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Financial Ignoramus Does It AGAIN!
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Contributors to this thread:
NvaGvUp 22-Mar-18
AZOnecam 22-Mar-18
HDE 22-Mar-18
buckhammer 22-Mar-18
Grey Ghost 22-Mar-18
NvaGvUp 22-Mar-18
bigeasygator 22-Mar-18
TD 22-Mar-18
NvaGvUp 22-Mar-18
TGbow 22-Mar-18
Your fav poster 22-Mar-18
Bentstick81 22-Mar-18
Mike the Carpenter 22-Mar-18
Tiger eye 22-Mar-18
Bownarrow 22-Mar-18
Michael 22-Mar-18
JL 22-Mar-18
HDE 22-Mar-18
NvaGvUp 22-Mar-18
slade 22-Mar-18
bigeasygator 22-Mar-18
TGbow 23-Mar-18
'Ike' (Phone) 23-Mar-18
Mike the Carpenter 23-Mar-18
Woods Walker 23-Mar-18
bigeasygator 23-Mar-18
Mint 23-Mar-18
Grey Ghost 23-Mar-18
bigeasygator 23-Mar-18
'Ike' (Phone) 23-Mar-18
sureshot 23-Mar-18
Tiger-Eye 23-Mar-18
Grey Ghost 23-Mar-18
Whitey 23-Mar-18
Mint 23-Mar-18
NvaGvUp 23-Mar-18
NvaGvUp 23-Mar-18
Rocky 23-Mar-18
Grey Ghost 23-Mar-18
'Ike' (Phone) 23-Mar-18
Bentstick81 23-Mar-18
sureshot 23-Mar-18
slade 24-Mar-18
TD 24-Mar-18
WV Mountaineer 24-Mar-18
Rocky 24-Mar-18
Whitey 24-Mar-18
Thumper 24-Mar-18
BC 24-Mar-18
Bonafide 24-Mar-18
TD 26-Mar-18
slade 26-Mar-18
Seapig@work 26-Mar-18
'Ike' (Phone) 26-Mar-18
HDE 26-Mar-18
WV Mountaineer 26-Mar-18
Thumper 27-Mar-18
Thumper 27-Mar-18
Shuteye 27-Mar-18
Amoebus 02-Apr-18
HDE 02-Apr-18
bigeasygator 02-Apr-18
HDE 02-Apr-18
Will 02-Apr-18
bigeasygator 02-Apr-18
TD 02-Apr-18
bigeasygator 02-Apr-18
Beendare 02-Apr-18
NvaGvUp 02-Apr-18
NvaGvUp 02-Apr-18
WV Mountaineer 02-Apr-18
sureshot 02-Apr-18
NvaGvUp 02-Apr-18
sureshot 02-Apr-18
NvaGvUp 02-Apr-18
bigeasygator 02-Apr-18
sureshot 02-Apr-18
bigeasygator 02-Apr-18
WV Mountaineer 02-Apr-18
bigeasygator 02-Apr-18
WV Mountaineer 02-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
sureshot 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
Grey Ghost 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
Grey Ghost 03-Apr-18
Grey Ghost 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
HDE 03-Apr-18
Grey Ghost 03-Apr-18
Grey Ghost 03-Apr-18
TD 03-Apr-18
buckhammer 03-Apr-18
LaughingWater 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
WV Mountaineer 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 03-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
Grey Ghost 04-Apr-18
NvaGvUp 04-Apr-18
HDE 04-Apr-18
sureshot 04-Apr-18
Rocky 04-Apr-18
Your fav poster 04-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
HDE 04-Apr-18
Bowbender 04-Apr-18
Mint 04-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
Mint 04-Apr-18
HDE 04-Apr-18
Shuteye 04-Apr-18
TD 04-Apr-18
Shuteye 04-Apr-18
Rocky 04-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
HDE 04-Apr-18
'Ike' 04-Apr-18
Michael 04-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
Rocky 04-Apr-18
Michael 04-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
Michael 04-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
bigeasygator 04-Apr-18
TGbow 04-Apr-18
LaughingWater 05-Apr-18
HDE 05-Apr-18
bigeasygator 05-Apr-18
HDE 05-Apr-18
WV Mountaineer 05-Apr-18
bigeasygator 05-Apr-18
jjs 05-Apr-18
Bentstick81 05-Apr-18
WV Mountaineer 05-Apr-18
Your fav poster 06-Apr-18
HDE 06-Apr-18
Your fav poster 06-Apr-18
Bullshooter 06-Apr-18
Michael 06-Apr-18
Bullshooter 06-Apr-18
WV Mountaineer 06-Apr-18
tonyo6302 07-Apr-18
Amoebus 07-Apr-18
Bullshooter 07-Apr-18
Beendare 07-Apr-18
TD 07-Apr-18
slade 10-Apr-18
sureshot 10-Apr-18
bigeasygator 11-Apr-18
slade 11-Apr-18
bigeasygator 11-Apr-18
Amoebus 18-Apr-18
Amoebus 18-Apr-18
MK111 18-Apr-18
tonyo6302 18-Apr-18
Thumper 22-May-18
slade 22-May-18
slade 05-Jun-18
slade 22-Nov-18
Grey Ghost 22-Nov-18
Rocky 22-Nov-18
Mint 22-Nov-18
IdyllwildArcher 22-Nov-18
From: NvaGvUp
22-Mar-18
Way to go, President Trump!

Your insane decision to impose BILLIONS of dollars of tariffs on Chinese imports crashed the markets today, meaning Americans saw their retirement accounts, College Savings Accounts and other investment accounts lose BILLIONS upon BILLIONS of dollars today.

As most all here on the CF have agreed, corporations do not pay taxes, they only collect taxes.

Yet essentially, that's exactly what tariffs do. Because when you come right down to it, tariffs are nothing more than a tax on people and companies who buy stuff.

Those foreign companies then pass the tariffs you want on to the American citizens who buy stuff, whether manufactured in the USA or not.

AMERICANS will suffer most of the costs of your insanely stupid and financially illiterate tariffs, you ignoramus, not Chinese companies.

Your insane tariffs will also cost AMERICANS millions of jobs, because that's what tariffs do. If China retaliates, more MILLIONS of AMERICAN jobs will be lost in addition.

Then again I ask, just where in the Constitution does it give you the authority to bypass Congress to do this?

Answer: NO WHERE!

From: AZOnecam
22-Mar-18
Totally agree. This was a bad move for America.

From: HDE
22-Mar-18
My accounts had a net decrease of less than 1%.

No biggie...

From: buckhammer
22-Mar-18
You aint seen nothing yet. China is the largest importer of American soybeans, soybean oil and soybean meal. 92 million acres of soybeans will be planted this year by American farmers. China has already stated that they will be placing a tariff on these products. When the good old boys of the heartlands are unable to move their beans and start to take it up the rear we will see how much real support Trump has then from the red states.

From: Grey Ghost
22-Mar-18
Jan. 5 2018.....

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
22-Mar-18
HDE,

1. The only accounts that matter are your equity accounts.

2. Many mutual funds don't report their day-end-prices for at least another HOUR!

From: bigeasygator
22-Mar-18
Tariffs are unforced errors. Markets don't like tariffs and they don't like trade wars. Here come the Chinese and there go the soybeans...

From: TD
22-Mar-18
Guess I'm a financial ignoramus too. I get it that trade wars suck. But exactly what DO you do to make them stop the tech theft, dumping materials and the counterfeiting of products? What leverage DO you have?

Or do you just ignore it all because your personal stock portfolio is rolling along all shiny and spiffed up? I don't know the answer. Maybe this will bring them to the table. Everybody said the same "sky was falling" when he was dealing with NK..... but it looks like they are at least coming to the table. We shall see.

From: NvaGvUp
22-Mar-18
TD,

Tariffs will have ZERO influence on Tech Theft or Counterfeiting. Those are completely different issues. Those are LEGAL issues and should be dealt with accordingly.

From: TGbow
22-Mar-18
Tarriffs only benefit certain individuals. Tarriffs are not good imo.

