Summit Treestands
Running Out of Oil? Really?
Community
Contributors to this thread:
NvaGvUp 08-Jan-19
SB 08-Jan-19
Grey Ghost 08-Jan-19
NvaGvUp 08-Jan-19
Dirk Diggler 08-Jan-19
JTV 08-Jan-19
Grey Ghost 08-Jan-19
NvaGvUp 08-Jan-19
NvaGvUp 08-Jan-19
Grey Ghost 08-Jan-19
bigeasygator 08-Jan-19
NvaGvUp 08-Jan-19
TT-Pi 08-Jan-19
gflight 08-Jan-19
TT-Pi 08-Jan-19
bigeasygator 08-Jan-19
Coyote 65 09-Jan-19
Two Feathers 09-Jan-19
JTV 09-Jan-19
Rhody 09-Jan-19
HDE 09-Jan-19
Bowfreak 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
Tonybear61 09-Jan-19
WV Mountaineer 09-Jan-19
South Farm 09-Jan-19
HDE 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
Trax 09-Jan-19
HDE 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
HDE 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
Trax 09-Jan-19
bigswivle 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
gadan 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
Bowfreak 09-Jan-19
Rhody 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
Dirk Diggler 09-Jan-19
bigeasygator 09-Jan-19
HDE 09-Jan-19
TD 09-Jan-19
HDE 09-Jan-19
From: NvaGvUp
08-Jan-19
Since I was a kid almost 60 years ago, over and over and over again, I' heard the claim that the world is running out of oil.

But then more oil reserves than anyone could have imagned are discovered.

Then even more yet.

Then new ways to get oil, such as fracking, sideways drilling and more.

So here's just one more example:

"BP just discovered a billion barrels of oil in the Gulf of Mexico

Tom DiChristopher

BP's investment in next-generation technology just paid off to the tune of a billion barrels.

The British energy company has discovered 1 billion barrels of oil at an existing oilfield in the Gulf of Mexico. BP also announced two new offshore oil discoveries and a major new investment in a nearby field.

BP is the Gulf of Mexico's biggest producer, but it's making strides to hold that title.

BP now expects its fossil fuel output from the region to reach 400,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day by the middle of the next decade. Today, it produces about 300,000 boepd, up from less than 200,000 boepd about five years ago.

On Tuesday, the company said it will spend $1.3 billion to develop a third phase of its Atlantis field off the coast of New Orleans. Scheduled to start production in 2020, the eight new wells will add 38,000 bpd to BP's production at Atlantis. The decision comes after BP found another 400 million barrels of oil at the field.

BP made the massive 1 billion-barrel discovery at its Thunder Horse field off the tip of Louisiana.

Executives are crediting their investment in advanced seismic technology and data processing for speeding up the company's ability to confirm the discoveries at Atlantis and Thunder Horse. BP says it once would have taken a year to analyze the Thunder Horse data, but it now takes just weeks.

"We are building on our world-class position, upgrading the resources at our fields through technology, productivity and exploration success," Bernard Looney, BP's chief executive for production and exploration said in a statement.

Just northeast of Thunder Horse, BP also announced new discoveries at fields near its Na Kika platform.

BP says it plans to develop reservoirs at its Manuel prospect, where Shell holds a 50-percent stake. Producers also found oil at the Nearly Headless Nick prospect near Na Kika, where BP has a 20.25-percent working interest."

From: SB
08-Jan-19
So when is gasoline going to get under a dollar a gallon?

From: Grey Ghost
08-Jan-19
Kyle,

Do you think think the world's oil supply is limitless?

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
08-Jan-19
GG,

Probably not,

Yet you are asking and implying the exact same thing I was asked sixty years ago!

But then, before man discovered oil and the uses for oil, the experts were predicting we'd run out of whale oil.

But so what?

Some as yet unknown next new thing will come along, thanks to man's never-ending ability to come up with a new way to solve a supposedly unsolvable problem.

Do you disagree?

From: Dirk Diggler
08-Jan-19
Abiotic oil.

From: JTV
08-Jan-19
Flux Capacitor ;0) ............. dont worry AOC will have an answer ;0) ... the libs/socialists/dems say she is the best of the best of the best

From: Grey Ghost
08-Jan-19
"Probably not,"

Good. Then, do you think racing to the end of a finite supply of oil makes sense, without a viable alternative?

