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CO Draw Stats - Read 'em & Weep
Colorado's 2018 draw stats for Sheep & Goat have been posted. The impact of eliminating up-front payment is a lot higher than I would've guessed.
- Sheep applications by residents increased from the prior year at 14,011 to 26,859 this year.
- Sheep applications by non-residents increased from the prior year at 3,728 to 14,134 this year.
- Mt Goat applications by residents increased from the prior year at 10,144 to 22,357 this year.
- Mt Goat applications by non-residents increased from the prior year at 1,951 to 11,054 this year.
Colorado had long been one of the few states in which a NR could be reasonably hopeful of someday drawing one of these species. That hope has been extinguished by one small policy change.
Thank you sticksender for the reality check. Maybe instead of applying for sheep draws across the West we should instead be playing the Lottery. Drawing a CO tag, even after many years, doesn't seem likely anymore.
Wow! Those stats are worse than I was expecting too.
On the plus side, eliminating paper apps reduced ineligible applications from 149 the prior year, to 6 this year ;-)
What's more depressing is that many people were surprised by the $3 application fee this year. Next year more people will be aware of it. We may see the applications double next year.
Desert Sheep applications also increased.
Resident apps went from 1,526 to 2,787.
And non-resident increased from 424 to 1,772 (there's 1 NR tag).
That flat out sucks. They should have been looking or ways to mitigate point creek not increase it exponentially
Wow, that is totally insane!
Ouch, that stinks. Maybe the DPW needs to raise fees on these licenses to get the demand back down.
Weighted points will be totally worthless in three years as the sheer number of new and low point applicants will flood the system and draw a majority of the tags
Moose apps will be even worse.
CPW is laughing all the way to the bank.
Expect them to start raising application fees now that they have set the hooks on all these new suckers on the hook!
Keep gathering in more suckers and then raise application and point fees year after year with the promise of being eligible for a premium tag in only 3 years!
Along with raising fees on all species hunting licenses on residents this next year and continuing to allow unlimited non-resident elk tags...
They will be flush with cash in no time!
Will they reduce resident fees when they figure out that they have too much revenue?
There are already rumors that sheep and goat points will be nearing the 100 dollar mark shortly to be in line with Wyoming.
Sad to see but many western states are going this route in different variations.
If you play going forward you just have to accept the Random tag draws are your only hope. Accumulating points to gain a max point tag is quickly becoming a thing of the past.
I hate to say it but a better plan may be to work hard and save for a land owner tag.
I said this from the get go. I never liked the new draw system. In a few years the odds will be so slim of drawing it will be about impossible. Sad deal. He problem is you don’t have the separation of serious and non serious people. Now that you don’t have to front the money non serious people apply. People that don’t truely care about the tag.
Would be fine if Colorado handles points like Arizona. But given the 3 pt max + those ridiculous weighted preference points it’s almost pointless. I’ve been applying since 1990.
That is a crazy jump and will really blow the stats in a few years when they are all eligible.
Seems like New Mexico has the right idea with no point systems and just random draw.
I'm waiting for JRABQ and Idyll to tell us how weighted points are going to help
Wow. That's much bigger than I expected. Just based on the numbers the CPW pulled in almost $135,000 in application fees for the difference between last year and this year and almost $225,000 in total app fees. It's only going to be bigger when we see the deer and elk numbers. The $3 fee for applying may alone fill their funding gap!
It's actually a little less than I expected but I'm guessing it will increase more. A lot of folks weren't even aware of the change until they applied this year. Next year we may see the full effect.
It was the obvious outcome.
Here in BC it's all random draw for any species on draw. Seven bucks per entry, then buy the tag (or not) if drawn. The preference points system comes up every year after the draw and the inevitable bemoaning from the un-drawn. After watching many of the states/provinces points systems heading into "never gonna get to hunt" land, I'm happy to stay with random. I never plan my year around draws and only count them as a bonus.
Holy cripe, weep is right! Expected to see a bump in applicants, but that is depressing
Isn't this what Utah did about 10 years ago and crushed the NR odds?
Cool thing in BC as a resident is that you can hunt most every species whether you draw or not.
In the States, demand far outstrips availability for many species - especially sheep, goat, and moose.
