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2016 Rut forecast

I know it's early to think about this but I just read this and found it interesting. Thoughts?

http://www.whitetailhabitatsolutions.com/blog/2016-rut- forecast-weekend-rut-timing/

I did not bother reading the link. The rut is the same time every year. Nature makes it that way. The moon garbage and any other stuff other then photo periodilism is just that garbage. Where I hunt in NY the chasing phase is the first week of Nov and actual breeding is roughly the 8th. of November to around the 18th. It has been that way for 40 years. Shawn

100% agree with deerman406

I agree! i usually start my vacation November 1st every year and don't come out of the tree until I kill one or shotgun season comes. Halloween usually is the start of mature bucks moving during daylight hours and continues to get better each day. After almost 40 years of hunting the best days for me have consistently been between November 3-11.

Ditto. Weather will be the factor that determines if all the action happens at night or during daylight hours.

best days for me is Nov 5, my birthday. I have been lucky to have taken several great bucks with the bow on that day.... but again it sure seems from Oct 28 to the start of the gun season the bucks are moving around, looking for the first doe to go into heat...

Same here. I take the first 2 weeks of Nov every year. Nov 6 is my lucky day more years than not.

I take from a few days before Halloween plus the whole month of Nov. in most of the whitetail range I hunt it is a bit later then in NY. I know Kansas, Nebraska and Iowa it tends to run about a week later. Chasing really going good from the end of fisrt week of Nov. and then breeding really picks up say the 14th to Thanksgiving. Shawn

If I'm not mistaken, the PA game commission did a study over a period of years whereas they removed the fetuses from road killed doe and aged them. Their data support photoperiodism rather than moon phases.

I shot the biggest ny buck of my life on October 15th. dressed 240 lbs. Made the book on a day that was 72 degrees. You just never know when it can happen. Most does cycle around the same date but a select few will go early and some late. Hunt as often as you can. Sometimes you have no rut action and someone a block of woods away has it happening .

Took my biggest buck, 147-1/8 net 216# on October 24th in "92", however, I took a buck the 16th of october "97", and one on October 15th of "98". they both dressed over 180#, and together missed P&Y by l.5 inches

I think this is the study you are referring to Cornpone.

http://ecosystems.psu.edu/research/projects/deer/news/2014/can-you-predict-the-rut

I think they said Nov 13th was the average peak of breeding. Which happens to be smack dab in the middle of what Deerman406 posted (Nov 8th - Nov 18th)

I'm guessing they will be moving around a little this weekend with a decent cold front moving in. I also agree that Halloween is the start of the good stuff but it all depends on the temps as well. Last year I took a few days off after Halloween and it was 75-80 degrees for 5 days straight so we saw very little movement.

Anybody that thinks the peak of the rut is the same time every year just hasn't been out in the woods enough. I wish it was that simple. Our hubris wants it to be that way. The folly of man.

Buckstop, it is a proven fact it is with days of the same time every year. Nature made it that way, we may see more or less of it due to weather and such but where I hunt and have hunted for over 40 years the fawn are born the same time every year, the first week in june. This is not to say some are not born earlier or later just the majority the first week in june. Shawn

The best way to determine when the rut happens is by parking your ass on stand as much as possible from the last week of October through the first week in December.

The deer will do the rest :)

Deerman: You are right to point out that the fawn drop as an indicator of the timing of the previous rut because the gestation period is a constant of 200 days...but the conclusion of always an early June drop doesn't hold water because the date when the fawns hit the ground shifts from mid-May to early June with some born in early May and some born even into the summer. In our neck of the woods the rut has three main peaks, one in October, one in November and one in December each year, but the days shift from year to year by a few weeks.But we are speaking in generalities as a doe can start estrus at any time in any patch of woods during that three month period. So this is more of a theoretical discussion. The moon which after all is just reflected sunlight skews the rut by a few weeks each year on basically a 19 year cycle.

The moon theory is garbage and it has been proven no ifs and s or buts and as I said my post is 100% correct. I am talking majority, there are always a few early and late but again most are bred within a few days of a particular date each and every year. Shawn

I saw a massive buck last night with a doe, not the first set I've seen together this year either. My cameras have been picking up bucks working scrapes since mid September.

Shawn: I'm dying of suspense, seriously. Boy, would that make things simple. What is the "particular" date?

Buckstopo you dont get it do you? Around here it is always around veterans day. Again read my post, it varies by a few days but it is not like two weeks or anything. Obviously you don't read much, oh wait you listen to Alsheimer and believe the moon phase BS. Shawn

Lets show a little patience for each other...Oak has been giving his much respected research and input on this subject for quite some time and I have personally benefited from his prognostications regarding the rut, 2013 was one of those seasons and my brother bagged a brute in late Nov. drunk with the rut here in WNY, I enjoy his ( in my opinion) expert advice when it comes this time of year on our forum.

Sorry but science has proven this over and over. I hunted for years where you could shoot all the does you wanted as long as you turned the head in and had them aged you would receive another tag. I spoke to a lot of biologist at the time and still do. They all agreed from their research that the rut has a very specific window and again the majority of the does are breed at that time. Again remember not all but the majority. Nature makes it that way sorry doe groups within an area after a short time mostly cycle together, fact of a deers life. Sorry. Shawn

Regardless of theories or if the stars and planets align. When the deer are ready it will happen.

