Pat Lefemine's Link
There's a possibility cougars could contract it.
In response, my employer has cut dividend, cut other stock incentives, and cut our bonuses to zero (my bonus was typically 25-35% of my pay). There is still a lot of uncertainty, and areas of our company have begun laying people off and there's rumblings of more to come, though nothing is confirmed just yet.
This has impacted my plans in a few ways. This year I drew an antelope tag in NM and had a mule deer hunt in SD already paid for, so I'm going to go on those. Beyond that, I'm cutting discretionary spending on gear and what not and I'm not sure what my 2021 plans will hold - it all depends on what happens to things. Right now, I'm not 100% committed to any hunts past this year and it may stay that way for next year.
Like the yearly weather and what will the weather be for 2020, we will not know the effect of C-19 or the weather has on hunting as a whole, until next year after all of the 2020 hunts/weather are over. Some have predicted it will decrease the amount of hunters in the field, or hunters going out of state, or hunters applying for limited tags.
Ask me that same question this time next year, and I might have a good answer. my best, Paul
Fingers crossed things settle down, and we all have a good fall. Similarly crossed fingers one of the many vaccines hits and a year from now many have already had the vax and the economy is moving in a good direction again.
I still plan on elk hunting out west in September.
So that brings up a few things in regards hunting and demographics:
If you're healthy and under the age of 45, you don't have a lot to worry about as the death rate for this group is far less than 1%. If you're over 65, you really don't want to get this, especially if you have risk factors, the worst after age being BMI >39 and there's a fair amount of hunters in that weight range and/or age.
Will it slow anybody down? I pretty much agree with Pat's article. I think there's a chance that some blue states might cause problems. There will be some hunters that choose to curtail hunting to avoid contagion, but I think that number will be very small compared to people who just won't be able to afford to go out-of-state.
It's not affecting me (yet). I'm still working - more actually. I just bought a bunch of hunting stuff and booked 2 more bush flights because I've made 30% more money this year so far over last because I've had the opportunity to work more, but again, I'm in the minority there.
My main concern is that my transporters will fold or shut down because they're slow. I'm really afraid for my August sheep hunt because I need a small company to fly me out there and I really need to mail a lot of my hunting gear there in advance, which could screw me if they fold up operations.
There's still a bunch of draws that need to happen yet too and so there's always uncertainty with that.
Lastly, I do an out-of-state hunt with my dad every year and he turns 70 in August. This year, we were going to do a WY Pronghorn hunt. If I took him out-of-state and he got sick and something bad happened, that would be beyond tragic and my mom would never forgive me because she's already not too keen on hunting in the first place. So I'm not sure what to do there and I have to decide if I'm going to put in for the tag or not. Or maybe change plans and take him to NE to deer hunt in November instead...
My clairvoyance is poor so it's tough to make decisions when you really need a good picture of what's going to happen in the future and things are changing so rapidly.
"If you're healthy and under the age of 45, you don't have a lot to worry about as the death rate for this group is far less than 1%. If you're over 65, you really don't want to get this, especially if you have risk factors, the worst after age being BMI >39 and there's a fair amount of hunters in that weight range and/or age."
Isn't that more or less the same as the "regular" flu, that kills upwards of 60K people each year with nary a peep from anyone?
We were advised to put off turkey hunting for several weeks here in PA. WTF could be more social distanced than turkey hunting?
My wife's a Nurse Practitioner in a pediatric clinic, and is performance based on her pay. She's cut back to 60% and it is going to have repercussions on her pay for probably 6-10 months, as she'll have to make up any deficit in her performance. She went from 25-28 kids a day to 0 in just a week. That sucks pretty big
I still plan a WY elk hunt this fall, and am hoping to draw somewhere else too.
I still have an RSA hunt scheduled, but that's pretty tenuous. . . . I expect an email any day, honestly.
Took a 20% hit on investments in a two week period. Glad I'm no where near retirement age. . . .
Covid has not affected my work much since most of our work is on "essential" energy projects (oil/gas pipelines, transmission lines, renewable energy, etc.). We are working from home which can be hard for an old schooler who likes to interact with people but we are still doing the bio field work...never stopped.
Still planning on a September Idaho elk hunt if they don't close the season to out-of-staters. I don't see Covid stopping our annual mule deer hunt in western KS. Maybe I will be able to take Habitat for Wildlife (Frank) up on that MO deer hut invitation he so graciously extended.
I have never used an outfitter but I feel bad to them and those who had hunts planned. It just sucks to see fellow hunters with go through tough stuff.
Living 30 miles out of town has its merit...we basically haven't changed anything. The only thing affected so far, has been the 3D Shoots, My Wife and I had planned to attend quite a few.
That's just me...my personal opinion: Trying to shelter a healthy population from a virus with a 99 percent recovery rate, is fruitless, and stupid. Never before, have we shut down the entire economy, for a simple virus...or "tracked" a virus for that matter. Anyone that doesn't see a media-driven agenda to kill the current economy by spreading fear daily, is going through life with blinders on. Just an opinion, from a Medical Professional with 40 years experience.
Option 1: try to hide from this virus, only to be injected with a form of it later on when they supposedly develop a vaccine
Option two: Let healthy Americans get straight up Covid (while continuing to shelter the elderly/compromised) , and go back to work (many of us probably have already had it anyway).
