On January 10, 2015 a privately contracted FLIR survey (Vision Air) was done to check (100%) of the deer population in the whole town of Redding, CT. What the FLIR survey showed is that the other 9 partial surveys were incorrect; and was completed at a cost of $6,550.
On January 11-14, 2015 a second privately contracted FLIR survey ( Vision Air) was done to check (100%) of the deer population in the whole town of Newtown, CT. What the FLIR survey showed was the CT DEEP transect surveys covering only 1.5% of Newtown ( partial surveys ) were also incorrect when used for town wide deer density, and was completed at a cost of $6,600.
The privately contracted FLIR survey covered the entire town of Redding, CT and so it truly represents both the total number of deer in town and the deer density per square mile for the town. By sampling only fractions; 3-13%, all of which is preferred deer habitat in the town of Redding; the CAES (Connecticut Agricultural Experiment Station) and CT DEEP surveys can only reliably report the number of deer in those fractions; they attempt to extrapolate them as town-wide numbers and as a result their numbers are grossly overstated. The mistake they make is to consider their method as "sampling", claiming that any sample can be said to represent all areas not sampled as well as those sampled. This would be fine if we were talking about grains of sand on any beach from one area of the beach to another, but wildlife seek out preferred habitat in a town and will never be equally distributed in any town. This is why the numbers are in such disagreement; their repeat surveys merely demonstrate that you can repeat the same error multiple times and get the same wrong answer.
I think it's also important to say that getting the same wrong answer 9 times is just that-getting the same wrong answer. They're flying all those surveys to try and bury the argument under weight of numbers-specifically the number of their surveys, ( stacking the deck ). If you don't understand the basic flaw in their method you can easily be fooled by the " MAGIC SHOW ".
Try to envision taking on this large a task, putting in this many hours and knowing your going to be kicking at least one or two hornet nests along the way. I think you're all a very fair bunch and I think you'll conclude you have to have a genuine concern and you have to have one hell of a sense of commitment to see it through.
Does anyone not question why so many surveys if the privately-funded FLIR was supposedly so wrong? Are they looking that hard for deer or trying to answer the burning question of "Where's Waldo"?
The CT DEEP reads this site on a daily basis, the sportsmen on this site and throughout CT need to voice their opinion on the situation in Redding, CT and how DEEP has handled it. You have two more weeks until the ITM ( deer cull portion is finished ); only you can make a difference........Voice your opinion to let; Does walk......and to stopping the unlimited doe tag program.
You are correct; according to their study protocol deer can be culled from the 2 test sites if the number of deer in either is above the target of 10-12 dpsm.
The privately-funded FLIR in Redding showed both areas to be at the target area and that was before WB took 5 deer from the White Birch test site and 6 from Pheasant Ridge; based on the results of the Vision Air FLIR this would put both of the test sites below that targeted deer density.
The number of surveys conducted alone in March to the best of my knowledge exceeds the total number for the first 2 years combined; as of this writing no one has offered any explanation for why this needed to be done (tax dollars going to waste?) if there were 40 or better dpsm at both sites.
If the CAES and the CT DEEP wanted to put this issue to bed it would be very simple; post any films of these survey flights. One would think that would be priority #1 if they felt their numbers were being questioned and the questioners were wrong, wouldn't one?
Look back Crow, we repeat the same topics over and over. At least this topic provides some education, especially for the new hunter or the non-SW corner hunters.
:) :) :)
One thing is bringing topics back over and over. Most times that's done by the newbies. When 6 of the top 10 threads on the list is the same, it kindof SUCKS!
Stick to one thread.
I was kinda hoping Dr Williams would re-appear and we could start this all over again,.....NOT. :)