I know that the wonder of exponential growth is what keeps investing alive. How does that translate to consuming a finite resource?

Matt

From: NvaGvUp
08-Jan-19
Or maybe alchemy or even a perpetual motion machine.

Right, AOC?

From: NvaGvUp
08-Jan-19
Matt,

Do you also believe what the Luddites tried to sell us?

From: Grey Ghost
08-Jan-19
Kyle,

I don't know what "luddites" tried to sell us,

What I do know is that racing to the end of a finite resource is dumb. But I'm a simple man..

Matt

From: bigeasygator
08-Jan-19
Just for clarity, having STOIIP (stock tank oil initially in place) is not the same as recoverable reserves. Certainly isn’t bad news for BP, but only a fraction of that billion, if any, will ever be produced.

From: NvaGvUp
08-Jan-19
BEG,

And why is that?

From: TT-Pi
08-Jan-19
Nuclear Revival. If we run dry. Till then let's stop fooling ourselves with solar and wind.

From: gflight
08-Jan-19
Other resources will probably be long exhausted and the planet overpopulated before oil runs out.....

The question is how much it will cost to get it or if it will be replaced by an alternative by then.

From: TT-Pi
08-Jan-19
There are alternatives already and when the cost is competitive they will revive. Nuclear technology is advancing. Reactors that burn the spent fuel is in the works. Problem solved.

From: bigeasygator
08-Jan-19
”And why is that?

Kyle, Lots of reasons. Typical recovery factors in DW fields are 20-30% at best. Depending on the nature of the reservoir, it could be lower. For example, there might be 1 bln barrels in place, but it may be divided up into geological compartments that ultimately make much (or all) of it uneconomic to produce. The drive mechanism behind the recovery may be weak, and leave a lot of unswept oil behind. The oil and/or the rock it is flowing out of may be of a poor quality that will limit how much oil is produced. Like I said, a good rule of thumb for plays in the GOM is about 1/4 to 1/3 of the oil in place.

From: Coyote 65
09-Jan-19
The Permian Basin (Midland/Odessa) was supposed to be out of oil in 50's, 60.s etc. etc. Guess which region is pumping more oil than ever before?

Yes the majors recovery is 20-30% but then they sell those fields to companies like Hilcorp that go in and turn these "depleted" fields into money makers for themself and extract much more of the oil.

Terry

From: Two Feathers
09-Jan-19
Who does the refining? I thought the US was short on refining capabilities and capacities?

From: JTV
09-Jan-19
some is shipped over seas now, the US is now the major exporter of petroleum in the world as of 2018 ..... imagine how low the gas prices could go if we had more refining capabilities and could keep that gas here ... $1.99 now isnt bad, but hey, I'd like to see it lower and stay there thru the summer months and into next deer season ...... we get screwed here because they require the damn summer blends due to the EPA and the prices rise by 20-30 cents a gallon every spring/summer after the switch over ...

From: Rhody
09-Jan-19
Earth Is An Oil-Producing Machine — We're Not Running Out

KERRY JACKSON 11/04/2015

Ever since M. King Hubbert in the 1950s convinced a lot of people with his "peak oil" theory that production would collapse and we'd eventually exhaust our crude supplies, the clock has been running. And running. And it will continue to run for some time, as technology and new discoveries show that there's still an ocean of oil under our feet.

Engineering and Technology Magazine reported this week that BP — the company that once wanted to be known as "Beyond Petroleum" rather than "British Petroleum" — is saying "the world is no longer at risk of running out of resources."

"Thanks to investment into supercomputers, robotics and the use of chemicals to extract the maximum from available reservoirs, the accessible oil and gas reserves will almost double by 2050," Engineering and Technology said.

A BP official told the magazine that "energy resources are plentiful. Concerns over running out of oil and gas have disappeared."

Things are so good, in fact, that Engineering and Technology says "with the use of the innovative technologies, available fossil fuel resources could increase from the current 2.9 trillion barrels of oil equivalent to 4.8 trillion by 2050, which is almost twice as much as the projected global demand." That number could even reach 7.5 trillion barrels if technology and exploration techniques advance even faster.

This information backs up the idea that Earth is actually an oil-producing machine. We call energy sources such as crude oil and natural gas fossil fuels based on the assumption that they are the products of decaying organisms, maybe even dinosaurs themselves. But the label is a misnomer. Research from the last decade found that hydrocarbons are synthesized abiotically.

