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CF, Prediction Accuracy?
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Contributors to this thread:
Tiger eye 30-Aug-18
Thunderflight 30-Aug-18
Feedjake 30-Aug-18
JL 30-Aug-18
jjs 30-Aug-18
slade 30-Aug-18
Will 30-Aug-18
Grey Ghost 30-Aug-18
Owl 30-Aug-18
gflight 30-Aug-18
Franzen 30-Aug-18
BowSniper 30-Aug-18
slade 30-Aug-18
gflight 30-Aug-18
bigeasygator 30-Aug-18
bigeasygator 30-Aug-18
TD 30-Aug-18
BIG BEAR 30-Aug-18
TD 30-Aug-18
bluedog 30-Aug-18
BIG BEAR 30-Aug-18
Your fav poster 30-Aug-18
BIG BEAR 30-Aug-18
HA/KS 30-Aug-18
Grey Ghost 31-Aug-18
TD 31-Aug-18
Feedjake 31-Aug-18
Rocky 31-Aug-18
Feedjake 31-Aug-18
Will 31-Aug-18
30-Aug-18
Since I have been participating on the CF, it has been mostly dominated by dire predictions of the imminent collapse of our country, the culprit being leftists.

A constant barrage of what I call 'Sludge Reports', posted by troll who does not participate in any threads that exchange personal interest information, just attack with name calling anyone who does not go along with the belief we are on a one way track to hell.

Yet, life has improved measurably the last 18 months on many accounts, one being retirement will be much more secure for many.

So, when does all the bad crap start? Are protests really worse than in the 60s.

So far most of the predictions have been off from where I sit. In fact, a casual observer of this site would probably conclude we are a collection of fools.

So, after the requisite name calling, please answer the question. When or how long before collapse? Certainly it will happen some day, like at the end of the World. But, how about before then.

From: Tiger eye
30-Aug-18
It has already begun it's collapse. It is apparent on many fronts. It is not the SHTF apocalypse but the moral fabric that makes a country.

You see it and it starts with the removal of God. Abortion, mass murder, drugs, sex all common place.

Next is the identity politics. Hypenated americanism. Black-Americans, Hispanic-Americans etc. We are American or we aren't.

Multi Culturalism. We cannot survive as a society with many cultures.

Open borders. Without borders we are not a country.

Silencing of speech. When opposing views points are scorned or worse violently attacked ie antifa, it goes directly against our constitution. Likewise the MSM is not a "free" press. It is a propaganda machine. Precisely what the forefathers did not want.

There is no right or wrong, man or woman, history is being changed to be politically correct. Monuments toppled in the name of political correctness.

Capitalism, the greatest mechanism the world had ever seen for creating wealth is demonized. There is no alternative.

So, without God, unifying culture, borders, no right or wrong, no history and lack of wealth, we are doomed.

If you don't see it starting, I want to live where you do.

30-Aug-18
It is never going to collapse. There will be ups and downs, good/bad leaders, conflict, and crisis but our country will always survive. Right now I, as does 90% of the people I know, feel this country is headed in the right direction. I would be nice to see the media reporting good things vise the daily scandals that are only adding salt to the wounds. I'm not saying they need stories of firemen saving kittens from tree tops, but it would be nice to hear more stories about a growing economy, lower unemployment rate, and good things that are being done for the less fortunate.

From: Feedjake
30-Aug-18
Of course collapse is possible. Anyone who says otherwise needs to go study history for a while. I’m not saying it will be soon or that we are on the edge of it but Amaerica is not the world. Assyria fell. Epyptian domination ended. The Achaemenid Persian Empire fell. Greek domination ended. Rome fell. The Mongols didn’t last. The Turks dominated for years and they fell. Britain is a shadow of the empire they were. The Soviet Union collapsed. We can too. To think otherwise is as arrogant as the modern socialists who think THEY can implement Socialism perfectly unlike all their predecessors.

From: JL
30-Aug-18
There is different types of "collapse".....financial, moral, structural, societal, etc.

Some ebb, some flow.....just depends of the sequence of collective events. Bill O' used to say often with out rules or frameworks for the society to operate within, chaos will follow. That is a challenge for independent, moderate-minded folks who subscribe to the concept of live and let live....I'm ok, you're ok....freedom without rules....do whatever feels good. Although that sounds like a fun, utopian world, IMO it is just that....a non-attainable fantasy world. One could probably make an argument that would lead to a societal collapse faster than the outer extremes of far left and far right.....both of which function within a set of rules to keep things.

