Contributors to this thread:
What I'll be watching for early tonight:
House: VA 7, FL 27
Senate: FL, MD NJ, IN, TN, WV
State Houses: FL
Both House seats above are currently in GOP hands. David Brat faces a tough challenge for re-election . In Floriduh, the incumbent is retiring and Donna Shalala is the Dem candidate. She'd once been expected to win in a cakewalk, but the race is now neck and neck. If the Dems don't win both of these seats, a blue wave will not be happening. If they lose both, it's likely a signal of what we saw in 2016 and the GOP will likely hold the House.
Senate: In Floriduh, Scott and Nelson have been essentially tied for a long time. If Scott wins, DiSantos likely also wins his bid for the Statehouse and the rout will be on!
In MD NJ, while Menendez is the likely winner, if he doesn't win by more than 5-6 points, the Dems' hopes for a sweeping victory across the country are OVER.
Later on, I'll be paying close attention to the Senate races in IN, TN, TX, MO, MT, ND, MI, AZ and NV. A new poll today shows Debbie Donuts has a lead of just three points!
I'll also be following the Statehouse races in WI, SD and NV
"In MD, while Menendez is the likely winner, if he doesn't win by more than 5-6 points, the Dems' hopes for a sweeping victory across the country are OVER."
I must be missing something. My wife and I just voted and there is no Menendez on the ballot in Maryland. I thought he was in NJ?
I just drove backroads from Fredericksburg to Scottsville this weekend on a Deer hunt, and saw a butt load of Abigail Spanburger signs, as compared to very few David Brat signs. This is in the middle of Virginia "flyover" country. Mostly Farms.
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I am just a tad concerned for VAs 7th District.
MO McCatkill must go I am not voting for Japheth Campbell but Hawley to get her out. Would have had her azz out years ago but for an idiot....
What I'll be watching for early tonight:
Matt
AZ-Hoping for a Sen. McSally win however I fear this race will be extremely close. First results wont be available until 8pm local time so 10pm for the east coast.
Kyle I’ve had enough of the “floriduh” crap. Have a little respect for the good people here
Connor, take heart. You can call my state state Nevaduh if Heller loses and Vegas Chooses Sisolak as the Dem Governor. Our once proud and red state has been overwhelmed with the liberal filth immigrating from Kalifornia.
I will even call this state "Nevaduh" should it go completely blue.
Lex,
You're right.
It's NJ!
Kyle I’ve had enough of the “floriduh” crap. Have a little respect for the good people here
Yeah, I saw that the first time.
No doubt FL is full of good people. But it's hard to forget that a few years back, we waited a month to find out who won the POTUS election because thousands of people there were too dumb to figure out how to make a hole in a piece of paper, ;^)
I remember I was hunting mulies in Cody, Wy while they were looking for 'hanging chads'.
Just a tiny part of the vote in so far in IN (1.4%), but Braun leads Donnelly 61%-35%.
1.8% in in IN and Braun still leads 61%-35%, for whatever that's worth with so few votes counted.
2.8% in now and it's Braun 59%, Donnelly 37%
Kyle,
Can you put your Chris Berman voice on for the play by play?
;-)
Matt
5% in and it's 57.7% - 38.4%
6.4% and Braun leads 59%-37%
9.6% in and it's Braun 58%-38%
Greg Pence, the older brother of Vice President Pence, has been elected to Indiana's 6th Congressional District, @ABC has projected
21.4% in and Braun leads 58%-38%
7:55 PM: OHIO SENATE: NBC Calls for Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH):
NBC News: Donna Shalala is the winner in FL-27. Dem pickup
57% in in VA 7 and Brat leads 50%-48%.
33% in in IN and Braun is now up 138,000+ votes, @ 56%-40%
80% in in FL and Scott leads Nelson by 60,000 votes.
74% in the Governor's race and DiSanto leads the socialist by 83,000 votes.
In GA, Kemp is crushing the gun grabber by 190,000 votes, but only 19% of the votes are in.
MI: John James has a 3% lead over Debbie Donuthin' Stabenaw at present.
Some of the ones I was really worried about are doing well in Florida. Scott has won by 1% in his previous races and it looks like he is true to form. The votes that aren't in yet I think are from the panhandle. That is pretty red. I'm not sure but I think it is the panhandle they don't have counted yet.
fivethirtyeight.com had Donnelly at 5 in 7 and Mike Braun at a 2 in 7 chance of winning. Polls were just a bit off....
