20 points NR Colorado
Elk
Here we go, My Hunting Partner and I have 20 points this year NR putting in area 61 first choice and area 76 second choice, is there any opinions on what are chances might be? Thanks
As non resident poor chance ( zero ) but very close. Probably low chance with 21 this year, assuming archery.
I’d guess creep will keep you out of 61 and to quote a gohunt article “Colorado has a simple draw system in place for handling elk and antelope tags. The main thing to understand is that your first choice on the application is everything. The only way that a second choice is even drawn is if that particular hunt choice had tags available after everybody’s first choices were considered (undersubscribed). ”. So you won’t draw 76 unless you put it as your first choice.
GoHunt says you have 14% chance on 61 as first choice. Supposedly next year you will be 100% with 21 pts.
SBH that 14% chance was for last year. The 20 point pool will be a 0% chance this year and the 21 point pool will most likely be less than 25% chance.
Maya, if you're a Non-resident, unfortunately, as mentioned above, your chance is zero for drawing 61 archery this year, not a 14% chance. But I understand that's an easy mistake for people to make when looking at those odds reports. But that chart very graphically illustrates the point creep problem for non-residents. You had 19 pp last year. The large group of people possessing one point more than you (20 last year), had a 14% chance last year. Those same remaining people, now holding 21 points each, and the others holding that many points who choose to join the fray this year, will have somewhere (roughly guessing) around a 15-25% chance to draw this year.
Looking at the history shown on the chart, the people in the 2018 class of 21 pp's have had 5%, then 5%, and then 14% odds to draw over the past 3 years. That means anyone with less points, such as yourself, has a long time to wait, even to get a slight chance to draw.
To me it's much preferred to understand your real honest draw odds chances, rather than to hold false hope and then be disappointed. As lineman said, as a NR you'd need to put in for 76 as first choice to have any chance to draw one of the two hunts. On the other hand, if you're a Resident, you're good to go for 61.
Yes. sticksender displays exactly what I've been contemplating last few days. I'm at 21 points so my chance went from 5.9 to 5.6 to 14%. Not much progress there. I'm considering doing what Randy Newburg did last year, threw in the towel and cashed his on one of the late rifle tags there. From the 20 point pool you will never draw 61. Time to seek other options. Those in the 21 point pool average out to only ~5% better odds each year. So maybe a 20% chance this year. My wife will accompany me on my western hunts this year so it's not a good year for me to cash in. Will likely just do a point.
WY is on the same trajectory as CO. All preference point systems that give all or most of the tags to the applicants with the most points will not just have point creep at the top but will have erratic point creep when an article about a huge critter makes the news in your targeted unit of Huntin' Fool says is now the top unit.
WY was able to mask the point creep when was relatively inexpensive to idly build up elk and deer points rather than have to actively apply for a unit that would cause you to cash in all your points. Well, WY has made it clear NR are going to foot an ever-increasing portion of the F&G budget so the 1000s holding high point totals that never applied before are now filling out applications with units listed. And the point creep is >1 in the mid-tier units and at 1 in the top-tier units. The mid-tier units will see point creep that edges toward max points to draw. There simply are not enough primo tags to award to people with 10+ points and there were never enough tags. All the point system in WY did was make some applicants for Points Savers think they had invested in points for long enough that now when they get in the game they have high individual odds to draw a great deer and elk tag. If under 10% odds is great then they should be happy to wait on average another decade to use their max points. I think human nature is an older or impatient applicant will step down from only applying for primo units to get a tag in hand so the id-tier get hammered. The applicant with under 5 points can focus on units with no much non-wilderness public land and low harvest rates of not very large critters but those with less than max points are in "no-man's land" just like for deer or elk in CO does you no good to have 12 points as the only tags you can draw are similar to what you can draw with 5 points.
Point systems for species where demand for better tags is 10x or more than supply all end up like CO or WY. Once you cash in after two or more decades of trying to draw that great tag, will you then get back in line to wait 40 years this time or will you be content to go on hunts for small critters with low harvest success? More than likely you are done applying for that species but time will tell if the attrition happens. If that species you just drew is the main reason you apply for other species in that state then you may stop applying in that state.
always wonder how folks build a s@*t pile of points and simultaneously have not learned how to figure out the draw odds. Wish the OP all the best but wonder what the thinking is for putting 76 as a 2nd choice. Do you think it has a chance?
The beaitiful thing about Colorado’s draw system, among the ugly, is you pretty much can know for sure when you can draw. That is terrific for your hunt planning. For example with 6 points as a resident I KNOW I cant draw 76 this year even though some did draw with 6 last year. Not fessible this year. point creep.
Put 76 as your first choice if want a sure thing this year. Put 61 is want to be guaranteed another pref point.
How old are you? As noted, you have zero chance at 76 second choice. You could draw it first choice. You're most likely 4-9 years from drawing 61, based on past statistics and point creep progression.
Hard to guess what creep will be. Lots of folks who had visions of hunting one of the top units have realized it will never happen so they are burning them on the next best units.
If you look at the diagonal pointed out for app's it appears that the number is growing each year from 2015-17. Note it goes from 34-36-42 over those years. Looks like it's not going to get better, only worse as more jump in.
I read these things all the time too- All the choices aftert the 1st one DO NOT USE or Generate POINTS>>>>
They are for the leftovers in case there are any.... So if a unit required 1 or more PP's it makes no sense to put it as an alternate choice.
