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2018 Midterms: Senate Projections
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Contributors to this thread:
NvaGvUp 31-Jul-18
Trax 31-Jul-18
HA/KS 31-Jul-18
NvaGvUp 31-Jul-18
JTV 31-Jul-18
Hackbow 31-Jul-18
JTV 31-Jul-18
NvaGvUp 31-Jul-18
Chuckster 31-Jul-18
Annony Mouse 31-Jul-18
HDE 31-Jul-18
Dirk Diggler 31-Jul-18
BIGHORN 31-Jul-18
HA/KS 31-Jul-18
memengako 31-Jul-18
BC 01-Aug-18
Bentstick81 01-Aug-18
Mint 01-Aug-18
Tiger-Eye 01-Aug-18
Hackbow 01-Aug-18
HA/KS 01-Aug-18
Bake 01-Aug-18
Tiger-Eye 03-Aug-18
From: NvaGvUp
31-Jul-18
While at this point I am not willing to speculate as to which party will win the House, I am comfortable with making guesses on the Senate:

Dems lose, in order of my confidence, IN, MO, FL, and ND.

That's a net gain of four seats currently held by the Dems.

Dems may very well also lose:

MD.

Yes! Maryland! (Menedez is a sleezeball and is within the margin or error in all recent polls.)

MT.

Tester is a poor fit for MT and his opponent is nipping at his heels.

GOP, OTOH, may lose perhaps one of the following:

AZ

NV

(I'm no Heller fan, but he'll be far better than his Dem opponent.) Heller leads by a thin margin in the latest polling.

TN

(Marsha Blackburn currently trails by a small amount, but I'm having trouble believing Tennessee would send a Dem to the Senate.)

Net result: GOP picks up 3-4 seats.

If we see a 2016-like electorate, it could be a 5-6 seat net win!

In WV, I think Manchin is safe. If I had to pick any of the current Dem Senators who I'd prefer to win if a GOP win was not likely, it would be Manchin. He may be a Dem, but he may be the only sitting Dem Senator who's not a bat-$h!t Crazy leftist

From: Trax
31-Jul-18
That’s about right. I have said on other threads that I believe the elephant will pick up 2-5 seats in the Senate. I also believe they will hold the House.

From: HA/KS
31-Jul-18
It will come down to turnout. I am reminded of the old business adage that one happy customer will tell one person but one unhappy customer will tell many.

Are the leftists so unhappy that they will flock to the polls? Will the media convince people that they are unhappy and get them to flock to the polls?

Will conservatives heed the danger and show up in big numbers?

Pre-election popularity of the candidates will be far less important than who shows up to vote.

From: NvaGvUp
31-Jul-18
Henry,

Excellent points.

But for me, Independents, moderate Dems, and Trump supporters may well be even more motivated than the Dems.

If so, we can thank the msm, Hollyweird, and the hateful, rioting a-holes at Antifa for that!

From: JTV
31-Jul-18

JTV's Link
We will try our best here to get that messed up Donnelly out of Office ... he road in on the coat tails of Obama in 2012 claiming to be a moderate and has been a Schumerbot ever since ... Donnelly has to go ... Braun in '18 !!

https://www.ibj.com/articles/69563-new-poll-shows-donnelly-trailing-braun-in-tight-race

From: Hackbow
31-Jul-18
"If so, we can thank the msm, Hollyweird, and the hateful, rioting a-holes at Antifa for that!"

Kyle - I think we have Trump to thank more than any of the morally challenged on your list. We (conservatives) have been asking for someone who would fight the left openly for many years.

When the primaries began, The Donald was 16th on my list, just ahead of Bush. I've eaten a lot of crow since then, but am proud I ultimately voted for him. We asked for a fighter and got one. I believe he has revived our spirit in ways the EGOP said weren't proper etiquette.

While the likes of McConnell, Boehner, McCain, Graham, etc were playing footsies with the libs, collectively we were losing interest. Trump saw it, understood how to inspire the team from his business life and gave a rousing halftime speech. Now it's on us once again to play hard to keep the ground we've gained.

From: JTV
31-Jul-18
Agree ^^

From: NvaGvUp
31-Jul-18
Hackbow,

Same here.

Trump was close to last on my list in the primaries as well, but he won and I've been more than pleasantly surprised with what he's done since.

From: Chuckster
31-Jul-18
Here in AZ Kyrsten Sinema will be the Dem nominee for Flakes seat. Kelli "Chemtrail" Ward, Martha McSally and Joe Arpaio are vying for the Rep nominee. I think Martha wins the nomination. Between Kysten and Martha, it will be razor close as Kyrsten is actually polling ahead slightly against Martha and a landslide against Kelli and Arpaio.