From: jjs
30-Aug-18
Depends if the US looses the Petro-Dollar currency status, if so we will be a 3rd world country with our debt. $21 trillion national debt and about $250 trillion unfunded liabilities is unsustainable but the band is keep playing on, get yourself out of debt and go into defensive financial security; that one you will have to figure out for yourself.

From: slade
30-Aug-18
Keep spreading your fake news snowflake " dominated by dire predictions of the imminent collapse of our country"

But I did predict Trump would win...........hehehehe

From: Will
30-Aug-18
H4W - "We" are not going any where. By "We" I mean Americans. We survived an actual, horrible civil war with over 600K AMERICAN deaths. I mean, if you can kill off 600K of your countrymen, and come out functioning, that's a pretty good sign Americans are a tough lot. Many challenges have faced us, and we keep bouncing back.

The one difference that shakes me a bit at this point, is the access to information without context. (That's not even close to suggesting censorship, it's suggesting responsibility) Heck, the desire to take in chunks of information, view them as gospel, while having literal disdain for the intricacies and gray areas created by contextual understanding. We can feed the snot out of our bias today, and often via vessels of information which look very "good" and which appear true, increasing our bias. That goes both political ways. And it makes it feel like there is way more tinfoil hat wearing than there was even 20 years ago. Example: I can hop on google and learn a LOT about building semi conductors over the next 30'. 20 years ago people would have recognized that those 30' gave me a very broad overview of semi conductors... Today, people think someone with a PhD in physics and an engineering masters degree who's spent 40 years building actual semi conductors know's less than they do - because they just googled it. Dunning-Kruger much? :)... I think we all will adapt to this speed of information and start to find methods of grounding and contextualization... right now though... It's a bit crazy.

If we, as a nation, are to fail... My suspicion is that it's going to be due to that, a belief that others are bad, horrible, nasty and evil because we are not willing to extend our gaze, and are lured to the comfort of what we think we know.

And that would be sad. Because our demise would be our own fault - no one else's.

I trust "us" though. So while I just droned on about a bunch of stuff... I think in the end, we will come through. The ability to bring different ideas and experiences to the table makes for a very creative, resilient and robust lot. America is great. It will go through ups and downs just as each of us does individually... But it will come through, stronger. That's what stress does, it makes things tougher.

From: Grey Ghost
30-Aug-18
Frank,

The doomer attitude and dire predictions have always prevailed on the CF from my perspective. I’ve never fully understood it, either.

I think some of it is just typical old age grumpiness. I call it the “the good ol’ days syndrome”. Some people lament over days gone by as they age.

For me, and the people I hang with, life just keeps improving. We finally have the resources, time, and health to enjoy the fruits of years of labor. For example, I’m currently on my 7th day in elk camp, with no set schedule to leave. I’ll leave when I either fill my tag or the season ends. Life is as great as you make it.

Matt

From: Owl
30-Aug-18
Topics of "doom" are just manifested self-awareness as far as I am concerned. I just cannot function well with a negative mindset. That is too much like wasting time to me.

From: gflight
30-Aug-18
"When or how long before collapse?"

Morality collapse under Trump.

Economic collapse under Bernie.

Little under 16 years....

From: Franzen
30-Aug-18
Some of these guys are just lucky that Hillary Clinton was the worst possible candidate that could have even been dreamed of, otherwise they would be batting .000. And the amazing part is that the Democrats actually chose her to be their candidate... well sort of.

From: BowSniper
30-Aug-18
At any point in time the risk of "the end" increases or diminshes. Like the classic Doomsday clock set now at just 2 minutes to midnight. The greatest fear at that time was nuclear war with North Korea. But I don't sweat them one bit.

The two biggest threats I think are (1) militarily from Russia and the growing danger from China. Imagine trying to force China off that island in the South China Sea? Or forcing Russia out of Crimea? (2) the weight of our national debt at some point collapsing the system.

I thought we were in very dangerous waters if Hillary won. I think Trump's win actually turned some things around. But a long term forecast is like predicting the weather. I think with Trump's win we are good for the near future (10 years)

From: slade
30-Aug-18
California Lawmakers Pass Bill to Turn State Universities into Abortion Clinics

From: gflight
30-Aug-18
"Democrats actually chose her to be their candidate... well sort of."

Rigged election super delegates and the dumb azz Dems whine about Russia. At least a report said they were DXing the Super D's....

From: bigeasygator
30-Aug-18
I was just going to copy and paste GG's response and say "ditto" but I'm not in elk camp and won't be this year (first time in 10 years not chasing those big smellies).

But just like Matt, and the people I hang with, I can look at my life and say it has consistently gotten better, year after year, and that good fortune seems to be immune to whatever party is in power and whatever dire predictions are being made.

And if things do go to hell, I've got lots of guns, ammo, and Mountain House.

