land pricing
General Topic
been watching housing pricing go through the roof recently..
never really watched a lot of land pricing, has it been doing the same or holding somewhat steady? New construction pricing is nuts so i'm thinking land may be more steady?
any thoughts are appreciated.. especially future speculation
Red States - land prices and land-acreage w/house on it have gone through the roof in last 16 months.
FNC just had an article about the soaring prices of home construction material....specifically wood. I know last year when I was building a quality tower blind, the availability and cost of the lumber was horrible. Translate that to the new house construction biz and I can see (1) new home construction taking a hit and (2) existing home sales skyrocketing.
Yup. I just had my 130acre Ohio place assessed from my neighbor who's a realtor. She assessed it for $300k higher than I paid for it in March, 2020. If I subtract the 75k we spent renovating the farmouse I made $225k in one year. Not a bad little return. And I had 53 rack bucks that survived after the season!
I am a general contractor. And, despite variables being present to stop new construction, remodeling, and home improvements, I have never witnessed the amount of work that is now present.
I just priced a 640 square foot Home addition, with no new plumbing and only one interior wall at current market price for materials at over $110,000. That’s no plumbing, three windows, one interior door, and one exterior door. Drywall finish and lvl flooring. 1.5 years ago the homeowners received 5 bids. The highest being $46,000. Yet, they told me to roll with it.
That gives you an idea of how costs have risen. And, it gives you an idea of what people will go forward with if they want something.
Hmmm with the upcoming divorce of Americas largest 'farm' land owner Billy Gates, there could be some opportunity opening up. or maybe not!
;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;;; According to The Land Report, Bill Gates owns 242,000 acres of farmland, in addition to 25,750 acres of transitional land and 1,234 acres of recreational land, for a grand total of 268,984 acres.
The land is spread out through the South, Midwest, and West — with holdings in 19 states. Bill's holdings are largely FARM land..... for plain old land he does not even make the top 25 of landowners in US of A. his buddy Amazon buddy Jeff Bezos holds #25 at 290,000 Acres
The top spot currently held by #1. John Malone 2.2 million Acres, his good friend Ted Turner has fell to Number 2 spot with 2 million acres. [that website has included Teds South American holdings in this total.]
https://www.celebritynetworth.com/articles/entertainment-articles/25-largest-landowners-u-s-right-now/
Once inflation hits and interest rates rise, the insane demand will come to a screeching halt.
^.....or we have another housing bubble crash circa 2006ish.
"Red States - land prices and land-acreage w/house on it have gone through the roof in last 16 months."
It doesn't much matter the color of the state, assets values are generally up across the board.
Way up here in SW Missouri. Houses hard to find. Land even harder. Dad just had some land appraised. Unreal
A third of an acre lot in my neighborhood just sold for 270K!
One of my teammates sold his 1300 sq ft home with just a Lot for 600k. That's in Austin, TX. Bidding war sent it higher than the list. Can you imagine spending 600k for a 1300 sq foot home???
But the fed said the cpi is 2% for 2021?
How about a 1,110 sf 3/2 on a 7,945 sf lot built in 1961 for a paltry $1.495M? It appears the house is listed under value as Zillow has it closer $1.7M.
About 18 months ago I paid $2.30 for an 8' 2x4,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2 weeks ago 8' 2x4 = $9.28
If you weren’t around when the 1970’s played out with hyper inflation and 20% short term interest rates you probably should read up on it. It’s hard to believe things will remain as they have been going forward with all this newly printed money. My first mortgage in 1979 was 12%.
Property near cities (and high-paying jobs) is crazy. There are small houses in greater Boston area, on 1/6 acre lots, valued at 8-900,000 smackers. You ain't gonna buy that on a blue-collar job.
Was looking at property ownership in central MA and it's surprising how much land Harvard University owns...
That’s funny Charlie. My first mortgage was 1978 I think and was 12% also. Things are not going to get better anytime soon
Hey Matt does that house coming with homeless people living in tents in the backyard that crap on the sidewalk?
"Hey Matt does that house coming with homeless people living in tents in the backyard that crap on the sidewalk?"
Nope, but looks like this thread has one.
Interesting note about the actual price of a 2 x 4 above. Last night I noticed some lumber for sale on the local FB Marketplace. Several commenters were asking how much for the stack...a very big stack. New and used lumber might be the next big commodity. Those used wood pallets you see "for free" some company laid out by the side of the road might have some recycled wood value pretty soon.
"Red States - land prices and land-acreage w/house on it have gone through the roof in last 16 months."