The point systems do help out a bit to reward people that are consistent over the long run. However, there are many draws that are statistically impossible to get in a lifetime.
They have become another revenue stream for state game agencies and they will continue to promote more participation as it is non consumptive of the resources.
Wyoming may actually make more revenue this year on applications and points than the do on tag sales. I would expect other western states to follow suite to maximize revenues with minimal impact to the resources.
What crushed the NR Utah odds was the switch to allowing applicants to apply for all species. Previously, you had to choose between one of the OIL species, which made the odds a bit better, especially for the less popular OIL species like mountain goat and bison. As expected, allowing applicants to apply for everything resulted in dramatically more revenue for the Utah DWR, but more applications and poorer odds for everyone.
Hook’em in with the $3 app and then when that crowd surge becomes eligible in a few years raise it to $25 or more. Just skip all the tweeks, changes , modifications and just auction “ALL” the high demand tags each spring . Free market set the price.
Full disclosure I wouldn’t be a bidder can hardly pay the current price of a drawn tag now!
If you look at the overall NR goat draw recap, it appears that weighted points do actually have some value on average. For instance, 3 of 35 applicants with 15 points drew tags. 0 of 229 applicants with 0 points drew tags. I'm sure Orion will be back shortly with an example to try to "disprove" this, but mathematically the weighted points must give you an advantage. The problem is that the advantage is not that large when the amount of demand outweighs the supply so dramatically. And as everyone has mentioned, it is only going to get worse.
It's just math. Yes, weighted points are an advantage. It's just a lot smaller advantage than most people think it is or want it to be if they have a bunch.
wrong 11 guys with 3 plus zero drew goat tags
tkjwonta you are confused you are not eligible to be in the draw until you hit 3 points so yes anybody with zero points will never draw. But there are a lot of 3 plus zero guys pulling tags their first year in the pool. A lot more low point holders are drawing than max point holders because they are a larger percentage and have better odds of the low random number
I think it would be much better if all the states had the same draw rules, I like that new mexico is random, I like that Idaho makes you chose the species and I like that wyoming makes you pay up front. I think if each state only allowed you one app for one species for a random chance to draw and charged you up front for the tag fee it would be the best system. The preference points and bonus points are a pure money making scam at this point. Charging up front helps weed out the people who probably can't afford to go anyway, the picking of one species per state spreads out the apps and nothing is more fair than random draw....just my $.02...
Wow, that's a huge increase. The DBHS tag odds were bad before, now they're just ridiculous. I'm actually surprised that the resident pools expanded so much. If it wasn't worth it for residents to front the cash for the odds they had at the price they're paying, I just have a hard time believing that they want the tag that much. Well, at least there'll be two more years before the full impact.
And I think that the odds of the fee going up by several exponents within the next 10 years are very high. I'll drop out of this one too if they raise it too much - the odds are just too ridiculous to justify it costing much.
I have been applying since 1989. Year after year of cutting Colorado a check for $2000+ to let them keep it for a few weeks. All for naught... So much for hunter loyalty. As for landowner tags for sheep, just try to get one. Better kept secret than the inside workings of the White House.
Holy wow...Glad I bailed on CO when I did! As Charlie said, a few more states in the point game, then I'll buy LO tags where I want to hunt...It's getting crazy!
Looks like 3PP with 4 or 5 weighted is the place to be in the stats above.
Hmmmm is the plot thicker? How many of these new applicants are from the anti's? Now that they don't have to pay up front, they can really clog up the system.
Yeah I’m curious about the seriousness of the applicants. I applied my kids for points for everything but at this time they only express interest in hunting deer and elk....but for 3 bucks up front I’ll snag them points. Probably wouldn’t do it if it was the previous system.
Interesting thought, Peco. How would antis lack of success show up in the stats that CPW uses to set future tag quotas as well? Would they lower tag quotas based on lower success?
It's not antis its people like Nesser now putting their wife and kids all in since they don't have to front 3-4,000 dollars. The family of four had to pay 3,000 for the big 3 for all of them to put in the old way, now its 36 dollars.
It might be time next year to burn my max weighted bull moose points on a cow tag. After 30 years applying I'm not getting any younger!
Hope the younger guys don't learn to appreciate the underlying sad irony of all this the hard way but afraid they will.Their kids for sure.
