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Should we be concerned with weather?!?
Wisconsin
Contributors to this thread:
Steve White 09-Nov-14
Crusader dad 09-Nov-14
smokey 09-Nov-14
smokey 09-Nov-14
smokey 09-Nov-14
10orbetter 09-Nov-14
sawtooth 09-Nov-14
Steve White 09-Nov-14
RutNut@work 09-Nov-14
Crusader dad 09-Nov-14
RutNut@work 10-Nov-14
pineriverbowman 10-Nov-14
RUGER1022 11-Nov-14
RUGER1022 11-Nov-14
RUGER1022 11-Nov-14
RUGER1022 11-Nov-14
therealdeal 11-Nov-14
Naz 11-Nov-14
Jeff in MN 12-Nov-14
white oak 12-Nov-14
NWO 12-Nov-14
Naz 12-Nov-14
NWO 12-Nov-14
smokey 13-Nov-14
Naz 13-Nov-14
smokey 13-Nov-14
Steve White 13-Nov-14
happygolucky 13-Nov-14
Naz 13-Nov-14
smokey 13-Nov-14
Steve White 13-Nov-14
RutNut@work 13-Nov-14
NWO 13-Nov-14
Naz 13-Nov-14
GoJakesGo 13-Nov-14
happygolucky 14-Nov-14
NWO 14-Nov-14
Tag elder 14-Nov-14
RutNut@work 14-Nov-14
ACU bowhunter 14-Nov-14
Naz 14-Nov-14
From: Steve White
09-Nov-14
Well things not looking so good are they. With one of the wettest falls in a long time. The swamps are full up here, and a lot of water in general. Long range NWS is saying drier warmer winter with El Nino. Farmers Almanac is saying a winter worse than last!!!

So far, well it looks like the wet trend is to continue. Now they are talking 1-2 FEET OF SNOW in next couple days!!! So far this morning I got 3" already. That is not part of the storm coming, or on the radar!!

I don't know about most, but I am starting to get a bit concerned over what may be coming. Guess it will be what it will be. Just not looking good at all so far. This much snow so early. Is surely going to put some extra stress on the deer population up north!!

From: Crusader dad
09-Nov-14
If they get the snow up there it will force farmers to leave the crops standing over winter wich means food and cover all winter. Less deer will be killed over gun season which bodes well for next year.

From: smokey
09-Nov-14

smokey's Link
Temp outlook.

From: smokey
09-Nov-14

smokey's Link
snow outlook

From: smokey
09-Nov-14
Those are for Jan-March. Equal chances so it looks like a coin toss. But the Dec-Feb map shows above normal temps and equal chance precip. So Starting out warm and coin toss on precip with anyone's guess on the rest of the winter.

I hope it is warmer than last year and less snow snow and wither leaves early to give the deer a break. A good acorn crop helped a lot of the deer here so what fat they have now will help if spring is early or closer to normal.

From: 10orbetter
09-Nov-14
AS tough as the fall hunt has been with the crap moon phase. Opening of gun will be good with the new moon. They will be up and moving looking to feed.

From: sawtooth
09-Nov-14
Dad, There is no farming in North Central Wisconsin where Steve White is referencing. Some deer die in average winters, many die in moderate, or severe winters.

Predation, lack of browse, and inability to legally supplement feed will all contribute to the death toll in winter, much more so in moderate to severe winters.

From: Steve White
09-Nov-14
Yes, there is very little ag lands up this way. Some potato fields between Eagle River, and RHinelander to my south. For the most part all around me is big woods.

If we get that 1-2 ft of snow they are calling for. The wolves are going to start the winter off with some full bellies. If the wet trend continues. Well, one can only imagine what will happen to the remaining deer herd.

From: RutNut@work
09-Nov-14
I see a lot of corn up yet here in West Central WI, and it will likely stay up if we get the snow they are predicting for tomorrow. That is a good thing imo, it will provide cover come gun season. Plus provide standing food all winter. I would love to see some nasty weather for opening weekend of gun season. It will keep the weekend warriors in, and send the rest to the bar even earlier.

