
2 years 25%
3 years 12.5%
4 years 6.25%
5 years 3.1%
6 years 1.6%
Meaning for a 50-50 type draw with about 1000 applicants per year, there will be, on average, about 16 guys who will go six years straight without drawing. No doubt those are the guys who'll swear the system is rigged against them. But in truth, it's just a normal expected result in a random draw ;-)
I know you said you're not a math guy but this has to be a trick question right?
The opposite would be true as well, 16 guys would draw the tag every year for 6 yrs in a row and you would swear they were cheating!
There is a slight increase in draw % if you are in multiple draws as in the above example. But only slight.
Your odds go down. Here's why, group of 4, only the group leader is in the draw. The other 3 are "attached" to his app. 50 tags available, he must be one of the first 47 drawn for the entire group to get tags.If he's drawn 48-50th his app gets passed over because there isn't enough tags for the whole group.
I would agree with you if those "16 guys" and everyone else had the same number assigned to them for 6 years in the sequence of total applicants. But, that number changes every year (as in application number) so, the real outcome is that 16 guys in general won't draw, and those 16 won't necessarily be the same every year.
On a different note, depending on the state and how they conduct the draw, it varies on how you can figure your odds of drawing. When it is by applicants for a particular unit competing against themselves and not others, it's pretty cut and dry to figure your chances, and they likely are always better than if it is by chance when your application comes up among ALL the others.
UNLESS there is a republican in charge then they (The Democrats) will report that it is an unfair system that all illegals were not given equal opportunity to draw a tag so there for there will be protest rallies held on the freeway that runs thru Colorado to stop all the hunters because that is the new way to protest! so in 2017 all illegals will be given a permit for free which will put a strain on the local herd therefor due to your income you will be no longer entitled to draw for a tag
I hope this solves your math question.
If there are 1000 tags and 2000 applications, you have 50% chance at the first tag, 49.9% chance at the second tag etc.
Maybe I just confused myself haha
Can't draw a goat tag to save my life. Have watched everyone around me draw though. Hell one year dude walks up to my desk "what goat unit should I put in for" Me, well, I shouldn't say this but 15, first season....draw comes out, dude draws!
I'd move to Alaska but I'm afraid of the men up there, that and Bigfoot that works for the Forest Service.
There is an algebraic formula for it, but I'm not that smart.
txhunter, not overly complicated. Just first realize that the answer is related to the "binomial distribution". It'll be fairly straightforward to calculate. I won't show calculations, it'd take up too much space ;-)
So, take the 20% annual odds scenario that you cited. Assume there are no waiting period requirements and no points. So with 5 years worth of draws, for any particular individual there are 6 possible outcomes, with roughly:
40.96% odds to draw 1 tag
20.48% odds to draw 2 tags
5.12% odds to draw 3 tags
0.64% odds to draw 4 tags
0.032% odds to draw 5 tags
32.77% odds to draw zilch
Seems that I'm usually a member of that last group ;-)
10 people 5 tags: 50% of the people will get a tag 9 people 4 tags 8 people 3 tags 7 people 2 tags 6 people 1 tag
So for each "draw" that you don't win, your odds actually go down. So the odds of any one person drawing a tag are actually slightly lower than 50%
"Ought not to talk to the boy like that um hmm"
This is flawed thinking. Ignoring bonus points and other rules that complicate things, as Sticksender pointed out... a straight draw for 20% each year over a 5 year period doesn't guarantee a tag in 5 years, but you do have greater than a 67% chance of drawing atleast ONCE during that 5 year period. (around 90% chance of pulling the tag over 10 years).
You can't look at each year individually, you must look at the odds that you continually DON'T draw (.8 x.8 x.8 etc etc for each year you put in).
Yes, when looking ahead multiple years, that's how you would calculate it. That being said, your odds in any given year are 20%. Past failure or success won't change the odds in any given year you are trying to draw.
Yes