The threat to hunting by the lack of hunters-and the threat to hunting by too many hunters.
It all leads to......
Your right leftee my kids will most likely never draw the big 3 or a premium elk tag in Colorado. Thank god they have had great luck so far in New Mexico and it got their fire lit, but it wont stay lit for long if they can't draw anything.
Orion, in reference to the goat draw above, I'm talking about NR. For NR, those with 3+0 drew no tags, while those with 3+15 drew 3 tags. As with many point systems, the intention is reasonable and the draw works pretty well for a few years, but once the ratio of applications to tags gets too high, or the point levels increase too far, things break down.
Somebody just punched me in the stomach and boot kicked to to the head...my dream of hunting sheep and goat again looks like a dream....actually now a nightmare...
The only way for the CPW to keep making $$ on this is to lower the time PPs are valid to 2 years.
Having them valid for 10 years now makes only serious people to keep applying as they know the game.
This is horrible and I'm not even in for any of those species. Good grief......
Points in all states are being diluted to almost worthless, I have seen this trend and have been burning them asap and will never get back in as the rules continue to be changed. It's all random for me. I never invested points in states with a hunting license required to gain a point, way too much invested for the odds vs cost. Save that money and put it towards a LO tag or Canada. LO tags will be increasing now as well. Glad to get my kids in on a few opportunities but they will never get to experience the amount of quality unit hunts I have.
When I drew my G-7 Mnt Goat I had/ was at 3/3
Then my S-32 bow Ram I had/was at 3/5
I have many bowsite family with 3/Double Digits!
How times change
Good luck, Robb
I'm glad I have never entertained the whole point thing. I'd rather have a good spot I know to go to year after year and have a chance at a decent elk. That to me is a quality hunt and I would take that over a quality unit any day.
This was terrible idea. Adds insult to injury.
I’m out of them all. At 45 with only a couple points I think there is no point for this flatlander. It’s a shame you can always watch the celebs that get special permits talk about how great which dnr is. Makes me want to vomit.
I remember all the complaints every year about having to pay the full amount to apply and CPW holding onto it for months and now it is just the opposite. You can’t make everyone happy. I preferred paying the full amount to apply and I never complained about it. I sure hope I draw something in the next 2 years.
Maybe, in addition to PP and BP, they should also factor in your age, and for residents, number of years of residency.
I looked last night there are hundreds of sheep applicants just gaining points with as many as 3/10 on up to 3/17. They’re not applying for hunts just points. I’m thinking there’s definitely gonna be a watering down of odds but majority will be for the rifle hunts. Archery won’t be as hard hit. Moose, on the other hand, gonna take a heavy hit for sure since all methods are in same pool. JMO
Glad I didn't get into that game! Wow.
The baiting is done. 5 years from now it will cost $150.00 per point for moose, goat, and sheep. Genius move by CO. Sucks for everyone who has been in it for years.
Like many long time residents, there was a time when you expected to get a couple sheep or goat tags. I even burned my points on a ewe tag because I figured I had plenty of time to start over and draw a ram.
Things changed pretty fast and now this change really alters things. Im disappointed but the writing was on the wall so I changed my expectations.
Very glad I was able to draw my Sheep tag last year, and my son a Goat tag. In a couple of years when all the new applicants hit the 3 point mark and are in the actual draw it won't be easy.
Terrible... I'm gonna go puke... Ed F
Well I’m one of the few who am actually happy about this. I had only applied for mule deer the last couple years...I prepared financially to put in for several other species and then was blown away by the new point system! I could see those numbers doubling over the next 2 years for sure, this year most people I know were surprised by it and I know of two people who didn’t even put in for points they would have if they’d have known.
It definitely hurts those who have been putting in for years though and I’d be pissed if I were in some of your boats.
Glunt you're right, we have no choice but to adjust our expectations. And this is not just a Colorado issue. In virtually every western state it becomes less likely with each passing year, to obtain the more coveted big game permits. If you're serious about hunting big game species other than deer/elk/pronghorn, you'll either have to adjust to the new reality, or drop out. At one time I fully intended to draw all my tags and strictly do DIY hunts. But one can no longer count on drawing out on some of these species, even in a lifetime of applying. The truth in the math is unavoidable. For my way of thinking, NOT doing some of these hunts is NOT an option. If pay-to-play and/or guided hunts are the only workable alternative, that's the adjustment I'll make happen.