From: Crusader dad
09-Nov-14
Sorry Steve, I guess I had my spots in mind when thinking about the snow, as for me the snow keeps the corn up and with standing corn comes the better chance of survival during gun season. As for you, I agree now realizing your area and habitat that snow would not be good. I am now imagining a guy dressed in camo on his treestand doing a "no snow dance".

From: RutNut@work
10-Nov-14
One thing I would be worried about is if you have a pop up blind out. This heavy wet snow we are supposed to get will snap them like tinder. I put one up last Thursday for my son for gun season. It's 80 miles away and I have no way/time to get down there. I did cut a support limb and prop it up under the top hub. I sure hope that does it.

10-Nov-14
If this snow hangs around i think we should be very concerned on its effect on the already depleted northern deer heard. A tired out rutted up buck has little chance against the current predator population.Let alone every other deer trying to make a living in the north woods.

From: RUGER1022
11-Nov-14
As I look out the door with 10 inches on the ground and more falling ( lincoln cty ) and Jan temps on the way, yup very concerned .

From: RUGER1022
11-Nov-14
As I look out the door with 10 inches on the ground and more falling ( lincoln cty ) and Jan temps on the way, yup very concerned .

From: RUGER1022
11-Nov-14
As I look out the door with 10 inches on the ground and more falling ( lincoln cty ) and Jan temps on the way, yup very concerned .

From: RUGER1022
11-Nov-14
As I look out the door with 10 inches on the ground and more falling ( lincoln cty ) and Jan temps on the way, yup very concerned .

From: therealdeal
11-Nov-14
yeah I heard you the first time LOL

From: Naz
11-Nov-14
A lot can happen between now and April. Hope for a good thaw sometime after gun deer hunt for sure. One thing about lower deer numbers up north is maybe the habitat gets a chance to bounce back (agree though that more cutting is needed on federal lands for sure). With too many deer and/or not enough winter browse, you could lose a heck of a lot more deer than predators take. Good example is the mid-90s boom when back-to-back very severe winters killed an estimated 200K whitetails up north. It only took three years for the herd to come back very strong.

From: Jeff in MN
12-Nov-14
Some of it being near impossible to hunt but the thick blowdown in the Hayward area will provide some browse for the deer around there that survived last winter. Then again, with the 15 inches already there and the tangled mess for them to navigate through it could still be tough.

Our food plots (washburn county) are awesome this year, the steady rain really helped. Not much has been eaten yet so those deer will do ok. Don't know if the one corn field nearby got picked but if it didn't that is going to be a magnet.

From: white oak
12-Nov-14
Jeff In MN What part of Washburn county you hunt?

From: NWO
12-Nov-14
Naz, I get all wound up when some one talks about cutting, logging. When was the last time you were up North? I don't know what part you consider up North. "Habitat chance to bounce back, more cutting". Maybe not on Fed land as much, but on County land they have been cutting thousands and thousands of acres for the last 7 years now. I assume you are talking about better habitat for deer. The deer already have plenty of food and great habitat to thrive, live well and survive on County land. So why the low deer numbers? Why haven't they started to already bounce back. They have all the browse, food sources they want and need.

I tell you what, I invite you as my guest, stay at my place for a few days after the snow is gone in the Spring and I will give you a tour of Northern Bayfield County, we can stop by the Court House and talk to Jason Bodine "Bayfield County Forestry Administrator" ask some questions etc. Then you can do your assessment.

From: Naz
12-Nov-14
Am talking federal lands mainly, as per the investigative reports in Gannett WI Media last year. Ground zero I believe was N/NE WI, not NW, for much of that report. It is something the Ruffed Grouse Society and many other groups have been fighting for a long, long time. Maybe Bayfield County is an exception.

From: NWO
12-Nov-14
It doesn't matter who owns the land feds or County, they boarder one another. There is plenty of browse and great habitat up here and other Counties. So is there anyone who can tell us why haven't the deer rebounded or started to rebound? Don't blame it on the bad winters because last year was really the only one. Will there ever come a day when the State of Wisconsin would close (certain Zones) the deer season down because of drastic low deer populations like they did for bear in 84 & 85? Lets see if money out ways Natural Resources.