Same thing for these guys who put a FIRST Choice, and then as another choice they use the PP Hunt CODE????? IF you do not draw your 1st CHOICE you get your point- no need to put the PP only down, that is ONLY for 1st CHOICE if you do not wish to draw with points.....
The above posts have alluded to it, but unit 76 required 14 points to for sure draw archery last year, so if you put is AS YOUR FIRST CHOICE you should draw this year.
The way you are currently applying, you have basically 0% chance of drawing a tag, but will get another point for next year!
You could also probably draw the muzzeloading tag and the regular 1st Rifle (NOT the early first rifle) in unit 76. Should be a really fun hunt there, but it does not have the quality of unit 61 on bulls
Man you guys are “creepin” me out. ;-)
Good post Stick.
The problem here is easy to see; Even after putting in for 20 years, you are in a point pool with 19 others....the point pools ahead of you have over 50.
They only give out 1 non res tag!
Say that 20 of those folks ahead of you die...or fall off the list......it still could be another 30 years before you draw that tag- wow.
I think if you are holding a lot of points you should be required to give notice if you die.
And if you don’t report that you died it should be punishable by death!
—jim
Thanks guys for all the information, I think I will have bourbon!
Can you edit your choices with the new “system” they are using for applications?
Jim? Death?? Seems a little extreme.
“The problem here is easy to see; Even after putting in for 20 years, you are in a point pool with 19 others....the point pools ahead of you have over 50.”
Not to mention there were 1613 people with 20+ points last year who only put in for a PP. As these people continue to trickle in the creep will continue to rise.
Thanks for all your information, we have decided to change are first choice to unit 76 this year, with 20 points! Any information would be Appreciated to help us getting to know the area before we arrive. Thank you All
Do a search for CO 76 on past posts and you will be up all night reading.
My wife and I did cash in 20 pts on a 4th season tag in 61 last year . Both came home empty handed. I passed up a 300 6x6 first day, my wife passed up 2 5x5s I saw 2-3 in 320-350 range 3/4 mile away and almost got a chance at a 320. Overall didn’t see many elk. Eastman’s said that the 2,3,4th seasons were terrible in 61 this past fall. 10% success 3rd season and only 5% for 4th. Both usually run 60-75%
Bad year to hunt. Seems there are recruitment issues for calves due to predators
Okay, a sudden drop in success from the previous year has about zero to do with predation on calves. I don't know what the cause was, but it wasn't predators.
If there have been drought issues that would be my first suspect since elk go to the groceries and if they are largely absent, so are the elk.
I think Eastmans is full of s###.
FYI unit 61 success rates were 51% and 57% for antlered elk this year (2017) in 3rd and 4th season. Not sure where 5 and 10 came from?
This was in latest copy of Eastman’s
I understand that predators dont have a 1 season effect but if there is a trend of 1 calf for every 4 cows which the outfitter said he has been seeing last few year that’s a 0.25 recruitment rate which is not good if it continues . Since cows and bulls are roughly 50/50 at birth then if that’s a real number then it’s taking 8 cows to produce 1 bull into the herd. That’s not very good recruitment. But again, I’m just basing that on what I saw and what the outfitter told me he’s been seeing the last few years
90% success in archery is not even close, and the 2017 rifle success numbers cited in that article are wildly incorrect. I believe the harvest success data was only published by CPW a couple days ago. Makes you wonder where the author in Eastman's got his info for that article.
IDK? All I can say is what I know. There were 4 hunters in camp. The other 2 both shot about 290 6x6s. I could have shot a 300 6x6, my wife never had a shot at a 6x6. During the days I hunted I only heard 2 shots and 1 of those was one of the other guys in camp. I saw him shoot his bull about 3 miles away
Wow, the Eastmans must be on crack.
Sounds to me like one of the Eastman's or a crony is just below max points and has his eye on the unit. What Eastman's has creepeth, they will uncreepeth for their own benefit!
IDK how many bull tags were given out for R,NR, and landowner but it looks like 12 bulls were killed during 61 4th season.
Look on the left side of this page
Does that include landowner tags too? That’s why I couldn’t figure total # out because it has 29 tags on right bottom but idk which season they are?
Holy smokes OilCan....i had no idea there were that many folks with that many points.
Since its a considerable investment in time and $$....don't be surprised when these states try to placate us next by saying you can pass your points down to a immediate family member.
"....and finally to my most precious possession..... my 37 elk points in Colorado are to go to my son Kapernick"
{yeah, I know...bad timing for the poor kid on the name thing being born in that small window- grin]
You think that’s a lot of people look at the # of people for the new early rifle season in 61, early rifle, and archery
You’d be surprised how many people still don’t know that you can use the PP code instead of applying for a high point unit, or how the draw odds even work.
Beendare
See link for the total of 'Pre-Draw' elk applicants for 2017
cnelk...there seems to be a small percentage of the high point holders that are drawing. Wonder when they’ll get in the game and draw?
cnelk- I think those high point holders have died and they have family applying in their name to keep hope alive that somehow those points can be sold!
If I'd started applying for points my first year hunting OTC elk in Colorado, I'd have 27 PP going into this year's draw! Or maybe not, since I'd have already drawn unit 201 by now. But way back then, you very rarely, if ever, heard anyone talk about "building points".
