From bad to worse
General Topic
Contributors to this thread:
soccern23ny 22-Oct-20
soccern23ny 22-Oct-20
Glunt@work 22-Oct-20
Boris 22-Oct-20
ground hunter 22-Oct-20
BlazerZR2 22-Oct-20
ryanrc 22-Oct-20
SaddleReaper 22-Oct-20
SlipShot 22-Oct-20
Dale06 22-Oct-20
wytex 22-Oct-20
Ucsdryder 22-Oct-20
wraith8 22-Oct-20
Ermine 22-Oct-20
Whocares 22-Oct-20
GF 22-Oct-20
RT 22-Oct-20
PECO 22-Oct-20
soccern23ny 22-Oct-20
soccern23ny 22-Oct-20
Norseman 22-Oct-20
Kurt 22-Oct-20
Glunt@work 22-Oct-20
walking buffalo 22-Oct-20
GF 22-Oct-20
soccern23ny 22-Oct-20
Old School 22-Oct-20
GF 22-Oct-20
TrapperKayak 22-Oct-20
walking buffalo 22-Oct-20
JohnMC 22-Oct-20
smarba 22-Oct-20
Kurt 22-Oct-20
Franzen 22-Oct-20
Ziek 22-Oct-20
Ucsdryder 22-Oct-20
Ziek 22-Oct-20
Franzen 22-Oct-20
coelker 22-Oct-20
cnelk 22-Oct-20
cnelk 22-Oct-20
Old School 22-Oct-20
GF 22-Oct-20
Ziek 22-Oct-20
cnelk 22-Oct-20
ruffedges 22-Oct-20
ruffedges 22-Oct-20
Ziek 22-Oct-20
Ermine 22-Oct-20
Glunt@work 22-Oct-20
Two Feathers 22-Oct-20
HDE 23-Oct-20
Ucsdryder 23-Oct-20
Bowbender 23-Oct-20
KsRancher 23-Oct-20
WV Mountaineer 23-Oct-20
Ziek 23-Oct-20
Treeline 23-Oct-20
Bowbender 23-Oct-20
jingalls 23-Oct-20
RT 23-Oct-20
JohnMC 23-Oct-20
BadlandsRoger 23-Oct-20
Treeline 23-Oct-20
Goosedog21 23-Oct-20
Ziek 23-Oct-20
RT 23-Oct-20
BadlandsRoger 23-Oct-20
LINK 23-Oct-20
mrelite 23-Oct-20
Zbone 23-Oct-20
From: soccern23ny
22-Oct-20

soccern23ny's embedded Photo
soccern23ny's embedded Photo
Map of Troublesome fire Colorado at about 1pm on 10/21/2020

From: soccern23ny
22-Oct-20

soccern23ny's embedded Photo
soccern23ny's embedded Photo
Fire as of 10/21/2020 @2100

cross your fingers for grand lake and granby

From: Glunt@work
22-Oct-20

Glunt@work's embedded Photo
Glunt@work's embedded Photo

From: Boris
22-Oct-20
Isn't this what a lot of you guys from out that way said would happen do to the high amount of beetle kill? I do remember people talking about 5-8 years ago they need to do some control burn to get rid of the pine needles and the deadfalls. I guess what you guys need a 1 good blizzard to drop about 2-3 feet of heavy wet snow to slow this thing down.

22-Oct-20
I complain about snow, well I have nothing to complain about..... stay tough out there..

From: BlazerZR2
22-Oct-20

BlazerZR2's embedded Photo
BlazerZR2's embedded Photo
It blew up, no good. Almost to the divide already. Only a matter of time till it goes through the park and ties into Cameron Peak fire.

From: ryanrc
22-Oct-20
Grew 100k in 12 hours!

From: SaddleReaper
22-Oct-20
This may be a stupid question, but after fires like this, are those entire areas devoid of elk and other ground dwelling wildlife for a few years? I'm guessing they can't escape the fires when its moving quickly?

May God be with those who are in its path and those fighting to contain it.

From: SlipShot
22-Oct-20
Very little big game are lost to fires. The big game will be in the burn scars almost as soon as the fire burns through. There will be some new green growth within weeks. Even this late in the grow season.

From: Dale06
22-Oct-20
I expect in a couple years this burned area will be prime habitat, with lots of food for deer and elk.