From: smokey
13-Nov-14
Some of the Fed lands are logged but some are not but there is logging on private and County land. There needs to be more aggressive opening management as was done when they brought the elk back to the landscape. When those openings were managed we saw an uptick of numbers and antler size in the area.

One thing different from the '90s is we are now in a predator pit. The predators climbed due to the prey numbers being high but now reversed. It is too soon to be saying we should have had a bounce back of deer, it will take time but it will not be as fast as in the past IMO.

Last winter was bad all winter and late spring and the year before started out mild but quickly turned bad with freezing rain and then deep prolonged snow cover. The last two springs arrived very late.

The bear season in the '80s were closed due to threats from anti hunters over the State;s management system.

From: Naz
13-Nov-14
"It doesn't matter who owns the land feds or County, they boarder one another."

The Chequamegon-Nicolet National Forest is nearly 2,400 square miles of timber …. more than 1.5 million acres. That's a lot of land to border.

I don't know Bayfield County. But I can see the same harvest stats available to anyone. There has been wild fluctuations since the 40s, and I think it's safe to say that winters and hunter/poacher harvest, not wolves, caused most of them.

Just looking at the numbers provided to the Bayfield CDAC, you can see that hunters killed more than 100,000 deer in Douglas County in a 10-year period from the late 90s to '07. Now add in some bad winters — and there have been plenty of those — and fewer antlerless tags, and I can easily see why the kill would drop to 5,921 in 2012, and 3,989 last year.

Wolves and bears were around in good numbers during those boom years; they didn't cause the deer harvest to dive from 11K-plus in '91 to just 2,378 two years later. And they didn't stop it from jumping back up to 9,500+ in '95, or 11K+ in '99 or a record 17K+ in '00. In fact with record bear kills, more mild winters and SSS going on, the deer kill in Bayfield County stayed at 10K plus right through 2007. Not too coincidentally, the next two winters were well into the moderate range (with '07-'08 closer to severe). And, as many have stated here in recent years with "icing" and such, even if there wasn't 18 inches on the ground some years, the deer took a hit!

From: smokey
13-Nov-14
NAZ, I agree on most of what you say but we did not have the predators then anywhere near what we have today.

From: Steve White
13-Nov-14
NWO and I are in different parts of the state. However I see the same thing here. Mostly state land that I see 1000's of acres of land logged every single year. I loose normally around 4-6 baits a year to Logging. Federal lands are a bit different though. The parts of the Chequamegon, and the Nicolet that I pass through. I have not sen much for logging. Way to much of the state lands being cut. Seems they want to cut it all down, and pretty much are from what I see. So really the habitat in the Northern Highland, and American Legion State Forests is prime habitat for deer. Over populated predators, and harsh winters taking the biggest toll on deer numbers. Hard to say hunters have much to do with it right now. As right here in my area. 3 of the last 4 years have been buck only. The population has clearly not bounced back to what it was 5-7 yrs ago.

About 24" of snow has fallen here. Due to it being heavy and wet. It has settled quite a bit. Really though it has barely stopped snowing in the last few day. For a little bit then it starts again. There is about 3" on the hood of my truck right now since last night. Much of this now is lake effect, and is snowing right now as I type. Even though it has settled it is still deep.

What shocked me a bit this morning. Was to see a single very large doe walk right into the middle of my bakyard. Maybe 10yds off of my patio. It seemed for nothing more than to nibble on a small leafed branch standing out in the middle of the sea of white. Tried to get a quick pic of it, but the house dogs spotted it. Telling it to leave the yard. I'm guessing the neighbors have not fed much in the last couple days with all the snow.

This much snow already is surely got to affect the deer greatly. How much in the long run we wont know. The positive I see of it many of you wont want to see. Is if this causes an even greater decline in the deer herd. The wolves are going to move more to where there are more deer!! Greater numbers of wolf lovers in the southern part of the state. SO to me it would be great to see a greater number of the wolves move that way. Since most are part of the NIMBY clan ( not in my backyard) Maybe this will help to finally gain more control over an exploding population!