In other words, as Science magazine has reported, the "data imply that hydrocarbons are produced chemically" from carbon found in Earth's mantle. Nature magazine calls the product of this process an "unexpected bounty " of "natural gas and the building blocks of oil products."

So don't feel guilty about exploiting this "bounty." There seems to be plenty to go around — and there will probably still be a lot left when technology, not hurried by government mandates and subsidies but guided by market forces, produces practical and affordable renewable energy.

But for now, enjoy our cheap, abundant and efficient "fossil" fuels.

From: HDE
09-Jan-19
horizontal drilling and frac'ing are not new technologies, just refined.

From: Bowfreak
09-Jan-19
Dirk is correct.

Abiotic Oil.

What we have been told all of these years is simply not true.

We may not have a limitless supply, but we aren't running out of oil. Just like we aren't running out of trees.

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19
”Guess which region is pumping more oil than ever before?”

People always knew that oil and gas was there. It was a matter of making it recoverable. Fracking has been the key. And yes, independents come in and suck the last bit of predicable reserves out, but they aren’t doubling recovery. They’re redeveloping fields to take overall recovery from something like 25% to 30%, as an example. Physics prevents us from doing much more.

And no one in the industry believes in abiotic oil. But we certainly aren’t at risk of running out any time soon. We have literally trillions of barrels of resources here in the USA that we know of but are unable to produce economically right now. That’ll change as the technology matures.

From: Tonybear61
09-Jan-19
Spend some time talking to folks who work oil fields. A few years ago talked to a worker who described oil so clean you could almost put it in your engine coming right out of the ground. Transporting that oil instead of the heavy crude is a huge reduction in safety and environmental concerns. Also a lot less energy to expend in refining it. That my friends is the future of that resource.Why spend time on wind, solar that without govt. subsidies doesn't provide as much energy (cradle to grave)? Gives us visual pollution, unnecessary bird deaths plus the panels use a lot of semi-precious metals, silane and phosgene (some very toxic gases) in the mfg. process?? No nuclear plant has been approved for construction in US since the 70s so good luck with that.

09-Jan-19
I think we will be just fine.

From: South Farm
09-Jan-19
We're running out of oil, acid rain is killing the Boundary Waters, there's a hole in the ozone and we're all going to fry, the glaciers are melting to the point the sea is rising and New Yorkers will drown anyday now, and California is going to break off and fall in the ocean.

Next "crisis" please!

From: HDE
09-Jan-19
I would say money and economics keeps us from recovering more and not so much as physics.

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19
HDE, yeah, that’s fair. We can overcome much of the physics but it isn’t economic to do so.

From: Trax
09-Jan-19
I don't think any segment is more volatile and at the same time interesting as the energy sector. Amazing how the financial power players can influence this market and how algorithmic trading has changed the game, for worse more than not. OPEC has always controlled the price of oil through production. As they lose relevance they also lose control. Fracturing has been a darling of the oil industry here and elsewhere, but will it last? Will it be improved upon and actually expanded in its use? Are there discoveries to be made inland right here in the 48 yet? (a very recent new discovery just made in the Gulf) Did Aubrey Mclendon kill himself or was it an accident? But I digress. All the talk lately has been about "peak oil". We are a long way from it as it sits right now...

From: HDE
09-Jan-19
Frac'ing has been around since the 1950's. As long as there are hydrocarbons in the ground, and can be extracted at a reasonable cost to you and I, it will be around for quite a while.

09-Jan-19
I have read that adjusting for inflation gasoline is cheaper now that at any time in the past.

09-Jan-19
BEG,

Great stuff! Question here, please don't laugh.

I know people disagree on the Earth's constant production of oil. I get with horizontal drilling, fracking etc, technology is giving us greater access.

Yet, it does seem like oil is found again without new technologies in wells once thought dry.

I have read that oil migrates. Here's my question, can the centripetal force caused by the Earth's rotation be forcing deep oil pools we did not know exist to migrate out, or rather up to these areas that have room to accept oil as they are empty now? Could this explain some of the new finds?

Thanks.

09-Jan-19
There is a limited amount of crude oil. It is the result of the compression of organic material over a long period of time. New crude oil is being created even today but we are using it up many, many times faster than it is being created even on a planetary scale. We are just getting better and better at wringing it out of the sponge......

