"Vegas Oddsmaker Predicts GOP Upset Wayne Allyn Root | Posted: Nov 05, 2018
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This is my final column before the midterm election. So, this former Vegas oddsmaker turned national political commentator has a few predictions and common sense observations to make.
Back in 2016 I predicted a Trump victory when no one else did. Every poll showed Trump would lose by a wide margin. Nate Silver of the NY Times predicted Hillary’s chances of winning at 92%. These pollsters make their living by polling actual human beings. I don’t. So how did I know?
Simple. First, size matters. You could see it in the rallies. Trump would attract eight hour lines and 10,000 or more attendees at wild, intense rallies all over America. I should know. I was opening speaker for six Trump campaign events here in Las Vegas.
Meanwhile Hillary was attracting 100 to 200 attendees at a rally here in Vegas. I could fit Hillary’s rallies in my living room. The same story held true across America. That was my first reason for realizing Trump was going to pull a huge upset that few saw coming.
Part Duex was also simple. Trump was “the whisper candidate.” Everywhere I went, people whispered in my ear, “I’m with you. I’m for Trump.” They wouldn’t tell pollsters.
They wouldn't put up yard signs. No bumper stickers on their car. No mention of their support of Trump around the office watercooler. But they whispered to me. The pollsters never had a chance.
Don’t look now, but it’s all happening again. Nate Silver says Democrats have a 80%+ chance of winning the House. Cook Report says Democrats will win the House by 40 seats. All the experts say it’s over- Democrats will win. I'll go out on a limb and disagree again.
I see Florida Democrat Governor candidate Andrew Gillum holding a rally with Bernie Sanders and the whole place is empty.
Barack Obama could not fill a high school gym in Milwaukee.
I witnessed firsthand Joe Biden and Obama at separate events here in Las Vegas playing to small crowds.
Meanwhile I was opening speaker for President Trump’s event in Las Vegas last month- with 10,000 waiting in line for hours in a place where no one cares much about politics.
This is a phenomenon.
Does that sound like the GOP is losing 40 seats? Dream on delusional Democrats.
Then there’s “the whispers.” Nothing has changed. Trump has fulfilled almost all of his campaign promises. He is the only politician in history who did exactly what he promised. And those same voters are whispering to me again- they love Trump now, more than ever.
Then there’s common sense. The Trump economy is BOOMING. The latest results are out- 250,000 more jobs last month, far above what was expected.
The lowest unemployment in half a century. The number of Americans employed is the highest EVER. Almost 500,000 new manufacturing jobs under Trump. The kind Obama claimed would never happen again. 1000 new manufacturing jobs a day last month- the best results since the 1990's.
And most importantly, wages grew by a remarkable 3.1%- the most in a decade. Who in their right mind would vote against THAT?
That could be why Trump’s approval rating among blacks is now 40%. If only white liberals weren’t blind, deaf and really dumb.
Most importantly, Trump has brilliantly kept the emotional issue of illegal immigration front and center. He wants to block the caravan, end birthright citizenship and make it much harder for illegal aliens to claim asylum. The polls are out- 65% of likely voters in swing districts across the USA agree with Trump. The middle class will come out in record numbers for Trump. Bet on it.
In the 2014 midterm election in Texas 1.7 million voted early. This year early voting in Texas numbered over 4.3 million. With a booming economy and an illegal alien invasion in the headlines, you think they’re coming out for Democrats?
No way Jose.
I'll go out on a limb again. I'll put my gut instincts up against every poll and pollster and political "expert." All of them...all of them...say the House is lost. But they don't have a clue what's happening. I predict they're all wrong again. The Silent Majority is whispering again- and they love Trump. They support Trump. They will reward Trump.
I'll go out on a limb again to predict another upset for the GOP on Tuesday. We will expand our Senate majority by 3 to 6 seats. It will be very close but, the GOP will hold the House. America stays bright red- again
Democrats will be in shock and mourning. The pollsters got it all wrong again.
And Wednesday morning will be the busiest day for psychiatrists and psychologists in the history of America."
^^^^^^^^ I love this line! Please Lord, let this become reality, and let the Red Wave swell!
I voted today, the only one on the ballot that has a national influence, Robin and I both voted for Kevin Yoder. I know this has not garnered much attention on the CF, but Kevin is a good guy and surprisingly behind in the polls to a very liberal challenger. If she wins, the house will probably go dem, IMO. The only thing good about her is she was a tough MMA fighter.
Yeah, I'll bank on that !
according to exit polls
78 percent of women say it is important to elect more women and trumps rhetoric definitely affected their vote.
-- 67% want to keep abortion laws as is.
71% believe it's important to elect racial/ethnic minorities to Congress.
Women voters are going to explode these midterms.
It's a confusing graphic but that's what drudge says too.
And that Gallup poll JTV posted....I guess all streaks come to an end at some point.
Sure, we lost the House, but there was no Blue Wave.
More importantly, we gained seats in the Senate and except in Texas, matched, out-performed or seriously out-performed what was forecast.
No one thought we'd blow away Donnelly and McCaskill as we did.
Scott won despite being down a bit in the polls.
Tester won, but underperformed projections.
The real winner yesterday was Donald J Trump. Where he went to campaign in the last two weeks, the GOP out-performed across the board.
Just ask Andrew Gillum, who had a 4-5 point lead going into Election Day how those polls worked out for him.