Wy Gen will 2 points be a lock in 2018
Elk
So, is exactly 2 points going to be 100%? In the past it was a lock. Will the price increase drive those with points to jump into the general or will it decrease the total number of all applicants. Your thoughts ?
Looking at the trend, 2 should be a lock in 2018. There's enough people who apply with 1.5 that this year, it shouldn't creep out of that bracket.
The price increase shouldn't change things much - the elk tag price is not substantial enough and it's a done deal so you're going to have to pay for it no matter what. People who spend $50/yr for a point for several years are going to balk at the price increase.
Crossing my fingers I can get a gen tag in the special draw with 1 pt.
So far we have been pretty consistent with drawing general tag every other year - we "should" draw this year, so going with that track record, I'm going to purchase my archery tag prior to Jan 1st. (fingers crossed)
Not to change the subject but I think it’s discriminatory that bow hunters have to pay more to hunt. Montana is the same way. A bow hunter doesn’t cost the state any more money. With success rates being what they are one might think a gun stamp would make more sense. I never could figure that out.
The remaining quota for less than 2 points was 27 licenses in the regular pp draw. Once they finish up the quotas for the nr draw we'll know how the gen quotas look compared to last year.
I just apply and let the dice roll out---------->
So far ~~ So good over the years
Good luck, Robb
Woops, I was looking at 2016's numbers. 2 won't be a lock this year. Ohio, if you add the 5th guy, you won't go. You should have pretty good odds if you don't though.
Ohiohunter
Have your buddy with 0 PPs apply for a RP cow tag - entirely different draw. That way he wont hurt your chances and he could possibly still go along
From: Mule Power 25-Dec-17 Not to change the subject but I think it’s discriminatory that bow hunters have to pay more to hunt. Montana is the same way. A bow hunter doesn’t cost the state any more money. With success rates being what they are one might think a gun stamp would make more sense. I never could figure that out.
I have to disagree with you 100% on that comment. Where else can you hunt an entire extra month when you draw a tag if you buy the archery permit that only costs a couple bucks a day for that extra month?!!!
Even if you buy a type 9 tag your paying for the archery stamp. Where are the extra days to be able to hunt then?
"Even if you buy a type 9 tag your paying for the archery stamp. Where are the extra days to be able to hunt then?"
Not true. Type 9 license holders do not require a separate archery license.
“Not true. Type 9 license holders do not require a separate archery license.”
I thought the price of it was factored in on the type 9 tag price.
Agree with MP 110%. Simple answer is, it's a way to generate additional revenue without pissing off the majority (i.e. those that only rifle hunt). Whenever I've asked the question, I get the same canned response..."You're paying for an extra season". My answer is always "No, I'm not. I only bowhunt. When archery season ends, my season ends". Their response to that is "Well, you COULD still rifle hunt" to which I reply "You're right, but someone who only rifle hunts doesn't have to pay extra because they COULD hunt during archery season". For some reason, they never have an answer to that one. It certainly could be worse. At least we don't have to share archery season with muzzleloaders.
Michael, full price elk license fees are the same, regardless of what type. A Type 9 license is simply a limited quota license.
In Montana the bow season is as long as rifle. I think (dream) that they should sell everyone the opportunity to hunt for the same price. Then if a bow hunter wants to go back in gun he can buy an “alternative weapon stamp” and bice versa. Bowhunters get the shaft..... no pun intended.
Based on everything I've looked at, I really don't see any chance that 2 pts will be a lock. In 2017, there were more than 1500 individuals that put in for the reg. general tag, were unsuccessful, and had 1 point or greater in '17. Factor in this years fee increases and pref point only people who jump in, I wouldn't be surprised to see it drop to as low as 60% with 2 pts (assuming a very similar quota).
I assume you mean 2 points in the regular draw? I'm with Toprut, I don't think that is a lock. I "think" 2 points in the special draw might be a lock, but not the regular general. Anyone thinking they are a lock with 1 in the special might get an un happy surprise this year. The days of getting a general tag in the 2nd choice special are long gone. If I had less than 4 points this year in WY and wanted to hunt I'd be putting in for a special general and biting the cost. Sometimes it's about getting the tag in your pocket and moving on...
I've done the research and bowhunters make more money than gun hunters. They know they can charge you and that you will pay it. They will continue to charge you until they see a trend downward.
Moral to the story - sucks to be a successful group.
Anybody thinking of spending 4 points on a special gen instead of regular needs to take a cpl minutes and think before they click that little send button.
Exactly Bob. Panic is setting in. I’d say you’re safe in the regular with 2.5. Agreed?
I’m so confused...Lol! Spray and pray...
2.5 should be good. There's a 900 app swing between 2 and under 3.
The odds will still be good for 2 points in the regular Gen. If you look at the 5 year trend, it should be better than 60% as mentioned above (as worst case scenario).