From: wytex
22-Oct-20
The fire will burn a mosaic pattern and be good for habitat but some areas will burn down to mineral spoil and be years to recover. Prayers to those affected and in the way.

From: Ucsdryder
22-Oct-20
It’ll help the wolves see the elk. It’ll be great.

From: wraith8
22-Oct-20
Saw it on the news this morning. Heard Rocky Mountain National Park was closed because of it.

From: Ermine
22-Oct-20
Unfortunately a lot of that country needs to burn

From: Whocares
22-Oct-20
Incredible! In all my years in wildfire I don't recall a fire exploding overnight by 100,000 acres! Extreme danger for residents and firefighters. Everything lined up this year for all the fire in Colorado with all the dead timber. And a couple more days of red flag conditions forecast. Hopefully the weather forecast in a few days will give everyone a break. Lots of people without homes as winter approaches. Just say a silent prayer for them. My daughter, a surgery nurse in Grandby, and was taking back roads to get to the hospital this morning. She called and said the state is discussing hunting closure due to potential for fire starts from gunfire and to keep people out of the backcountry. Anybody else hearing anything about that??

From: GF
22-Oct-20
Where are you guys going to pull those maps? This is one I need to keep an eye on...

Slipshot & Wytex are on it... grasses will be there shortly; everything else will come along in nature’s timing. It’ll be good for the Elk that make it through this winter, but it’s going to make for interesting hunting once the doghair gets to be about head high.

Hoping a lot of north-facing slopes will be moist enough to prove fire-resistant, but there’s just SO much fuel up there right now....

One good thing in our drainage is that the aspens have really come along in the past 20 years, and live aspens don’t burn much.

From: RT
22-Oct-20
I've never heard of a fire starting due to hunting ammunition. That's some commie level restriction there.

From: PECO
22-Oct-20

PECO's Link
https://inciweb.nwcg.gov/incident/7242/

From: soccern23ny
22-Oct-20
@saddle...

as far as elk and game returning.

There is plenty of evidence out there that shows elk like post burn areas(and hate beetle kill areas). They feel secure/like they are in cover even though they are easy to see. And there is abundant new growth on the years after....

HOWEVER...

due to climate change and the fact that these fires are burning "hotter" than fires in the past, there are new studies that are showing forests are taking much longer to recover than they normally should. This is due to the heat of the fire just kills too much, even nutrients in the soil. And the increase in temp from climate change and lack of water does not encourage native growth of what was originally there. IE... forests that were Ponderosa pine, lodgepole pine, Douglas-fir, Rocky Mountain juniper etc may end up gowning back as something else, thus impacting the animals there on top of taking longer to grow back.

https://www.npr.org/2020/09/13/911935457/as-wildfires-grow-more-intense-iconic-western-forests-may-not-come-back

@rt... fires from human ammunation happen often enough I believe it's how one of colorado's started last yea... a skip off a rock can do it, it's that dry. But normally from tracer rounds. https://www.9news.com/article/news/local/colorado-agency-to-reopen-gun-range-where-fire-was-started/73-594538994

Also as far as this area is concerned, I hunted near denver creek campground this year. Lots of idiots, yes IDIOTS had their wood/coal heating stoves going in their outfitter tents. Simply not allowed. Don't know what caused this fire. But there are usually fairly good reasons why certain bans exist. Yes the bans suck, but ravaging wild fires suck even more. It literally only takes 1 spark.

From: soccern23ny
22-Oct-20

From: Norseman
22-Oct-20
Oh my. (Face Palm)

From: Kurt
22-Oct-20
Sounds like the Arapahoe and Roosevelt NF are mostly closed from the WY line down to Evergreen as of Oct 20. Google the Closure: FOREST ORDER USDA FOREST SERVICE Arapaho and Roosevelt NationalForests Boulder, Canyon Lakes, and Clear Creek Ranger Districts STAGE 3 CLOSURE ORDER

From: Glunt@work
22-Oct-20
Im no expert but lead and copper dont make good fire making strikers last I checked.

22-Oct-20
Climate change.... lol...

I wonder what a chart of annual acres burned by wildfire would show, say from 1900 forward to today.....

From: GF
22-Oct-20
“ I wonder what a chart of annual acres burned by wildfire would show, say from 1900 forward to today.....”