"It doesn't much matter the color of the state, assets values are generally up across the board."
I beg to differ - folks are leaving the blue States in record numbers and specifically targeting red States for relocation in record numbers... supply and demand.
Nice run-up in value on my NW MO farm.
But Yellon just said interest rates may have to go up, if so that could chill things a wee bit.
With todays closing price of corn at $7.44 a bushel and soybeans at $15.77 any ground here in the Midwest that has tillable acres will not sell for less than $10000.00 an acre.
Last month there was 2 parcels in N.E. Iowa that I believe were around 80 acres each that sold for $18500.00 an acre.
There was billions of dollars pumped into the pockets of farmers in the last 2 years from the Trump administration. Couple that with todays high commodity prices and low interest rates and suddenly you have a whole bunch of people with deep pockets.
One other thing to keep in mind......we are not making any more land.
Land....a great hedge against inflation with an annual cash-on-cash return of 3.5 to 4 percent per year plus annual appreciation. 2021 annual appreciation will approach 15 to 20%!
"I beg to differ - folks are leaving the blue States in record numbers and specifically targeting red States for relocation in record numbers... supply and demand."
Do you have data to support that? There was a lot of talk of people leaving CA in droves during COVID, and yet cell phone tracking showed ~80% just left urban areas for different parts of California. On 2/21, CNN published a story titled "Lots of people moved out of New York and California in 2020 - Here's where they went" and then a month later published "No 'mass exodus' in California during the pandemic, study finds". As is typical, people read the news story but not the retraction.
https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.cnn.com/cnn/2021/03/05/us/california-study-pandemic-no-mass-exodus/index.html
I linked an article that shows predictions for the hottest 25 housing markets for 2021 in terms of sales growth and property appreciation. The #1 and #2 markets are in CA (as are #8, 10, 13, 14 and 18). Based on the 2020 presidential election, the list's top 10 line out as follows: Sacramento, CA (blue), San Jose, CA (blue), Charlotte, NC (red), Boise (red), Seattle (blue), Phoenix (blue), Harrisburg, PA (blue), Oxnard, CA (blue), Denver (blue), and Riverside, CA (blue). 2 red, 8 blue.
Texas and Florida (red) have cities that come in at #16, 17, 19-22, and 25 but none higher on the list.
"Red States - land prices and land-acreage w/house on it have gone through the roof in last 16 months."
My home in California is worth 3 times what I paid for it 12 years ago. It's a red county next to one of the bluest counties in the state. It's not just red vs blue, it's urban vs suburban vs rural. People are leaving cities for rural areas.
Why would you live in a city if you could work from home?
Why would you live in a city anyways?
Land, they aren’t making anymore of it. Get it while and if you can ;)
I don't know......if folks weren't bailing out of many blue states....why are red states picking up Congressional seats? Cali has been losing folks for the last few years....even pre-virus. One article I looked at said the last 9 years. That would make sense based on the new census data numbers. Anecdotally, the bro in Montana said the Cali crowd is driving up prices and many are not welcome there. The lot next to his house on the mountain just sold to some folks from Cali. The attached article discusses that. Back in the mid-1990's I was in Dubois, WY talking to the Chamber of Commerce lady there. She was raising warning flags back then about inflated property values from newcomers over paying for property and driving up taxes.
Nice article JL
And you are right. All the articles to the contrary, Cali and other reds states are losing citizens. Smoke screens just won’t work when you get down to the brass tacks of population and new population and added congressional seats
We here on the island I live on are swamped with CA license plates
The standard greeting here is “welcome, please don’t vote like you did in the place you just left”
I’ve met some great people
I hope that when all these people move away they don't vote-in the same losers that wrecked the blue states they escaped from.
"Cali has been losing folks for the last few years....even pre-virus. One article I looked at said the last 9 years."
No, it hasn't, SMH. California's population declined in 2020 for the first time in over a century.
The growth "rate" had been declining which may be what you read, but it was not negative until 2020.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/03/31/why-californias-population-boom-has-stalled/
Think whatever you must Matt. Here in Northwest Wyoming we are inundated with people relocating from blue states. At the courthouse my wife deals with it every day. The best one was a family from the west coast that arrived one day, bought a house, registered there vehicle to get rid of the out-of-state plates the very next day, oh and also had their kids in school that day for the first time in over a year.
Californians moving in here in SW MO as well. They say they are tired of the mess out there and can no longer stand it. They call themselves “conservatives”. Unfortunately what they deem “conservative” is in Californian values and we see their views as borderline liberal.