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19
"I have read that oil migrates. Here's my question, can the centripical force caused by the Earth's rotation be forcing deep oil pools we did not know exist to migrate out, or rather up to these areas that have room to accept oil as they are empty now? Could this explain some of the new finds?"

Happy to answer the questions Frank! I know before I started working in the industry I knew pretty much nothing about the science behind the industry, so there's no dumb questions to me.

In short, it's pretty unlikely, and I'll try and explain why. Before I do though, recognize that there are many different types of oil reservoirs with many different characteristics - but while there maybe differences in source rock, charge mechanism, depositional setting, geological timeframe, etc which result in differences in rock type, rock quality, oil quality, etc, there are general commonalities between them.

When you look at the stratigraphy (ie, the stacked layers of rock in question) that hold sizable oil and gas reserves, it is a mix of rock that is permeable and impermeable rock. The fact of the matter is reservoirs of oil are generally always "boxed in" by impermeable rock that serves to trap the oil and create the accumulation of oil that will be produced. These walls of the reservoir allow oil to stay within the geologic bounds of the reservoir...but they also keep hydrocarbons out. So if there are deeper pools of oil, they will eventually run into a sealing barrier that stops there movement and serves to create the reservoir in the first place. In short, there geology wouldn't allow for it on the scale that I think you're thinking of.

What you are generally hearing about when people find oil in areas that were thought to be "dry" is a mixture of things happening. One of the ways this can be explained is in-line with what you are thinking, but on a smaller scale and the physics aren't related to centripetal forces. Often times wells will be producing in a smaller reservoir tied to a bigger reservoir. The well will drain the smaller reservoir faster than the bigger reservoir can replace it. Given time, however, things will equalize (oil that is under higher pressure will flow to areas that are depleted and under lower pressure). In most of these scenarios, it isn't necessarily new oil being discovered so to speak. It comes back to my comment that only a fraction of the oil in place is ever produced - in other words, people know the oil is there but there's uncertainty how much we can actually drain at times. So often times fields we think are tapped out will give up a little more oil if given time.

I'm not saying this is always what is happening in these scenarios, but it is more along the lines of this than some vast, unknown quantity of oil suddenly showing up as a surprise.

09-Jan-19
Man, you know your stuff!!

Thanks.

From: HDE
09-Jan-19
Directional drilling (aka horizontal drilling) has allowed the ability to tap into reservoirs that were unreachable at one time either by surface ownership issues, topography, municipalities, etc. The increased advances in hydraulic fracturing technologies, coupled with better drilling practices is what has "unlocked" these reserves increasing the total recoverable amount in place.

As you are able to produce more, the estimated reserve volume in place goes up. Also, horizontal laterals that may reach up to 2 miles in length expose more producable rock per wellbore increasing output volume at the wellhead. Instead of drilling 10 wells at a cost of $2MM each and producing 100 bopd, you now have 1 well producing the same acreage at a cost of $7.5MM and producing 1500 bopd.

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19
Thanks, Frank. My paycheck kinda depends on it haha

And Nate’s spot on as well. Again, this usually isn’t necessarily “new oil” from the sense that it wasn’t known about. But until technology allowed it to be unlocked, it was essentially worthless and new life was given to old fields.

As another example, we have literally trillions of barrels of oil that are trapped in shale in Colorado that have essentially never been commercially produced. One day we may crack the nut, but so far we haven’t really figured it out.

“Fracturing has been a darling of the oil industry here and elsewhere, but will it last? Will it be improved upon and actually expanded in its use? Are there discoveries to be made inland right here in the 48 yet? (a very recent new discovery just made in the Gulf) Did Aubrey Mclendon kill himself or was it an accident?”

Fracking will certainly be here to stay (as Nate pointed out it’s been around for a long time) and the technique is always being improved upon (it is already widely used in industry). But there are other technologies, in theory and in development, that may prove as equally transformative over the years. And there will no doubt be further discoveries in the lower 48, and other areas in the US and abroad that will keep oil and gas a relevant part of the energy mix for another century at least IMO. And I have no idea who Aubrey Mclendon is.

From: Trax
09-Jan-19
OK, I find it hard to believe someone in the energy sector related biz would not know of his legend but better bing it. Too much on him to put here.