The trend line would be some kind of a U-shape. First we had fires on a regular basis. Then we got real good at putting them out. Then we had a long period of fuel accumulation. Now that fuel is drier than a popcorn fart and the whole thing is ready to blow.

Hang onto your earlobes!

From: soccern23ny
22-Oct-20
not sure what's funny about climate change.

I mean there is no denying "climate change"(earth getting warmer) just like there's no denying that Trump is our president.

The numbers are in black and white.

What is up for debate is the cause of the climate change... earth naturally getting warmer vs humans making it warmer. And what will happen because of climate change.

Literally the numbers are in black and white that show our planet(and state of Colorado) getting warmer and warmer year after year, decade after decade. The ONLY thing up for debate is why, and what will happen as a result of it.

"more fires" seems like are reasonable outcome if a place is warmer and has less water. It's not rocket science. Sure humans play a part. But less water more heat would lead to more fires.(also warmer temps and not getting as cold as long helps the bark beetle spread since cold kills it/makes it go dormant). Compounding factor after compounding factor.

From: Old School
22-Oct-20
Lots of fuel on the ground along with standing dead bettlekill and red flag winds will make for a hot fire. Regardless of “climate change”.....

From: GF
22-Oct-20
Thanks for the link, PECO…

I guess it’s headed east… So I don’t need to worry about my mom too much, but boy, it’s right there in the neighborhood!

From: TrapperKayak
22-Oct-20
Bummer, the Never Summer wilderness is on fire? That sucks (for now...in 5-20 years it will be a lot better, maybe even sooner.).

22-Oct-20
soccern, Research historical wildfire data.

Why were wildfires burning 900% more acres per year in the early 1900's and even more pre-colonization? Was that due to climate change?

Many people require some learnin' in perspective, especially when promoting alarms of climate change is causing this and that....

From: JohnMC
22-Oct-20
My question is these fire are relative close together. I would think weather and wind would be similar at the fires. Yet one day one blows up and the next day the next. You would think when condition a favorable for a fire to grow at one fire it would also be at the others in the area. Yet when the Mullen fire was going crazy the Cameron peak did nothing. Then the Cameron peak went wild and the Mullen fire did not grow. Yesterday the Troublesome fire took off and neither the Cameron or Mullen fire did much growing. Anyone know why that is? Maybe Ermine that is a firefighter?

From: smarba
22-Oct-20
Let's see...ice used to cover a huge portion of the earth (you know, the ICE AGE). Now it doesn't. Yes the climate has changed. But by far the most change occurred when humans were barely even a blip on the radar, let alone having any effect on the climate...

But hey, climate change (recall GLOBAL WARMING had to be tabled because it made it too hard to blame ice and snowstorms on humans) is all our fault...

From: Kurt
22-Oct-20
SMARBA gets it!!

From: Franzen
22-Oct-20
Great Falls and northern MT seeing that "climate change" first hand shortly... going to be about -10F in a day or three. Certainly, no one can deny the climate is changing though. It has and always will continue to change since the dawn of time... but hey let's get in our lib plug. Seems like a horse that'll never drink, so no bother in leading him to the tank.

Hope like hell the Divide halts the fire and west winds for a couple more days keep the fire "up against a wall" to allow some containment.

From: Ziek
22-Oct-20
So much ignorance on here.

First off, climate changer IS real. Doesn't matter what the reason is for it. It's happening. And it's a global warming trend over an unprecedented short period of time. There may or may not be much we can do about it, but the less we can do, the more we should be preparing for the effects. Also, historical data is not relevant for the type of devastation from all types of more violent events that WILL result since our population is so much higher. Doing nothing but claiming "climate is always changing, just get used to it", is irresponsible and just plane stupid, or at least short-sighted and defeatist.

As to winds being the same, or even similar in this entire fire area, it just ain't so in the mountains. We were (and still are) under the smoke plume from the East Troublesome Fire yesterday, about half way between the Cameron Peak Fire to the north and the Calwood Fire to the south, and there was not even a breeze here. Judging from the small plume from Calwood, it was very light there.

As to the National Forest closures, shooting is just one of the concerns, and that concern is not so much from the bullet but from the muzzle blast. A greater concern is from smokers, illegal campfires, and any number of careless, or actual accidental ignition sources. We a re SO dry right now that NO ONE has ever seen this type of extremely rapid, large scale fire escalations. I saw the Calwood fire's first hint of smoke, to burning a couple of dozen homes to the ground miles away in just a couple hours. Those folks only had about 20 minutes warning to evacuate.