I'm an "Option two" kind of guy...best option by far, to develop and maintain a healthy immune system ;^)
Great piece! I design and build kitchens....I'm expecting a slower balance of 2020, but with a few investments in technology, we are experiencing a pickup in new calls the past couple weeks. As you said, we've been through 9/11 and 2008 and here we are. Adapt, continue to work hard and I believe we will be ok.
I believe we will be travelling domestically without prohibitive restrictions by September. Friends have sent pics from various airplanes and airports. Does not seem to be difficult to travel within our borders even now.
Hunting? Colorado elk is all for me, besides local whitetails. And morels, which don't really exist. Anywhere. You guys and all your pretty mushroom pics?? Fake....
At this point, there are more unknowns than knowns. It will be a while before we really know the truth and how it will impact game momentum and possibly the outcome of game.
1) This spring with so many people in ‘stay at home’ mode, there was a big increase in shed hunting and even before shed season started.
2) People are still being layed off. With states relaxing The travel restrictions, there will be lots more people hunting in the OTC areas - from archery all the way thru the rifle seasons. Just to get out and hopefully put some meat in the freezer.
All of this will affect hunting - Immediately. Guaranteed.
"Isn't that more or less the same as the "regular" flu, that kills upwards of 60K people each year with nary a peep from anyone?"
There is not "nary a peep." We spend millions upon millions of dollars on an annual Influenza vaccine campaign every year for a marginal (40%ish) effectiveness.
So, for people under 45, yeah, it's similar to a 'regular' flu. Regular flu kills babies every year. But overall, this is far worse than the regular "influenza" that we deal with each winter. Influenza has a death rate of 0.1-0.6%, depending on how bad the strain is that year. COVID appears to be 1.4% now over all ages and much higher for older folks, per the NYC antibody study. Normally, about 40,000 people, on average, die of Influenza every year, although it bounces between 25K and 60K and sometimes a bit higher. But that's all year and the flu season is from October to April (7-8 months). This has killed 90K in under 2 months (with the country shut down for most of that) and NYC, where it's been the most prevalent, is "only" at 20% exposure, per this study.
It's a nasty virus and while I'd still agree that we have to move on and can't stay locked in our homes for the next 18 months, it should not be compared with the flu because it's something different and much worse.
Here's the math: It takes 2/3 of a population to develop herd immunity. 2/3 of the U.S. population is 220 million people. 1.4% of 220 million is 3 million and that's if people have adequate access to care.
Right now in Mexico, Uruguay, and Brazil, people are dying because they can't get quality care that we're getting here because their medical systems are over run. The entire idea of the stay-at-home order was to keep the medical system from being over run and while I can understand that back in late March, we have more data now and we have to realize that we're not going to be able to make this go away, no matter how long we stay at home.
Honestly, I think those at risk should be advised to avoid contact with those who aren't (although it's a free country and they shouldn't be held criminally liable) and those who aren't at great risk should go back to work/school with the best precautions we have - honestly, wearing a mask is no big deal; making an effort to social distance is no big deal. It'll slow it down a tad and we can get on with our lives.
Back to hunting, I'm 41 and I'll be flying several times for hunting this fall so long as I'm allowed to and it won't harm my conscious at all doing so, although I will wear a mask when in public and try and keep my hands clean, etc.
Honestly, I just want to get it and get it over with because I don't want to get it and then be out in the Brook's Range by myself and start to show symptoms. I got antibody tested last week: Negative.
It’s been crushing to me and my small business that we have built up over the last 6 years to have it pretty much running itself with some very talented staff. It all disappeared over the course of 3 days in March and it’s a type of business that will struggle to recover and most likely won’t.
Never been depressed before but thinking that’s what I’m feeling now.
I understand the concern and realize that we should take precautions but I'm convinced the media is whipping up a hysteria for ratings and to assist the Dems. They would rather wreck the economy than see Trump reelected. Every news cast is wall to wall covid 19. Every story has a virus angel. It's over the top.
I'm hunting at home this year and still buying points for future hunts. Hopefully we'll be back to normal soon. Good luck out there.
My work life has changed considerable and permanently. I have traveled between 42-48 weeks a year for the last 10 years. I will reduce my travel to less than 10 weeks a year in the future.
All of my boards meetings have already been scheduled for Zoom for all of 2021. That alone will eliminate 12 weeks of travel.
I suspect air travel will never be the same. I expect many business meetings will be done virtually in the future. We have already invested in robots to do manufacturing line audits and are working on virtual reality training tools.
The virus situation has created the opportunity to imagine and prepare for the future. Our business is healthy and so are all of my employees, ( around 1500). The virus has claimed 5 employee family members and I had one personal friend that passed away.
As Pat correctly points out, the view in the virus is very different depending on where you are sitting.
Please stay safe.
Who knows just how long it takes us to recover economically and what happens when cases start spiking again in late fall.
Life is a gift from God and a vapor that lasts just a little while. I intend to live my life to the fullest while I have breath.
I have an Alaskan moose hunt scheduled for September and naturally am very concerned about that one. Travel restrictions could throw the whole thing in the toilet. And while Alaska itself looks to be pretty safe at this point I don't relish the thought of boarding a commercial flight right now. On the plus side booking that flight was a lot cheaper than I would have expected and airline policies on refunds are reassuring in that I'm not going to lose that money if I can't make the trip.
