Contributors to this thread:
Help with an experiment
I am hoping to get some help with an experiment that mirrors one I have been reading about. This has to do with something called the "wisdom of crowds" and I can promise it is related to hunting, but is not political in any way......I am going to post a picture of a bull I recently found and ask for guesses on score. This has of course been done many times here on Bowsite, but the difference here is that I want to take an average of estimates that are made without knowing what anyone else has guessed. The only way I know to do this is to have everyone send me their estimate in a PM. When I have a pretty large sample I'm going to determine the average and we'll see how close it comes to the actual score. The theory is that when people know what others have guessed it influences their thinking and the the results are generally less accurate than when without knowledge of other's estimates. I'm hoping it will be a fun twist on a guess the score thread and maybe provide some insight into a theory I find interesting. When this is finished I intend to do another one where everyone can see the previous guesses and then compare the results.....REMEMBER, PM's ONLY!!!
This is how COVID started…. :-)
PLEASE SEND SCORE ESTIMATES BY PM ONLY
PLEASE SEND SCORE ESTIMATES BY PM ONLY
Here is the picture of the bull I found while shed hunting. Feel free to ask questions or comment on the picture, but please only send score estimates by PM. Otherwise the experiment will be invalid. Thanks to anyone who participates and hopefully it will be interesting.
I'm talking gross score here.
Is this the only pic you will be posting for us to give our guess on?
t-roy...I've thought about that a bit and I think for the experiment it will be more interesting with just one shot. I know it's harder to be accurate, but I think this will be the closest I can come to duplicating the experiments I've been reading about.
Pretty sure that's not a Private Message Jingalls. I'd really appreciate it if you removed your guess before a lot of people see it. I have seen it and will include it in my calculations, but the idea is that no one else knows what others are guessing.
Thanks Jingalls, I'll post the results when I have what I feel is a large enough sample to be statistically meaningful.
Wish I had a couple different angles! Hell of a nice bull!
Treeline, I will post another picture or two when I post the results. I know it's difficult when you only have one angle, but I think for the purpose of this theory it's more valid this way.
I also want to point out that the left side has a 6 that you can't really see. It's approx. the same as the other side without the 7th. Not trying to fool anyone, just wanting to go on initial impression without other's opinions
If were to PM you my guess and I guessed 894 5/8” that would really raise the average.
Please explain why one angle would be more valid than posting multiple pictures? Judging elk is tough enough, let alone just a skull without the rest of the body to compare! At least give a link to experiments you are comparing to?
Also will known outliers be discarded? Like the 900” guess? Or 50”?
Wildwilderness. Good questions. I know it's harder to judge with just one picture and I'm not entirely sure if it will make my test any more valid. However at this point a number of people have already entered estimates and I want the information to remain consistent, so I'm going to keep it the same for everyone. Maybe I should have posted more pics, but the main objective is not to see who can be the most accurate(although I will announce who comes closest), but to see the spread and how close the average comes to the actual score without anyone being influenced by other people's guesses. I will discard any obvious outliers like the numbers you suggested. I am reading a book called "On Trails" by Robert Moor and he is discussing group intelligence. He cites an experiment done in 1906 by a British scientist named Francis Galton. He collected data from around 800 people at a county fair who tried to guess the weight of a fat ox. Most were pretty far off the mark, but the average was very close to the actual. The experiment has been repeated in various forms many times and surprisingly( to me ) researchers learned that when people had access to one another's answers the collective intelligence of the group worsened. I was reminded of a bunch of threads I've seen on here where people made guesses on score and everyone had access the previous information. I thought it would be fun to try one with out allowing people to know what others had said. I'm not a scientist and it's probably flawed, but I'm interested to see how it comes out. I'd like to do a second round in the usual way and compare the two.
You asked for a score, but just to confirm....is that what you want or did you mean gross inches? I know most people like to hear a larger number so they usually don’t talk score, but rather gross inches.
Stick, I should have clarified. I am asking for gross.
I think it’s a good idea . When it’s all done it would be nice to see the data, in order as you received it.
What sample size are you looking for? Are you calculating the average every time you get a new guess? Would be interesting to see if the average gets closer to the true answer as your sample size increases. Could give an idea of minimum sample size.
Wild, I will be happy to share the data when it's finished. I would like to get as many guesses as possible so I'll probably let it ride as long as there seems to be interest. I am recording it in the order I'm receiving and I am expecting that the average will get closer as the sample size increases. I am not calculating every time I get a guess as I don't have that much time, but so far I think the average is pretty close. Thanks for your interest.
I think it would have been a more accurate test if you did not tell us in advance what you were planning to do. Now, when you repost the photo and show the guesses as they occur, many will stick with their PM'd score, whereas many may have done exactly as you speculated and may have changed their score once they saw the guesses of others. By telling us in advance, I think people are now going to be far more likely to stick to their original guess, so I think you've already introduced bias to the study.
Stick.... thanks for your comments and I see what you are saying, but I think you misunderstood what I was proposing. I wasn't intending on using the same elk in a second test although that may have been interesting, and you're right, by tipping my hand it would probably would have created a bias....I was thinking about eventually doing another traditional "guess the score" thread with a different animal and encouraging people to use whatever information is at their disposal to make guesses. It probably would have been better to leave everyone in the dark about the whole thing, but a couple people have asked about the process and what research I had looked at. I am mainly interested the first test and want to encourage as many people as possible to make a guess so I gave out that info. I don't think this will affect the results of this test as everyone must still make their estimate based on their own observations. I have 33 guesses so far and would like to encourage as many people as are willing to take a stab at this. This is mostly just a fun exercise, but as with any statistical analysis, a larger amount of data tends to produce more reliable findings. So please, if you are reading this, Make a guess!
some people... Fun game Jim. Nice to change it up a bit.
Dang Brun, your fast. That was up for just a min as I realized I didn’t send it PM!-)
You’re not gonna drag the results out like all the state drawings, are you??…..
Piggybacking on t-roy's question…If we get it wrong how long until we get our refund back?
I’m just wondering what the prize is for closest guess ;)
"I’m just wondering what the prize is for closest guess ;)"
I'm under the impression this is a group 'think-tank' type thing rather than an individual 'closest guess' situation. Therefore, I find it fitting that the prize be shared by all! SO,... Brun be buyin' beers for ALL the Bowsite boys????
I think the winner should get the Wyoming commissioner's tag, but since I can't even draw a general up there I can't help.
Cool idea. Looking forward to the results.
Lol I’m good with that 70lb.!
I measured this bull myself. I am not an OM, but I have measured several while being instructed by an OM so I'm confident my number is very close. I may be off an eight here or there, but for this purpose I feel it's more than adequate.
Last one of these I posted, with multiple photos from different angles, drew a 60" range of estimates, but the true gross score was pretty close to the overall average.