Also, as dry as it's been for months, it really doesn't make any difference whether its live standing trees or beetle kill trees, they ALL burn like dry wood. The best hope for saving property and homes is to have already done extensive fire mitigation. But of course, that is expensive and labor intensive, and there is no financial incentive to protect our forests and properties ahead of time. They evidently would rather spend the money fighting fires instead.

How quickly the landscape recovers, and how wildlife fares is still an open question. We certainly won't see any forest recovery in our lifetimes. It will be a very different landscape for a long time, and with climate change, maybe forever. Even when grass and shrubs start to regenerate, it will be a miserable place to hike/hunt due to all the ash for many years.

From: Ucsdryder
22-Oct-20
Estes is being evacuated. The distance the fire travelled overnight is about the distance to get to Estes. That snow storm needs to hurry up!!!

From: Ziek
22-Oct-20
"The Troublesome fire and the Cameron Peak fire are 10 miles apart. " And "The Calwood fire is on the east side of the divide so I'm sure the winds were much lower there."

You are aware the Cameron Peak fire is also on the east side of the divide?

As a former commercial pilot, and long time resident of Colorado I was witness constantly to extremely variable winds at different altitudes and locations near each other from orographic effects, frontal passages, and many other variables. As a hunter, you should have experienced many of these in macro and micro events. Just turn your back to a strong wind and take a leak. Then tell which way the important wind was blowing. ;-)

From: Franzen
22-Oct-20
Talk about stupid... planes fly in the air bud, but make sure you stay the course. Climate change IS real. Unfortunately your unprecedented talk is the stuff that ignorance is made of, and merely a short-sighted view of the history of the planet.

From: coelker
22-Oct-20
Yep this is about the very best thing that could happen to those areas now. Sorry but 20 years ago those forest were dead, old and full of fuel, then add in beetle kill and absolutely no mitigation by the forest service. It is a good thing and in the long run will be very good. As for Climate change. The fire have absolutely nothing to do with climate change, and everything to do with fire suppression and lack of forest management.

From: cnelk
22-Oct-20
I saw a professor from a local Liberal Indoctrination Center on the news this morning.

He was saying that the beetle kill trees weren’t providing much of the fuel for these fires.

He really should leave the city limits and look around

From: cnelk
22-Oct-20
BTW - Grand County was the epicenter of the beetle kill. No wonder that fire grew like it did.

From: Old School
22-Oct-20
It was obviously also subject to climate change while the other nearby fires were not. ;-)

From: GF
22-Oct-20
“ Why were wildfires burning 900% more acres per year in the early 1900's and even more pre-colonization? Was that due to climate change?”

Pre-settlement, the natives set fires deliberately on a regular basis. Then when they became “wildfires”, we put them out.

All you’ve proven is a profound gap in your knowledge of the history.

So… ONE more time!

CO2-enriched air stores more heat. Proven in a lab many times.

In a few, short centuries, we humans have burned millions of years worth of carbon that was stored deep in the earth as fossil fuel, and now it’s in the air. That too, has been measured, in PPM.

If that doesn’t add up to more heat stored in the atmosphere for you, you obviously have a bright future in politics, where spending more money and lowering everyone’s taxes always adds up to a smaller deficit.

Like Ed Koch said: I can explain it to you. I can’t understand it for you.

From: Ziek
22-Oct-20
In case you haven't noticed, live trees are burning just as fast as dead trees. And the dry needles in live trees provide MORE fuel than the bare (by now) beetle killed trees. Since there are no significant live trees grown up since the beetle kill, there is no additional fuel, just dry dead trees and dry live, drought stressed trees. They BOTH burn very easily once started.

From: cnelk
22-Oct-20
In case you haven’t noticed, there has been minimal logging over the past 2-3 decades. Where there was logging operations prior to that, the forest is healthy, even in a drought.

I’ve driven thru many mtn subdivisions and there is hardly any fire mitigation in these neighborhoods. And people wonder why their house burns up.