Either way cold and more snow coming. So more damage to the herd is surely to come. Damage they will not be able to recover from this year. Doubt we will see enough of a warm up to melt it all exposing more feed for them.

At least the predators will eat well, for now that is!!

From: happygolucky
13-Nov-14
I agree with the wolves comment Steve. Get them to move into Door County and you'd hear a lot more from concerned people. I say the same goes with fish spearing. Have the Indians start spearing the Eyes and trophy Muskies on the Bay of Green Bay and heads would roll.

The snow up north is exactly what was not needed this year. I am just thankful there was no ice on the lakes or ice fishing could have been ruined from day 1.

From: Naz
13-Nov-14
Wolves and bears certainly have an impact. However, their impact — no matter how you do the math — is no match for what the combination of bow and gun hunters kill every season, and what severe winters take. Factoring in the winter kill, and walking wounded whitetails from motorists/hunters/age/disease, predators could eat pretty well half the year or more. I'm not a wolf hugger. I'm for managing down to a legit 350 or less, and making them unprotected predators like coyotes year-round in "non-wolf" zones (any area outside the northern and central forest).

Smokey, more wolves today than in '06-'07 in your area, even with three years of legalized hunting/trapping, a lot of depredation trapping and plenty of illegal kills? I'm asking, not trying to be a wise guy. As for bears, the harvest has been very aggressive in the past decade. More or less bears today than in the mid-00s?

From: smokey
13-Nov-14
I was talking about the '90s.

From: Steve White
13-Nov-14
The 90's for without a doubt on the wolves. Still there is also no doubt there are more wolves in my entire area then there was in 06, 07, or even every year after. Very few have been taken with the hunting season. Only 1 I know of over 30 miles north of me. Nothing that I know of withing 30 miles. The packs just keep growing and dispersing. Of course the WDNR has their heads in the sand on it.

There is no way of them knowing how many deer killed each year. They always want to use that minmum over winter number for everything. Use the max number instead and things change real quick. We all know that canines eat far more when they are growing as well. So once they start eating big that 18 deer a year number goes out the window. Going from 5-700 to 14-1600 makes a huge difference just in the 18 deer number.

Ohh, and by the way. ITS STILL SNOWING!!!!!

From: RutNut@work
13-Nov-14
I always hear wolf experts say wolves only take x number of deer a year and usually just the sick, wounded, young/old. But these are the same experts that swear up and down that wolves NEVER thrill kill, or make kills of opportunity. That is BUNK, but I'm sure Bloodtrail will come on this thread also and tell me how wrong I am.

From: NWO
13-Nov-14
In the Spring those wolves must gobble those fawns up like potato chips. I bet they eat more deer than what is told.

From: Naz
13-Nov-14
Smokey, thanks.

There are tens of thousands of black bears and coyotes in Wisconsin. Cumulatively, they likely take as many — or more — fawns than wolves. Ongoing studies in Upper Michigan and Wisconsin have shown as much.

I've got a friend from Door County who hunts Ontonagon County, Michigan, in the heart of wolf (and hard-winter) country. His camp shoots deer every year because they put in a lot of stand time. He said they've seen an increase in daytime deer movement since wolf numbers have grown through the years (his group has been hunting up there for decades). He knows hard winters kill far more deer than wolves, and says it's obvious after severe winters vs. mild winters.

From: GoJakesGo
13-Nov-14
Oneida Co deer numbers are HORRIBLE. I don't think a person could poach a deer if they wanted to!

Wolf and bears are everywhere. Our group legally removed 4 bears this year. Hope to bring the coyote numbers down too.

From: happygolucky
14-Nov-14
It is not wolves by themselves. It is the culmination of predation on top of the harsh winters that makes the situation far worse. Predation is at an all time high. You have a decreased herd due to years of people slaughtering does. Now add on all the predation and then a harsh winter here and there and the situation up north is grim.

All of the wolves are not helping the herd rebound. The wolves need to be killed in far greater numbers. Once again, the wolf kill rate this year proved without a doubt that the wolf population far exceeds what the WDNR wants people to believe.

WI really needs to introduce wolves to Madison and Door County and then things would happen.