I had originally planned to apply in Iowa this year but we decided to put that one off. Most likely the rest of my fall will consist of hunting here at home. I watch the numbers daily and keep hoping that the recent slight downward trends accelerate. I want to see the country get back to work - this is destroying the dreams and lives of too many. I just hope people continue to use common sense and stay as safe as possible. Reports from the bar scene here in Wisconsin last weekend make me really concerned though. There are a lot of people for whom common sense is apparently not an option.
I have New Mexico bear and deer (draw) hunts lined up that are less than an hour from the house. As long as the family is healthy, I will be spending significant time in the field for those hunts. Right now, I have the entire 15 day January archery deer season off from work. Working from home has had it's pros and cons for getting into the field. The work schedule is more flexible, but child care has been a lot more difficult. In addition to the in state hunts, I am also planning a week of Texas whitetail hunting. Things would have to get really bad to stop that hunt, as my buddy and I are able to drive to that hunt with almost no human interaction.
With respect to applications being down, we actually saw the exact opposite here in New Mexico. As has happened the last several years, we set a new record for applications. The local news ran stories on new applicants that decided to apply as a means of providing for their family. Recent food supply chain issues have people rethinking the home grown, harvested, killed self-sufficient mentality that so many hunters have ingrained in their very nature.
Although not a frequent poster, I've hung out on Bowsite for at least 20 years. I'd be happy to pay a premium membership if that is what Pat decides is required to keep Bowsite healthy and prosperous moving forward.
Early On during the China Virus hit I started several threads hear trying to warn folks in all outdoor bow hunting world to do what you can to take this serious. I think those threads could have got our bow bretheren here thinking and planning instead of reacting. A shame really.
Early 2020 was not doing just very well. Its was Historically the Top of the World! When I saw this the Third Virus outta China quickly jump to Japan/ Korea I knew right then it was on and it would crush world markets. I sold it all, in Jan the entire Portfolio of 35yrs, poof gone. As I knew with the march of the Wuhan would come I knew the markets would freak and they did, March 16th and I bought my Financials Back and some new ones that the POTUS himself was telling us the GVT would use.
Retired on GVT pension and the Wuhan has really messed up this world but I tried to look thru the event and help my family out. It worked.
I took it very serious. Still am but the data does not bear out what we and companies have done to themselves. Hunting will be fine, outfitters will use work arounds. Some folks in hunting industries will close up just like some folks will die because of the CV19.
My hunts will go. Have my high country pard in ID and MT right now scouting checking roads and trails for winter/ spring damage. Lots of elk and plenty bulls spotted already. Sound be good fall hunting.
Keep yer chin up bowmen.
While we did have to close our store, we were able to continue with online order fulfillment and delivery. We adapted to the new situation and made some significant changes and as a result, that part of our business has grown significantly and will likely change the way we do things forever. We are hoping to come out of this stronger than we were before it started.
This will be the first year that I can remember that I will not be going on a hunt. I had an Africa hunt booked for September that fell through and right now don't have the confidence to book anything else for the immediate future. Will focus on getting the new property fixed up, hunting PA and NY whitetails, and maybe finally get down to MD to try for sika deer.
Once the smoke clears it will be time to burn some points and get the rest of the bucket list taken care of.
On the flu v covid thing. It's not close if we apply the same approach. The flu death toll is based on a metric. This is really only talked about by epidemiologists, and frankly, I'd never have known if my wife (was an epidemiologist, now a provider) didnt explain it to me... and then I read this paper the other day that explains further.
The cliff notes (Ike, correct this cliff note if it's wrong) is that flu deaths are calculated by taking the known deaths and multiplying by almost 6 to get a value.
For example, if 40K people are listed as dead from the flu it's actually more like 6-7K (if counted the same way COVID19 cases currently are counted. This is due to a host of legit reasons. But due to lots more data and knowledge of the illness (Influenza vs. SARS-CoV2-2019), these calculations can be made.
The article linked from JAMA is the best one I've seen to describe this in really straight forward terms.
End point though, is that COVID19 is a LOT worse than the normal seasonal influenzas we have dealt with for a long time, and as Ike noted, its really bad news for certain age groups and health status's.
That does not mean re-opening shouldnt be happening, or that it shouldnt be going forward. Just that the comparison to the flu is not close, COVID19 is a lot more dangerous.
I'll add some "insider" info since I work for one of those NY based manufacturers of hunting/ shooting sports equipment.
During March and April we saw demand for crossbows and airguns spike. If inventory was not cleared out, it was already accounted for. Customer service was literally fielding questions about using crossbows and airguns for home defense.... Of course at that time all NY gun shops and big box stores had lines backed up to purchase any firearm available. I wouldn't be surprised to see an influx of crossbows, airguns and firearms for sale after the dust settles.
Good luck to those who this hit hardest. I was able to remain employed from home...and for that it am very thankful.
I realize there will be far ranging effects on our economy and have concerns for that. As far as my ability to hunt in my home state, that will not be effected as the excellent leadership of our state does not consider hunting and fishing a risk factor. I do have expectations of a bit more hunting pressure this year but that's ok as our public land pressures here are pretty light.
I do feel for the folks who live and hunt in states that are less friendly to the hunting community. And are also so stupid to believe that a few people in the woods on a hunt somehow violates their social distancing regulations. I for one am ready to see things open up and return to our Constitutional Rights. I hope for all, health and prosperity in the coming year. For those who disagree, that's ok, you have that right but I will continue on as I have always done. God bless and good hunting to all.
And yet we still have not "done enough" according to many on the left.....