From: ruffedges
22-Oct-20
This, from Grand County Emergency Management at 5:15 Mtn Time 10-22-2020: We are still experiencing extreme fire activity across the East Troublesome Fire. Predicted winds and fuels are contributing to the significant spread. We can confirm that the fire has crossed the continental divide and continuing to move northeast towards Mt. Wuh. There are evacuation orders in place for Estes Park and more information on those evacuations can be found at Larimer.org or by calling 970-980-2500. Along the southeastern part of the fire, near Hwy 40, firefighters have successfully completed a burn operation that has reduced the fuel between the main fire and the highway. Granby remains in a Pre-Evacuation status at this time. #easttroublesomefire Grand County Emergency Management Grand County Sheriff's Office - Colorado Larimer County Sheriff's Office Larimer Emergency Telephone Authority - LETA

From: ruffedges
22-Oct-20
Chad (Pig Doc), my son owns Jackson Plumbing and he lives between Tabernash and Granby. He is packed and ready to head south if the order is given. His place of business is in Granby and he has had clients calling today to cancel work orders because their residences are gone.

From: Ziek
22-Oct-20
"...tell me why Troublesome grew 160 square miles yesterday and Williams Fork did nothing when winds were the same for both fires."

Because wind isn't the only factor, and likely the wind on the ground wasn't exactly the same due to orographic differences.

Cnelk, I made similar comments about forest and residential property management as it pertains to fire mitigation above. But I would rather see forests managed with at least some concern for fire mitigation rather than primarily for commercial gain. The clear cutting I see is far from ideal for forest management.

From: Ermine
22-Oct-20
Check out historical fires. Look at the Great fire of 1910. There have been giant ones in the past. Even Before people were documenting them. So to say fires are getting worse is wrong.

Sure the earth might be in a drying trend right now. But I think the earth cycles. There have been drought times and cold periods in history. But our Governor Polis wants to ban gas powered vehicles. Because they are the attribute to these fires.

Logging and forest management can help a lot. Our forests were Choked full and with fire suppression made them sick. Pine beetles came in and did the work that fires were supposed to do.

Unfortunately these areas need to burn. People homes No...but all the beetle kill and mess needs to be cleaned Up.

From: Glunt@work
22-Oct-20
Reporting that they believe the Troublesome fire is human-caused. No details on intentional, accidental, etc..

Our neighbor's cabin was taken by the Cameron fire last week. Another friend owned a beautiful home in Grand Lake that he sold a couple years ago. Map shows about 1/2 that neighborhood is gone.

From: Two Feathers
22-Oct-20
While the earth remaineth, seedtime and harvest, and cold and heat, and summer and winter, and day and night shall not cease. Gen 8:22

I believe climate change is cyclical. It's happened in the past. The damage done today is more evident because of populations and development. I do not believe it is caused by too much CO2

From: HDE
23-Oct-20
The earth's rotation on its axis is not perfect. There is a slight tilting back and forth. Fact. That is why we experience the weather cycles periodically and it happens a few times in a century.

To say all climate change is anthropogenic is nonsensical at best.

From: Ucsdryder
23-Oct-20

Ucsdryder's Link
Maybe instead of bickering like a bunch of 13 year old girls having a twitter fight we can think about all the people who are being impacted by these fires. Saw this on the news. Incredibly sad and there are stories of heartache and loss all over from these fires.

From: Bowbender
23-Oct-20
There have been literally thousands of "climate change" events. Long before man ever walked upright out of the primordial ooze... And many of those with catastrophic consequences. Pretty sure it wasn't man's fault then. But hey, let's look at 150 years of data set points in a 4,000,000,000 year data set and extrapolate an issue. But this time it's man's fault. It HAS to be.

As far as "burning millions of years of hydrocarbons in a few hundred years" has caused heat to be trapped by CO2, that must explain why ice core samples have shown that CO2 lags temperature increase. And a lab ain't an ever changing environment. It's a controled experiment, meant to produce a given result.

From: KsRancher
23-Oct-20
I would think that the geography would have quite a bit to do with how the fires burned and how fast. Let's say if one fire really doesn't have any uphill stuff to burn at that current time and is also fighting the wind that it might not go very fast. And if the other fire just happens to get to the bottom of a several mile wide and long group of ravines and has some wind pushing it, it would just roar of through there.

23-Oct-20
This is a man made problem. Global warming is not the cause because no one can do more then suggests it even exists. It’s liberal ideas like save the forests, Let’s create NAFTA, and do gooders who think they know Forest ecology because a National Geographic special on wolves Reported under growth increased in Yellowstone after wolf reintroduction.

