Contributors to this thread:
OK guys, I am sure many of you have just submitted your app too! Let's get some dialogue going??? I am nonres and applied for 3 a/c and 27. (archery) I know both are a long shot. I really struggled this year but bought this gohunt software that helped me understand my situation. I really weighed the idea of putting in for a midtier hunt or even going with a late season rifle in trophy area (with 8 bonus points it was almost 100% odds). In the end I decided to keep trying for trophy archery. How about the rest of you?
Norseman- been to 5bs 3 times and always did a little preseason scouting at 5bn. I like that unit myself
Just curious Norseman , how many points ? If you have enough points to draw 5Bn in the bonus round you have no chance at 9. At least that's my understanding.
With the new amount of random tag allocation everyone should have a shot in any unit they choose. Definitely slim in units like 9 but doesn't hurt to put a great unit first choice.
4 points Just hoping for a good number in the draw. I'm sure I'm 3 years out yet from drawing 5bn from the NR max pool. Thanks for looking out for me Lloyd!!
I went last year and for some reason it made me want a tag even worse! With only two points, I put in for my usual and second choice was a late archery hunt. I have a 33% chance of drawing this way.
I put my wife and big kids in for early rifle permits and my youngest in for junior and late rifle hunts. With 7 apps in the system, surely SOMETHING will come through!
Nesser, Fin little is right. You have to be careful when you get up there in points as if you have enough points to be in the bonus round in your second choice, but not your first, you will always get that second choice tag. That being said, you'll be hunting!
Trperk1, your getting close my friend. It could definitely happen. Especially for 27.
"4 points Just hoping for a good number in the draw. I'm sure I'm 3 years out yet from drawing 5bn from the NR max pool."
Don't buy your "I Heart Arizona Elk Hunting" shirt quite yet. You are about 6 years out currently (NR Took 10 points in 5BN for a NR to be guaranteed a bonus round tag in 2016)....and it might get worse by then with point creep. It took 19 points for your first choice, Unit 9 last year.
Norseman- don't be discouraged. I drew 5bs with o points once.
Norseman- don't be discouraged. I drew 5bs with o points once.
Not discourage. I'll be back someday soon
I drew back to back last 2 years. Hoping and Praying for a third..i drew 3 years in a row and 2 leftover tags..hunted Az 5 straight years. 2 bull 3 cows..Always a chance. I have had 14 elk tags out of the 16 years I have hunted elk here. Always a chance... It has alot to do with availability of tags. There may be 2 tags left in a unit and a app gets pulled with 3 hunters on it. The app with 3 hunters gets thrown back in the pool. Then if a single app comes up. They will get a tag leaving one for another single hunter app. I hunted my favorite unit 12 out of the 14 hunts Ive been on. Always a chance.. Good luck all....
Elktrax, there is always a chance, especially since the rule change to help NR's a year or so ago. However, these guys are mostly all NR's. They are trying to random draw to no more than 5% of the available tags in the unit, where you are drawing to 80%.
If everything works out I will draw my 3rd bull tag in a row. I have point guarded the person I put in with in hopes of using there points again for a 4th tag in a row. It's a loophole that many are taking advantage of.
1 & 3A/3C NR archery with 15 but ain't gonna happen with all the 9ers jumping the sinking ship. 466 in the 16/17 point pools alone. I moved on with CO plans. 21 years long enuf there.
"with all the 9ers jumping the sinking ship"
I was curious what you meant by that? Meaning max point people getting tired of waiting and moving to other units, quality of unit decline?
19 NR points, unit 9 first and only choice, I ain't jumping ship.
I think Zim's goin huntin
Point for me... I have a Ak moose hunt in September. 19b for antelope with 12 points... Ed F
Agreed, Zim's going hunting.
My slick new goHunt software says Zim is 100% for 1.....
Points for me this year and next , I think I will draw Colorado deer this year Utah 2018..... TOM
"My slick new goHunt software says Zim is 100% for 1..... "
That's because they're showing you odds for 2016. If you don't have the nr point pools, you're just guessing . Zim is about 50% for that hunt, close to 100% for his 2nd choice.
"Zim is about 50% for that hunt, close to 100% for his 2nd choice" It's all a guess Bob. Nobody knows the exact impact of the changes in applicant trends but I like goHunt logic as they perform statistical modeling from years of data, not just 2016. But with that said there isn't any guarantee.