22-Mar-18
Negotiating is how you do it. And anyone that’s negotiated buying a car knows you don’t barge into the office and demand that the dealer give you the car for 500$ or you’ll set fire to his dealership. That’s what trump negotiations look like. And now the American people , namely farmers according buckhammer, are going to take it on the nose. Wasn’t he supposed to be ‘the deal maker’? Another con by the conman in chief.

From: Bentstick81
22-Mar-18
And another DUMBA$$ reply by the LIAR IN CHIEF.

22-Mar-18
They need food more than we need cheap Chinese merchandise. Plan retirement savings around true diversification, have faith in your country and go to work everyday. Sounds simple, but very few want to do it. So many out there want to buy cheap crap and expect instant gratification.

From: Tiger eye
22-Mar-18
I have learned that market swings like the one occurring today are typically driven by emotion.

That is the last thing we should pay attention to when investing, otherwise it's betting.

Tariffs good/ bad? We will see. I am leaning to it being good for America albeit not the best thing for my 401k right now.

In the long run ( which is my stategy) that which is good for America is typically good for me.

Pigs get fat. Hogs get slaughtered.

From: Bownarrow
22-Mar-18
Nav, we don't always agree, but we agree on this!; )

From: Michael
22-Mar-18
It’s too early to cry wolf on the soy bean market. If China decides to buy elsewhere our beans can be sold elsewhere. It won’t happen over night of course

From: JL
22-Mar-18
I think the saying is bears make money...bulls make money...pigs get slaughtered.

From: HDE
22-Mar-18
NvaGvUp

That's why I said net decrease...

From: NvaGvUp
22-Mar-18
Tariffs COST jobs and punish American consumers, pure and simple.

There is no 'wait and see' on that because that's the facts, Jack.

From: slade
22-Mar-18
TD, x2

President Trump just announced a new series of tariffs on roughly $50 billion in Chinese imports. These new tariffs are the result of a seven-month investigation into China’s continued theft of US intellectual property. “We have a tremendous intellectual property theft problem. It’s going to make us a much stronger, much richer nation,” President Trump told reporters this morning. “This has been long in the making.”

Only a liberal or fool would think the Chicom's would give a shite about so called "legal issues" whatever that is when they have been openly pursuing "Tech Theft & Counterfeiting".

From: bigeasygator
22-Mar-18
“Tariffs COST jobs and punish American consumers, pure and simple. There is no 'wait and see' on that because that's the facts, Jack.”

It’s Economics 101. Tariffs = deadweight loss.

From: TGbow
23-Mar-18
That's the biggest reason we fought a civil war..tarriffs.

23-Mar-18
But Slade, it affected the market man, the market!!! ;-)

23-Mar-18

Mike the Carpenter's embedded Photo
Mike the Carpenter's embedded Photo

From: Woods Walker
23-Mar-18
It's the long game, right? Or so I've heard.

From: bigeasygator
23-Mar-18

bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
The market is just a proxy for the impact tariffs will have - higher prices, less consumption, lost jobs, and reduced wages. You can argue how much higher prices will actually go, how much consumption will decrease, how many jobs and how much in wages will be lost - but there is no debating that they won’t happen. It’s fact.

From: Mint
23-Mar-18
Was everybody not listening when Trump was campaigning? The liberal fools can't make up their minds, first they were saying Trump is doing everything so his company makes more money and now with the tariffs which will be a hit against building developers they are silent. Tariffs do indeed suck but when you are dealing with China you need to be as ruthless as they are. F them! They manipulate their currency, bully everyone, steal our technology, expect our markets to be wide open while they close theirs to our goods. etc. Sooner or later the line needed to be drawn in the sand. I'm with Trump for now and like I said in another thread I hope this isn't a protectionist policy but one that levels the playing field.

From: Grey Ghost
23-Mar-18
"I hope this isn't a protectionist policy but one that levels the playing field."

Well, it's certainly leveling the markets, lately.

Actually, I think everyone may be overreacting a bit. These tariffs only impact about 10% of our imports from China. That's a slap on the wrist. China's response will be interesting.

Matt

From: bigeasygator
23-Mar-18
The losses we’re seeing have much more to do with the market’s expectations on China’s response and where things are likely to go and much less to do with the 10% of Chinese imports Trump is initially targeting. Is it an overreaction? Maybe. Might also be an underreaction, too. Time will tell!

23-Mar-18
I look at the market like gambling...Winning, you love it! Lose a few hands...I hate this game!!!

From: sureshot
23-Mar-18
The status quo was working so well.. . .

From: Tiger-Eye
23-Mar-18
take profits or buy low... depends on your outlook

From: Grey Ghost
23-Mar-18
Another brutal day for the stock markets. Were's Twitter-boy's bragging now, eh?

I guess investors don't care for trillion $$ spending packages any more than they do for tariffs.

Matt

From: Whitey
23-Mar-18
If you use top financial advisors or money managers you make money when the market goes up and when it goes down. March looks the same in 2018 as it did in 2016/17. I know how do do a lot of things and I am a do it yourselves but more importantly I know when not to do them myself.

I also agree with TD . Unless something is done with trade everything you buy goes to a better life for a Chinese kid not an American kid. If you support this country it is in your best interest not to buy anything from China in the near term.

From: Mint
23-Mar-18
Tariffs cost jobs, there is no doubt about that. Europe has a 10% tariff on American cars while we have a 2.5% tariff. China has a 25% Tariff on American cars. Think of how many jobs that is costing us.

From: NvaGvUp
23-Mar-18
China has retaliated to Trump's insanity by installing its own retaliatory tariffs.

Who knew?

Hundreds of thousands of American workers will pay the price in lost jobs and reduced incomes as a result.

Well, done, you moron!

So right on que, there's a trade war and the losers will be consumers and American companies who export goods to China.

Thank you, President Trump, you economically clueless idiot!

From: NvaGvUp
23-Mar-18
JTV,

Only The Witch From Hell is not the problem.

Trump is!

From: Rocky
23-Mar-18
China's retaliation is inconsequential in scope because China knows which side their bread is buttered on. We can damage China economically and China knows it and will NOT go into a full fledged trade war with us. China has grown much too quickly on our backs and they have received the message. They don't need their plants closing 10 at a time. The Tariffs will not last long and will not hold. This is Trump being "Trump the Unpredictable" just the way he likes it, as many here have said they like also. So like it.

I am most disturbed by this spending bill that was passed and SIGNED and was supremely disappointed that he caved because of military spending. Planned Parenthood? ...and the Republicans went for this because of the military. B.S. Selling baby parts for profits is going to go over big with the Evangelicals. Republicans painted themselves into a corner with this one. He should have vetoed this bill and told Democrats to tell the military why they did not get the money to defend this country. Mad Dog Mattis reportedly told the POTUS to sign the bill at all costs. Well he did and the bill is going to come due and he is not going to like the number.

The Rock

From: Grey Ghost
23-Mar-18
I agree, The Rock, Trump just slammed the door on his chances for a second term.

The Matt

23-Mar-18
He was the best thing since sliced bread when the market was up, what happened...LMAO

From: Bentstick81
23-Mar-18
It's Trump. Trump has always took credit for things that he does. He has never changed. FUN FACT, You on the other hand, atheist, have changed 38 times. You run from your life of LIES. Proving, by YOU, that Trump is a saint, compared to you. I have more rope. 8^)))

From: sureshot
23-Mar-18
Kyle, I still chuckle about your posts telling us there was no way Trump could win the Republican nomination much less the presidency.....after all you studied political science........I see you are doubling down.

From: slade
24-Mar-18
The resemblance is uncanny..........

From: TD
24-Mar-18
" Those are completely different issues. Those are LEGAL issues and should be dealt with accordingly. "

Maybe we could issue indictments to the Chinese..... like we did to the Russians...... that should have them shaking in their slippers......

24-Mar-18
I think most who have a level head see this for what it is and why it was done. Only a money hungry fool would over react. Seems like there are a few here that fit that description

From: Rocky
24-Mar-18
"lke",

I am not abandoning Trump. I like his unpredictable gunfighter style, always have always will. He was pressured into signing this mess by his own party and Mad Dog himself given the present and unstable state of international affairs and the depleted military. I also believe this military spending bill was a message to our foes at a critical time. Bringing in John Bolton, a hawk I agree with at this time, seems awfully ironic.