WRT sick and dead.... I haven't seen much of anything here....in fact the hospital is EMPTY and they are literally trolling for any kind of elective possible, a buddy was called out of the blue for a hip replacement they were CONTEMPLATING before all this hit. He actually negotiated a better deal to have it done now.
Outside of NYC from all I see and hear it's much the same across the country. Take a city so tightly packed folks essentially have to mud wrestle with people every day and that's a tragedy. But the stats I've seen say they account for more than the entire rest of the US combined. The economic devastation and everything associated with it will be FAR greater than the virus, here anyway. Far greater.
Add to the mix psycho power mad control freaks and paranoid delusionals that are "taking charge" running some states and they will have made things far worse than they needed to, "Hey! Are you walking on the wet sand or the dry sand!" and " you're under arrest for selling black market tomato seeds...." And pot stores are promoted to essential services.....
I'm with K on this one. Hindsight is going to be pretty eye opening as to how this went down..... who really is using the facts and science and who really has the best interests of the country rather than their own consolation of power as a priority.
WRT hunting.... I'm hunting. In any and every way available to me at every opportunity.
Its funny. You make a big call correct and you got guys sending you legal sized registered mail. Same guys who would let you flush you lifes work down the virus hole. Ken Fisher ..... The Wuhan Kid did it the dirt Soljah way!!
You could of subscribed to Ken Fishers Portfolio strategy for 20yrs and you still be worth 1/4 what you were in Jan 2020! Using you gut senses from years traveling chitholes worldwide may have just this time worked in spades.
Did not hurt to be overseas on 13 March coming home to mainland that really secured in my mind when bottom would be. Was three days later i pulled the trigger!
Here in PA 70% of our fatalities were in nursing homes. This was after our governor and man/lady health secretary mandated that nursing homes had to take in "medically stable" COVID residents. Result? 3,100 out of 4,600 deaths were in nursing homes. Yet, prisoners are released so as no to contract it.
What we do know is that far more people will see their livelihoods damaged or destroyed by the reaction, than will actually die from complications from the disease.
Where in the USA were people with C-19 put in nursing homes intentionally?
August? It'll kill over 100K by July and probably by mid June... 7 day average is still 1000/d and we're at 93.5K already...
Still, it isn't going anywhere. We can't stay in our houses for the next 12-18 months. We just need to do what we can to keep it out nursing homes. It's sad, but this thing is going to end the lives of many of our elderly.
"Where in the USA were people with C-19 put in nursing homes intentionally?"
Here in PA. 70% of our deaths were in nursing homes. Id say a fair amount are directly attributable to our governor and his man/lady health secretary directives (read that as mandate) to take in "medically stable" COVID patients.
Bunch of chitty Govs and Mayors who have no bidness running waste treatment facilities much less states and metropolitan area cities. One look at a competent CEO look no further than FL!
He knew the ramifications of his age populations and protected them.
Turned folks away right in I 95. Told em No entry. Now all ya Civil Libs dont get bent outta shape over that. Save up for when your nutty Govs line you up for mandatory Wuhan Virus Vaccinations!
Best thing you can do is take that Virus $ the Gvt gave you and spend it all in your locale small businesses. Or book a hunt!
That's a really good thing I think
gonna borrow that if ya don't mind. Be right back wid it....
What this virus has exposed is how ridiculously unhealthy we Americans are. 42% obesity and all the underlying conditions that come with it.
Governor DeSantis should get a medal. Cuomo is pathetic. Yet look at how the media has the narrative backwards. Disgusting.
Problem was most these Dem Govs believed this crap.
Was very very clear what would happen. Actually I thought the Wuhan Virus would be more lethal. But never imagined the GVT and Industry would do this to themselves. Gvt spend some much cash that 's not theirs. Those Trillions will come out our pockets eventually. Gvt does not make $ it's just collects it from us folks!
I agree we have screwed ourselves much more than this virus has. I also agree that it been wonderful that the medical world has had break through's in every other area of medicine as no one is passing away from anything but the CV-19.
I dont know that anyone has been able to say with certainty that younger people who generally do better with COVID19 do not spread it. Which is a challenge with this bug.
There has to be a steady re-opening, you cant stay locked down for ever, and that was not the point - preventing health care collapse like ITA or ESP was the goal and that seems to have been accomplished. Now it's just good care and working to manage things so no massive second wave takes off and we dont have to deal with this economically to the same degree again.
Our county has suffered, just like every other county. But my personal take on this is that the quick statewide shutdown is the one reason so many rural counties were spared. I won't speculate on a death count here, except to say it couldn't get any lower than zero.
They are restricted by me but, someone still has to get supplies to them. I'd rather keep it it out of our county all together. (We are still one of only five MN counties without a confirmed case) Just an hour ago, I had to set up a video conference for my mother with her cardiologist. She doesn't do smartphones or computers so, I'm the only option for that. If myself and my entire household were told to go back to a pre-Covid way of life, there would be nobody for my folks to safely rely on. Call me selfish if you want but, I'm not ready to kick the elderly to the curb just so you can go to the bar.
Since when does quarantining the healthy make any sense? It's not about safety, it's about control.
Who here wants to tell “[email protected] Fort” he can’t leave his house and go hunting? I’m talking about the millions of independent people, healthy, living on their own. People of any age (of majority) should be able to make their own decisions about their life until they cede it to someone else.