From: NWO
14-Nov-14
"WI really needs to introduce wolves to Madison and door County and then things would happen" ohhhh don't worry they are making there way down there as we write.

I agree whole heartedly, the low deer population is never do to one issue, it is a combination of things. Because of this we have such a low deer population and a high population of wolves and bears, another bad winter coming up, the deer have know chance to rebound, it will take years for them to come back if they do. Years ago when we had harsh winters, deer loss most understood it would get better in a few year, and it did, but we didn't have all the predator's that we do now, obviously it is having a huge impact on recovery and rebound.

From: Tag elder
14-Nov-14
GJG- I know your frustration, I too hunt Oneida county. There has actually been a lot of logging the last three years on and around the Willow (state land) I have been hunting a select cut the last several years. The food is there. Western Oneida and eastern Price counties are in bad shape.

From: RutNut@work
14-Nov-14
""WI really needs to introduce wolves to Madison"

Great idea, maybe they would develop an appetite for liberals;)

14-Nov-14
looks like the thaw we were suppose to be getting next weekend into the week after has disappeared from the long term forecast. Another early winter taking hold in the North. Only thing to hope for now is an early spring, less snow, and temps that aren't so brutal.

Another thing we need in my area is below average precipitation for the next 6 - 9 months. Its brutal trying to get anything accomplished in woods that went from being 30% swamp to 80 % over the last two years. Our swamps are now ponds, our ponds now lakes, and our woods now swamps. Beavers make this even worse, damn things wont go away, had 40 trapped off our 140 acres last winter. Couldn't even tell a dent had been made by this spring. Starting to get really sick of spending more time getting tractors and equipment unstuck than we have actually improving anything.

From: Naz
14-Nov-14

Naz 's Link
Something a little more steady would be nice ACU, but have to remember some northern WI lakes dropped many feet in the past decade or two (not to mention all the shallower wells that went dry), so replenishing water is more good than bad.

As for more logging, sounds like the Brule River Forest in Douglas County may get some needed work soon:

BRULE, Wis. - An amendment to the Brule River State Forest master plan would adjust the annual allowable timber harvest limit to account for the acquisition of 6,505 acres to the forest since the master plan was approved in 2002, under a proposal by the Department of Natural Resources that is currently open for public comments.

In addition, an updated forest inventory that provided more accurate information on the forest resources found a nearly 2,000 acre backlog of forest management practices including pine plantation thinning, and the thinning of jack pine, aspen, birch, scrub oak, fir, spruce and northern hardwood forests needed to ensure regeneration of those forests.

The 47,000-acre Brule River State Forest is located in eastern Douglas County in northwestern Wisconsin. The forest contains all 44 miles of the Bois Brule River, one of the best known rivers east of the Mississippi and known for more than 100 years as an exceptional trout stream. Management activities are omitted from the river valley and from other unique areas that make land management inappropriate for reasons such as aesthetics, erosion control, or threatened and endangered species habitat.

"The annual allowable harvest is an acreage amount of the forest that is scheduled to be managed to meet specific objectives," said Dave Schulz, Brule River State Forest superintendent. "Forest inventory data is collected for each stand within the state forest and the allowable harvest is calculated by thinning cycles or desired rotation ages for specific forest types and management objectives. For example, to maintain a healthy aspen forest on the Brule the average stand is typically regenerated through a harvest at 55 years old."

The current master plan set the annual allowable harvest level at 600 acres, which the proposed amendment would eliminate. The goal is to expedite harvest to eliminate the backlog and maintain a healthy sustainable forest and eventually reach an annual harvest of just under 1,000 acres annually on the existing and newer acquired properties. The department will accept public comments regarding the proposed amendment through Nov. 30, 2014.

"The amendment does not change the land management classifications, management areas or area objectives of the current master plan, it simply allows adjustments to the number of acres that can be managed in order to meet the plan objectives and ensure sustainable regeneration of forest resources," Schulz said.

Additional information, including the public involvement plan, draft plan amendment and associated background and analysis can be found on by searching the DNR website, dnr.wi.gov for keywords "Brule River" and then clicking on the tab for "management and business."

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