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Holding Senate Looking Better
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Contributors to this thread:
NvaGvUp 10-Oct-18
'Ike' (Phone) 10-Oct-18
Glunt@work 10-Oct-18
JTV 10-Oct-18
HDE 10-Oct-18
Trax 10-Oct-18
Shuteye 10-Oct-18
JTV 10-Oct-18
Mike in CT 10-Oct-18
JTV 10-Oct-18
JTV 10-Oct-18
JL 10-Oct-18
JL 10-Oct-18
JTV 10-Oct-18
JL 10-Oct-18
JTV 10-Oct-18
HDE 10-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 11-Oct-18
K Cummings 11-Oct-18
JTV 12-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 12-Oct-18
JTV 12-Oct-18
dm/wolfskin 13-Oct-18
'Ike' (Phone) 13-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 13-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 14-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 14-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 15-Oct-18
Spike Bull 15-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 15-Oct-18
Ace 15-Oct-18
JTV 15-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 15-Oct-18
BowSniper 15-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 15-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 15-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 15-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 15-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 16-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 18-Oct-18
South Farm 18-Oct-18
NvaGvUp 18-Oct-18
Bowfreak 18-Oct-18
elkmtngear 18-Oct-18
HA/KS 18-Oct-18
Ace 18-Oct-18
Scrappy 18-Oct-18
IdyllwildArcher 18-Oct-18
Bowfreak 18-Oct-18
Trax 18-Oct-18
Seapig@work 18-Oct-18
JTV 18-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 18-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 18-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 18-Oct-18
Annony Mouse 18-Oct-18
From: NvaGvUp
10-Oct-18
Recent polling is now showing Reps holding four Senate seats the Dems thought they could win.

Ted Cruz leads the Dem's latest 'Golden Boy,' Beto O'Rourke (he who ran away from an accident he caused), by nine points.

In TN, Marsha Blackburn has been moving up strongly and her lead keeps expanding. She leads by eight points in a poll from a couple of days ago and by seventeen points in a 'Live,' NYT poll where you can see the results of every call as it happens.

In AZ, Martha McSally is plus 7 in her race and even Dean Heller here in NV has taken a small lead of two points over Jackie Rosen.

"Kavanaugh Effect" pehaps?

One thing that really jumps out about the NY Times poll is that only 2% of the people they call answer the phone and also actually answer the polling questions. 2%! I wonder if this is the case with the other polls as well.

10-Oct-18
One can only hope at this point, as the Libs/Dems have lost their mind...

From: Glunt@work
10-Oct-18
I think the Kavanaugh effect will balance out positive and negative. If it results in Dems gaining a majority, we still get a decent court for a long time.

From: JTV
10-Oct-18
If we lose the House, the Dems will make it hard on Trump ... they can NOT gain control .... the Dem party, the party of Hate and Obstruction..

From: HDE
10-Oct-18
Hope the narrative in another thread holds true...

Life will be good.

From: Trax
10-Oct-18
I’ve said before and I continue to believe the Republicans will gain 2-5 seats in the Senate and will hold the House. With the way the parasite Democrats tried to railroad Justice Kavanaugh with that dizzy witch the chances have increased. Independents are going to show up strong for Republican candidates and the Party base along with all conservatives are going to show up in record numbers.

From: Shuteye
10-Oct-18
I thought Taylor Swift jumping into politics would hurt Marsha Blackburn but it seems to have helped Marsha. She has gained points since Taylor's announcement. I think people are tired of Hollywood and musicians getting into politics. I also think we will pick up seats in the Senate and hold the house.

From: JTV
10-Oct-18
Last evenings AMA's was the lowest rated EVER ... even with her opening ...she's just another Hollywood liberal now showing her ignorance of the facts .. pity ..

From: Mike in CT
10-Oct-18
Kyle, In addition to the races you mention MO is now looking better for a pick-up and ND seems to be a lock pick-up now.

Too many rationale voters saw what the Dems were and are extremely turned off. I'd say the prospects for holding onto the House are increasing by the day....

