Staten Island LD cases up 12,000%
Connecticut
Dr Williams - is that possibly a stat that significantly over estimates? I'm just thinking that diagnosis of LD is still not as easy as "the blood test" which may not work if done to soon etc... Even more so, providers were far less aware of looking for it in the early 2000's, so it went un-dx'd often or mis-dx'd.
I'm sure it went up - it's gone up everywhere... But this sort of seems like a situation that could be inflated a lot by improved diagnosis.
Wow is right. What kind of human would kick his pregnant teacher in the stomach. Probably not his fault.Oh wait, you must be talking about the Lyme disease article.
HURRY UP!!!!! Call WB to save staten island!
99% of the people that I talk to (that have Lyme disease) get bit in their own back yard. I’ve hardly met more than a few hunters/ hikers that think got it in the woods. Ironic.
So yet another scientific statement made by Doc that is absolutely un-scientific. LD went up 12% while the population on Staten Island is the fastest growing area of all NY boroughs, so is it possible that more people = more LD? What about where the people live or recreate, doesn't that have to be considered? And what about the mice population, what impact did they have on the LD problem? Oh wait, WB doesn't kill or snip mice so you won't hear anything about treating the cause of the problem from Doc, just the symptoms. Follow the money boys.
And I guess returning the bucks to the island after snipping them will continue the trend of higher LD incidence and deer/car collisions. Makes all the sense in the world if you're a politician like mayor Bill.
You get what you pay for, and if the bleeding heart liberals want more LD and deer/car collisions while paying over $3 mil for it, I say they deserve it. Maybe mayor Bill will have a different viewpoint if he contracts LD???
10:13. Hi Will. The stat does not significantly overestimate, in fact, most certainly underestimates the actual number of LD cases there. This is further evidenced by your blood test scenario, in which doctors would not report LD as the result of a negative blood test. And to address your statement “it’s gone up everywhere,” it has not. In the rest of New York State (excluding Staten Island and Brooklyn) from 2000-2003, there were 19,231 cases of LD. From 2013-2016, there were 16,393. So while the rest of NY Lyme disease cases decreased by 15%, the number of cases on Brooklyn and Staten Island increased by 1240%. That is a pretty striking difference with only one logical difference between the intervals, an exploding deer population. Feel free to check those numbers using the link to the CDC data here: https://www.cdc.gov/lyme/resources/ld-Case-Counts-by-County-00-16.csv.
In an urban environment like NYC, which one cannot get much more urban than that anywhere else in the US, you would expect there to be next to zero cases of LD. Which was the case in the early 2000s before Staten Island was invaded with deer. With increased deer come increased ticks and increased human exposure to ticks. It’s a great study location too as there were virtually no deer there previously and the only variable that has changed in tick-borne disease ecology in that urban environment has been that dramatic increase in deer. Could the increase in LD be the result of public education, awareness, and increased diagnoses? Maybe, but doubtful it explains all the 1200% increase given the urban nature of these areas and historic low number of cases pre-deer.
Haha Bob. Not 12%, 1200%. That is twelve hundred percent, not twelve percent, twelve hundred. Staten Island human population went from 443,728 in 2000 to 468,730 in 2010: a 6% increase. That does not come close to explaining a 1200% increase in LD cases. Try again. Maybe this was of concern and is why they opted to address the deer population. WB started their work on SI in late 2016, on the tail end of the intervals of these stats. Meaning, these stats dictated the work by WB not the other way around.
Doc - better check YOUR math, it's 1340 % (115 to 1541), not 12,000%. My mistake was reading the title of the thread too quickly, your's is in your math. And this is for Staten Island AND Brooklyn. How many deer are in Brooklyn Doc? And you stated several times that SI is a crowded environment, not suitable for hunting (even though someone who lives on the Island stated there were more a few places that could support it) so is it possible a 6% increase in population yields a 90% increase in tick/person contact? I don't know the answer and neither do you. And yes, I understand the stats are prior to WB, so why on earth would they return the deer to the island instead of removing them,......permanently? And what about the mice? Ohhhhh, no money in mice so let's not bring attention to root cause of the problem.
If education was working people would be checking themselves for ticks, like I've done for nearly 50 years with zero bites, and not reporting the disease to the doctors. And it's 11:04 but who cares, I'm retired.
12:28. Oops!! Yup, 1200%, not 12,000%! I'm doing too many things at once and moved the decimal too far over. Thanks for the correction. Still, far greater than human population growth and other cases for the same intervals in NY state. What was the difference between the intervals? Deer!
(1541 - 115) / 115 = 1,240% increase.
Always glad to help out Doc. What SI needs is more poachers, not snip it's.
Dr Williams - cool. I figured lack of diagnostic criteria and abilities 10+ years ago could have resulted in under reporting. Then again, that would wash out given that wouldnt only happen on SI...
That NY state total is interesting - what has been attributed to the reduction in LD cases 13-16.
Oh, and get that Sage Ready - I've seen some guys already getting SB's on the fly down your way!
I do not know how many deer are in Brooklyn. But I do know Lyme disease cases are on the increase in New York City (up 570%) as compared to the rest of New York State where they have declined by a third during the reported interval. Here is a table from the data in the link I provided in my response above. What I do know is that there a lot more ticks in NYC these days than there used to be. Why? Lots of deer inside city limits where there are lots of people.
I stand by the fact that SI is not suitable to hunting, and so do the politicians of NYC. I know that a 6% increase in human population does not equate to a 953% increase in Lyme disease diagnoses. So let’s look at Maryland, one of the 14 states that account for 95% of Lyme disease cases. Its human population grew 9% from 2000 to 2010 (5,296,486 to 5,773,552). And its Lyme disease cases grew 126% during the intervals in question (2725 in 2000-2003 to 6164 in 2013-2016). MD had 50% more human population growth than did Staten Island with not even a fraction of the LD increase (126% vs 953% increase). Staten Island and NYC increase in LD diagnoses are localized effects caused by an increase in large-bodied tick hosts within city limits.
Will. I'm actually going up to Cabela's with my son tomorrow to buy him a beater 6 weight for his birthday to learn on. ''Tis the season!
Now that we have a match to begin with doc and BBB, we should have a women's tennis match, sound effect, playing in the background. That would be awesome. Cueing up not me lol
Kounikova,Sabitini,Sharapova,Mirza....gigity gigity..gotta go
You guys are so sure it's the deer that's the culprit. I have it on good authority it's the Russians
Haha! Russians! Regardless of the source, it pretty obvious something is going on over there to see that dramatic increase. But it's probably not the deer. . .
Hey, has anyone else noticed the similarities between the whining of Hillary and Doc? Hillary with her losing record and Doc with "It's the ticks that did it, the ticks !"
What does it matter, theyre only ticks
Excuse me while I go gouge my eyes out.
Those some rotten peaches
I know there Bob..flushing my eyes in an open sewer seems to be restoring my vision..lol
Too many deer are a public health threat to the majority of the public. Too many deer only benefits a very small minority of the population represented here on this site. Enlightened hunters understand this truth, as do the politicians. Ignorant ones blame the messenger.
