What are my Colorado draw odds?
Elk
Can somebody explain this witchcraft to me? I would just like to know what my draw odds would have been if I had applied for Hunt Code E-E-012-O1-A with one preference point, based on last years draw stats. Last year's draw results are on p. 41 of the following link:
http://cpw.state.co.us/Documents/Hunting/BigGame/Statistics/Elk/2016ElkDrawRecap.pdf
Rather than scratch my head until it bleeds, I figured I'd toss this up to the gurus in the know. Thanks in advance.
Last year the non resident tags drew out at 2 preference points, so with one preference point your odds would have been 0%.
The other variable is in knowing who will apply with how many points. If somebody like "Huntin' Tool" or Western Hunter publicizes an area as a great sleeper, the next year many people with points will burn them for that unit.
A great pronghorn unit I like to hunt always took 4-5 points for a resident. Like clockwork. Then it was publicized. Now it takes 16.
@Vids - So, are the stats listed in the grey box under "NonRes" that read "2 Pref Points", "106 out of 180", and 59% the ones pertinent to me (adult, resident of Wisconsin)? Is that saying that 59% of NR's who had 2 preferences points successfully drew this tag? In other words, 41% of those who applied with 2 pref points failed to draw?
BagginBigguns - Yep, that's it exactly.
It pays to understand the statistics before you apply so you know what your approximate odds are going into the draw...
Righto, Mike. I'm going to MT this fall to chase elk, but I wish I would've put in for another CO point this year to have the option next season. All things remaining equal, I wouldn't draw next year if I applied for that hunt.
Hopefully, you put in for another point in CO for elk. Points are worth a lot in CO for every species. Typically, the more points it takes, the better quality hunt you can draw.
So you are sitting on 1 point and didn't put in for the draw this year or put in for PP code?
It amazes me how many people put in for units they have no chance of drawing. Why even waste the ink? I guess some year everyone that normally puts in for a particular unit will unexpectedly forget? Just look at previous year's stats and see what it took to draw. You might take a chance if you are only a year away. We finally didn't put a pp as our first choice on elk because we had a way outside shot of drawing. 2 nr drew with the points we have now. Ive seen people put in for double digit units with their 2nd choice. Maybe it is easier than doing the research.
Fulldraw1972 - That's correct. Montana sold out of general tags this year, so moving forward it's looking like I need to pay closer attention to a backup plan. I'm not interested in playing the high-points game, but apparently I need more than one point for the area I was thinking of. It's not some big trophy area, but it's a place I've hunted once before, so I know the area a little bit.
SODAKSOONER, The Colorado regs say if you don't apply for a permit or buy a permit in 10 years you lose all your points. So if you only apply for points for 11 years straight you will lose all your points on the 10th year. That's why my son put in for unit 61 with 9 points. He fulfilled the obligation to apply for a permit. He knew he wouldn't draw which was fine because he couldn't go.
At least that is my understanding of the 10 yr rule. Maybe applying for a point counts as applying for a permit but who would want to take that risk when applying for a high point unit takes the same effort.
Yep, that's incorrect you can apply for points the whole time, its inactivity for 10 years before you lose your points. You don't need to apply for a permit every 9 years
My interpretation is the same as Orion's. Lots of guys just apply for points for MANY year, chasing that ever elusive big bull unit.
It makes sense that you guys are right since if you are applying for a point you are intending to hunt there in the future but sometimes the law doesn't make sense.
The actual wording in the Game Brochure is "POINTS ACCUMULATE until you draw a first-choice license. If you fail to apply for and have not purchased a license during a 10-year period, all accumulated points for that species are purged from your record and become void."
Since it does not say you have to apply for a license or preference point I wouldn't want to risk 10 points on a hunch that applying for a point is the same as applying for a license. Maybe the CPW considers applying for a point to be applying for a license but in my simple layman's terms there is a difference. So I told my son why take the chance since it's just as easy to apply for a permit you have no chance to draw.
The CPW could clarify this if they consider applying for a point to be the same as applying for a license. Either way, this lack of clarity is certainly a reason why some folks apply for a permit they have no chance of drawing.
I applied for elk points for 19 years before I used them. Bought OTC elk tags each year. It's inactivity that kills the points.
Jaquomo, maybe by purchasing the OTC licenses you satisfied the requirement of purchasing a license during the 10-year period...?
I always believed that PP's would accumulate forever as long as you weren't inactive in the application process (PP's or draw tag) for 10 years, but I certainly understand Aspen Ghost's point and I don't blame him for being cautious.
I have applied for points only for over 10 years and have not lost my points.
the only thing that takes your points away is inactivity
10 years? Wow. If I recall WY and a good many states you lose your points after 2 years or so. I had 3 points in WY when the economy went south and lost em before I could blink it seemed.....