I don't believe the price increase is going to do jack to the apps. $115 is not going to make a bunch of people jump ship or change habits. If you have 2 points, you already have $100 invested in the tag. If the PP fee went up, I could see people jumping ship, but not for the cost of the tag.
All you have to do is look at the trends to have a rough estimate as to what's happening. Take the 5 year average of increase in total apps per year, factor in the total tags, look at the trend in the odds, they are the same math and the WY Gen tag has been very consistent in its slow, steady point creep over the past 7 years.
Two won't be a lock, but you'll have good odds. 2.5 will be a lock. In the special, 1 point should also be close to a lock, but with the way WY gives preference to special tag apps, they should all draw. Take a look at the stats and look at various units. You'll see the Devil in the details when you look at how many tags were available, but then how many filled.
I'm new to applying in WYO. So last year I bought a PP. This year I will buy another but can I get a third through the "special draw" or what is that? Sorry if this is a hijack on this thread. Feel free to PM.
Be careful for what you wish. I don't do it, but I believe MN requires you to buy a complete new license to bow hunt. Imagine if they decide to do full price licenses for archery and then another for rifle.
WY has been getting a lot of publicity lately, like the recent Born and Raised Land of the Free project. I know they're getting thousands of views and I wonder how many hundreds of hunters who would not have considered WY are now going to apply as a result of Land of the Free...
Do any of you guys think Land of the Free will have much impact on WY draw odds? I guess we can wait and see...
Maybe, but all the new comers are starting at zero points in Wy. Two years from now point creep could jump.
Cheesehead, also Huntin' Fool has been trumpeting the Gen Elk tag as a fantastic opportunity, for the last 2 years, after scarcely mentioning it prior to that.
I'm hoping to be a lock in 2019 with 2.75 points. Sounds like I'm out this year with 1.75 points. After that I'll probably end up just switching to cow tags. I'd rather hunt cows every year or two than bulls every 6-8 years, which is where the general tag is headed. The sad part for me is that the next time my dad is able to hunt the area he and I found, and have grown to love, will almost certainly be his last.
"Do any of you guys think Land of the Free will have much impact on WY draw odds? I guess we can wait and see... "
I don't know, but it should help the Montana odds! lol
No Wiser you’re in good shape in the special draw this year. Go hunt man!!!
If you drew a tag, and then for some reason couldn't make the hunt, is it possible to turn your tag back in for a point?
if your in a hospital bed......maybe.
I know an instance where a kids broken leg didn't get it done
What he said. If you mail in your obituary along with the death certificate they might consider a refund.
Gonna roll the dice and hope my 2 points wins (I bet it will). Anyone else going solo this year?
If the trend continues via the $pecial Draw it might be more like 1.5/2 for 100%
Last year/2017 1203 applied with 0 points $pecial/Gen Elk (29.5% drew)
Last year/2017 500 applied with 0.5 points $p/Gen (74.6% drew)
Last year/2017 545 applied with 1 point $p/Gen (100% drew)
Saying the trend continues 1203 + 500 = 1703 applying in 2018 minus the ones that drew in 2017 Plus adding in those that Jump Up to $pecial.
I'm sticking with my 'cheapie fee' appl. like always.
Good luck, Robb
Mulepower, I'd love to apply in the special draw, but $1,400.00 for the tag/licenses/stamps alone is not in the budget. Could I make it work? Probably. But, it would be completely selfish and irresponsible for me to spend that much. As much as I love bowhunting elk, my family comes first and spending that much is not in their best interest.
Perfectly understandable and respectable. Your day will come.
Myself if I had to welcome people to Wal Mart and hand them a cart to make $100 a week to hunt elk I’d do it. But I also go to elkaholics anonymous for therapy so don’t listen to me!
Given the fact that WY will get so much more money this year, will they stop selling our email address to WYOGO? I'm so damn tired of the spam emails from outfitters.
short answer; anybody can buy the app database.
I just spam them right back asking them to support opening up Wilderness to NR. Still haven't had any reply.
I get a couple emails a week, total bull shit.
How do you guys figure when someone says they have 1.5 points or 1.75 points? Sorry if thats a dumb question but I don't get that. Cant you only have whole numbers as far as points go? I have one pt right now and when I apply I will purchase a second pt but my understanding is I won't get that second pt until next year assuming I don't draw.....right? Meaning I'll go into this years draw with 1 point I think.
SBH the decimals come into play because of group apps where they average the points of everyone in the group.
The number after the decimal isn’t relevant. For example you either have 1, 2 or greater than one. 1.5 and 1.75 are the same. Love k at draw odds for any unit and you’ll see the categories.
"Preference points for party applications are averaged out and rounded to 5 decimal places". I would say that the decimal places are relevant!
Decimal places are very relevant.
They now round to 4 and are very relevant.
Because there can be dozens of individual point pools, the Dept formats their public reports to show pools that were drawn, then they combine the lower ones for a shorter report.
I stand corrected. I know they list darwa results as 1, <2, 2 etc