From: Annony Mouse
31-Jul-18
The only way Stabenaw wins in MI is that legalized marijuana is on the ballot.

From: HDE
31-Jul-18
You forgot NM will stay blue. But hey, we're in last place in the nation so nothing to see here.

From: Dirk Diggler
31-Jul-18

Dirk Diggler's embedded Photo
Tampa tonight.
Dirk Diggler's embedded Photo
Tampa tonight.
With the enthusiasm so high I think the turnout for Republicans will be pretty solid come November.

From: BIGHORN
31-Jul-18
Before the last Presidential election I was in ND talking to my friend that is a Maj. General. He had great reservations about voting for Trump. I talked to him for hours and he finally said that he was going to vote for Trump. Now, he is so happy that Trump was doing what he said that he was going to do. I will see him again this weekend and quiz him again. I know that he is one happy GOP voter.

From: HA/KS
31-Jul-18
One big factor will be who gets the nominations on the R side in house races. Good candidates can ride in on trump coattails, poor ones can easily lose.

I also believe that a lot of reluctant trump voters (me for example) who only voted against hilary are now supporters.

From: memengako
31-Jul-18
IRC, Menendez is from New Joisey. That cuban is the twin brother of Corey Bookcher.

From: BC
01-Aug-18
Bet your life the Dems will have non citizens voting. That is a main part of their long term strategy.

From: Bentstick81
01-Aug-18
BC, Exactly!. The democrats don't care about the American people. To them, it's what ever it takes for them to have complete control. The US citizens are the furthest thing from their minds.

From: Mint
01-Aug-18
Imagine if all the Republicans supported Trump and funded the wall? Then I believe the GOP would win big in the mid-terms.

From: Tiger-Eye
01-Aug-18

Tiger-Eye's Link
Trump is in my neck of woods tomorrow, stumping for Lou Barletta. Barletta is currently US Congressman for the area, winning big because of his anti illegal immigration stance. Lou is a huge underdog in the Senate race, but has solid credentials as far as his stance on immigration, taxes and is pretty much lock step with Trump. Luzerne Co. PA which is overwhelmingly democratic voted Trump in 2016. Some say it is why he won PA.

The Dem incumbent (Bob Casey) for the past 12 years is all but non existent. Has no bills to his name and has been riding Daddy's coattails his whole life. Claims to be a moderate but is just another useful idiot for Schumer. I'll bet few if any of my fellow Bowsiter's ever heard of him.

From: Hackbow
01-Aug-18
Tiger-Eye,

As a former 10 year resident of PA, I am well aware of Casey. He is truly a product of the machine and further proof that the electorate will rarely look past talking points. I knew people who voted for him because he claimed to be a moderate, pro-life candidate who really wanted to help the average worker. But, he's proven to be a morally bankrupt PLINO, pro-life in name only, who is a reliable, leftist vote with a 100% rating from NARAL. He doesn't even need to be given anything for his soulless support of the far left agenda - he simply rubber stamps whatever he's told to.

From: HA/KS
01-Aug-18
A bigger problem than illegals voting is that they get counted in the census adding congress members from the most leftist areas and stealing them from conservative areas and states.

From: Bake
01-Aug-18
I hope you're right about Missouri. I was polled last week from the McCaskill campaign. I told them under no circumstances would I ever vote for McCaskill, in large part because she didn't vote for Gorsuch.

Hope she loses big

From: Tiger-Eye
03-Aug-18

Tiger-Eye's Link
As mentioned above, Trump was here in NE PA last night stumping for Lou Barletta for US Senate. Basically hit all the points made in my above post. Immigration is a hot button issue in the area as Hazleton (Lou's hometown) has been literally run over with immigrants (legal and illegal). Hazleton was predominantly, my guess >98% white ethnicity as few as 5-6 years ago. Today it is 50/50 or perhaps greater in favor of Hispanics, although the overall population remains at about 25-30K. Crime has risen exponentially with gangs, drugs, and murder making common headlines. The people have had enough. The culture has changed from small town America to NYC.

Long time democrats are beginning to see that the promises of the Clintons, Obama's and other lefty's were hollow and this area was left behind. Trump's message is resonating!!!

While I could not attend the even,t a coworker and early childhood friend went and said it was "electrifying". People were stoked. Filled the venue with 10K + in attendance and thousands outside who were turned away at the door.

Hopefully this is a good kick start for Barletta's Campaign. He lacks name recognition in western PA, but Casey is a dud and doubt that many event know who he is.

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