From: bigswivle
09-Jan-19
Good stuff BEG

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19
Ah, the CEO of Chesapeake that killed himself after being indicted on antitrust charges. Didn’t recognize his name.

From: gadan
09-Jan-19
The idea that oil is result of decaying material is an old one. More geologists are beginning to accept new data that points to abiotic sources as Dirk and others have alluded to.

There will always be a need for oil. Most of us think only in terms of energy for electricity generation, heating, or gasoline and oil for cars, but crude is cooked down into solvents that are used in polymer synthesis. Polymers are what make everything we use today, including plastics, paints, adhesives, caulks and sealants, printing and packaging, paper, etc. Polymer is literally everywhere.

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19
Every single petroleum geologist I’ve talked to about it has rejected abiogenic oil generation as holding any potential for the industry (and I work with them every day). Every commercially viable reservoir being produced is biogenic in nature. Not saying abiogenic oil doesn’t exist, but it is certainly not featuring into the energy mix at all. Petroleum geologists base their decisions on biogenic processes. You’d be hard pressed to get anyone to test potential abiogenic oil reservoirs any time soon.

Again, I’m not saying the process doesn’t occur - I’m saying that none of the currently produced reservoirs are a result of abiogenic processes and I’m saying no major oil company is going to gamble billions of dollars on testing areas that might hold abiogenic oil anytime soon.

And thanks, bigswivle!

From: Bowfreak
09-Jan-19
Interesting BEG. The Russians have never been too concerned about this and from what I understand, they have prominent experts that believe in abiotic oil. Is that not true or is this just fake news?

Regardless....they love our left as they have kept a lid on oil production in the US for my lifetime at a minimum.

From: Rhody
09-Jan-19
What the abiogenic process is showing us, is that as technology increases, the ability of man to duplicate the process and create petro chemicals, essentially synthetic oil and fuel. When that process equals the cost of pulling it out of the ground, there will be a huge change in the price of crude on the downward side.

NOW,

all the major oil producing companies and countries do not want abiogenic theories or an aspect of creation by man just because of how crude is a world exchange product. So, you will see abiogenic theories poo pooed and not viable... follow the money trail....

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19

bigeasygator's Link
Hydrocarbons can certainly be generated by abiogenic processes. It’s a question of 1) are current deposits abiotic and 2) could we ever viably find and produce large quantities of abiotic oil? Much of the Soviet theory dates back to the 1950s and even held some weight until the 1980s. Much more is known about the process now. Feel free to dive into the attachment for a much more in depth review of the history of the theory.

All of the oil we produce can be explained by biogenic processes. Furthermore, the understanding of these geological and biogenic processes are what cause us to focus oil exploration in certain areas. Even then with a strong understanding of the processes at work - that is, having the right type of depositional environment for organic material (think algae and plankton moreso than dinosaurs) to accumulate, be buried by sediment, and transformed by pressure and time - exploration success is low. Basins that are targeted (Permian, Gulf of Mexico, etc) all have this geological story behind them and that is what geologists are looking for. Even if abiotic oil was created in sufficient quantities across the globe, given the randomness of where they might be located it’s questionable whether they’d even be found to be produced in the first place.

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19
Rhody, it’s exactly the opposite. All of the major companies are actively looking for alternative energy sources that are commercially viable, including producing oil in abiogenic ways.

From: Dirk Diggler
09-Jan-19
Bigeasy my theory is theres oil under every step we take and every foot of water we float. The question is how accessible is it? What say you?

From: bigeasygator
09-Jan-19
Sure, if you went from the place that you stand and drill a straight line to the Earth’s core, you’ll hit at least one molecule of hydrocarbon along the way. That’s a lot different than finding commercially viable hydrocarbons.

From: HDE
09-Jan-19
^^^ exactly. If E&P companies could extract a "dilithium crystal" for unlimited fuel and energy, they would. When I was production foreman, we used photovalics to power as much as we could as well as electricity on compressors and pump units to keep from having to use as much fuel gas. This is more widley used more and more to make wells more economic as they decline in production.

From: TD
09-Jan-19
The fact they are "actively looking" tells me there is likely some merit to it. I would not expect them to be throwing parades until they has things all wrapped up with patents and manufacture/marketing.... exclusive as much as possible.

From: HDE
09-Jan-19
Alternative energy sources = environmental awareness.

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