Oh man am I glad I'm out of the points game. I let my WY and UT points lapse years ago when I moved to BC and my CO deer points finally expired this year. Luckily I'd drawn unit 2 elk and antelope tags in CO and an AZ archery elk tag in the 3 years preceding my move and never got back into the game. I feel for those that are vested but not at the top of the list for sure.
I burned my elk points a few years ago, my pronghorn points this year and just have to pick a deer tag next year and I'm done saving points for those three. I'll keep applying for things like a crack addict but no plans on skipping lower point limited tags to save for premium tags.
I don't see it hitting residents as hard as NRs (besides the obvious odds being so much worse). So many of those new resident hunters are family members and people who couldn't see putting up a small amount of money for the tag before the change and are just building points. I bet a large % of the Class of 2018 who are residents will never do anything more than accumulate points.
My daughter hunts deer 1 day a year yet I still build points for her in her home state of CA for other species just in case, but I'll probably never put her in for an elk or sheep tag. But for an $8 point, it's a no-brainer just in case she gets more into hunting in the future.
Ziek, I love the age factor. Someone like me with max points at 64 has a far lower chance of drawing than someone who is 44 with max points. As a govt entity they can reverse-discriminate however they want - age, race, sexual orientation, whatever. They give "extra-credit" points for hiring, why not apply it to the draw system as well?
Looking at the drastic increase in Desert Bighorn applications (no point system) in 2018 makes me believe that a goodly percentage from this class of new applicants, once they reach 3 pp for Goat & RMBS & Moose, will indeed apply for licenses and not just points. Perhaps because they will consider actually drawing a tag to be an extreme long shot anyway, making less ominous the fear of having to actually pay for the license. Get your name in the hat for a lowly $3.00, and then figure out how to pay later if you actually win.
Seeing that this is a major bendover...they responded with the Hybrid tag.....if there could be a pool...for people say like 3-5 you know like a certain percentage of the allotted tags or more real point power in the weighted...it is all a computer formula....
Greg, that could absolutely be the case. But it's just as plausible that the people who really want a tag put in for DBHS since they have a chance year 1 and they can draw a tag right now.
Without a doubt, odds are going to get worse for everyone. The only question is by how much.
I see a lot of these people putting in for Mt Goat never actually pulling the trigger. It's a brutal hunt that many dream about but never actually do.
I'm not Goat-eligible again until 2020....but if I had points, I know which hunts I'd apply for in each of the next 2 years!
Seems to me the way they should have approached this change since the primary goal was to eliminate the deficit of funds from refunding non-successful applicants was to simply charge the app fee plus a nominal refund fee to cover the expense. Wouldn't that net out to their advantage similarly, and not totally screw the individuals that are really serious about trying to get one of these tags? I most certainly would sign up for that deal...hell, I'd pay a little extra on top as are resource fee or whatever, if i had too. Total cost somewhere around 20$ /app but only after fronting the full price up front. Seems to make some sense.... Spoken from a 3+17 (max) guy, who stands a chance of really never drawing now.
Another approach would be to not allow point buying. Apply for a tag, or not. If you're successful but can't hunt that year, you turn it back in but don't accumulate a point. They can then offer it to the next guy in line.
Well..... for guys who have been putting in for years.... that sucks. Already poor odds took a big hit. But as stated above..... folks need to be careful what they wish for. This didn't come out of the blue, seems to be based on a lot of folks complaining about the state keeping their "front" money for so long before they got it back when unsuccessful in the draw. They exactly got what they wished for. Unintended consequences can be a boy-I-itch......
OTOH....... those new apps have an exponentially better odds..... seeing as they were at zero chance before.....
BTW.... it wasn't me..... have never applied for anything in CO..... likely never will now unless they go the NM route...
I like the change and support it. It has allowed me to enter my kids with out a major issues. Sorry it is kind of backwards for me to think anyone should have a better chance. It would be better if we just axed the preference point system all together and went back to 100% random draw where you played your odds and only got 2 choices. Some would only apply for hard tags, other easy tags, but at least every year everyone has an equal chance.
"...just axed the preference point system all together and went back to 100% random draw..."