From: JTV
10-Oct-18

JTV's Link
Rush is correct again ... he is right, the dems would blow apart ... it will be so much fun to watch .. Link ^^

http://insider.foxnews.com/2018/10/10/rush-limbaugh-democrats-may-lose-it-if-they-cant-impeach-kavanaugh-and-trump

10-Oct-18
I hope you are correct about MO, Claire needs to go. Lots of money coming in though.

From: JTV
10-Oct-18
Money didnt help Clinton ...

From: JL
10-Oct-18

JL's embedded Photo
JL's embedded Photo
Martha McSally.......I like her style....a combat A-10 pilot.

From: JL
10-Oct-18
Larry Sabato isn't too optimistic for the Repubs. He blew it in 2016...hope he is wrong again. However it does pay to keep the eyes wide open and see the big pictures out there.

Larry Sabato: "Red Wave Ain't Going To Happen, It's Just A Question About How Big The Blue Wave Is" Posted By Ian Schwartz On Date October 10, 2018

University of Virginia Center for Politics Director Larry Sabato joins MSNBC's 'MTP Daily' with host Chuck Todd to discuss the Republicans struggling in states Trump won in 2016.

Sabato said Trump is in trouble in the Midwest, a part of the country where he did well in 2016, and it "seems to be flipping" in the midterm year. He said the states he carried, it appears, to elect Democratic Senators.

"Even if the Republicans hold the Senate given the very pro-Republican math that exists, President Trump is in trouble in some of these states," Sabato said. "He's fallen considerably as a whole."

"This also reminds us that 2016 was a choice," he said. "It wasn't simply that people decided to vote for Donald Trump in a vacuum. Many of them were voting against Hillary Clinton. Maybe you dispute the premise of it, but essentially it's a two-pronged decision."

Chuck Todd agreed with the premise and said the media made the mistake of believing the 2016 election was a "referendum on Trump when it was actually more of a referendum on [Hillary Clinton]."

"I've always the said the biggest error we made, collectively, in the political handicapping world was just treating 2016 as a referendum on Trump when it was actually more of a referendum on her," Todd said.

After Todd acknowledging how wrong the media was in predicting the 2016 election, Sabato predicted there will be no red wave but a huge blue wave and the question is how big of a wave it will be.

"I think we're underestimating the history that the Republicans are facing in 2018, just normal history," Todd said.

"Trump has violated so many rules of politics and so many of the norms of politics that we hesitate to say that history shows us that 'X' will happen, therefore it will happen under Trump," Sabato said.

"I'm with you if you're saying that a red wave ain't going to happen," he continued. "It's just a question about how big the blue wave is. It could be a tsunami. It could be a middle-sized wave. It could be a small wave. But there's going to be a blue wave."

From: JTV
10-Oct-18
never heard of the guy ....... I'll believe Newt Gingrich before this guy ^^ .. Newt is very optimistic for Nov. , and he was 100% correct with Trumps win .... I do believe Kavanaugh was the blasting cap ...

From: JL
10-Oct-18
Larry is normally a straight shooter on what he sees happening. He just happened to be wrong in 2016.

From: JTV
10-Oct-18
and Dick Morris happened to be wrong in 2012 ;0)

From: HDE
10-Oct-18
If the demons take control, they will cause Trump to fail the next 2 years. Ginsburg will croak before Trump's first term is done, then the SCOTUS will become left leaning, again.

From: NvaGvUp
11-Oct-18
WRONG!!!!!!

If the old bat croaks and if she is replaced by another idiot liberal, nothing changes

From: K Cummings
11-Oct-18
If the Republicans lose the house but keep the senate (which is what many people feel will happen), and Ginsburg croaks, Trump will nominate a conservative judge and the Senate will confirm him/her. House doesn't matter.