Based on 2016 apps and draw results, both hunts for NR with 15 bonus points were 100% draw . Point creep will change that, as will people changing units of choice. All things considered, Zim has a darn good chance at one of those hunts, better than I do with my 8 as a resident.
I like to know where I'm at going into the AZ draw, so I look at Bonus Point pools. For unit 1, they cleaned out all the nr from 15 points and above last year. They cleaned out all the residents from 12 points and above.
There were 24 nr in the 14 point pool, which will be the 15 point pool for 2017. They'll pull 15 nr tags from that 15 point pool in the Bonus Pass and any other apps that jump in with the same or more points. While you can't predict the future, you can get close when you have the pool numbers and a few years of data showing how many move into this unit. Unit 1 was 100% with 15 points in 2016 and might be 50% for 2017. You can find hunts that go from 10% to 100% as well. Personally, I'd like to know that my odds are actually closer to 100 than 10 going into the draw; it would have an impact on where I apply.
Dave, are you still holding out? 8 points starts to give you some good guarantees....
"19 NR points, unit 9 first and only choice, I ain't jumping ship."
It's not the 19+ point guys that are likely to jump. As I mentioned, it's the 16/17 point guys. I'm wagering that more than 5% of the 466 know how to use a calculator. I don't have time to crunch the numbers again, but if you add up all the unit 9 & 23 hunts, all weapons, and deduct those from the 16+ NR point holders you will see it's now going to take 20 years to clear out all those guys. I really don't think I'm going out on a limb here to say my 15 points don't have a snowball's chance in hell of drawing the next tier units down from 9/23. Anyone really think these 466 are willing to wait 35 years for an elk tag?
Chris, I caved,… I want to hunt unit 9, but I had a whopping 3.8% chance of drawing. Don't like those odds. Went 5BS first( 19%) and 4A second with a 39% chance. Perfect world next year with 9 bpts, ( based upon 2016 draw data) I would hit the bonus point pass on either, if point creep did not occur. I hope I don't have to worry about point creep and finally become one of the chosen ones for elk.
" Anyone really think these 466 are willing to wait 35 years for an elk tag? "
There are 2,000+ people that apply for Unit 22 for sheep each year, and the vast majority of them are looking at a 500 year wait....so, yes.
Ginormous difference between an elk tag and a sheep tag.
The vast majority of hunters that apply for le hunts have no clue how long of a wait they have and they don't care enough to educate themselves.
My point is, if thousands of people apply for a hunt that is an absolute impossibility to draw in multiple lifetimes, I can certainly believe people will apply for elk for 35 years to get drawn. Perhaps you overestimate the average person's knowledge of how any of these drawings even work, or they're just stupid.
No Tags- I think 5BN is a awesome unit. I was contemplating the same myself. I dare to say I was even thinking of a late season rifle hunt in Unit 27....great odds there. But I kept at it..maybe a gluten for punishment
The late archery elk start date and the non resident odds unveiled will cause some people to switch . I did. I dropped from 3A/3C to 7W as a second choice with 13 points. I could see that 3C could take up to 8 yrs at my level and Im not willing to wait. Im getting old. 7W at 13 points should be better than 50% but probably not.
Best of luck Dave! Great chance at 4a and I know you know it well. Pretty good shot at 5b S also.
Fin little, 7W should be a great hunt for you if you don't get your first choice.
"My point is, if thousands of people apply for a hunt that is an absolute impossibility to draw in multiple lifetimes, I can certainly believe people will apply for elk for 35 years to get drawn. Perhaps you overestimate the average person's knowledge of how any of these drawings even work, or they're just stupid. "
Considering the ease of and amount of info on internet forums as well as the proliferation of new hunting publications like Epic, HF, EJ, Toprut, etc. educating applicants, I just can't imagine 5% of the 460 aren't going to figure things out. When the stats come out, I bet you see plenty of guys in the 16 & 17 pools walking with 1 & 3C tags. A good case precedent for this is CO 61. Either way I got my CO plans ready to roll.
I agree that they'll eventually figure it out, but when these companies/sites don't know or don't bother to tell their customers what is in front of them, "eventually" could be a while.
I think that those of us that go on these web sites and do research are in the very small minority. The huge majority of hunters have absolutely no idea how any of the drawings really work, or what their true draw odds are.