The Rock

From: Whitey
24-Mar-18

Whitey's embedded Photo
Whitey's embedded Photo
who would you say sounds like this guy on this site?

From: Thumper
24-Mar-18
Impossible to loose jobs in the steel industry, they're already HISTORY/GONE. Trump is trying to bring those jobs back and have America make its own steel. He needs to unemploy the EPA first.

From: BC
24-Mar-18
A bad day in the market is going to happen. Great time to buy in.

From: Bonafide
24-Mar-18
The wall money is in the military budget, Pres Trump made the left fund their own demise. Since it was an Omnibus bill, not a budget, the funds can be diverted to the important stuff, like a wall on the border, etc.

From: TD
26-Mar-18

TD's Link
Trade talks with China over the weekend......

"U.S. Stock Market Rebounds On Report Of Trade Talks With China" Up some 300 points I thought I heard driving to work this morning.

Looks like the Tarrifs greased the skids a bit...... we shall see.

From: slade
26-Mar-18
The but-hurt never right loses again...........

Trump’s Tough Talk On China Works : China’s Premier Pledges Opening Market To Avert Trade War

From: Seapig@work
26-Mar-18

Seapig@work's embedded Photo
Seapig@work's embedded Photo
Dang. Slade beat me to it.

So, I'll just leave this image.

26-Mar-18
It’s a bubble, a bubble I tell you...Lol

From: HDE
26-Mar-18
Need coal to make steel as well...

26-Mar-18
I though I'd TTT this thing for everyone's viewing pleasure. You are on a streak Kyle. You keep this up and they might let you teach Business Math in your local High School.

From: Thumper
27-Mar-18
Stock Market has rebounded and the Nations largest steel producer here in Baytown Tx announced today they're hiring 500 new employees. Granted there just $65k a year blue color jobs but its a good start. These are real jobs that make a product the country needs to build schools, highways, ships, planes. Not 500 people that just holds some paper expecting to keep getting richer.

From: Thumper
27-Mar-18
No, I'm on the other side of Houston about the same distance near Field Store. When I worked in construction in the 70's and 80's I worked on several expansions of the steel mill there in Baytown.

From: Shuteye
27-Mar-18
Every major country in the world has tariffs. China is now scrambling to avoid a trade war. Great move by Trump and the USA will benefit greatly.

From: Amoebus
02-Apr-18
China has a strange way of scrambling to avoid a trade war.

"Trade war escalates as China says it will impose tariffs on 128 U.S. exports, including pork and fruit".

From: HDE
02-Apr-18
Almost sounds like China is grasping at straws to try and have an impact...

From: bigeasygator
02-Apr-18
“Almost sounds like China is grasping at straws to try and have an impact...”

That’s clearly not the market’s read on China’s response today.

From: HDE
02-Apr-18
BEG -

How have you arrived at the point in your career today by only reading half of something?

From: Will
02-Apr-18
Amazing how globalized this stuff is - That's wild Pig Doc that Smithfield is a Chinese owned company!

JTV I was floored that President Trump had hit 50%, looked at Gallup http://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx and they still had him at 39% as of Saturday.

It will be interesting to see how all of this plays out for sure.

From: bigeasygator
02-Apr-18
Never said it was based on one issue. Clearly issues in tech are dragging things down as well. But if you think the Chinese response is doing anything other than weighing on the markets, well, I’ve got a bridge in Brooklyn to sell you...

From: TD
02-Apr-18
Even NPR this morning said the new Chinese tariffs are not even in the slap on the hand retaliation. Tariffs on dried coconut..... they currently have FAR more stringent tariffs on things such as US autos (25% if I recall) long prior to "Trump's Trade War" and nobody seemed to care about any of it then.....

Suddenly now it's skirts over the head time with folks running in circles screaming.....

As was stated earlier. EVERY country has tariffs or restrictions/ regulations on some imports. Every one. (restrictions/regs are sometimes harder on imports than tariffs) Time to time some renegotiation is necessary. Hard to negotiate when you're tied over that proverbial barrel......

There will be more talks.

From: bigeasygator
02-Apr-18
"There will be more talks."

Or...you know, there won't. And there will just be more tariffs. Time will tell. The market isn't putting too much confidence in "renegotiation" as of now - it's putting more confidence in a trade war. If there was optimism, it would show up. Fear and uncertainty are dragging the market down. Doesn't mean we don't ultimately get a better deal with China (aka, more access to their markets, less IP theft, etc) - just that the market is skeptical we will. Nor does this mean that the market isn't going to go back up (it will).

From: Beendare
02-Apr-18
Is it fair for Germany to impose a 25% tariff on an American made car going into Germany when we only impose 10% coming here?

I dunno about the different tariffs between us and China but TD nailed it on China's intellectual property infringements. How do you crack down on that without bringing tariffs into the conversation?

My take; Trump is playing the long game letting the Chinese know we are serious. Remember what we had for the previous admin; Hollow threats, soft policy

Trump is starting tough.....good negotiating tactic.

From: NvaGvUp
02-Apr-18
Totally predictably, today China responded to Trump's tariffs by imposing tens of billions of dollars on 128 different products the US exports to China.

How many thousands of American jobs will be lost because of China's response to Trump's Populist financial stupidity?

From: NvaGvUp
02-Apr-18
Also predictably, as a result of China's response to Trump's idiocy, the markets got slaughtered today.

Again.

02-Apr-18
Your beloved investments will recover. Give the man some room to steer this in favor of the american economy. Not continually whine about your day to day returns. Give it a break and see where it goes before you start your "Bash Trump game".

From: sureshot
02-Apr-18
"Totally predictably, today China responded to Trump's tariffs by imposing tens of billions of dollars on 128 different products the US exports to China."

Kyle, Are you drinking again?

From: NvaGvUp
02-Apr-18
sureshot,

Exactly what did I just post that is not 100% accurate?

From: sureshot
02-Apr-18
"Totally predictably, today China responded to Trump's tariffs by imposing tens of billions of dollars on 128 different products the US exports to China."

China imposed tariffs on about 3 billion dollars of imports.....not imposed tens of billions......you think a financial guru would understand the difference.

From: NvaGvUp
02-Apr-18
Hey, sureshit,

Tens of billions by one report, three billion by another.

Either way, American workers and the American economy lose.

Stop blindly worshiping your God while refusing to recognize his failings.

FWIW, the 'Tens of Millions' was just from what was reported today. On just one day last week there was another, separate report of 1.5 BILLION in Chinese tariffs. More reports added even more.

GEEZE!

From: bigeasygator
02-Apr-18
Someone on CNBC today was making the point that this was just the response to the steel and aluminum tariffs and that China’s response to the more significant IP theft related tariffs are to come later.

From: sureshot
02-Apr-18
Kyle, while you lower yourself once again to name calling....and since you already admit that one source says China imposed tariffs on 3 billion dollars of imports... . .why don't you provide us a link for the source you claim says tens of billions. Of course, finish your drink first.

02-Apr-18
rise in Dow Jones Industrial Average from presidential inauguration to first market day of April the following year: --Obama: 37% --Trump: 19%

Trump IS the reason the market is tanking. His trade bluster, attacking individual companies and tax cuts that don’t help the consumers are destroying investor confidence.

Trump rode Obama's economy throughout his first year.

Now that he's setting his own policies, passing tariffs and attacking American businesses, the stock market has plummeted.

When his Presidency ends, remember these words as you look at your depleted 401k:

"Thanks, Trump."

From: bigeasygator
02-Apr-18
In other words, these $3bln of tariffs on our exports to them was their response to the tariffs we slapped on about $1bln worth of steel that they export to us. Wonder what their response is going to be to the tariffs on the remainder of the $50-60 bln of imports from China Trump is targeting...

02-Apr-18
Kyle and BEG, before you regurgitate about the markets, how about post a link with the listed exports that will have the tariffs applied to them. You might find that many of those thousands of jobs aren't being completed by Americans. Produce and many agriculture commodities are produced by illegal and seasonal workers. It would be interesting to see what else you are jumping the gun about by simply regurgitating what isn't best for your income.