That would be the absolute worst choice and grossly unfair to those who spent a lifetime playing the game. However, I could live with getting rid of pure PPs, and going with a set number (3, 5 ?) and converting the rest to BPs.
How about not allowing just buying a point? You're either serious about hunting, or you're not. With everyone that wants to hunt, why should you be allowed to buy points until it's convenient for you to cash them in? Shit or get off the pot.
The result of this change was obvious. Either the CPW saw the obvious and it fits their plans or, if they didn't see the obvious, it was incredible incompetence. Their are plenty of smart folks there so I have to assume it fits their plans. Fun to throw ideas around but if they don't think it's broken, they probably aren't in a hurry to fix it.
So if I am thinking this right we have two more years to realistically draw at the old terrible odds...until this new horde gets 3 points???
Ziek, not sure if this is a serious post or not? "Maybe, in addition to PP and BP, they should also factor in your age, and for residents, number of years of residency. "
I am all in for it though... native and getting older every day!
I vote for pure lottery and money up front. Keeps the serious people in it and makes it fun to draw, if you draw.
If your not willing to pony up a few hundred dollars you will get back...you don't want it bad enough...I would be willing to pay say $1000-$2000 for the tag...ohhhh.....what about the poor guys...if you can't get that together I still say you don't want it bad enough......
Is there a down side to converting existing points to bonus points and then squaring bonus points like Nevada? Gives the newbies a chance and those with vested interest a better chance.
Some good ideas. I wonder if the "no buying a point only" would have the wrong effect though. It could go either way. People who didn't want to apply - some would definitely not apply, but I wonder how many would just put in because they had to. As it stands, there are lots of people around the country that put in for a lot of points each year because they only want one tag or they dont have the funds/drive/fitness/desire to hunt an OIL type tag. Our odds are as good as they are in a lot of places because these guys aren't putting in.
I'm just throwing out ideas. I've hunted, and killed, at least one of everything except desert sheep. And I've hunted elk in unit 2 twice. I don't really care what they do at this point. My wife also has killed a sheep and goat and doesn't want to hunt them again. She would like a unit 2 tag though. May never happen with pure PP.
As for having to put in for an actual hunt, this is how I would do it. To get another point you would have to apply. If you got it and didn't want it, you would have 30 days to turn it back in, but would not get a point. It would then be offered to the next in line. To make sure someone can get it with enough time to plan, they could send out an email to the next 20 or more and give them 1 week to respond. That could be repeated if necessary. The most "senior" responder would get it. If the original successful guy waited longer than 30 days before relinquishing it, he would lose an additional point, unless it was for a real good reason like a medical issue. If he didn't hunt or turn it in, then at least 1 high point guy is gone.
I cannot agree more sticksender! That is much worse than I dreamed my worst nightmare.
I literally do not have words!
Luckily I have drawn both already but was definitely hoping for a second
Pat Lefemine's Link
It would certainly help the elk situation in Colo if elk went to all draw. That way everyone that applies and draws an elk tag their first choice burns points! It would end a lot of the current problems with the elk draw. Currently only a small number and percentage of total elk units are draw. The CPW would then be able to manage hunter and elk numbers. A lot more elk hunters would be burning points rather than building points hunting OTC units every year. Makes a lot of sense to me!
I have no clue why the CPW would not charge license fees up front. In my eyes it's a royal mistake! They obviously have more hunters applying for tags so likely make more $? That's the only explanation I can come up with. It definitely doesn't help those that have been applying for years and years draw tags....which seems to be one of the biggest complaints I hear!
Link to my article last year. I didn't expect it to get better, but I also didn't expect it to get worse. I was wrong.
I would add on the elk tags being 100% draw that any elk tag received results in points going to zero including landowner, raffle and auction tags. Change that to apply for any tag for all species, actually.
jims, the main benefit to the division for dropping pay-up-front, is that they'll now pay far less in merchant fees to the CC banks. This change saves them hundreds of thousands of dollars in fees. If everyone was being honest, the division as a whole probably doesn't really care about draw odds. But IMO something needs to change very soon. My guess is they won't continue to allow everyone to apply & gain points for S/G/M for only 3.00 a pop. I just hope there's a plan.
