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2012 Wisconsin rut prediction


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Messages posted to thread:
ThwackWI 07-Sep-12
ThwackWI 07-Sep-12
wipy 07-Sep-12
Treefarm 07-Sep-12
Bloodtrail 07-Sep-12
Old Baldy 09-Sep-12
BigPapaPump 11-Sep-12
R Jolly 11-Sep-12
Old Baldy 11-Sep-12
Diamond Dave 12-Sep-12
RACK 17-Oct-12
MuzzyMan 17-Oct-12
Browning3 17-Oct-12
R Jolly 17-Oct-12
R Jolly 17-Oct-12
R Jolly 17-Oct-12
Bow Crazy 18-Oct-12
RUGER1022 18-Oct-12
PB in WI 18-Oct-12
Pdiddlydoe 18-Oct-12
PB in WI 20-Oct-12
Pete-pec 21-Oct-12
Naz 22-Oct-12
RACK 23-Oct-12










From: ThwackWI ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 07-Sep-12


Starting to plan my hunts for the season and wanted to see what other hunters predict as the best days to be in the stand. Any ideas as to which days will be the best this year would be appreciated.

From: ThwackWI ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 07-Sep-12


Starting to plan my hunts for the season and wanted to see what other hunters predict as the best days to be in the stand. Any ideas as to which days will be the best this year would be appreciated.

From: wipy ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 07-Sep-12


i took off from oct28 till nov19 this year so i should be ok. i always think its right around the 8th and 9th. every spot is different just depends on the does, i had my best chasing day ever last year on the 10th and according to my cams i had 2 bucks chasing all day at a different property on the 4th, so imo it really depends on that doe in the area and when she comes into.

From: Treefarm ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 07-Sep-12


If you were to keep track of dates by latitude in WI, I think you would find a trend. 45 degrees average is Nov. 2-7 as tops. The further north, later. Douglas thru Iron counties, the bucks rut may coincide with gun season!

From: Bloodtrail ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 07-Sep-12


My last 2 bucks with the bow were taken middle of October (19-21). They were my biggest to date.

I tend to agree with Treefarm however and yes, I like those last couple days of October and first part of Novmeber!

From: Old Baldy ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 09-Sep-12


Looking at trail cam pics for the last 4 years. November 6th to the 12th had the most day time pics of mature bucks. Northern Bayfield county. Younger bucks were out during daylight either all season or at least earlier in the season - Oct. 28th to Nov. 15th. There are a LOT of yearling bucks around this year. I expect there will be lots of sightings to keep me occupied while I wait for a bigger one.

From: BigPapaPump ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 11-Sep-12


Bucks were really moving last year for me on the Friday before Halloween (28th). Then a lull, shot mine on the evening of Nov. 2nd. November 3rd proved to be the best one for the cameras. Several mature boys on their feet during daylight hour. Buffalo County.

From: R Jolly ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 11-Sep-12


Funny Bloodtrail. I always have a flurry of daytime mature buck photos that I always say happens around Oct 19-21, even though I am never there hunting.

I am off Oct 27 - Nov 11th. I say somewhere in there. However if you have limited time I would recommend Oct 29-31, and then Nov 8-10 as prime time. I think just before a majority come in is good and calling can be very effective as they are seeking and anxious, and then the latter after many have been bred and competition again for fewer does increases daytime activity and searching.

Good luck!

From: Old Baldy ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 11-Sep-12


I was just thinking. Even with photo evidence pointing to early November as the peak of the rut/chase. I have shot my two biggest bucks the third week in October. Both were feeding on acorns and walking down trails along with does.

From: Diamond Dave ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 12-Sep-12


11/3-11/10 are the dates I focus on every year. Also, if there is a stong cold front, late Oct can be real good also.

From: RACK ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 17-Oct-12


NOVEMBER 7TH IS THE AVERAGE KILL DAY FOR ME AFTER 35 YEARS OF BOWHUNTING bucks!