The topic isn't market's BEG. It is will this hurt the average american in the long run. Why any human would tie up a lifetime of money investment based solely on what American trade policy does, is beyond me

From: bigeasygator
02-Apr-18

bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
If tariffs stay, they will hurt the average American in the long run. Period. Tell me how the supply/demand curve above is wrong. The more you post on these, the more you show a lack of fundamental understanding on what tariffs do to the economy. Tariffs are taxes. The consumer (aka the average American) always loses. Period. There’s no two ways about it. The only debate is how much they will lose.

02-Apr-18
No one but you and Kyle keep insisting they are going to stay for the long run.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
How long they gonna stay then?

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18

bigeasygator's Link
Cato Institute - Trump’s Tariff Fight: Why American Households Will Be the Losers

From: sureshot
03-Apr-18
big easy, The short game is what got this country into the position we are today. Free trade is great, if it is reciprocal, for far too long it has not been.

Kyle, You should be able to get that link posted this morning, hopefully before you start drinking again.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
No, it doesn’t ignore the big picture, Pig Doc. Apparently far too many people don’t understand Econ 101z Free trade is great. Period. If your goal is to grow the economy, create jobs, and benefit the American consumer, the answer is not more restrictive trade practices. I have no faith in protectionist measures as a gateway to negotiations to leading to more free trade. You want to level the playing field, throw out a carrot, not a stick.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
“I'm all for negotiation and that is what Trump is doing”

Negotiations don’t work when only one side comes to the table. And I’ll take free trade over “fair” trade any day. Fair trade is a construct of politicians, not economics.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
“When it is not equal in terms of procedures and restrictions it is not fair, and it is not free”

Nobody is saying perfectly free trade exists. What people are saying is that restrictive policies that move away from free trade are not the answer. And people like me are skeptical that they will result in some kind of deal that results in more free trade. Haven’t seen anything that suggests negotiations are ongoing with everyone at the table. If that’s so I don’t see how we ended up with tariffs on $3bln worth of our exports in response to the tariffs on $1bln worth of Chinese steel we import. Sure doesn’t sound like MAGA to me.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
Lol right. Free trade and anti-protectionism - the rallying cry of the fake Libertarian (whatever that means).

From: Grey Ghost
03-Apr-18
"Regardless, you are ignoring the fact that this country has been forced to play on a very uneven playing field,..."

Exactly who "forced" America to seek China's cheap labor force and products, thereby risking the theft of our technological ideas?

Matt

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
I’m neither, Trax. Just a guy who understands economics and who has a pretty good sense of how the Chinese will respond.

Matt, it’s a valiant effort but you’re up against individuals who operate under the mindset that we derive no economic benefit from cheap Chinese labor and cheap Chinese products and we’re somehow losing because we have a trade deficit. Hell, even forced technology transfers and IP theft carry with them economic benefits. There isn’t a company in the world that doesn’t understand the risk of doing business in China.

From: Grey Ghost
03-Apr-18
"Business has left this country for cheap labor and more so for lower taxes and less regulation."

That sounds more like free market decisions than being "forced to play on an uneven playing field", to me.

Matt

From: Grey Ghost
03-Apr-18
Nobody "forced" US companies to do business in China. The truth is we import over $500 billion from China, and only export $130 billion. Tariffs aren't magically going to change that imbalance.

Matt

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
"It is an uneven playing field when we are not even allowed to play in certain segments of the Chinese economy such as their financial segments, yet they have free reign here"

One, no, they don't have "free reign" here. Nobody has free reign. That said...so what. You don't think the American consumer benefits from China's access to our financial markets?? The individuals who are being hurt most by China's restrictive policies are the Chinese people, not the "average American." Same with Chinese tariffs on US goods. When we go down the path of protectionism, there's only one outcome for the average American - they lose. You're choosing "an even playing field" and trade reciprocity at the expense of American jobs, American wages, and economic growth. You don't think you are because you think this all is going to somehow result in all these tariffs being rolled back and the nice folks in China seeing the evil in their ways and deciding to open up their markets to us and punishing all those bad Chinese companies that steal IP and steal technology. And you think I'm the blind one with my head in the sand lol

From: HDE
03-Apr-18
Didn't I read earlier on that a tarriff was a tax...?

From: Grey Ghost
03-Apr-18

Grey Ghost's Link
Funny you mention ethanol, Pig Doc, since it's one of the products the Chinese have put an extra 15% tariff on in retaliation to Trump's tariffs. That's in addition to the 30% duty they already charge. That will effectively cut off US exports of 600,000 barrels of ethanol to China.

Matt

From: Grey Ghost
03-Apr-18
Meanwhile, while all the economic gurus here are yammering about "negotiations", China enacted tariffs on 128 US products, worth 3 billion, in retaliation, yesterday.

Matt

From: TD
03-Apr-18
Geez..... some of you folks almost have me rooting for the markets to head even further south..... you're not looking through binos down the road, the only thing some folks have gotten out is their mirror..... you don't want anything to upset YOUR apple cart. Screw the orchard.

It has not been "free" nor "fair" trade with the Chinese for some time. That's a fact. Something needs to be done...... fresh out of carrots, they have really never worked with them anyway. A great deal of the real world sees Obama like conciliation and concession and laugh at the perceived weakness..... weakness not only being shown, but in some cases celebrated.

Apparently some are not used to doing business and dealing with lawless criminals. There are no rules out there but those that we can enforce. Can't call the cops even when they have been caught stealing from you. In fact they have bought and paid for most of them. Nobody is going to do anything if you don't do it yourself.

The rules are meaningless if WE can do nothing to enforce them. That in and of itself is confrontational in nature, not conciliatory. Again, that's why it's called a trade WAR. It is done because the treaties and contracts either need to be changed and the others won't come to the table to renegotiate.... or those who are boldly breaking them need to be reined in.

Like wars they go on as long as they need to. And stuff gets broken and blown up along the way. Oxen get gored to. Until one side or both decide it's not worth it and come to the table. It is not meant to be a normally operating or continual economic system. Just as war is not the preferred normal state between countries.

Wasn't that long ago we were pulling the Chinese butts out of the Japanese fire. Turned a good section of a couple of Japanese cities into glass. Now we are fairly close allies in the world with them (might be said we are protectors of the Japanese from China now). Same with Germany. Both were worth fighting, killing, destroying at the time. But it was not the normal peacetime state between us that it has become. For now.....

From: buckhammer
03-Apr-18
As long as the leadership in the White House is unstable the stock market will also be unstable.

03-Apr-18
bigeasygator and others - the infographic you posted represents an incomplete model. first - i want to be clear i don't have any answers here - but i do think it is a mistake for people on both sides to get so fired up.

i said this on the other thread, but i'll say it again here since everyone is still ranting.

the other side of that infographic is the assumption that specialization of production will be good for all, because those whose jobs are moved over seas will 1) have the ability (ie intelligence etc.) to get better jobs, and 2) training will be available to insure that people can get better jobs.

in reality, #1 just isn't true and #2 just hasn't happened.

the infographic fails to capture the fact that because #1 isn't true and #2 hasn't happened, there are hundreds of thousands of working age people in middle america who are sitting around popping opiates or doing meth because they don't have anything better to do. these social costs are very real, but they are not captured by classical economic theory on specialization and trade.

i am by no means an expert here, but it seems likely to me that in the future 1) people will live longer, and thus hold on to their jobs longer (meaning fewer new openings for people) and 2) more and more jobs will be automated meaning that combined there will be fewer and fewer jobs, and thus the jobs that remain will be more and more valuable.

Silicon valley and other libs think that the answer to this is "Universal Basic Income" or UBI, where everyone gets a check just for waking up in the morning.

I am of the view that this will not work.

Most people need a job of sorts to build their sense of self worth. I believe that simply waking up in the morning and getting a check w/ no opportunity to get a job will lead to wide spread depression, and increased social costs such as drug abuse.