As you age you realize more and more that nobody beats the game of life so quality of last years is what matters. Being able to hug your kids and grand kids is way more important than living and extra 19 months in a lock down. Nothing is easy about all this Covid stuff except where it came from. C
PS: My wife and I have lost both our parents from 1986 to 2019 and each one went a different way but all four died with loved ones around and dignity. These nursing home folks (or anyone in hospitals) dying without being able to say good bye to family is cruel and will be looked back on as a major failing. I don’t know the solution but we must find one.
I googled American deaths each year and the current number is 2.8 million. We can not change that fact or our mortality. Risk made America.
DJT smart to bump up on that stuff. Take it like Doxy so YOU DONT GET IT. Think the dose is less for a daily prophaltic .Taking long term just like Doxy aint good but its better than carrying Malaria the rest of your life. I took azz loads of Doxy and Mephlaquin (1/week) working in SE, SW Asia, s and Central America and S. Pacific, pill a day. No Malaria.
Just is a bad deal folks can carry it and infect others with zero signs of it. Hope they make a breathalizer tester for it or a licky tab like a pool test kit that shows if you got it, had it or are clean. They you can talk about what to do with the three groups.
I can bet these big Insurance Companies are having Grande talks about Wuhan liability for all business, sporting games, concert halls, etc, etc. They aint gonna cover Wuhan liability anyway so open the damn place up. Lot of this lockdown by these places is drivin by liability issues. Good luck with worrying about that! Big Insurance not covering chit to do with the Wuhan so why would some concert promoter be worried his Libility Insurer wont cover his event? That liability issue needs to get fixed or we not getting back to any normal anytime soon! I can expect DJT will have to fix Big Insurance's little red wagons like everything else. They not going to do it themselves or loose any their own $.
I can see where Ohio's Gov was very worried and cautious. How many big cities does Ohio have, 7-8 ? Think he will pull back some now.
This has nothing to do with health and safety. It was a crisis that was used to see how compliant the American people are. Apparently they are pretty damn compliant.
Full disclosure. Both my wife and oldest daughter work in a hospital. They are on the front lines so to speak.
How low, can you go? :^/
Since then, I have a hard time [not] lumping some of [you] in with that mentality. It took everything I had not to beat that man to a bloody pulp and put a "survival of the fittest" sign on his body.
I wouldn't put anything past MLG from NM...
I think a lot of the knee-jerk reactions from government was a lot about preventing an outbreak instead of dealing with an outbreak, such as they had to back east. No one wants to get pinned with not being safe enough. In government, you rarely get nailed for erring on the side of safety. But if you make the tough decision and are right, you don't get nearly the credit you deserve compared with the crucifixion you get if you gamble and lose. In 2020, society has become so risk-averse that no one can ever do what needs to be done anymore and there's no such thing as breaking a few eggs to make an omelet anymore.
Is that the same Gov. that sent all those pour souls back to the nursing homes and was just on TV with his brother Fredo last night making fun of the testing process?
Yea , I'd listen to him. WTH
stay safe in spite of the idiots running your state
I’m worried for my business, and my mother, and I speak to and listen to as many of the smartest people I know . But I can’t put all of my thoughts in a single narrative yet.
Life is way, way more complicated than we like to think.
What do you mean by this? You have a better understanding of this than physicians? It seems like a rather haughty statement and screams Dunning-Kruger. I appreciate your service to your country and your community, but what medical understanding does that give you when the medical community is struggling to catch up in understanding?
And even more, you realize that it's the politicians that are making all the calls here, right? The medical system and physicians are not running things or making decisions.
Thanks for your humility! Life is complicated for sure. We will probably always disagree on what the best approach should have been, the old saying about hindsight...
I do agree we must find balance and begin to reopen while doing our best to protect the most vulnerable. That won't be easy and disagreements no doubt will continue to be the norm.
I am glad I am not one of those that had to decide the best approach. Taking the extreme measures we did might have been key to impress on citizens the importance of behaviors that reduce risk and spread. It is totally different when going out now, and I wonder if folks would have adjusted if they were not convinced this is an absolute threat? Those adjustments no doubt have helped reduce transmission rates.
Reading through all of these posts is informative. Reading bright guys trying to compare the mobility of a rioter in LA to the virus moving quietly and invisibly through the globe for example just doesn't explain why our reaction to the threat was too extreme for me. We have more knowledge today than just 90 days ago.
I remain concerned, the southern hemisphere approaching winter may give us an idea of what we can expect this Fall. Rates are spiking in Brazil and other South American countries. This ain't over, but I also agree with ground hunter that we have to face it.
As for my hunting, my annual bear hunt in MB was rescheduled, and the rest of my hunting is local. Robin and I have been fortunate, and our expenses dropped considerably during the shutdown. I have tried to spend more on things like ordering arrows, a bow case etc to try and help other businesses with our flexibility.
We are in a financial position to both retire fortunately. I asked Robin to do so to protect her, but we both realized we are not emotionally ready to give up our careers that bring us much satisfaction.
We have no doubt we will not only survive this as a nation, but come out the other end stronger and with new knowledge that will help us better deal with the next challenge.
Blessings to all of you that have had your lives turned upside down. We hope the current challenges can help better unite us as a nation.
You can bet Charlies post will stay up.