24.5% in in GA and Kemp is plus 265,000 votes over the Gun Grabber!
JTV Don't say suck on that Taylor swift. Use something else please
89.9% in in FL and Scott leads Nelson by 63,000 votes.
With 84% in, DiSantis is +84,000 votes!
In TN, Marsha Blackburn is pounding Phil Bredesen and has been declared the winner!
In MI, John James is up by 25,000 but only 12% of the votes are in.
93% in now in FL and Scott is +62,000 votes and DiSantis is +83,000!
Kyle,
FOX just called House to Dems.
Fox News has called that Democrats will take control of the House.
138 House seats have now been decided and the Dems have picked up just TWO seats!
In ND, Heitkamp is down 15% on Kramer with 19% of the votes in.
Kyle,
You are like K Rove who kept calling Romney after it was all over. Lol. Whatever you are watching, change it.
Back to Florida, where, with 94.5% of the vote in, Scott is up 76,000 on Nelson and DiSantis is +97,000 on Gillum!
Unfortunately, Fox News just projected the Libs will take control of the House...so you can take that to the bank.
Just 3.5% of the vote left to go in FL and both Scott and DiSantis have reasonable leads.
Looks like the socialists are going to take the house. Lets hope the senate stays red.
8:10PM first numbers in: McSally 49% Sinema 48% McSally is up by 6K votes. AZ Senate
Fox just called the race for Cruz in Texas Senate
Kansas governor went socialist.
In KS, the votes were mostly against Kobach than for Kelly.
Senate stays red, house goes socialist
Hawley wins Missouri senate seat.
So frustrating that the Republican house leadership has fallen and now all forward momentum towards US further strength and success is going to come to a road blocking, foolish house investigating halt
One good thing, when RBG decides to step down, the senate should not have a problem with Trumps nominee.
Terry
“One good thing, when RBG decides to step down, the senate should not have a problem with Trumps nominee.”
Odds of her stepping down in the next two years are slim to none.
Odds of her kicking the bucket in the next two years... higher than slim to none.
From your lips to gods ears, idllewild. said it because no one else will.
Here Come The Crazies! Nancy Pelosi As Speaker, Maxine Waters, Adam Schiff, Elijah Cummings In Leadership Roles
What is up with Nevada, 4 hours after the polls close and no results?
Terry
HIP HIP HOORAY....for political stagnation!!
The less they can change, the less they can f**K up. I will sleep well tonight.
Matt
Lot of close races tonight, that's the scary part!
Most of the D's gains in the house are moderates and it looks like they'll end up somewhere around 123 seats, not a real strong majority. Trump has put the question of citizenship in the next census count. This will give us an accurate count for representation and redistricting. As it stands now a mathematical formula is used designed by LWL's who think all illegals deserve representation. This will take away solid blue house seats and put them with in reach of the red zone.
I sure hope the R's are talking to some of the moderate D's into changing parties.
On what planet does getting one arm chopped off considered a "Tremendous success"?
Or, is the victory Trump is tweeting about the fact they didn't lose the Senate too?
Dude is insufferable.
Matt
Finally a check on trump. As it should be. No more rubber stamping every ridiculous whim he has.
Oh and if he thinks he’s done w the special counsel, it’s only getting started now!
YFP...remember your messiah's first midterms in 2010? The one where the Dems lost 60 seats in the House and 6 in the Senate? That was a check....and a checkmate!
""Finally a check on trump""
Trump's had a target on him since day one. He's not going anywhere. Don't give yourself false hope.
"I sure hope the R's are talking to some of the moderate D's into changing parties."
I was thinking a similar thing. If the extremist, left-wing Dems in leadership positions go off the reservation....I would not be surprised to see a moderate Dem or two flip to Repub.
For YFP.....a divided Congress usually means gridlock and nothing gets done. Once the folks see that, especially after seeing alot accomplished the last two years, they will start to 2nd guess the wisdom of voting for a Dem House. 2020 isn't that far off. If Trump can still get some things done I think he stands a decent chance of getting re-elected. That might bode well for the down ballot Repubs. The extremist Dems in the House better play their hand smartly.
^^^ Yes, my glass is half full view makes me think the dems winning back the house will increase Trump's chance's for re-election in 2020. Especially if the dems take the route of litigating vs legislating.
Boy you know you gotta move when Dizzy Lizzy wins by a land slide! My state was all 70% Dems vs 30%. Time to get the hell out!
Biggest loser... the Wall. I don't see anyway the wall happens now. And deficit will get even worse because the onky way both parties will agree is if they BOTH get all the spending they want.