You guys both seem like very knowledgeable hunters with more years of experience than most of us on here. I think we can take away useful info from both of you and look forward to your future posts. So anyways. ..how's the hunting been?? Oak and Shawn, how do you guys hunt during the peak of the rut...agressive calling?, all day sits, pinch point stands, stands near doe bedding areas?

Due to incessant internet banter and clashing thoughts the rut has been cancelled...........effective immediately for 2016.

Not that anyone cares but I tend to agree with Shawn on the rut, every year the action picks up the week after Halloween and seems to continue through Vets day weekend especially when the weather is holding temps sub 45. What is your thoughts on hunting the full moon? Lots of documents suggest hunting mid morning to mid afternoon and sleeping in. I can tell you one thing, don't eat hot wings and chili the evening before a morning sit! I lifted a cheek last weekend and cut some cheese that I could smell right through my scent blocker undies, less than 15 seconds later 2 doe blew behind me and bolted like they were struck by a toxic haze !

Their getting ready, I occasionally see deer on my way to work at 0430, this morning I saw 4 and three of them were bucks

Bowcephus is right on. If you're not in the woods as much as you can from last week of Oct to last week of Nov. you're risking missing some great action. With that being said, the vast majority of mature buck sightings for me have come between 11/7 and 11/20.

I don't mean to be a jerk, but I have been hunting the same ground for 45 years and do have a clue. As for how I hunt during the rut, is spend the whole month of Nov. on the woods. I do a lot of calling in NY but not a lot of rattling. I do use scent quite a bit starting around Nov. 5th. If I am in the mid-west then I do a lot of it all, calls, rattling and decoying as well. Drag rags work very well ecsp when the deer are starting to chase, the actual peak of breeding it is tough, as bucks get locked down. When that happens I have a tendency to set up right on top of doe bedding or thick cover. I will say this year as right now with the full moon, mid-day is the time to hunt. When the moon is directly over head(Full) or directly under foot(dark) and few days either side of that, the best movement is from 11 to 2 as long as it is not brutally hot. The hunting has been good and I am seeing more deer then I have since the 90's. I just have not had any real shooters closer then 50-70 yards. I think it will pick up towards the end of next week. Shawn

I get it Shawn, you do bring a lot to the table on these threads and I agree with some of your posts... At the same time these critters do things that just make you scratch your head and go huh??? I now pay attention to overhead and underfoot moon phases as that has increased my production of fresh venison. I take a little of everything and try to solve the puzzle and myself, I believe moon phase plays a roll in that equation. Let's Hunt!

I seem to always have contrary experiences. But I really appreciate my brothers of the bow telling it like they see it. I for one...and it is my opinion from 45 years of bowhunting NY...and a few other places, is that you can overhunt your stands and alert the deer. So, no offense, but "just being out there" is counterintuitive to my experience. I think it is wiser to lighten up hitting some stands and rotate them. No sense alerting the deer because we know that its hard to beat "first time in." I have been out almost every day because I have a few properties where I hunt. My best was the other night when two six-points came in, each at about 15 yards, and they tied into one another, ripping shrubs, pawing the ground, snort-wheezing,...what a show. So I backed out of there and hope that the nice buck (for my neck of the woods) that I have on trail cam will stroll on by when I'm in the stand. It is the yin and yang of bow-hunting...you have to be in a stand to shoot one. But too much time there alerts them. Oh, and to the previous discussion about the moon and its effect on the rut. There are biologists, like Dr. Kroll who have written books about the correlation of the full moon and the rut. Science is not just on the side of the anti's. But many animals are effected by the moon, from turtles, bass, and grunions.

I have 61 stands I maintain plus ground blinds. I over hunt nothing and also only hunt with the correct wind. I do ok. Shaw

Sorry but Kroll and Alsheimer and a few others Laroche, they have been proven wrong time and time again. Then they come up with the excuses it was cloudy during the full moon or the weather was vad. Again BS! Shawn

I do a lot of reading on all this rut stuff as well and I find that the best strategy for me is to use a little bit of everyone. My favorite to read is Peter Fiduccia, he seems to be the most accurate for me. More over I think we can ALL agree that you simply need to be in stand as much as possible from 10/25--12/1 at least. Don't forget to rotate stand usage!

Nov.5-15 has always been the peak in Northern NY.

Full moon tonight, zero movement. I did find scrapes on the ground, DeRuyter 7M.

Not quite full. Saturday night..at 12:23 am on Sunday. I had a 2.5 year old six point under me this evening working a scrape. How cool. He was about 10 yards away...cold thermal was perfect so he didn't have a clue I was there. He really mouthed and salivated on the branches. His drool hit the ground and he smelled it. I think what we have assumed is that the ground scrape primary scent is urine drenched tarsal scent, but I think that the drool...all those pheromones in the saliva is the perhaps the key ingredient on the ground. Let five walk so far.

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