Trade deals that killed American mills and people who think heart strings determine what is best is the problem. And people living in these areas are suffering for it. Somebody is going to pay the piper. And, as usual it’s the people that are affected by political games that is paying the price.

From: Ziek
23-Oct-20
The bottom line is it's not high fuel loads, they have been there for years. And it's not high winds, we get those all the time in Colorado. Yes they are primary contributing factors to these fires. But the main cause is unprecedented dry conditions, especially for this time of year. And that is a result of global warming. You guys can keep denying it as larger and more frequent fires erupt, more and stronger hurricanes destroy coastal areas, more violent storms devastate the midwest, and more permafrost and ice sheets melt in the Arctic and Antarctic. It's real and it's happening, just open your eyes.

From: Treeline
23-Oct-20
The world has been much warmer in the past. And colder.

CO2 levels were way higher in the past. Before there were any machines. Plant and animal diversity and abundance was also very high in those periods.

We are still on the tail end of the last ice age. It was far warmer in the interim period between the last two ice ages.

Funny how the big scare in the 70’s was “Global Cooling”. Along with “Peak Oil”...

Those that attribute “Global Warming” primary to human influence have not researched very deeply.

Also interesting that the rhetoric has devolved in recent years to “Climate Change”. Mostly because the real climate data did not support “Global Warming”.

Typically, those who pray to the altar of cataclysmic “Global Climate Change” are after one thing - expansion of their power over people through fear.

From: Bowbender
23-Oct-20
"But the main cause is unprecedented dry conditions,..."

What's your frame of reference for "unprecedented"? Last 50 years, 150, 1000 years. 1,000,000 years?

"It's real and it's happening, just open your eyes."

And it's happened before. Thousands of times. Long before man ever walked on the scene. History doesn't begin 150 years ago.

As far as coastal areas being destroyed, landscape is not a constant. Never was. But let's build homes, right on the beach, at or below sea level, and then complain when mother nature takes it back.

From: jingalls
23-Oct-20
Treeline & Bowbender x2!

From: RT
23-Oct-20
Go on weather underground, zoom into Granby, click on webcams, click on the one next to Grand Lake.

From: JohnMC
23-Oct-20

JohnMC's Link
RT I don't know what camera your referring to. However I could see me being the guy that put his camper here not knowing there is a webcam and thinking the best place to take a leak would be right in front of the camera for the world to see.

23-Oct-20
Hey Ziek

Before you say this: "We are SO dry right now that NO ONE has ever seen this type of extremely rapid, large scale fire escalations" You might want to read "The Big Burn" it's a story about the largest recorded fire in US History and it happened in 1910 in the Northwest well before it was a well populated area. That fire was 3 million acres across Washington, Idaho, Montana and British Columbia.

You are correct that given the current nature of our landscapes, natural disasters can have a much bigger impact. Decades of fire suppression, buildup of beetle kill-largely due to said fire suppression, rampant buildout of suburbs, cabins etc onto rangelands combined with a climate that has been warming of late and a particularly dry summer makes for a terrible combination.

One of the problems we humans have is that we are terrible at assessing real risk, as opposed to perceived risk, and of predicting the future. We take what's in front of us and extrapolate it out into the future and it's almost always wrong. That's why the best scientists predicted another ice age in the 1970's and that's why today's climate scientists and their models all have a steep upward sloping trendline.

If you had taken the climate warming from the 1930's (dust bowl) and projected it forward like we've done with the last twenty years nobody would have predicted the cooling trend in the 1960's and 1970's.

I don't know if you've ever dealt with any modeling in your career or not, but I've dealt with some of the smartest analysts in the country on things such as predictions of future fuel consumption, GDP growth and pro forma financial models and they ALL get it wrong. Climate modeling is orders of magnitude more complex and full of unknowns. For us to put any faith in these models is folly.

The reason we all have ethanol in our gasoline now is that back in 2005 Oil was well over $100/bbl and all of the best models predicted that we were at peak oil production and the world was running out. The corn lobby jumped all over this and pushed the Renewable Fuel Standard through congress. They predicted a straightline growth in fuel consumption and baked in a mandated amount of ethanol and biodiesel be used. Those numbers (and their projections of oil production volume and price) were all completely wrong, but we are stuck with the consequences of legislation passed 15 years ago based on flawed models.

