Draw odds question
Colorado
I am wondering if there is a way to look up what percentage of people actually draw their 2nd choice. Using hunt code EM077O1A for instance. 37% of residents drew it as their 2nd choice. My question is. Is there a way to know how many were not even in the 2nd draw list due to drawing their 1st choice tag. In turn making the draws odd better than 37%
If I'm understanding, the 37% should be 37% of people actually in the draw for 77 2nd choice. If there are 200 others who had 77 as a second choice but drew their 1st choice, they should never be counted in the 77 2nd choice success numbers.
Ok. Thanks. I always assumed that if you put a 1st, 2nd, 3rd or 4th choice on an application then it would show up on the draw recap.
I was just looking thru the recaps and seen a unit that had leftovers. But showed people had put it down as a 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice in the "pre-draw applications". Then look at the "post draw" it show none of them drew. So I am assuming that they drew a previous choice. But when I look up in the draw % section, it says "N/A".
"If I'm understanding, the 37% should be 37% of people actually in the draw for 77 2nd choice. If there are 200 others who had 77 as a second choice but drew their 1st choice, they should never be counted in the 77 2nd choice success numbers. "
No, the stats show they are including people who got their other 1st choice as being part of the "unsuccessful" percentage in the second choice.
For example, Unit EM077O1A, of 510 total resident applicants, 239 listed the unit as a 2nd choice. 89 of them got the tag as a 2nd choice. The %drawn at final level is given as 37% (89/239 x 100). But obviously some of those 239 actually got their 1st choice tag but were counted in the 2nd choice % unsuccessful anyway.
Aspen ghost. That's how I understand it was done. I would guess that a big chunk had a PP as 1st choice. But I could see 10-20% drawing their first choice, in turn making that 239 applicants be more like 200.
Ks, you and Aspen have it correct. Draw report will show a 2nd choice applicant even if they were eliminated from the 2nd round due to drawing their 1st choice tag.
No way to figure out what your researching with the info available to us in the draw recap report.
My head hurts.
So if 100 people had unit XX as 2nd choice and there were 200 tags left over after the 1st choice applicants, the odds of drawing it 2nd choice would be 100%.
But, 99 of them drew their first choice in some other unit, that leaves one guy that drew 2nd choice. Odds would show 100 applicants and one drawn or 1% chance when it was actually 100% chance?
That's right Glunt. 2nd choice data isn't very useful.
^^In that hypothetical it would not show a percent for 2nd choice odds. The draw would continue through 3rd and fourth choice applicants. The report would show percentage for whatever round the quota was exhausted. If nobody applied for unit xx as 3rd or 4th choice the report would just say “leftovers”
Didn't think of that Jethro, obviously correct.
Now I want the same data KSrancher asked about. I have been looking at draw stats for years and never realized 2nd choice % includes people who weren't actually in the 2nd choice pool. Feels like when I was sure my compass was somehow 180 degrees off compared to where I "knew" my destination was in Alaska...it wasn't.
Glunt. Just look at like a Christmas present. Your odds are better than you figure they are. You just don't know by how much.
I wish they would make 2 columns. One that shows the total number of 2nd, 3rd and 4th choice applicants. And another column that shows people that are in that particular draw
You can tell how many drew their first choice if any tags went as third or fourth choice. In that case the number drawn as second choice is the number that didn't draw their first choice.
I'm not sure it matters because it wouldn't be consistent from year to year.