KPC

From: JTV
12-Oct-18

JTV's Link
thank you Taylor ......

https://www.foxnews.com/entertainment/marsha-blackburn-up-14-percent-despite-taylor-swifts-plea-for-opponent-phil-bredesen-in-tennessee-race

From: NvaGvUp
12-Oct-18
In Arizona, the Dem Candidate, Kyrsten Sinema (a recent Green Party candidate, if that alone is not enough to dismiss her,) has just had TWO 'Todd Aiken' moments.

First, in an interview in Texas, she called all Arizonan's "CRAZY."

If that weren't enough, a couple of days later, she said she was fine if Americans joined the Taliban to fight against America and kill our soldiers.

No, really! She actually said that!

She's toast!

GOP holds that seat!

From: JTV
12-Oct-18

JTV's embedded Photo
JTV's embedded Photo

From: dm/wolfskin
13-Oct-18
I hang up on all posters.

13-Oct-18

'Ike' (Phone)'s embedded Photo
'Ike' (Phone)'s embedded Photo

From: Annony Mouse
13-Oct-18
There is hope in MI that Debbie Donuts Stabenaw (D) will be replaced by John James. He has closed the gap between him and Debbie to 9 points in the past few weeks and is gaining in fundraising by 2-1.

Stabenaw's voting record is one that has continually put the Democrat Party ahead of us residents of Michigan. Taxes, borders, tacit support for the Antifa/proREgressive agenda.

Remember--nominally blue MI went for Trump.

Republican John James Surging in Michigan Senate Race

From: NvaGvUp
14-Oct-18
If James wins that seat, it will mean the GOP will pick up several other Senate seats which were thought to be out-of-play.

From: Annony Mouse
14-Oct-18

From: NvaGvUp
15-Oct-18
Yet another poll showing a GOP Senate candidate moving up sharply!

Emerson poll: Heller 48%, Rosen 41%.

Heller had trailed by a few points for several months until last week, when two polls showed him with a two point lead.

Now it's a seven point lead!

15-Oct-18
The usual ploys. The media reports what they wish was true and adjusts at the last minute to the truth they have known all along but didn't want to promote. That way they look more legit, they can say they called it, or were at least close, when we win.

Lying propagandists.

From: NvaGvUp
15-Oct-18
Spike,

These polling companies are NOT media companies!

From: Ace
15-Oct-18
Maybe not Kyle, but many of these polls are still oversampling Democrats.

There is only one Poll that matters, The one on November 6th, and hopefully, that one will be run cleanly.

I think that the Republicans will probably pick up a few Senate seats, and if they hold onto AZ and TN, the new Senators there will be much more likely to support the Trump agenda (than Corker and Flake were). The real question is the House, and I'm feeling like the margin may be slimmer, but the Conservatives will hold on.

From: JTV
15-Oct-18
they ALWAYS over sample Dems ....

From: NvaGvUp
15-Oct-18
Given what we saw with the NYT/Sienna calls recently, how in the world can polling companies possibly build a good polling model?

In those polls, only slightly over two percent of those called both answered the phone and were willing to respond to the poll.

Two Percent!!!

That means over 97% did not respond. Who are THOSE people? What is their race/sex/political affiliation/income level/voting history, etc.?

A good polling company needs to know those things and a lot more to produce accurate results. But how can they do that if they don't know who those 97% are?

Poll them, perhaps? LOL!

From: BowSniper
15-Oct-18
I don't recall any serious discussion that the Senate would change hands.

It's the House that was looking bad for GOP to hold. I gotta hope the left-biased polling is as bad now as it was in 2016!

From: NvaGvUp
15-Oct-18
BowSniper,

There has been a great deal of speculation over the past few months about the possibility of the Dems taking control of the Senate.

In TN, the GOP incumbent is retiring and the Dem candidate for that seat, a former popular Governor, had a small but consistent lead until the past few weeks.

Here in NV, Dean Heller is not well liked by conservatives and his seat has been considered as the GOP seat most likely to change hands.

In AZ, only recently has Martha McSally moved in front of her Dem opponent in a bid to take over Jeff Flake's seat. Flake, of course, is also retiring.

From: Annony Mouse
15-Oct-18
Tangential to this thread, but relevant in a way.