Here's another Fauci (the self proclaimed end all on epidemology) miss step. NOW, CDC a truly left leaning $ eating machine. They now say "yer not getting the Wuhan off surfaces". Why would they even bother to say this? Is it even true? I would not listen to this guy and POTUS has dumped him as drum beater changing his expert opinion as seasons or wind changes. Guy is a snake oil salesman hunting for the Holy Grail of Vaccine Patents .... The Wuhan Wonder Drug. But. . . . . why would he do that? It would be to simple to make a vaccine that would stop this Virus cold. Oh Yes, the hard part is to make a vaccine that only works for a year or better yet a seasonal vaccine so Pharma has to billions of doses biannually. Now that's the difficult part. Would give Fauci the keys to my Vets medicine locker much less the access to the free worlds labs on the GVT dime.
Not sure whose been turned upside down unless you live in a big city (a choice) or you have a Dem GOV or Mayor whose thinks their the Phoenix . Michigan, I really fell for you all but...... you folks handed the keys to the state to three mad women! That cant be corrected however! I have not changed much of anything this year. I do usually shoot Archery all over USA March- Aug. Still been shooting but competition with warm bodies has been slim! My fall hunts and tags are paid for. Scouting got dome this month. Plenty elk in the drainages I hunt, wolves been thinned real good by mother nature and a 6.5mm in those areas. Hoping for an early cold snap and bloody arra's.
Terrorism is real, a threat to civilization, and needs to be met with fierce and expensive force. Unfortunately, the severity of the threat leads to misplaced resources and "Security Theater", which isn't really all that helpful, but keeps people mindful of the risk.
Likewise, COVID is most certainly a threat, with -- for now -- unknown potential for harm from both life-threatening mechanisms and political destabilization. The initial threat was met with "everything we've got" ... and now we're having trouble adjusting ... shedding ineffective strategies and capitalizing on effective ones.
That's human nature. It's also human nature to see things like the GWoT as "black-or-white" ... we either "kill 'em all" or we're isolationist peackniks.
Likewise, with COVID, I'm tempted to "join" the hawks or the doves, but I know the answer lies with neither, because both are populated with people having motivations other than solving the original problem.
How will this effect me? Economically, for sure. Personally, perhaps. But the worst thing is what I see it is doing to my country: exposing our inability to think dynamically, and our predisposition to entrench ourselves rather than adjust to a moving target.
Has this has become nothing more than "bugle or cow call?" ... as if one OR the other are the answer ... when the real answer is FAR more nuanced.
Let me make a comparison!
In Mich by Order of Queen.
“ You can not flee your city to your UP cabin but I will stuff you a School Gym with 300 strangers”
You need to the DJT Admin come in and fix that nuthouse.
Great follow-up post IMHO sir! Your wording is perfect. We need to be flexible and adjust, balancing the sanctity of all lives, or I should say doing our best to try.
It is easy to criticize what we did with hindsight. I remember early on most experts were claiming this was the "real deal", even articles on the end of human presence. As we learned more we realized the accuracy of doomsday narratives were entirely suspect. Maybe the press did not allow the voices speaking against the current to be heard? What I do agree with you on entirely is that situations like this are not black and white, life is too often more complicated than that.
I would submit that it is just as selfish to expect everyone to stop everything to cater to their fears, to "do your part and save lives" for an illness that so far has proven to be an issue for some but not for most. It is also just as selfish, maybe more so, to expect people to give everything up and compromise their kids' futures for whatever plans they may have had for one event in the long history of human events.
A lot of us on here have lost a parent, or both. The one truth is though, the day after their death and the day after their funeral, the sun rose just the same and life went on. In fact, life did not stop for everyone else. Those few days for some of us may have been put on pause, but everyone else's didn't. During this event, people are experiencing for the first time what some of us have already experienced, an untimely death of someone close, in the context of my post, a parent. The sun will come up the next day. Life will go on and it has not stopped for everyone else. The bad trade off is that millions of peoples' lives have been compromised because of an event for untimely deaths of other people.
The virus is real. The fallout from mass mismanagement and polarized politics is inexcusable. Some states got it right, others didn't. In fact, you can pretty much see the poor leadership and plans executed by blue state governors that show to have led from behind.
This election year is crucial, just as the past few have been. Good luck to anyone with hunt's lined up. As you're out in the hills, don't forget to make time to vote this fall - the ability to continue to hunt may very well depend on it.
But you..... you get your butt out there and make sure my Amazon stuff gets delivered, my cell service and internet are good, I have food and make sure that store never runs out of toilet paper again...... as long as we all walk in the same direction.... you are not essential, but MY needs are.... you're ok, we can blindly ignore some risks.
This flippin world isn't just nuts..... it's EMBRACING crazy..... and seemingly those who are the most tightly wrapped among us are running it.... The sunshine kills this stuff in seconds..... but make sure YOU stay locked up inside, say those with a sudden taste of control and power....
Yeah, science and logic..... WRT doctors, a great many HAVE come out and said what they are seeing is the "cure" is more damaging than the disease. They get censored by the powers that be for not following the official control freak dogma.
What is really scary IMO is not even the virus. It's already gone far beyond that. Green New Deal legislation included in covid relief bills? 80 million in relief to.... Planned Parenthood? Airline emissions standards? And it's coming clear for many they have a vested interest in making sure the country is in the worst possible shape come November. It's not the country or it's people they care about. It's control and power.