I sure hope it doesn't change to the extreme of Wyo where they charge $50 to $100/species just to apply and receive pref pts each year. There must be a happy medium? I was excited when the CPW went to CC rather than returning a check for every darn species applied for each year. I'm not sure why Colo couldn't do what NV and Utah do? Applicants get charged for the license fee via CC's up front but refund unsuccessful applicants back to CC's after the draw. I'm not exactly sure why CPW couldn't do the same thing? I really think Utah has around the best application system available. They don't charge as much as Wyo or NV to apply for tags but still use CC's to apply.
UT and NV both require you to buy a hunting license and then pay application fees up front. Of course the resident licenses are lower priced.
Seems like that model would work better in the overall scheme as Colorado would get additional money up front. Colorado may do it that way to claim more licenses sold per species for federal funding.
I would guess that Colorado will turn into something like Wyoming or Montana where we will have to pay for points. Alongside raising application fees and licenses for every species. It’s definitely getting expensive to play the application game and all the state G&Fs appear to be looking for new and exciting ways to get us to pay more and more for the limited opportunities.
".I would be willing to pay say $1000-$2000 for the tag...ohhhh.....what about the poor guys...if you can't get that together I still say you don't want it bad enough......" Whatever.
Most states are figuring out that they can make as much $ off application, licenses, and pref pt fees than actual license fees for tags that are drawn. Obviously some of this $ goes to the companies that offer their draw services.
UT is a chunk cheaper than NV since you only need to buy a license every other year. NV is well over $200/year to apply for all species. In 10 years that's over $2,000 just to apply! Hunters that apply for multiple states may need to take out a 2nd mortgage on their house to afford application, license, and pref pt fees!
As I draw tags in surrounding states I'm slowly but surely pulling the plug on out of state applications. I would much rather put my hard earned cash towards other trips that tossing my $ to the wind in application fees!
I like Jim’s idea for elk a lot.
Also Wy set a precedence and you better believe more more states are going to start to fall it and increase revenue.
And as always I beg people not to use mentality that just because everyone is charging nonresidents a certain amount that makes it OK.
If a state gives away 10% of its tags in to nonresidence and they find 90% of its budget how can it possibly be OK? It doesn’t matter if an app that costs a NR One dollar or $10,000 those numbers are just not right when more hunting occurs on federal land then anywhere else.
You may hunt on some federal land but the animals there are the state's animals. The state pays to manage them and enforce the legal hunting of them.
Peco...what i'm getting at is the kind of sheep fever I have an others I know have that they would do almost anything for a tag and pay 1000-2000...poor in debt they would find a way...work overtime sell some guns Grannies china...their ATV...anything. What I think this change is bringing in is a lot is people that don't care THAT much and think what the hell....if up until know you won't let the state "borrow" a couple hundred bucks a year with the pretty good chance you will draw a sheep ...goat tag in your lifetime ( residents) in my book you don't want it that bad or really hardly at all. Somebody in the future will draw one of these tags and say..."now I can't rememeber are the sheep the white ones or the one with the curly antlers on their heads...better google it.." That makes me pretty nauseous
I think it's only a matter of time before CO raises the price to apply and people who've accumulated some points won't drop out because they've made the 3 year investment to have a chance.
I also feel that more and more people will be baling out of these Preference Point systems if something doesn't change in the next 10-20 years as people see it's pretty much impossible to draw. At least with a bonus point system, you have some kind of chance. You buy your hunting license and you get a slew of different species you can apply for (NV, AZ, UT model). That makes it harder to bale out.
WY, OTOH, almost incentivizes people to get their animal and bale out, or flat out just stop applying due to the cost/odds. I'm down to 3 species in WY and I'll probably bale on PH once I draw.
What's sad is that it's becoming less and less attractive for young or hunters just starting out to apply for high demand tags that they have virtually 0 chance to draw 1 tag in their lifetime! What's also sad is people with big $ can purchase the same tag each year that takes others a lifetime to draw! Unfortunately hunting in the Western US is taking a turn in a horrible direction. I'm not exactly sure what can be done to prevent this? States like Idaho that everyone has the same chance to draw a tag with no bonus/pref pt system my actually be a good thing....although I've always be an advocate for offering those that apply more years a little better chance to draw high demand tags. I actually really like NV's draw system....although I disagree with charging so much $ for application fees!