From: bigeasygator
30-Aug-18
LOL I said nothing about my bank account or babies, dead or alive. I said my life has gotten better, much of which has nothing to do with material things. But you just can't help spreading Fake News, can you Fake News Hackbow?

From: TD
30-Aug-18
You mean like Zombie Apocalypse? No, not in my lifetime, maybe later.....

It not "bad" until it gets worse than the 60s?

It will go like the frogs were cooked...... little freedoms lost because there are some who don't think people should be "free", they should do what's best for, well.... if they were honest about it.... "me"......

Hunting likely lost. 2nd amendment lost. Restrictions on the 1st if somebodies feeling get hurt. Identity politics over "American" culture. The domination of one ideology at the expense of the other. Fully socialized/federal industries, starting with medical which is half way there..... the push is already on for energy. "One World" allegiance over God and country. Debts coming due will force it all along.

I could see more financial/economic problems in the next 5, certainly 10 years. Fewer and fewer earners with more and more to be supported. Stock market already overvalued with paper worth more than actual production and profit. Property values in many ways unsustainable..... or at least until the next crash, when even more property will be consolidated to fewer people....

And as stated above...... even having lost all that...... lots of folks will say "we're doing fine, nothing to worry about, life has never been better!"..... Well..... for me anyway.....

From: BIG BEAR
30-Aug-18
Wow !!!! I thought we were in the process of making America Great Again !!!!!!

We’re going to lose hunting and the 2nd Amendment !!!

You sure think highly of the U.S.A. !!!!!!!

From: TD
30-Aug-18
USA is awesome...... it's many of the people I don't think highly of.... in that they are the problem, I have no faith in to protect my liberty and freedom,just the opposite.

Again, likely not in my lifetime. But you'd have to be blind not to see the writing on the wall. Look at the changes in just the last 50 years. When I was a kid I could walk into the gun store and if I had the cash, buy pretty much any gun I wanted. Had 8 or 10 of MY OWN by the time I was 16. Handloaded for most of them. Walk in, pick up a couple lbs of powder and some primers and on my way. Seniors parking lot you could look out and count a dozen or more guns in the gun racks. Never an issue, never a problem. Not the guns nor the trucks that changed. The people. The future? I've heard some here float restrictions and yet more useless regulation to the 2nd. chip..... chip..... chip.....

Hunting 50 years ago. Take a week or two during hunting season off from school for a trip..... no problem. Never had protestors or even any organized anti-hunting groups that I was aware of. You could run hounds on cats, bears, pretty much anything you wanted to. Now in CA cat hunting AT ALL is illegal. Can no longer run hounds on bears. British Columbia bans grizzly hunts..... despite high numbers of bears. Caribou hunts cancelled outright. US polar bear hunts banned despite record number of bears...... cannot even import a legally taken bear. Wildlife biologists no longer in control...... real facts and science doesn't matter..... politics and "feelings" do.

What is it going to look like in the next 50 years? Better? Seriously? What world are you living in?

Again, it will be like boiling frogs..... you don't throw them into the boiling water..... you just start low and keep turning it up until they are boiling..... they never notice what happened..... likely said "nothing happening.... everything is fine, never been better!"

From: bluedog
30-Aug-18
I tried the boiling frog thing back when I was too young to know better. No matter how slowly I warmed the water they jumped out when it got uncomfortable for them.

Anybody else ever actually try it?

From: BIG BEAR
30-Aug-18
Ah yeah the good old days..... When a bunch of dope smoking hippies worshiped Jim Morrison and Janis Joplin and spit on our soldiers.... The country was so much better then.....

“The USA is awesome..... It’s many of the people that I don’t think highly of”............ Isn’t the USA it’s PEOPLE ???? Or do you simply love the land... the ground you live on ?? What makes the USA awesome if it is not the people ???

30-Aug-18
Those “good old days” weren’t as good as you remember or think.

We tend to romanticize those days because in many cases you were in a secluded bubble.

Sure you loved fishing in that old creek and picking a bunch of apples for Mom to make pie for the town social that weekend. How wonderful.

Except there was a lynching near that creek a few days earlier.

I’ll take modern progress coupled with timeless character traits any day over those “good ol days”

From: BIG BEAR
30-Aug-18
Come on Jeff.... Hater....?? I can’t think of many people that hate more people than you, Trax and TD....... You guys hate about 49% of America and about 80% of the rest of the world....

Heck.... you hate on quite a few guys here in the bowhunting community..... some of whom probably agree with you on 80-90% of your political views...

From: HA/KS
30-Aug-18
"It is never going to collapse." If you don't believe it, just ask Pharaoh or Caesar.