Again, i do not have the answers here, but i think it is at least worth considering that tariffs may provide an answer. NVA and others are correct that in the near term tariffs and trade wars may cost jobs b/c tariffs lead to higher prices, and thus less demand, less revenue, and less ability for companies to pay their people, but in the intermediate and long term, the demand curve will adjust to the new pricing reality, those jobs will come back, and additional jobs will theoretically come back in the industries that have been re-domesticated through tariffs.

all in all, it is a much more complicated issue than what you read in the headlines, and there is potentially some logic behind the idea of tariffs.

as far as the stock market goes, as always it is best to ignore the day to day moves. To quote Warren Buffett, "In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497."

if you are 5 years or less away from retirement, you should probably be reducing your exposure to stocks. If you have a longer term, you should be ignoring them, except to buy when they are on sale. They will go up and they will go down, and in the long run you will be happy to own them.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
"Again, i do not have the answers here, but i think it is at least worth considering that tariffs may provide an answer."

That is a thoughtful response, Laughingwater. I'm in the camp that I'd prefer for the market to pick the winners and losers, not the government (I'd be happy if we rolled back all the tariffs, Pig Doc, even those which would benefit my industry). Sure, there are societal costs when industries and jobs are phased out. This is a byproduct of being an economic loser. And I'm sorry, but if we're going to decide to subsidize individuals, it's far more efficient to cut them a pay check than to prop up uneconomic industries with uneconomic jobs. Give people the means to move into areas and take jobs that the market actually wants.

Nothing about tariffs will push the demand curve to the right and there are no guarantees that demand will ever shift to the right in the intermediate or long term if tariffs remain in effect.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18

bigeasygator's Link
China says it will respond to any new trade tariffs by the United States with measures of the same scale and intensity.

The warning from China's ambassador to the United States, Cui Tiankai, came after Beijing slapped tariffs on $3 billion worth of US exports including fruit, pork and steel pipes.

Those measures were in response to President Donald Trump's tariffs on steel and aluminum from China and other countries. But Trump has also announced plans to impose tariffs on about $50 billion worth of Chinese goods.

The new US measures are still taking shape. The Trump administration hasn't yet announced which specific Chinese products will be hit and is planning to take public comments for a period of weeks before putting the tariffs into effect.

When that happens, "we will certainly take countermeasures of the same proportion and of the same scale, same intensity," Cui said in an interview with China's state-run English news channel CGTN that aired Tuesday in Asia.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
No, I just prefer policy whereby we don’t screw ourselves. You seem to not care, or at least seem to be far more optimistic that China is going to capitulate. If they don’t, and all we get are more tariffs, we just lose more. For this to be an economic win long term it means we’ll need to end up with a situation that has less restrictions and less tariffs than we did two months ago. We shouldn’t penalize ourselves because China doesn’t want to play “fair.”

03-Apr-18
What's the answer then BEG? Just keep kicking the same old stones down the same old road. Tell us how to fix this then since the first man trying in a long time, seems to be too dumb to satisfy you. Give it to us Mastermind.

From: bigeasygator
03-Apr-18
Depends what you are trying to “fix.” If it’s IP theft you’re concerned about, the World Trade Organization exists for a reason and has some authority in this area. To me that’s worth testing before diving off the cliff of unilateral trade action. If by “fix” you mean create American jobs and generally grow the American economy, slapping taxes on a wide range of goods we buy isn’t the answer.

Trump was bragging about $250 bln in deals (that he likely had little to do with) with China on his return from his Asia trip. Regardless of how much influence he had on making them happen (if they even will now), there are things he can do to incentivize similar deals. Again, I’d much rather the President test that path before going down the protectionist path.

I’m not guaranteeing any of that will work. But I’ll guarantee they won’t hurt our economy over any timeframe and they won’t leave us off worse economically from when we started.

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18

bigeasygator's Link
China fires back, announcing tariffs on US planes, cars and soybeans.

The Chinese Ministry of Commerce on Wednesday said it plans to impose a 25% tariff on $50 billion worth of US exports. The 106 affected products will also include soybeans and chemicals.

...

It's a long-standing issue that US business executives and government officials have complained about, including practices like pressuring companies to hand over trade secrets in exchange for access to China's huge markets. But Chinese government officials dismissed the allegations on Wednesday. Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen said claims China had forced companies to share closely guarded technology were "fake news," insisting all such deals were mutually agreed upon by businesses.

From: Grey Ghost
04-Apr-18
"China has been extorting us for some time. "

Pure nonsense from the anonymous coward. Extortion is obtaining something thru force or threats. US companies were never forced or threatened into doing business with China. If you choose to play the game, you can't complain about the rules afterwards.

How about this? US companies figure out a way to produce products, here, that people desire at a price point that is competitive with the rest of the world. That's truly the only way to correct a trade imbalance.

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
04-Apr-18
Headline of the Day:

"China Threatens tariffs on $50B of U.S. Goods"

That would be 'tens of billions,' would it not?

From: HDE
04-Apr-18
The cost of labor in the US is too high to make very many domestic products AND be competitive with the rest of the world for that same product. The reason why the US imports so many of these kinds of things is because the countries that produce them are good at providing the one thing that keeps cost down, cheap labor. A low domestic produced price requires a reduction in cost. The first will be labor or wage.

"Buy American" in today's global economy may do more harm in certain avenues than many realize.

From: sureshot
04-Apr-18
Kyle, you are so predictable.....did you have a headache yesterday?

From: Rocky
04-Apr-18
Let me get this straight. The country that possesses the most varied natural resources in the world can't compete with those nations who must import these resources and then must compete on the world stage with those of whom they originally imported to make the same product? If the resources are here and can be purchased below market should that not off set labor and wage costs to be competitive? How much more of an edge would be required? The answer will reveal the problem but who wants to face that reality? This is where it has landed us. You can't have your cake and eat it to. So......trade war. Much better than the American worker taking a hit and possibly giving up one of his 5 big screens TV'S in his man cave I guess.

The Rock

04-Apr-18
It’s not the guy w 5 TVs taking the hit. It’s the farmer, the hourly steel worker and the delivery drivers taking the hit. The Dow will fall 1000 pts today because of the genius of trump.

Since Jan. 26th Dow Jones has fallen 3,000 points thanks to Donald Trump and his trade wars. This has wiped out $3 trillion in stock market value. You wouldn’t know if you’ve been watching Fox News. Could you imagine the headlines had this happened under Obama.

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18
Curious PD, which "page" are the farmers on?...

...

Brian Duncan, an Illinois hog farmer, had hoped the tough trade talk in recent weeks between President Donald Trump and China amounted to saber-rattling.

On Monday, he discovered otherwise, when the Chinese government imposed tariffs on 128 U.S. products, including pork and various fruits, in retaliation for Trump’s previously announced tariffs on steel and aluminum.

“We were hoping it was just brinkmanship and cooler heads would prevail. But instead, some of our worst fears seem to be coming true,” said Duncan, who’s also vice president of the Illinois Farm Bureau. “This is significant, real and serious for rural America.”

...

“I’m very concerned,” says John Heisdorffer, a soybean producer from Iowa and president of the American Soybean Association. “If we lose trade to China, our neighbors to the south will be glad to take up that trade.”

....

American Soybean Association President John Heisdorffer, an Iowa soy grower, said in a news release, “The tariffs announced today by the administration will put the interests of other domestic industries over farmers. Prior to today’s announcement, China has indicated that it may retaliate against U.S. soybean imports, which would be devastating to U.S. soy growers. Our competitors in Brazil and Argentina are all too happy to pick up supplying the Chinese market.”

From: HDE
04-Apr-18
"If the resources are here and can be purchased below market should that not off set labor and wage costs to be competitive?"

Not sure there are that many people willing to give up quality of life so someone else can save a buck on a domestically produced widget. Price to extract or harness domestic resources ain't cheap either.

After all, Profit = Revenue - Cost

From: Bowbender
04-Apr-18
Wait. What? An anonymous poster calling a long time Bowsiter a pedophile because he has differing views on what tariffs accomplish and global market competition. As much as I disagreed with GJ, Mark Hogan, Catfish, Blue Doggie and others....never would have crossed my mind to accuse them of anything like that.

