Bowsite.com

Iowa Electronics

A friend turned me on to this site a few years ago. They have been extremely accurate in predicting election outcomes. They are predicting the House goes D and the Senate remains R, as of today.

They did predict Hillary would win the popular vote, they do not predict the Electoral College just in case someone looks.

https://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/

If you believe in efficient market hypothesis (and free markets), you should believe in electronic election markets. Not surprisingly, they have been very accurate - though even the electronic markets got the 2016 election wrong.

Yes I do sir. You know I am a markets guy:)

Put this up there in time for all of the predictions. Supposedly these folks have been more accurate since their inception than anyone else. Not sure about that, but it is a very reliable source for me.

I bet they haven't considered the silent majority. You know, the folks that voted for Scott Walker to kill the liberals whining recall? Or the ones that voted Trump in, despite liberal shenanigans? People are fed up with the dems and their kindergarten tactics. I hope I'm right and the Dems lose their asses to the silent majority.

The market didn’t accurately account for them in the Presidential election, that’s for sure. That said, election markets are a pretty interesting concept - can you extend the benefits of efficiency in pricing from free markets to predict the outcome of events. Despite the market inefficiencies with the last Presidential election, election markets have proven to be very accurate.

BEG,

It called the popular vote correctly, and in small print they always said that.

70, if I had to make a bet right now, I would call it in line with their prediction.

But, still what, about 60 days. There will be movement for sure.

Recall Newtie correctly called the 2016 election. He recently predicted the Senate will stay Repub and the House Repubs will pick up seats.

I’d take some issue with the claim they called the popular vote. If you look at the prices, there was still a fairly sizable price gap between Trump and Clinton up to the day of the election. It was obviously much closer from a price perspective than the binary winner-takes-all result pricing, but I’d say their were still inefficiencies even in the popular vote market looking back at the data. That said, I still put my faith in prediction markets as being the most accurate predictors of future results.

The graph really has it too close to call. If I remember correctly, their tables did show Dem winning.

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