Pat - I don’t have much hope for the ones fleeing. They’re obviously not all bad but there’s a bunch of them that wreck one place and take no responsibility for it and move on to the next spot.
Matt...this is where I got the 9 years statement. Take it for what it's worth.
""Why is Everyone Leaving CALIFORNIA, and Where Are They Leaving To? July 30, 2020 By NEWS WIRE 5 Comments
Nick Johnson says…
Here’s where everyone’s going and why. It used to be the California Dream. Now, it’s the California nightmare. That was basic.
In case you haven’t heard, a ton of people are fleeing California. You can’t blame them. We’ll get into all the reasons why later, but the overall theme here is – California kinda sucks now.
A total of 691,321 people moved from California to another state last year. That’s more than the whole state of Wyoming – every single year! And that was more than the previous year. It’s like a damn breaking and all the California people are spilling out all over the place.
Sure, there are a lot of people moving here, too. About a half million people decided to move to California last year, for whatever reason I don’t know. Maybe cause it’s warmer? Or for a job maybe.
Anyways, the negative migration was the 9th year in a row for California. There are only a handful of other states that can claim that. Californians are moving to places like Texas, Florida, Oregon, Washington, Colorado and even New York!""
JL, no offense but that is not a legitimate news source and a simple review of census data demonstrates that. The fact that he doesn't know the difference between one year and every year or damn and dam should be a tip off.
LOL, Matt, I see you're from CA. Are you insulted that somebody pointed out that people aren't loving it so much anymore or what? You posted about hot real estate markets, that is not necessarily an indicator that people are moving into the state from other states. For example, the Denver metro is a hot market because people are coming in from other states (from CA and elsewhere), on the other hand most cities in CA have had hot markets for decades simply because there are so many people and limited space. Not sure why you're so focused on the pandemic time period, the CA exodus has been going on since long before Covid reared its head...
Surfbow, he's posting from CNN and WaPo. Probably stays up late to watch Brian Stelter and Don Lemon reruns! Enough said.
While many are leaving CA, the way they pour across the border may be a wash
What is the population shift/ land price shift like _within_ California? People talk like it's all a big suburb of LA. Yeah, there are several mega-cities but also huge agricultural areas, large areas of mountains and forests etc. etc. Red and blue districts. Bigger and more diverse than some countries.
Also noticed he is getting his information from the ultimate "trust-worthy" washington post.
Ike is correct.
If you don't think that inflation is coming, after the record amount of TRILLIONS floated in 2020, you are a complete blunt skull.
If you don't think that the BLM and Cancel the Police culture, have not caused urban flight , you are even a thicker blunt skull.
Leftist in the cities have allowed and promoted violence and mayhem, the police are NOT allowed to keep order anymore, under the pretense of racism, so cities will be anarchy centers. Anybody that can, and has a lick of sense is leaving.
Everyone rags on California, I get there a lot for work, beautiful state, and 45% of the folks are great, its just the urban centers that are ignorant. Change the gov't to a conservative one and Cali would boom again. It's the taxes , stupid....and the punishment of the working class while promoting lawlessness, and an invasion from the south. A virtual insurrection against American culture and values.
New York state is no different.
"beautiful state, and 45% of the folks are great, its just the urban centers that are ignorant"
You're right on Barry, I grew up there, unfortunately it's that 55% who keeps spoiling it for everyone else...
I live in what’s considered rural for California (Visalia, town of 135,000). Intense agricultural. More cows in my county than people. Tulare is is the next town over and hosts the World Ag Expo every year. We are right between Fresno and Bakersfield.
Real Estate prices here have shot up as well. Homes are on the market for less than a week and go for 20,000 over list. I think there are many reasons for this increase. 1. Very low inventory 2. Very low interest rates 3. People leaving cities to work remote. 4. Money printer go bbrrrrr.
I know a lot of people that have left for Idaho, some to Texas, one to Tennessee. If you try to rent a U-Haul trailer one way to Idaho, it’s $1000. Idaho to California $299. At least it was a couple years ago.
Seems like a lot of factors coming together to create this big game of musical chairs.
Btw, if you use the Washington Post as a source, you lose all credibility with me.
Speaking of Cali.....I am a Bruce Jenner fan from his Olympic days. He (Caitlyn for the Wokees) will be on Hannity tonight. He of course is running for Cali governor. This will be a good interview to watch IMO. The wokees are ripping him apart because he is a Repub and against bio trans boys competing in bio girls sports....which I happen to agree with him on.