'Course I was raised not to be a dick, and pretty much in general, take ownership for my words and actions. And not hide behind mommies skirt....aka a keyboard.

From: Mint
04-Apr-18

Mint's Link
Attached is an article from 2016 showing how China is cheating on our trade deal.

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18
"BEG, I already addressed the pork tariffs in a previous post. It's a minor issue. Try to keep up."

And soybeans? Actually, you're sidestepping the question. I'd be willing to bet that the agricultural interests in this country aren't really cool with being a pawn in this escalating trade war and would prefer their products not be subjected to tariffs -- aka, on the same page as me. Either you think differently or you also think that's a laughing matter that they share my opinion apparently.

From: Mint
04-Apr-18
I'm not to worried about the farm interests since we are getting screwed on the ethanol/corn subsidy and the farm aid they receive.

From: HDE
04-Apr-18
"If we are going to grow the economy in the US all of us may have to sacrifice a little. Maybe pay a little more for products because they cost more to make here."

I agree, don't complain about price from domestic products and then talk bad about products made overseas. Eventually, the economic lifeblood of circulation will go full circle and long term you will have economic equilibrium.

From: Shuteye
04-Apr-18
The alternative to @realDonaldTrump’s hard line w/trade cheaters is what exactly? Turn our entire tech sector to China? Allow every US steel co. to go out of business?

From: TD
04-Apr-18
They already have a 25% tariff on autos...... they're going to put another 25% on?

Of course they are going to threaten more tariffs. You think they'll just roll over and say "OK, ya got us...."?

If you folks are mostly worried about the stock market..... one of the things that have been floated rather than tariffs is barring China from our financial systems, banks, stock market. What would that move do to your stocks?

From: Shuteye
04-Apr-18
"Anyone complaining about the imposition of tariffs on countries systematically and brazenly cheating in trade deals for decades, shouldn’t be taken seriously. We should never have allowed this to continue as long as it did with China." Finally a president that stands up for the USA.

From: Rocky
04-Apr-18
PIG, Dead Bang. All I hear in this country is the word FEAR. Take a moment and think about it. You can't say or offer your opinion out of fear of................fill in the blanks. Trade wars, blacks, illegals, women orgs. LGBT , unions etc. What the fuq is going on here?

How did we get to the point that these trade wars have surfaced? How? I will tell you how. America can no longer pay her own greedy bills surviving as a paper tiger and the world, especially the Chinese know it. The POTUS that is attempting to reverse that trend is vilified because the people are AFRAID of the consequences if we slight China or anyone else on every front.

Here we go again FEAR.

HDE,

Don't bet on the "economic equilibrium" thing. The weight of social, worldwide costs and programs have ground America to halt, a weight America can no longer afford. Weight. It can stop a train and this train pulled into the station long ago.

The Rock

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18
“If we are going to grow the economy in the US all of us may have to sacrifice a little. Maybe pay a little more for products because they cost more to make here. It's a small price to pay vs. continuing to live with a massive trade deficit and companies leaving the US.“

And you wonder why I keep bringing up the fact that people don’t understand basic economic principles. You don’t grow the economy by giving consumers less for the dollars they spend. This is a tax. Taxes don’t grow economies.

And why do people care about a trade deficit? I don’t understand it. In periods of strong economic growth our trade deficit has always gone up. Trade surpluses come with recessions. Trade balance is not an indication of who is winning and who is losing - it is a reflection of how we are investing and how we are saving. If we are buying more goods and services from the rest of the world than we are selling, then we must also be selling more assets to the rest of the world than we are buying. In short, our trade deficit results in a capital surplus which allows us to consume more goods and services than we produce. It is not an economically bad thing in any shape, form, or fashion.

And there are lots of alternatives, Shuteye. I prefer the ones that don’t add costs to the products we buy and sell.

From: HDE
04-Apr-18
Yes Rock, an equilibrium always happens, eventually. The equilibrium of which I speak is at some point in time the sticker shock wears off and life is back to normal. We do this all the time as a result of the CPI.

Remember when you could go to the movies with a quarter or less even? Now an average ticket will run you somewhere in the neighborhood of $10 and most people pay without a second thought.

Why? Wages have increased. Printing money, on the other hand, for the sake of it is a separate issue.

From: 'Ike'
04-Apr-18
Wait, I just read somewhere, this was his (Trump) plan and that'll hopefully work...LMAO!

From: Michael
04-Apr-18
I am curious if Argentina starts selling soybeans to China then who looses out on Argentina’s soybeans?

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18
The economic losers in that scenario are the Chinese people who have to now pay more for soybeans and the American producers who lost their share of the market.

From: Rocky
04-Apr-18
HDE,

Explain normal when we are living in extraordinary times, abnormal to say the least, that has negated our power and integrity by the last administration. Never take anything for granted save a headstone. One reason America is immersed in these turbulent times.

The Rock

From: Michael
04-Apr-18

Michael's embedded Photo
Michael's embedded Photo
Here is today’s Soybean market.

I am curious where it will sit 2 months from now when planting season is wrapping up along with possible 2 months of tariffs under its belt.

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18

bigeasygator's embedded Photo
bigeasygator's embedded Photo
Actually I can see pretty far, but thanks for your concern. So you’re asking why competition and low prices are good for the economy? I think you know the answer to that question.

And no, you don’t grow the economy by creating jobs. Jobs are an outcome of growing the economy, not vice versa. Creating jobs before growth is putting the cart before the horse. Find me a time in the history of our country when job growth preceded GDP growth. Here’s the last 30 years.

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18
“You haven't answered my question yet. Explain to me how making steel in China is better for our economy than making steel here.”

Again, you shrug off this Econ 101 stuff but if you’re asking this question you clearly need a refresher on deadweight loss. Making steel here, and not in China, results in deadweight loss. It’s a market inefficiency. It’s a misallocation and suboptimal use of resources (economically speaking). Tariffs, quotas, subsidies, taxes, limiting competition...all equals deadweight loss. Economically there’s no debate. Allowing Chinese steel to compete benefits our economy. If we want to move those jobs back over here, it’s an economic loser. You can argue how much it’ll be a loser and say it won’t be that much (we don’t get much steel from China directly, prices won’t rise all that much, etc) - but economically it’s still a loser. Trumps not playing economics, he’s playing politics.

Deadweight Loss:

Definition: It is the loss of economic efficiency in terms of utility for consumers/producers such that the optimal or allocative efficiency is not achieved.

Description: Deadweight loss can be stated as the loss of total welfare or the social surplus due to reasons like taxes or subsidies, price ceilings or floors, externalities and monopoly pricing. It is the excess burden created due to loss of benefit to the participants in trade which are individuals as consumers, producers or the government.

Example: if a certain tax is imposed on the producer for each unit of the good he sells, it is likely that the new equilibrium price that is settled for the transaction will be higher and therefore some burden of this will be passed on to the consumer.

This will lead to reduced trade from both sides. The loss of welfare attributed to the shift from earlier to this less efficient market mechanism is called the deadweight loss of taxation. This leads to wastage or underutilization of resources due to inefficient market outcomes.

So

From: Michael
04-Apr-18
Pig Doc, I had the country wrong my mistake. However I thought there was a surplus of corn and beans right now.

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18
No, I just have a basic understanding of economics which seem to be lacking around here. What I will say is that Gary Johnson would have brought tax reform and deregulation without this side dish of protectionist garbage that’s working against the positive economic steps we’ve taken as a country.

From: bigeasygator
04-Apr-18

bigeasygator's Link
Don’t want to listen to me, listen to the economists.

“But the core issue remains: Making life too easy for U.S. firms will make life worse, not better, for anyone who participates in the U.S. economy. Many economists believe this, as do leaders in the business community. One example comes to mind: As the CEO of The Trump Organization and its many holdings, Trump doesn’t appear to have made any special attempt to use U.S. suppliers or to hire American workers. To the contrary, when a cheaper foreign option was available to make Trump ties or build Trump Tower, like a savvy businessman, Trump seized it. But as chief executive of the U.S. government, Trump’s ideas about how to pick suppliers are different. What’s changed is that now, he’s not looking to his own bottom line, but at his poll numbers.”