Linked from Weasel Zippers:

UH-OH: It's Not Looking Good For Keith Ellison In Minnesota

Democratic Rep. Keith Ellison is running for Attorney General of Minnesota, but it no longer appears he'll sail to victory, in part thanks to allegations of domestic abuse that have surfaced in recent weeks.

As Democrats urged Americans to "believe all women" during Supreme Court Justice Brett Kavanaugh's confirmation hearings, they were quietly trying to ignore allegations that Ellison had abused his longtime girlfriend (and possibly his ex-wife).

The oversight has led to questions about whether the Democratic Party — and, in particular, Minnesota's state party — is really interested in fully investigating allegations of sexual assault and "believing all women" who suggest they may have been physically abused.

Last month, The Hill reports, Ellison was running five points ahead of his Republican challenger, Minnesota state Rep. Doug Wardlow. Now, the two are "neck and neck" in pursuit of a seat that has been solidly blue for several decades.

The Hill also spoke to Democratic operatives in Minnesota who claim the allegations against Rep. Ellison are dragging down other Democratic candidates who refuse to distance themselves from Ellison and condemn him in any way.

(Could this be seen nationwide due to the Democrat Kavenaugh assault? jack)

The allegations against Ellison surfaced in a Facebook post published over the summer by the son of Ellison's former girlfriend. Recently, outside sources close to the woman suggest she has evidence in the form of photos and videos but hasn't brought the information forward to police. The Minnesota Democratic-Farmer-Labor Party says they conducted an investigation into the matter but that they could not substantiate the claims of abuse.

Late last week, a judge in Minnesota ruled that the Minneapolis Star-Tribune could have access to Ellison's sealed divorce records, which may contain evidence he abused his former wife. Ellison plans on appealing the decision, but he only has three weeks before the November elections.

From: Annony Mouse
15-Oct-18

Annony Mouse's Link
And this...

From: NvaGvUp
15-Oct-18
Oh, Drat!

LOL!

From: Annony Mouse
16-Oct-18
Polls: Blue Wave Receding

CNBC doesn't find Democrats outperforming their normal registration advantage.

CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows no big blue wave in November 3 Hours Ago | 00:52 With economic optimism soaring in the country, will Democrats be able to sweep to power in either house of Congress or will buoyant sentiment help Republicans keep hold of their Congressional majorities?

The latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey offers mixed signals, but leans against a wave Democratic election like that those that swept Republicans to power in 2010 and 2014.

The poll of 800 Americans across the country, with a margin of error of 3.5 percent, found a six-point Democratic lead on the question of who voters will choose in the November congressional elections. The 42 percent to 36 percent margin is not far from what pollsters would expect given the greater percentage of Democratic registered voters.

"A six point differential is not something that's going to cause a big electoral wave," said Micah Roberts, the Republican pollster on the CNBC poll, a partner Public Opinion Strategies. "Economic confidence that people have among a lot of groups is providing a buffer" for Republicans.

And while an ABC poll finds a nine point Democrat lead in the generic congressional poll -- 53-42 -- in the sixty-six districts that are actually competitive, that actually are in play, Republicans lead those by a single point, 47-46.

Guys, don't vote because you believe the Republican Party should be rewarded.

Vote because you hate the progressive totalitarians and dealing them a setback may actually drive them mad.

From: NvaGvUp
18-Oct-18
RCP now has the GOP picking up three Senate seats in their 'no toss up' projection.

Two weeks ago, they had the GOP losing one seat.

From: South Farm
18-Oct-18
"they ALWAYS over sample Dems ...."

Because most of us are at work when they call, probably..

From: NvaGvUp
18-Oct-18
They should over sample Dems to some degree, as there are more registered Dems in the country than there are Reps.

From: Bowfreak
18-Oct-18
I am not sure how the house plays out but part of me thinks the Republicans hold the house too. If people turn out to vote it is a no brainer. The problem is that Trump won't be on the ballot to carry their water in November.