From: MuzzyMan ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 17-Oct-12


Has anyone seen any bucks acting kinda goofy? My dad had a small buck bumping does early this week but thats pretty normal for a young dummy to act like that. A buddy from MN had a 130 class 9 pointer bumping does last weekend, but other than that I havent heard much. Anyone hear/see any different?

From: Browning3 ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 17-Oct-12


Taking from (Serial bigbuck Killer)Dan Infalts website.

Here are the mornings this season I would want to be perched over the top of a mature bucks bed waiting for daylight based on the moon:

*=OVERHEAD

*SEPT 7

*SEPT 8

*SEPT 9

SEPT 21

SEPT 22

Sept 23

*OCT 7

*OCT8

*OCT 9

OCT 21

OCT 22

OCT23

*NOV 6

*NOV 7

*NOV 8

*NOV 9

NOV 20

NOV 21

NOV 22

NOV 23

*DEC 6

*DEC 7

*DEC 8

*DEC 9

DEC 20

DEC 21

DEC 22

*JAN 5

*JAN 6

*JAN 7

JAN 19

JAN 20

JAN 21

Here are the best days for evening sits... By best, I mean the bucks should move earlier than normal, so this should be good for those spots where you can't quite get close enough for daylight shooting due to noise, vision, wind, or some other factor.

SEPT 6

SEPT 7

SEPT 8

SEPT 9

*SEPT 21

*SEPT 22

*SEPT 23

OCT 5

OCT 6

OCT 7 *OCT 19

*OCT 20

*OCT 21

NOV 2

NOV 3

NOV 4

NOV 5

*NOV 17

*NOV 18

*NOV 19

DEC 3

DEC 4

DEC 5

DEC 17

DEC 18

DEC 19

JAN 2

JAN 3

JAN 4

*JAN 15

*JAN 16

*JAN 17

JAN 18

JAN 31

RUT CRUISE TIMES: (BASED ON MOON O/H - U/F)

OCT 27 11:19 AM

OCT 28 12:04 PM

OCT 29 12:49 PM

OCT 30 1:34 PM

OCT 31 2:21 PM

NOV 1 3:09 PM

NOV 2 3:57 PM

NOV 3 4:45 PM

NOV 4 4:33 PM

NOV 5 5:20 PM

*NOV 6 5:42 AM

*NOV 7 6:28 AM

*NOV 8 7:15 AM

*NOV 9 8:03 AM

*NOV 10 - 8:53 AM

*NOV 11 - 9:46 AM

*NOV 12 - 10:42 AM

*NOV 13 - 11:42 AM

*NOV 14 - 12:45 PM

*NOV 15 - 1:48 PM

From: R Jolly ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 17-Oct-12


ooops

From: R Jolly ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 17-Oct-12

R Jolly's embedded Photo



For deer activity, I have concluded through many years that a daytime moon overhead - especially one that rises during the day and is fullest in the afternoon is a very good thing. I have also witnessed some of those 'major' fish feeding periods during these as well. So I do believe the position of the moon can influence the activity of animals.

As for what many of the annual 'rut predictions' and 'timing of the rut' articles I think they are a bunch of bologna. As others mentioned above, I have had absolutely '0' activity and sightings on a property on Nov 1, or Nov 4 while a friend 30 miles away cant stop texting me about all of the hot does and 3.5 year old bucks chasing and cruising. Sometimes it's 4-6 days later before I'm seeing much of any rutting activity. Thus, buck to doe ratios and even age structure of the bucks specifically I think plays another role in the amount of activity witnessed.

I put this graph together a number of years ago while I was trying to prove or disprove the rutting moon theory - and trying to determine if I should use any of those articles to help me choose my vacation time. I requested 10 years worth of deer-vehicle-collision data from the Dane County Sherrif Dept to determine if I could see rutting trends in the DVC data.

From the graph you can see that DVC's spike between 10/28 and 11/10 and then taper off. The most interesting thing about the years of 2001 and 2002 is that the 'rutting moon' peaks of Charles Alsheimer were 19 days apart (Oct 31 in 2001 and Nov 19th in 2002) and a very late rut was predicted for 2002 that should have coincided with the WI gun season. Looks to me like that theory doesn't hold much water.