Just wait until you see the NEW agencies (agencies that will be larger than TSA many times over and I'm sure will work for free...) that they are trying to start up along with MANDATORY personal tracking apps and other "public safety measures". Because the goal posts haven't just moved a dozen times, they don't even pretend they are on the field anymore. Because now we are told we can't open up until we can trace every citizen 24/7 where they go, what they are doing and with who. A literal police state by any measure one wants to use. Because there are no rights or freedoms that can't be trampled on if cloaked in "public safety".
I ain't walking in any flippin one way shopping lane, much less this BS. I used to think this "civil war" talk was just rhetoric. Now I'm not so sure. People are fed up with this crap. There are already little mini civil wars across the country. They push this much harder and the backlash, lets call it "civil disobedience", is going to shock them. Lets get back to that four letter word "work" already....
Wait til the Berniista’s and the Free Free Free AOC bunch get stuffed at virtual convention!
Glad yer finally seeing the world as it is too TD.
KPC Know you on other hand you may need to topple that Michigan Monarchy. Cuz its Fakin Koo Koo up in that AO!
Yer Gov trying hard for a mud match with Abraham's for Slow Joe's VP. They don't know Joe is going take that Mayor of Atlanta if she be of scandal free blood.
Dont matter either way Nov 3rd half this nation be ready to fight. Hope the national loser party has there chit in one sack!
Good take HDE.
Unfortunately, IMO, the ball of twine is just beginning to unravel. Psychologists and philosophers have long held that in absence of legitimate challenge, humans will manufacture chaos. The perversity and damage potential of stated chaos has the capacity to be wholly unbound. This is the experiment we find ourselves involved.
Me, I'm looking forward to the VA Spring squirrel season. I'm still building points in AZ and I'm reconceptualizing the manner in which I venture out of state. For instance, I've come to love hunting Alaska but I can see a scenario where my next "bear hunt" will be a bush flight and a fishing trip...No worries, though, there's nothing we can't endure with a smile on our faces.
Winners: Big Box Companies (owned by outa staters)
Losers: Mich State's small businesses (owned and run by residents)
Yeah, KPC the unintended consequences of putting her in Gov Mansion is glaring.
I didn't have any plans to go out of state this year for hunting anyway so, my hunting season won't be affected. My longest drive to a hunting spot is 12 miles. I'm lucky in that regard.
Now back to the new community forum...
One other thing it will likely do is increase competition for the thinner dollars available. We may notice the prices for almost everything hunting related stay stagnant or perhaps even drop. It’s not confined to hunting of course. I just bought a new 2020 pickup and (between dealer markdowns and manufacturer incentives) I bumped $11k off the sticker. I wouldn’t be shocked to see the future prices of some expensive hunts get cut, or at least stop rising yearly. It could be a buyer’s market for those with the means.
Land of the Free Home of the Brave Pricing
Think that won't affect hunting?
LMAO......Look at the assault we allowed on our liberties because of COVID and the needless fear surrounding it. We showed our government just how compliant we are.
I think many levels of government are keeping the Covid hyped up to cover up and distract from their own levels of incompetence and mishandling from start to finish.
Could very well see Darwinism in an excellerated form with the anti crowd.
There's been 30,000 deaths in NY state.
The population of NY State is 19.45 million people.
30,000 is 0.15% of 19.45 million.
The population of the USA is 330,000,000.
If the entire country was caught up to New York State... 0.15% of 330,000,000 is 500,000 Americans dead.
And...New York is not done with COVID. The latest antibody test study in New York extrapolated to 20% of NYC and 7% of the entire state, infected thus far.
Again, this is NOT another flu.
Again, we cannot stay in our homes for 18 months and have to face this one way or another.
But those of us who believe we shouldn't just keep kicking this can down the road and destroy life as we know it lose relevance and legitimacy when we ignore the numbers and call this "another flu," because it is not another flu. 100K dead officially on Tuesday and a small minority of America has been exposed.
This has the potential to kill well into 7 digits and we need to be able to not only agree on that, but agree that we've got to move on to a world beyond that number.
Unless we get an effective treatment or vaccine very soon, it's going to keep spreading because America is done with this BS lockdown.
At least let the young people who don't have a high death rate from it get it and have at least part of the American people/economy move on.
I drew a Montana deer and I've an antelope tag coming too. My 2020 hunt is already 100% paid with my outfitter for september. I already changed the schedule for my camp to the end of september but I'll take a final decision mid july and I'll see if we'll have the right to travel again.
The Montana DNR told me that they are not going to make any special cancel procedure if I want to get a 100% refund. The only way is to cancel before the end of July.
I've another hunt schedule in November. I really hope the world will be better by this autumn.
We do not need to choose between death by Covid-19 or by shutdown and economic ruin. We can avoid most of both, but not by advocating extremist views and policies going either direction. Some compromise is in order, but the nation is so consumed by partisan politics....compromise is interpreted by many as weakness or failure.
Churchill said something like "Never waste a good crisis." We can dependably expect our politicians to use the pandemic to their benefit, or to their adversary's disadvantage. It rather disgusts me to see so much energy expended into partisan warfare when it could really be used to combine ideologies and achieve progress toward a confident and healthy nation.
"At least let the young people who don't have a high death rate from it get it and have at least part of the American people/economy move on."
Bars, beaches, pools and parties are now the great petri dish which will show us the way forward. Or maybe not.
Nearly half of all the US deaths are in nursing homes and assisted living.
World wide deaths are currently around 350K.
Ike, you say NY has 30K deaths, I see less than 24K currently.