Real estate prices have shot up everywhere. I just sold a commercial building I bought 2 years ago for 185k and I paid 110k for it. It's old, I would've taken 130 if he would've offered that.
All my rentals appraised value has gone up at least 15% in the last year. And they're not in an area that historically appreciates really well.
"LOL, Matt, I see you're from CA. Are you insulted that somebody pointed out that people aren't loving it so much anymore or what?"
Not in the least, just lamenting the new world we live in where people take "untruths" they find on the internet which support their world view, take them at face value rather than spending the 30 seconds to validate whether they are true, then happily toss their credibility to the wind by posting it on a public forum. In my circle, friends and colleagues want the truth and (in my mind, rightfully) call people out for that sort of thing. It is disconcerting to see how many Bowsiters celebrate the lies.
Matt did you listen to the clip and do 30 seconds of research? I took 30 seconds and found out in 2019 between 653,000 and 700,000 people moved out and around 480,000 moved in. The numbers from the article JL posted above were pretty close with 691,321 moving out and in the video clip they mentioned about 500,000 moving in. The only reason California has a net positive population growth is because new births are making up the difference.
On the opposite end of the spectrum we just bought 27.01 acres for 24,000$. It connected on to one end our family place. A no brained for sure. No structured. All wooded. Has a really nice saddle where a few ridges come together. Can’t wait to hang a stand there.
As someone pointed out....maybe the illegals are adding to any growth in Cali and are not being removed from the gross total??
"It is disconcerting to see how many Bowsiters celebrate the lies."
Only one in this thread :)
It is amazing how many Bowsiters actually voted for an anti sportsman, anti hunting administration.
Lots of blue staters have been moving to FL for decades. A lot of them now are buying places sight unseen. Look up the Villages, took a beautiful piece of FL and turned it into a retirement home almost 6 sq miles gone. Not to mention it’s now the std capital of FL. You use to only deal with them from thanksgiving to maybe Easter. Now they never leave
These shirts and bumper stickers are becoming popular......
It surprising the numbers of folks leaving in and around the NY City/NJ area and moving to the eastern half of Pa. These folks are buying places with in 1 hour of the Pa, Ny, NJ border. They are commuting each day back to NY City area for work. Theres is a very good roads system running from eastern pa to NY area. Theres busing Companies that are running each day from Scranton to NY City to take people to work. Their now talking about running an amtrak train from Scranton to Ny City for commuters. NUTS!
If the new tax proposals go through land prices will blow through the roof. It’s one of the few investments that won’t be affected.
what are all the new tax proposals and why will that make land go higher
Jackson Hole, Wyoming is good example of Californication. Same reverse Grapes of Wrath occurring in Texas.
Teeton, I know a few people around here that commute into Boston every day, 75-80 miles or so each way. Still cheaper to find land and build on.
Under Biden’s proposal capital gains and the step up will be affected. So people with more than $1 million in value won’t want to sell driving up prices. Secondly the people that are holding will hold longer diminishing the supply. people inheriting may have to sell because they are losing the step up and are faced with a higher death tax because the amount that can be sheltered by the estate will drop to about 1/2 of the current $11.5 million. “For example, say a farmer purchased 160 acres in 1984 for $1,500 per acre for a total of $240,000. The farm was inherited by family members in 2021 after the farmer died. The value of the land at the time of death was $8,000 per acre, or a total of $1,280,000. Normally, the stepped-up basis will change to $8,000 per acre at the time of death; and if the farm was sold five years later and valued at $8,500 per acre, a capital gains tax would be assessed on the additional $500 per acre. President Biden’s proposal would eliminate the stepped-up basis at the time of death, and when the property is sold, the capital gains tax would be assessed on the entire amount — the difference between $8,500 and $1,500 — at a rate of 39.6%. “The total amount of tax would be $443,520.”
Long term real estate will be a great investment vs the stock market for wealthy investors.
What we are witnessing is Reparations in real time. The Biden proposals will hit the landowners hard, force liquidation of assets after a family death, just for taxes...and then the monies are given to the interests groups that power the leftist political machine.
I call it extortion.
If 3 Italian dudes did the same thing that congress is doing, they would be up on RICO charges...
I remember 1979, was home on leave when dad’s banker came out to the farm. Tried to talk him into a “new loan” for a new tractor or combine. The old interest rate was around 2%, the new loan for the farm was over 12. Thought dad was going to shoot the guy.
Remember all the farms that failed in the 80’s and 90’s?