Biggest winner might be GOP in 2020. I don't like how close some of these races were, but the way Senate dems behaved during Kavanaugh hearings cost them seats... and I expect the House dems will really behave like maniacs and hurt economic progress for the next two years helping the next GOP president.
Tester has been called the winner in MT and that looks correct. Where the votes have yet to be counted are heavily pro-Tester areas.
OTOH, the same thing applies in AZ where McSally leads by 13,900 votes with less than 1% of the vote still out. There just aren't enough votes left for Sinema to catch up, esp. as those yet-to-be counted votes appear to be fairly evenly divided between McSally areas and Sinema areas.
Net result is the GOP gains three Senate seats. That's very important going into the 2020 election where the GOP has to defend 22 seats but the Dems only need to defend 11 seats.
Also good is that even though the wins in AZ and TN are GOP holds, the two new Senators are far more conservative than the Senators they are replacing.
Some quick math shows that the 7/1,000th of the vote that is as yet uncounted totals to just 12,144 votes.
If Sinema gets 100% of those votes, she still loses!
One more thing about AZ:
They require an automatic recount if the margin of victory for the leader is less than 1/10th of 1% of the total votes cast for all candidates.
In this case, that comes to ~ 1,730 votes.
So even if Sinema gets 100% of the as yet uncounted votes, she STILL falls short of getting the recount.
"Biggest loser... the Wall."
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I have stated it numerous times, unless you are going to guard the wall like East Germany guarded the Berlin Wall ( with deadly force via machine guns ), it is a total waste of money and time.
So I think that "no wall" is a huge win for the tax payer.
If you really want to stop the illegals, prosecute those that hire illegals with viciousness, and increase fines and jail times.
No jobs + no money = no illegals
If The Wall is built, it needs to be funded in the lame duck session before year's end.
"watch the stock market crumble tomorrow .."
I wish it would "crumble" like this every day. LOL
Matt
Matt,
Here's what's interesting.
In a POTUS's first term, in the twelve month period after his first mid-term elections, since WWII, the market has AVERAGED a 17% gain, regardless of party.
17%!
Kyle,
Even more interesting, IMO, is the markets have historically performed far better under a split Congress.
I guess investors favor political stagnation, as I always have.
Matt
I asked the Sec State in AZ why the Senate numbers aren't being updated.
Here's the response I received:
"The counties are currently working to verify the signatures on each and every one of the hundreds of thousands of mail-in ballots before they can be tabulated. Once they are signature verified, the County Recorders then check to make sure that a voter didn’t mail in a ballot AND vote in person at a polling place.
This obviously takes a little bit of time and is done to ensure that voters can trust the outcome of their elections."
The red team loses control over half of their legislative branch, and their cheerleaders are spinning it into a victory. Too funny.
A tie is only a victory if your are the Cleveland Browns, or if you prefer political gridlock, like me. Otherwise, it's akin to kissing your sister.
Matt
FINALLY, Arizona has updated the election results.
Now, with 95.5% of the votes counted, McSally is up 25,900!
There were three possible outcomes.... GOP/Conservative control, split gridlock, or Democratic/Socialist control. Gridlock is somewhat of a victory compared to the predicted Blue Wave losing both Senate and House.
If you think gridlock is somehow better than the solid Conservative gains we have experienced in the past two years, there is something seriously wrong with your way of thinking.
Matt,
It's not a split!
Why?
Because the Senate matters a lot more than does the House.
Perhaps you are familiar with the process for confirming Justices to the Supreme Court?
The House is in no way involved. The Senate decides!
Game, Set, Match!
Again, the red team spins having control over less than they had before as a win.
I find that comical.
Matt
Jeff,
How's the stock market doing?
Solo, I don't count on either team boosting my "investment totals". In fact, history shows us the markets do better when neither team has control of Congress.
Matt
Update on AZ senate race: yesterday McSally was up 17K on Sinema with about 500K ballots left to count. The recorders office release an updated count today at 5pm. Sinema is now up 2,100 votes with about 345K ballots left to count. I am very concerned because the majority of ballots left to count are from Maricopa County (Phx area) and I believe Sinema will win Maricopa County. Apparently what is causing the slowdown is people who received early ballots however they did not mail them in and instead dropped them off at a polling place on election day. While that is legal here, They must be checked to make sure someone did not vote twice. I'll have another update tomorrow evening. I'm glad the senate has a cushion already cause this one ain't looking good.