From: TGbow
04-Apr-18
No, I just have a basic understanding of economics which seem to be lacking around here. What I will say is that Gary Johnson would have brought tax reform and deregulation without this side dish of protectionist garbage that’s working against the positive economic steps we’ve taken as a country. By Bigeasygator.

Dont know if Gary could have done it or not but I am all for the idea.

I don't see how buying steel from China can be a good thing.

We are so strangled with taxes and regs in this country it aint funny.

One thing is for sure DC dont want a Libertarian to win.

05-Apr-18

LaughingWater's Link
A thoughtful commentary from someone who is way smarter than me, more thoughtful than most, and less biased than economists who make the career in academia and risk career suicide by not toeing the liberal line.

again, i don't have a strong view here one way or the other, but i think everyone on both sides should be more thoughtful and acknowledge the debate is way bigger with way more variables than something that can be hashed out on a hunting message board.

From: HDE
05-Apr-18
"He failed running a second rate state..."

Ouch - talk about a paper cut with lemon juice poured on it. But then again, that's what happens when the state legislature is ran by a bunch of good 'ol boy democrats.

From: bigeasygator
05-Apr-18
"1.The last 4 presidents create horrible, debilitating, lopsided trade deals with other country..."

Tell me specifically what deals the last four President's "created" that are horrible, debilitating and lopsided. How are you even defining "horrible, debilitating, and lopsided?"

"2. Trump starts tackling the horrible situation by trying to bring balance back to the situation..."

No, he starts tackling the situation by making things worse. Whether this is just a negotiating tactic or these things stick or not remains to be seen. China isn't dumb and they've showed their already more than happy to take protectionist measures that work to the detriment of their people. Trump is stubborn and doesn't like to "lose." So call me pessimistic that negotiations are going to both 1) roll back these tariffs that have gone into place (steel, aluminum) and are being threatened (the other $50 bln) and 2) roll back other "unfair" trade practices (IP theft, technology transfers, etc).

Laughingwater, no one is complaining about Trump's diagnosis. It's his remedy that has people concerned. Dimon is saying this too...

"Recently, the United States threatened unilateral action against China. Of course, anything that starts to resemble a trade war creates risk and uncertainty to the global economic system," Dimon said. "One of the administration's best arguments is that negotiation alone has not worked."

Consequently, Dimon proposed a five-pronged approach for the U.S.: to define clearly what it wants from China, to set up a timeline for China to meet demands, to listen to China's complaints, to take any action in partnership with its allies, primarily in Europe and Japan, and, finally to "revisit" the Trans-Pacific Partnership and "fix the parts considered unfair.

Dimon acknowledged that the trade negotiations are creating uncertainty and could lead to "negative outcomes."

You can enact Dimon's proposed plan without the unilateral action.

From: HDE
05-Apr-18
A Freshman level approach to this (Econ 101) is for high level discussion, just the basics. At a MINIMUM, to fully have a meaningful dialog, you need to do a Junior level Global Econ approach with some upper level Micro/Macro thrown in there...

05-Apr-18
HDE, pig doc, and LAUGHINGWATER nailed it.

05-Apr-18

your favorite poster's embedded Photo
your favorite poster's embedded Photo
Trump has instructed the United States Trade Representative to consider $100 billion of additional tariffs on China, "in light of China's unfair retaliation."

I wonder if any of those advising trump on trade have pointed out the US would be far stronger negotiating w China if it had joined TPP and was confronting China w Japan and 10 others who, with US, constitute 40% of global economy and over 50% of Chinese economy. They wouldve negotiated within a day. Nope, trump only listens to trump. Dumb ass. We are a rudderless Government. No leadership. No intelligence, no meeting of minds to promote protect our Country. Irresponsibility and greed have replaced common sense and intellect.

From: bigeasygator
05-Apr-18
I’ve had all those too, HDE. Tariffs and trade wars still suck. Find me an economist besides Peter Navarro who thinks what Trump is doing is good regarding trade. Again, too many people want to play politics instead of playing economics.

From: jjs
05-Apr-18
Buckiller x1, easy to throw stones when one doesn't do their own research on how we got to this place with China and it will take some pain to make it right. Clinton,Bush and Obama just gave China the key to house to come in and take what they wanted without any repercussions, the rare earth elements is a good example that will hurt us bad if not corrected.

From: Bentstick81
05-Apr-18
You are right atheist. Eight years of obama isn't going to be good for America to try and over come. 8^)

05-Apr-18
"....We are a rudderless Government. No leadership. No intelligence, no meeting of minds to promote protect our Country. Irresponsibility and greed have replaced common sense and intellect."

That was the dumbest 4 sentences in the whole post.

06-Apr-18
Well you know what they say about opinions; they’re like buttholes, everyone’s got one but some stink more than others.

Take that as you wish.

From: HDE
06-Apr-18
BEG, unfortunately we live in a political economy these days. Gov't does it with tariffs, private enterprise does it with price wars and monopolistic competition...

The illustration used shows why the knee jerk rxn [of the market] happens with a tariff.

06-Apr-18
630 points

TRUMPS STOCK MARKET RULES: 1=always take credit 2=never take blame

From: Bullshooter
06-Apr-18
It is truly amazing that a p**sy-grabbing, porn star dating, draft dodging, con artist is considered a hero by conservatives. So much so, that if anyone dares to take issue with his actions or statements, they are reduced to calling him "liberal" or yelling "Fake News!"

If it turns out Mueller finds evidence of collusion with Russia, what will you say? Fake news? So what, everyone cheats? Russia is not an enemy? Just curious.

Dow dropped >550 points today. Pretty clear due to Trump's tariff stunt.

From: Michael
06-Apr-18
You got to be kidding me Bullshooter. You really think Mueller is going to find collusion on Trump with Russia? I got some ocean front property I will sell you in Az if you do.

Oh and Soybeans finished up for the 2nd strait day.

From: Bullshooter
06-Apr-18
It’s possible. Never said Mueller would but what if he does? Will all the Trumpers on here deny it or pretend it means nothing?

I think we are up to 8 or so in the Trump campaign/family who met with Russians and denied it. Why deny it? There could be something there, we’ll see. There is still plenty of time to think up reasons it is all a liberal conspiracy.

06-Apr-18
Man, the only thing worse in life then being a person glued to the stock market, would be a person that was surrounded by the hate driven, Russian collusion theory. Pathetic is the first word that comes to my mind.

From: tonyo6302
07-Apr-18

tonyo6302's Link
Here is another thing holding wages down, added to the cheap overseas labor.

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.. .. .

Pig Doc will like this one . . . . . .

"ICE raids meatpacking plant in Tennessee; 97 immigrants arrested"

Article at the link.

From: Amoebus
07-Apr-18
"BWAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAJAHGAHAJAHAJAHAHAAAA!!"

Was there a fart and a burp in there?

From: Bullshooter
07-Apr-18

Bullshooter's Link
My feelings are not hurt, that is ridiculous, but understandable since all you have left is denial. The Wall Street Journal is a conservative newspaper. Read em and weep. There is still time to come to the understanding that you have been taken in by a con artist, many have. Your supposedly conservative prez had a major makeover after a lifetime of being pro-choice, cozying up to the Clintons, etc.

Yet some of you even try to paint Robert Mueller as a liberal. Wow. Instead of claiming bone spurs to dodge the draft like Trump did, he served with distinction in Vietnam, receiving the Bronze Star, two Navy Commendation Medals, the Purple Heart and the Vietnamese Cross of Gallantry as an officer in the Marine Corps. Was appointed by George W. Bush to lead the FBI. Google it.

Read a little, you might figure out you have been duped by a fake. All you have left is to cry "butt-hurt" "snowflake", "liberal" etc. when many actual conservatives can see through a New York playboy reality TV star.

From: Beendare
07-Apr-18
Buckkiller nailed it.

So do we just kick the can down the road like Obama did for 8 years?

We are going to see some short term pain...for improved long term trade and Patent infringement policy.