Bottom line, it's OK not to know everything. Nobody does, but we need to continue to be flexible and adapt to change because that's one thing we can be guaranteed about.

From: Treeline
23-Oct-20
Excellent points Badlands!

From: Goosedog21
23-Oct-20
Prayers for all. The forecast for this area shows winds will pick up tonight through tomorrow. Winds 50-60 mph out of the west. Watch out Estes and areas to the east.

From: Ziek
23-Oct-20
I have read The Big Burn. That was the worst fire of that time. It was also unique. If you include the west coast and mountain west, we have seen several similar fires just this year. Veteran fire fighters that have been interviewed say they have never seen any thing like this year.

As to predictions, science improves all the time. But if they are correct, do we wait until they are proven right and then react, or do we prepare for it now. All of these warming/cooling events being given to prove global warming false, do not account for what we are seeing on a global scale now. It's similar to some that t want to revive/expand deplete-able fossil fuels, at any cost. I don't want to see the ANWR exploited that we. Sooner or later we WILL extract the last drop of oil from the ground. Do we wait until that day to address the ramifications, or should we be more responsible and start to transition to renewable energy now, and slow down the need for fossil fuels until technology can provide suitable alternatives? I know, I know, that's for future generation to worry about. Just kick the can down the road. Just remember, it wasn't all that long ago that no one thought many of our wildlife could be depleted, or that the ocean was so vast we couldn't possibly screw it up, or that we could keep sending things into orbit without regard for possible consequences.

And the main reason we have ethanol in our gas was because of the agriculture lobby as you said. They used it as an excuse to get subsidies. We haven't "needed" it since about when it went into effect. But I still find it hard to find non-ethanol gas.

From: RT
23-Oct-20
Looks like that cam is down now. Hmmm.

23-Oct-20
I 100% agree that science gets better as we go. That's the purpose of the scientific method. You hypothesize, experiment and verify and do it again. The problem we have is that we are but a blip in the big scheme of things and trying predict the earth is like looking at someone at noon on their fourth birthday and deciding what they will be like in 40 years from that one moment in time. It's not that we don't try to react and predict, but we have to remember that reactions have consequences just as non action has consequences.

My point about ethanol was that Governments are inherently bad at predicting the future. Markets do a much better job because they adjust constantly based on the latest information. Ten years ago the government could have said that they were wrong and backpeddled on ethanol but political realities don't allow for that, passing a bill encouraged billions of dollars of investment in the space and now you have jobs and investment on the line and now every corn belt politician has to be pro ethanol even though it's lauded as a bad idea except those in the industry (I used to be an ethanol trader...I know these guys).

So what happens if we build out this massive renewable platform. Everything in the midwest is covered in windmills and the entire southwest is covered in solar panels. You've destroyed a few hundred thousand jobs in the oil patch and raised energy prices for everyone on planet earth and then find out that the risks were overblown? Who's going to be responsible then? The reality is that nobody will be because we will all be dead before we know the outcome. Governments don't often suffer the consequences for their poor decisions they just place blame on the opposition party and move on to the next shiny object.

From: LINK
23-Oct-20
The biggest driver of our climate is and always will be the sun. There’s so much we don’t know yet certain people claim we must change because they have the answers. It baffles me how someone that’s a spec in the timeline of history can claim to know how cosmic things work.

From: mrelite
23-Oct-20
Ziek, Maybe we should be more responsible with reality, what renewable energy are we suppose to be transitioning to? I am pretty sure that if there were a viable energy source to transition to we would. Wind and solar are good supplements on a very small scale, neither are viable to provide the worlds energy needs, we would have to blanket the earth with turbins and panels and that still wouldn't be enough. In the USA we've made leaps and bounds in being more energy efficient in almost all aspects and I believe this trend will grow exponentially in the years to come. Just look at what has happened with technology since the early 1900's, in a 120 years we have exploded on the technology front, we will come up with an energy solution in a relatively short period of time but for now the reality of a viable power source to transition to is not here yet. The massive amount of money spent on promoting climate change would be better spent doing research on a viable energy source to transition to, instead of trying to damm the energy source that provides us the ability to research and move on to that next energy source.

From: Zbone
23-Oct-20
My personal opinion it hasn't anything to do with climate change but rather forestry mismanagement for almost a century of forest ground litter and the Smokey the Bear no burn policy...

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