All of the other years I reviewed (2000-2010) were very similar with only a few other points of interest; in the years following CWD and perpetual EAB the total number of DVC's started dropping, thus a shift downward of the graphs. Also, as the totals dropped the width of the peak narrowed as well to around 10/31-11/9 with a a very steep dropoff after 11/9 unlike the earlier years where the DVC's slowly declined. I can only surmise that after numerous seasons of EAB that the number of available does was much lower and most were being bred in a more defined window - rather than a rut that drags on into the gun season, but that is merely a speculation based upon the data I reviewed. One could certainly expand the data set and include decades of information from a larger sample size of EAB DMU's and non-EAB DMU's to prove or disprove that theory.

From: R Jolly ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 17-Oct-12

R Jolly's embedded Photo



From: Bow Crazy ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 18-Oct-12


Looking at the 2012 calendar and assuming you are taking a week off from work - Nov. 3 - 11 is the time.

From my observations over the years, it's not the dates, not the moon phase, from southern Iowa to northern Wisconsin, it's the weather that influences daytime rutting activity more than anything. Late Oct to Mid November with morning temps in the 20s to a max of mid 40s, light winds, and it should be just about perfect.

Isn't Nov. 11 the day when most P&Y deer have been shot?

Just my thoughts. BC

From: RUGER1022 ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 18-Oct-12


32 years of detailed logs show Nov 2 nd as the best day for seeing and / or shooting bruiser bucks .

In central WI

From: PB in WI ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 18-Oct-12


My 100% rut prediction is that there is going to be one. It will be preceded by a pre-rut followed by the post-rut. The best days will be the ones you are in your stand. The worst days will be the days you are at work or attending to prior commitments like your sister-in-laws third wedding. Your worst days will continue to get worse as you envision the big buck you have on camera finally walking past your stand during legal light. So get out there.

From: Pdiddlydoe ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 18-Oct-12


" your sister-in-laws third wedding"

LMAO. You can't get out of that?

From: PB in WI ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 20-Oct-12


RC, think of it as professional-level game management. That buck that is a mere 200" will be a 220" next year.

From: Pete-pec ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 21-Oct-12


I think the rut will happen as the does come into estrous. I know sounds simple lol. I don't think they all magically come into heat at the same time, so I try to increase my odds by hunting as many days in a row as I can handle. I'll have 17 straight days in the woods, starting the 27th of October. I try to sit all day, but you know how hard on the back and neck that can be. I pray for heavy rain so I can sleep in on an occasion, but hunting as long as you can, will certainly allow you the opportunity to see more than one rutting deer. I believe there's many factors, including the particular doe, the particular buck, the age of the deer, the weather, the temperature, and the moon to name a few. Most importantly, you can't shoot them if your not hunting them. Stay clean, rotate stands, and try to play the wind to increase the odds. Damn, I'm a genius! :) And deer are Wile E. Coyote.....super genius!

From: Naz ........ One Violation Reported on this individual One Violation Reported on this individual ....... Date: 22-Oct-12
THIS VISITOR IS CURRENTLY UNDER WATCH FOR DISRESPECTFUL BEHAVIOR


PB, great first post! A friend arrowed a real nice buck last Thursday evening that was grunting and in pursuit of a doe, so it can happen any time, any place in the next month or more. If I had to pick a 10-day period each year it'd be around Oct. 30-Nov. 8 in my area, based on my years of writing about some of the best archery bucks taken.

From: RACK ........ No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual No Violations Reported on this individual ....... Date: 23-Oct-12


AFTER THIS WINDY RAINY WARM SPELL THE TEMPS ARE SUPPOSE TO DROP INTO THE 4OS FOR HIGS AND THE 30S FOR LOWS THIS WEEKEND . ALSO A GOOD MOONPHASE THIS IS A DEADLY COMBINATION! I WOULD SAY THIS WEEKEND SOME NICE BUCKS WILL BE ON THERE FEET! I know I will be loggin some long hours in the tree this weekend. However my vacation is planned for november 2nd thru the 7th.




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