Unfortunately, the farmers...and the buy and hold crowd are going to take the brunt of this short term pain.

Good time to start averaging back in to the market. Smart money takes some off the table when the market is wayyyy oversold. Its an easy way to control market risk. You don't have to take 80% out like I did...but 30,40,50% is good if you can't stomach these big drops.

Did we forget when the market was going up....that it always drops faster?

From: TD
07-Apr-18
What are WE going to do if charges filed against Trump? I would guess I would see what was the out come of any trial.

Now having painted yourself into a corner..... what are YOU going to do if there are no charges? Somehow I don't see the option of an apology being offered, so what would be proper penance for pushing a false narrative and being proven wrong about it, just as publicly as predicting his guilt?

FWIW....... If the choices were Hillary or Jeb..... I think we came out OK by just having a psycho instead......

From: slade
10-Apr-18
MORE WINNING=> China’s Xi Pledges to Open Economy, Cut Tariffs on US Products

From: sureshot
10-Apr-18
Tariffs, China has tariffs on US imports? Really? But why? I thought we had free trade and tariffs only hurt the country imposing them.......

From: bigeasygator
11-Apr-18

bigeasygator's Link
"CP Industries just got an expensive lesson in the unintended consequences of protectionism.

Based in McKeesport, Pa., the company makes seamless vessels to store gases at high pressure — steel cylinders of up to six tons that it sells to the likes of the Navy, NASA and T. Boone Pickens’s Clean Energy. It has received the first bill from the 25 percent tariff that President Trump placed on steel from China and a few other countries: $178,703.09 assessed on a steel-pipe shipment scheduled to arrive at the Port of Philadelphia on Thursday.

That’s equivalent to about two weeks’ payroll. Over all, tariffs on steel pipe that the company has ordered from China — some already on its way across the Pacific — will add more than half a million dollars to raw-material costs over six months alone."

From: slade
11-Apr-18
China steel is garbage, especially fasteners, screws, nails. Watch when the next big earthquake hits... I bought a batch of bolts for the brush hog, a one inch sapling would cause the bolt to shear.

From: bigeasygator
11-Apr-18
Doesn't surprise me one bit, PD. The only people that really stand to gain from the tariff are the domestic producers (though I'm sure the mines opening back up and people getting back to work was well in motion before the tariffs). Though, as the link points out, that is not always the case for every domestic producer.

From: Amoebus
18-Apr-18
Sorghum is in China's crosshairs now with an immediate 179% charge on US imports. KS exports 1/2 of its crop to China - well, they used to.

Suggestions above that China is backing down in this trade war might have been a bit premature.

From: Amoebus
18-Apr-18
Pig Doc -"Mines are opening back up, job demand is up"

Interesting - which mines are opening up because of these tariffs? Minntac and keewatin taconite were already running full last year. I am not finding any announcements on this. It would be a good thing because that area has way too high unemployment.

From: MK111
18-Apr-18
No expert here but I think the guys in charge of this tariff war knows a lot more than us arm chair thinkers on the idea. Trump isn't dumb to hurt the US economy. Just stop and wait for the good outcome.

From: tonyo6302
18-Apr-18
I think that Tariffs should be applied like a hot ointment - don't get them near things that will hurt you.

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.. .. .

However, when it comes to China - full Tariff away;

I can start my rant list;

1. Chinese drywall

2. Chinese deadly dog food

3. Adulterated Honey ( yes, Obama tariffed Chinese honey and save the American Honey market )

4. Chinese steel ( they are intentionally flooding the market, backed by Communist dollars, and trying to destroy all other Steel producers )

5. Chinese takeover of JBS ( Brazilian meat producers )

I could go on, but won't.

Anyway, in most cases, Tariffs are not necessary, and negotiation between Countires can usually settle things.

But with the Chinese - SCREW THEM - FULL TARIFF AWAY !

Fluck them, have our Navy mine their damn harbors and be done with them !!!!!!

From: Thumper
22-May-18
"No expert here but I think the guys in charge of this tariff war knows a lot more than us arm chair thinkers on the idea. Trump isn't dumb to hurt the US economy. Just stop and wait for the good outcome."

MKlll, I think you're right. China has agreed to balance their trade difference with the US by buying more goods from the United States. So China will be spending more on US products, maybe not the Ignoramus after all.

From: slade
22-May-18
Thumper,

They only care about their 401k's, the American worker is of no value to them.

From: slade
05-Jun-18
China Offers to Buy Nearly $70 Billion of U.S. Products to Fend Off Trade Tariffs

05-Jun-18
You guys are brutal!

Amazing how the economy with regards to unemployment, 3.8%, consumer confidence etc. continues to improve. After the election we moved our retirement out of equities. Terrible decision based on my belief of what the markets would do because of his anti-trade rhetoric. Most everyone's predictions, including mine, have been wrong. Amazing time we live in. A time like no other.

From: slade
22-Nov-18

slade's Link
Free trade economists’ claims for months that the United States would be crippled by President Trump’s tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese products have been debunked by new research that shows it is China paying for the tariffs, not the U.S. The free trade apparatus of Wall Street, Washington, DC, and the big business lobby repeatedly claimed over the course of the last year that Trump’s 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion worth of Chinese goods would hurt the U.S. and American consumers.

Research by EconPol Europe reveals that the vast majority, 20.5 percent of the 25 percent tariff is being paid by China while only 4.5 percent is being paid by the U.S.

From: Grey Ghost
22-Nov-18

Grey Ghost's Link
Stocks end mostly higher, but notch worst pre-Thanksgiving performance in 7 years

"But fears about sluggish global growth, policy errors by the Federal Reserve, and uncertainty about trade relations between the U.S. and China are continuing to weigh on sentiment, and stocks fell into the close, near session lows."

Matt

22-Nov-18
Slade,

Happy Thanksgiving. Hope you have a joyous one surrounded by loved ones!

From: Rocky
22-Nov-18
People just don't seem to realize that suffocation through hypothermia is a slow process.

They want results NOW or will capitulate to their own intended goals. Give the poison time to work its magic and notch in the belt. Another cow will be waiting to afford you another belt of a bit higher quality.

From: Mint
22-Nov-18
I just saw an add for a CD return of 2.90% when during the Obama years the rates were .25%. The Fed inho raised rates too fast and that hurt the market. also the wage increases are hurting the market since companies have to pay more to the workers to retain them. This is great for the middle class and was needed desperately. During the Obama years we paid NJ minimum wage $8.25 an hour for new hires at our warehouses in NJ. Now we can't get ANYONE for less than $15 an hour. As a CFO and COO I can tell you first hand Trump and his Agenda has made a BIG DIFFERENCE in USA small businesses. The past two years were gave profit sharing to ALL of our employees due to the tax cuts and the blessed business climate. Yeah, Wall Street took a hit and that is because a lot of Wall Street earnings come from international earnings and Trump is putting America first for a change. And don't forget the Dems blue wave that was coming and the Dems winning Congress. Things have NEVER looked brighter for the American companies I deal with. On another note, the software company we hired for our new warehouse software told me that due to Trumps tariffs a lot of the companies they deal with are now opening up manufacturing in the US instead of having everything manufactured in China, Canada or Mexico. Take it for what it is worth and I was a skeptic at first, but Trump was right big time and I fully support what he is doing now.

22-Nov-18
If China blinks, institutes the reforms that the US is after, and the two countries sign a new trade deal which includes Chinese changes to their culture of screwing the US on things like intellectual property, etc, it'll be a huge win for the US economy and US geo-political standing in the world. Our markets will see huge benefits and it'll help the middle class.

Once (and if) that deal is made, the benefits to the market and the economy will marginalize any detrimental effects that occurred during the trade war.

If that happens anytime between now and the summer of 2020 without a big recession, it'll propel DJT to a second term. People vote with their wallets. The millenial loud-mouths will continue to complain, but most of them will be working good jobs, buying houses and cars, raising children, and enjoying prosperity too much to want to resist. IMO, $$$ always wins and will beat out the social ideologues, especially when his 2020 opponent will probably be touting a 180 degree change in course on fiscal and geo-political issues.

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