Nations do come and go. Some more quickly than others. Reasons differ as do how it happens, but it does happen.

From: Grey Ghost
31-Aug-18
Bluedog,

Where the hell you been, brother? I hope your not just buzzzing the tower.

;)

Matt.

From: TD
31-Aug-18
Hate is a hyperbolic word. Like tossing the "racist" card when one has run out of reason and logic in the argument to defend his thoughts. I disagree with some, maybe many, and defend my views the best I can. I don't call names in that defense, or try hard not to. I try not to take such things to a personal level.

Hate??? I hate a very few people and those I admit I do it is all 100% personal.

WRT the "49%" If those 49% weren't actively trying to take something away from me that is mine..... my freedoms.... my property.....my lifestyle.... I'd have no issues with them. Smile, shake hands, have a nice day. Walk away. That's not the case. I am not trying to take anything from them or change them in any way. I could not care less about them or their views. Hope y'all have a nice life, be well and prosper. But leave me and mine alone.

WRT "the people ARE America" I completely disagree. The world is full of "people" and only these very few have built an "America". It is not the people who are exceptional, people are people and always have been. America is a human experiment in self governance. An experiment in personal freedom the world had never seen in a formal state and country. It is the framework and foundation that is America, starting with the bill of rights and the constitution as the bedrock. The first to narrowly define what the GOVERNMENTS powers were limited to....... any and all others left to the states and citizens.

Only under this system of encouraging freedom, independence and rugged individualism has such a country been built. Personal freedoms never before given to the common citizen from birth. Ownership of personal property, rights of free speech, the elitists and the common man (theoretically) held to the same equal laws. Opportunity..... risk, reward.... all of it.

American culture exists because of the American concept of freedom and rights and growing to LOVE those freedoms and rights. (kinda the opposite of hate...) They did not build an "America" anywhere else where that foundation did not exist. In fact all the failed cultures can be traced back to exactly the opposite. Look to a failed country and they will have a failed culture/morality.

People are people and Americans are inherently no better nor worse than what have existed on earth from the dawn of time. They have found exceptionalism in building a world and culture given a vehicle designed to allow them to do so. That vehicle is what is America.

What the leftists are trying to do is "fundamentally change America". Alter the design to suit them. Again, they are the aggressor, not me. Because they feel it would be more "fair" to make America into a socialist leaning if not a totally Socialist/Communist country. Take away freedoms, take away property. They want to change the foundation, destroy the foundation, the true things that make America..... America. You will find few to publicly admit it, but they don't like nor want America, they would rather have a France..... Although there are a few lately who feel they can be more open with their real goals. Sanders, Ocasio-Cortez, et al...... Hate America?..... I don't know, don't know their hearts. Anti-American..... yeah, I think a solid argument could be made.

31-Aug-18
Thank you to all who answered. Really great to see views laid out from individuals who justified their own thoughts and did not use links or memes to communicate.

I do see both sides, and at times worry deeply about our future. But, at the end of the day, I am optimistic. I do not believe this great nation will necessarily follow historical patterns.

This is one heck of an experiment, unlike any other. Our lack of a homogeneous people I see as a strength, not a weakness. We adapt and accept. This stems from how I see large communities of Amish where my farm is. Their very different culture peacefully coexists. We are a tolerant nation.

Yes, I obviously can be wrong. But if I did not think we had a brighter future I would quit participating in society today and let whatever take its own course.

Thanks again.

From: Feedjake
31-Aug-18
I guess I’m a cynic Habitat because I think it will follow the pattern. It might be hundreds of years yet, but at some point what “is” will no longer resemble what “was” enough to be the same thing. We are a young nation, less than 250 years old. The Eastern Roman Empire held on for over a thousand years and I’m sure it’s citizenry thought that they were invincible. Then one day the Turks came knocking. Believing this doesn’t give me a negative “doomsday” outlook on life. I’m 25 and have 2 little girls and I’m excited about life, but it helps to stay grounded in reality and what truly is important when you remember that nothing on earth is fixed and going to last forever.

31-Aug-18
Sir, I agree. Treasure those daughters.

We may last until He comes again. I hope for the world's sake, we do.

From: Rocky
31-Aug-18
Feedjake,

You are are realists. The common enemy of every American.

The Rock

From: Feedjake
31-Aug-18

Feedjake's embedded Photo
Feedjake's embedded Photo
Habitat, they are my treasures for sure, along with their momma. Someone will last until He comes. It might not be in our time but it’s pretty clear that is one kingdom that’s never going to fall.

From: Will
31-Aug-18
Looks like a fun day there FeedJake - AWESOME. Enjoy it - kids sure grow up fast...

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