"As far as limited entery tags, most of the draws took place already and my guess is the applications are down."
Pat, your guess is wrong in Colorado, and I suspect elsewhere. Hunting applications and fishing licenses have both surged in 2020, here. IIRC, there were over 15K more big game applications than in 2019.
The pandemic disrupted our annual month-long May vacation in Florida. I skipped down there solo, anyway, for a week of tarpon fishing, but it wasn't the same without the family and friends who usually join us. I also have a Canadian fishing trip scheduled in late June that is currently up in the air. Who knows how this will affect hunting season, my crystal ball doesn't look that far ahead.
Financially, we haven't been impacted too badly. Our retirements accounts have climbed back to just a few percentage points from their previous highs. I also capitalized on some ridiculously under-valued stock after the markets crashed, which has done amazingly well during the market recovery.
In the end, I think antibody testing will show that this virus was around long before it became a media and political fiasco in the US. My buddy, who manages a large Inn on Sanibel Island, told me he thinks his entire staff had C19 in February. He said, employees who hadn't missed a day of work in 5 years, suddenly became sick and stayed home for 7-10 days from it. Infection rates will prove to be much higher than the current numbers show, and mortality rates will be much lower, IMO.
It's definitely not the flu. Some infections tend to hit different ages harder than others. Some hit the very young super hard, some the middle, some the old. This one seems to be most extreme on the old, or those with to much weight and likely associated illness's like high blood pressure, diabetes, heart disease etc. Not exclusively, but on the averages.
Taking basic precautions to help keep those folks well - wear a mask (it's not political, it's not bogus, new information is learned fast when a disease has only been known for like 4-5 months now) as it may protect others from you. Important since a number of folks are asymptomatic with this and those who will become symptomatic can still be spreading the virus for several days prior to onset of symptoms. So you feeling fine, doesnt mean you couldnt infect the diabetic 45 year old next to you at the grocery store, or the old lady at the store or church etc. It's a zero burger on you, just put it on around other folks and you MAY help reduce odds of YOU spreading it to others which...
HELPS KEEP THE ECONOMY REOPENING AT THE STEADIEST RATE!!!!!!
So yeah, do distancing and mask up and wash your hands. It's going to be a while still. And the poop can hit the fan NYC or ITA style in a given area and if you live there, your area gets shut down again, or we all deal with mild inconvenience (mask, wash hands, try to keep some space when around others - is that seriously even an inconvenience? How is that even political at this point?)
Most important though, for anyone reading this. Be good to each other and yourself. We are only a few months from some you guys hunting Mulies and antelope, even Elk and earlier whitetail seasons. Gotta all stay well to be with our families and enjoying those seasons!
Someone asked numbers from Ike's post, I suspect he was using the US map here on the CDC site which lists NYC deaths at 29K roughly. I've seen some other numbers in the 24k range. My suspicion is the timing in terms of how numbers are collected, and the 24 just has not been fully updated yet. Given Johns Hopkins totals up to the 29k ish number as well.
Habitat for Wildlife's Link
Unless I missed it we never got it, as the posted message on the CF thread/forum link states. Not being snarky, just want to know. Thanks
I can't believe his is the only such case. Who knows what actually caused his death. I suspect there are many deaths caused by Covid-19 that are ruled as something else. Just as the other way around.
Sorry for your loss.
I have read it both ways, reports of counting everything as COVID and other reports of many passing away at home and the cause listed as diabetes, heart disease etc.
One reading which made sense to me is that the average number of deaths per year nationwide outside of war casualties is very stable. So an accurate number will be to look at how much the annual death rate this year and next differ from those stable averages, the difference being attributable to COVID.
The bottom line is, no one definitively knows the true extent of infections, or mortality rates. It's all just guesses based on incomplete data and vague assumptions, right now. When Trump was touting only a handful of confirmed cases in the US, I think the virus had already been here for months. I'm betting several bowsiters have already had it and recovered from it without even knowing it was Covid. Without 100% testing for both the virus and the anti-bodies from having and recovering from the virus, we will never know the true numbers.
My Uncle died of the flu years ago but on the death certificate they put down kidney failure since the flu pushed him over the brink.
Oh, and Russia, China, Iran, and N. Korea are all lying about their COVID fatalities. And many 2nd and 3rd world nations just don't have the infrastructure to accurately count, much less test.
Yet, Wyoming is still not allowing any non-residents to camp in their State Parks. I think Wyoming is on Wyoming's side.
I just found it ironic that a guy from Pennsylvania would be touting Wyoming as being on "our side", when Wyoming clearly doesn't want any non-residents right now.
I can camp in my home state until then no problem.
I have no out of state hunts planned and I don't have a need for any new equipment unless I go with Ozonics this year. I did stick money into a drone but isn't the scouting tool I thought it would be. I'm headed to my deer hunting shack in the morning for four days, return Monday and then back to work until the next trip north. I haven't worn a face mask but I haven't shaken hands with but a few. No hugs, no kisses.
It’s really messing with a hunt I’ve been planning to Alaska for two years. Archery Bou hunt in the 40 Mile herd. I’m going to look for some trip insurance this AM. If any of you have trip insurance experience PM me please! Good luck to all!!!
This! That and hopefully I can make my POW trip...
Quit eating [email protected]*t you're not supposed to eat. Problem solved...
This is absolutely terrible from my stand point
Michael, have your opinions changed at all, now that you are battling this virus?
With all due respect,