I know last year Go Hunt listed a particular elk unit in WY I wanted to hunt as a 100% chance to draw at my point level. I did not draw. This year a friend tells me that again it is listed as 100% chance of drawing at my point level. When looking at the raw data, I don't see the odds reflecting anything close to 100%. More like 50-60% assuming similar applicants in 2019. There were more point holders in 2018 that didn't draw at my point level than tags that were actually issued. Assuming only those people put in and the same number of tags there is no way its 100%. I hope I am wrong but it doesn't look like 100%. My question is....are things like this the norm with their odds or did I just happen on to an anomaly in their system or is it common that their odds are off?
So, if the unit you are looking at was 100% last year at, say 10 points, and 50% at 9 points, you could expect it to go to 100% at 11 points and 50% for 10 points this year.
Unless someone kills a good bull in that unit or puts out a video showing lots of good bulls and causes more people to put in with more points to drive the point requirement to draw up.
There were plenty of grizzly issues last year up in northern WY that may cause some of the top point holders to look to areas without big bears and might reduce points required for some of those units.
Thanks
I saw a few errors when I had the subscription, send them an email and they will usually respond. Or post the question on their website. For Wyoming there really should be no errors, so the issue might just be point creep, or GoHunt screwed up.
Treeline's Link
They listed what the odds were, in 2018, and call them 2019 odds. Therefore, the odds "were" 100% (probably), but actual odds for 2019 could be a long way from that. Rather than predict the "future odds", they use a timeline to show past point levels needed to draw. That's why I always preach you need to point pools to accurately know where you are in the point pool line.
That is the issue. When I read "2019 odds", I read it as a predictor. I think it would be much more clear if they said "Updated for 2019 with 2018 odds."
They can do it, I've talked to them about it. They chose not to and that’s fine but personally I'd prefer they were more up front with their paying customers. Posting "our 2019 draw odds are up" is a bit misleading.
If are unsuccessful in those two states then you will have 1 point after those draws when you check your point total but might easily be looking at the wrong point column (0 vs 1) as you review the draw stats and are planning for next year.
The websites that assist you to plan what you can draw rarely make this distinction clear so I am sure a lot of folks have flawed strategy each year where are overly optimistic by 1 point or overly pessimistic by 1 point.
Odds are predicted on all kinds of things. Someone could do the very same thing for drawing tags (Bob says it's done in Oregon) if they had the ability and time. There are no guarantees, but a capable statistician could come up with something pretty cool and elaborate. Regardless, I admit to being ignorant that they are just regurgitating last years odds. Granted it is a time saver to use their service but it is really not hard to interpret Wyoming's data. I'm assuming other states data may be more difficult to obtain or interpret. I have spreadsheets where I can sort for percentages to draw, weapon type, points, etc. that serve me just as well as the Go Hunt stuff. I could see it being a time saver if you had no interest in wasting a bunch of time digging through data though.
Go Hunt, Huntin’ Fool, Eastmans, Top Rut, etc, etc, etc all have statistics basted on previous year’s drawings.
Bowfreak, It sounds like you are below the 100% crowd and in the 50% group. Look at the bright side, last year all the guys with more points and half the guys with your number of points got out of your way! Now you just have to worry that there was not a bunch of publicity about how great that unit is to draw more guys in with more points!
I’m at a point level for elk in Wyoming that I can draw any type 9 but have been focusing on drawing a tag with no type 9 that I can get an archery stamp for to limit the number of hunters out there during archery season.
The top demand units in Wyoming have been very low potential to draw for a lot of years. A lot of guys with max points are getting tired of playing the game for a 2% or up to 20% chance of drawing one of those top units and dropping back to the second and third tier units. Throw in a video showing a crap ton of bulls and easy access somewhere and there will be shifts to those units.
Wyoming elk points have been going up at 1 point per year on the better hunts and about .5 points per year for the lower tier.
It’s a game and you just gotta play it if you ever want to win.
Very few drawings these days are not seeing the effects of point creep, particularly for those that take a lot of points to draw.
? Yogi Berra
I know of three serious griz attacks near me (Pinedale WY area) in the last few years. In all three cases the gentlemen were VERY lucky to have received only minor injuries, and without some VERY lucky quick shots they would've been killed or seriously mauled. NONE of these incidents made the papers. A fourth attack (on a group of hikers, one of whom shot the griz), did manage to make the papers.
That's just in my small part of the state and only what I've heard about. Extrapolate as you wish.