From: elkmtngear
18-Oct-18
If the House elections are decided by Independents, Dems are screwed. 90 percent of the "Toss Up" races on RCP right now, either show a Republican in the lead, or a statistical tie.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2018/house/2018_elections_house_map.html

Plus, the House map only shows a 7 point margin, and that is not enough, for Dems to take control of the House.

Like the 2016 General Election, these polls do not take into account the "Silent Majority".

From: HA/KS
18-Oct-18
Unless the house races are looked at individually, projections about who will control the house mean nothing.

From: Ace
18-Oct-18
Great point HA.

But ... when the total votes cast for the Dems and those cast for the Reps are counted, the Dems will "win the popular vote" again, that's like a moral victory to the Progressives.

I think that the Republicans will hold onto the house by a slim margin. And the Democrat Party will decide that the reason they lost is that they aren't Liberal enough. Maybe they'll run Ocasio-Cortez for President. Those Debates would be Can't-Miss events.

From: Scrappy
18-Oct-18

Scrappy's Link
Rush says we got this.

18-Oct-18
"Unless the house races are looked at individually, projections about who will control the house mean nothing."

This is absolutely true. The thing is, if you do that, it looks like the Democrats take the House.

From: Bowfreak
18-Oct-18
I looked at it today on RCP. As of right now if the polls were 100% accurate the Republicans would need about 5 of the tie seats or seats where one poll has the D winning and another poll had the R winning to break their way.

From: Trax
18-Oct-18
Lock it down, I've been saying it for months. The Republicans will gain 2-5 seats in the Senate. It is the House where we could lose control. I believe we will hold onto the majority there, but it is in play.

From: Seapig@work
18-Oct-18

Seapig@work's embedded Photo
Seapig@work's embedded Photo
Trump keeps saying, "I think you'll be surprised."

He's got something up his sleeve. Trust PotUS Trump.

From: JTV
18-Oct-18

JTV's Link
https://therightscoop.com/watch-rush-limbaugh-gives-his-big-prediction-for-november/

From: Annony Mouse
18-Oct-18
No wonder why the Democrats are so anti-2A...even without a firearm, they manage to shoot themselves in their feet.

Project Veritas Sting Video: Claire McCaskill Staffer Says Planned Parenthood Doesn't Donate Directly to McCaskill So As Not to Alienate Pro-Life Voters, But Smuggles a Lot of Money to Her Through Cut-Out Organizations

Krysten Sinema Just Virtue-Signaled Herself out of Senate Race

As Twitchy says, she says "Arizona" with such disdain it looks like she smelled her own fart.

From: Annony Mouse
18-Oct-18
Even holding the House is looking better.

Republicans May Flip Minnesota Democrat District After DCCC Pulls Funding

Pete Stauber has a 15 point lead over his Democrat opponent.

The Democrats need to hold all their seats and win 23 seats in order to have control of the House of Representatives.

It looks like they’re going to lose a seat in Minnesota’s 8th District, which is a heavy Democrat district. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) decided to pull $1 million in funding to support Democrat candidate Joe Radinovich since his Republican opponent Pete Stauber has a 15 point lead!...

From: Annony Mouse
18-Oct-18
From Moonbattery:

Elizabeth Warren Does Something Constructive

Positive results could come of the preposterous claim made by Elizabeth Warren and liberal apparatchiks in the media that being somewhere between 1/64 and 1/1,024 Mexican/Colombian/Peruvian makes her an Indian:

Because if Warren is an Indian, then so are most of the rest of us. And most of us are also African-American or Hispanic. If everyone is an Indian, then no one is an Indian. This logic is fatal to the whole corrupt affirmative action enterprise.

Having driven off the white working class, the Democrat Party has nothing left but Cultural Marxism — and that relies almost entirely on race. A party that doesn’t stand for anything other than promoting homosexuality won’t get far outside of California and New York.

From: Annony Mouse
18-Oct-18

Annony Mouse's Link
Interesting read and POV...long, but some thoughts that seem legitimate.

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