All I know is, when it comes to elk, my odds suck every year! I am cursed ! However, having been unbelievably lucky and having drawn both a desert ram and a bison tag against huge odds I don't get too wadded up about it. Yet! I use Hunters trailhead for my info, and they do show how many people had the same bonus points as you the previous year etc. I find it a good tool, and definitely an eye opener, as in when I looked at my chances for unit 9 this year. ( crummy!) Perhaps my credit card alert will flash in around another three weeks, and surprise me. good luck to all on the draw!
Tags, the odds you posted above, assuming those to be odds going into 2017, are twice what the 2017 odds really are for those two hunts.
"Tags, the odds you posted above, assuming those to be odds going into 2017, are twice what the 2017 odds really are for those two hunts."
True for 5bs based on the BP round for 5bs last year. There were 40 tags available in the BP round. There were 35 ppl who applied with 9 or greater points which left 57 people competing for the 5 remaining tags. However....you still have the 1-2 pass chance with a large number of points. That may be the overall draw odds taking into effect the 1-2 pass as well.
Regarding 4a, those odds seem correct (33 bonus tags available): There were 21 ppl with 9 or greater points (14 drew) which left 19 tags for the remaining 49 people. From my notes 4a has gone into the 8 point range for the BP round each year for the last 5+.
5BS, they cleaned out all but 23 residents from 8 points and above. There were 107 residents in Notags 7 point pool. For 2017, they will fill the remaining 23 resident apps with 9 points, leaving only 7 apps to be drawn from Notags 107 apps in the 8 point pool, 6.5%.
4A, they drew 25 residents from 41 resident apps with 8 points or more, leaving 16. There were 58 residents in the 7 point pool (Notags pool). If the pools remain the same, they will only pull 9 resident apps from Notags pool of 58, 15.5%
They did not draw a single nr from last years 8 point pool for either hunt and have historically filled the nr cap for virtually all hunts, nor did they clean out the nr 9 point pools for the two subject hunts.
i have done as much reading as i can to try and follow and figure this stuff out. I don't subscribe to the hunting sites like HF,EJ ETC most of my reading has come from this site, F&G and some MM. Its still all pretty confusing to me. My question is did the NR change really have any effect on the tags being draw by guys. My understanding is with the change (talking NR) X-number of tags go to bonus pts then remaining % are drawn from pool of everyone, so random. If i had 2-4 points is there any chance to draw a tag like 27, or 9 however slight. Or is it mathematically impossible due to the tags being filled by the bonus pass. Thanks for the help just trying to get it right.
Nr still drew their 10% minus a cpl tags. The change increased the resident draw to 15% in the Bonus Pass which will cycle them thru faster leaving more and more non res at the upper levels. There is still 5% available for nr in the. 1-2 pass so everybody has a chance. Your bonus points give you a weighted advantage as well.
You absolutely have a chance!
Until last year, it would have been mathematically impossible, but after the change a year ago you do have a very, very slight chance.
Ok that makes me feel better. These days a slight chance is about all one can hope for.
At least I feel like I have some since of understanding on the draw. My hat is off to all of you though, the knowledge you possess on the whole process is impressive. And no easy feat to come by so thank you for your input and comments. Thanks
Best of luck to all in the draw
I'm with Dink at 19pts. The way the draw is set up now, a NR with mid-tier pts should apply for a hail marry then go after a unit more in their draw range. But for the guys who've been riding this for as long as we have, there's really no choice but to stay the course, even with unit 9 not being what it used to be. We're still able to throw a hail marry, but it's at one tag in either 23N or 23S.
I'm actually looking forward to applying for a mid tier unit someday. Still way better hunt than an OTC tag in other states. But I need to use my 19pts wisely and hope for a major rebound in unit 9.
Did you apply this year BigRed?
Yes, 23N Hail Mary, unit 9 second choice
If things remain as they were last year, you won't likely have any chance at all of 23N and will draw your second choice in the bonus point round before they even consider your first choice.
The computer always look at your first choice but a NR can't draw a 23N or S tag in the Bonus Pass.
If you listen closely you can almost hear santa's sleigh!
No Whammies. no whammies…...
Come on BIG MONEY, come on BIG MONEY!
Arrrgghhhh my card hasn't been hit yet!!!! Damn the system all to heck!!!!
it is silent in the morning, no texts from hunting buddies…. the internet is quiet…. hunting blogs are dormant... could GF be messing with us again? AAAAARRRGGGGHHHH!!!!
My buddies got hit ...Its on..