Experiment results
General Topic
Contributors to this thread:
Brun 22-May-21
JohnMC 22-May-21
Brun 22-May-21
Old School 22-May-21
Norseman 22-May-21
badbull 22-May-21
Bou'bound 22-May-21
JohnMC 22-May-21
Brun 22-May-21
IdyllwildArcher 22-May-21
WV Mountaineer 22-May-21
Brun 22-May-21
Brun 22-May-21
JL 22-May-21
Pete-pec 22-May-21
Brun 22-May-21
nowheels 22-May-21
jingalls 22-May-21
Jaquomo 23-May-21
Jaquomo 23-May-21
Pete-pec 23-May-21
Hancock West 23-May-21
Jaquomo 23-May-21
Bou'bound 23-May-21
Treeline 23-May-21
SBH 23-May-21
Inshart 23-May-21
BOWUNTR 23-May-21
JL 23-May-21
Pete-pec 23-May-21
Bou'bound 23-May-21
WYelkhunter 23-May-21
WV Mountaineer 23-May-21
Old School 23-May-21
ElkNut1 23-May-21
From: Brun
22-May-21
Thanks to everyone who made an estimate in the bull scoring "Wisdom of Crowds" experiment. We had a total of 66 guesses and the winner of the prize (if there was one) for closest estimate goes to badbull who entered 362". My wife wants the prize to be the rack itself, but sorry it's not happening. Not only was badbull the closest, he hit the mark dead on to the eighth as 362 was the exact measurement I came up with. Nowheels was next at 362 5/8 and Altitude Sick and Rocky D were both at 363. The results of the overall group intelligence study were pretty consistent with what I had read in other examples. Despite a huge discrepancy between some individual guesses (a low of 296 5/8 to a high of 405) the overall average was 364 2/8, a mere 2 2/8 off. Pretty remarkable in my opinion, especially since I only posted 1 photo. I guess this proves that if you hunt with 65 of your closest friends you will have an extremely accurate field guess. That probably won't happen....unless you hunt with Mossback. I hope everyone enjoyed this little exercise. I remember one person was interested to know if the average got closer to the mark as more guesses were made. It didn't really happen in this case as it was pretty close from the get go. I think that makes sense when you realize that there was was no outside information available to move the results in any direction. I would have liked to get a larger sample, but the rate of guesses was dwindling and I'm going to be off the grid for a few days starting tomorrow. Figured I better post this before everyone forgot about it. Thanks, Brun

From: JohnMC
22-May-21
What was the median?

22-May-21
I think this was a fun unique way to do it. Thanks Brun. And thanks for making it a quick study

From: Brun
22-May-21
The median was 365.

From: Old School
22-May-21
Thanks for the post - I enjoyed it.

From: Norseman
22-May-21
What was the mode?

From: badbull
22-May-21
Brun, I just feel humbled on a lucky guess with some true experts in the game. Congrats on that great find and fun game....... Badbull

From: Bou'bound
22-May-21
Do you think the standard deviation would have been different with another angle of the rack showing. Be interesting to evaluate how angle relates to accuracy.

From: JohnMC
22-May-21
I was just curious if more guys guessed high or low was why asked about median.

From: Brun
22-May-21
More guys guessed high, but a few of the lows were way off. Many of the close guesses were just a little high.

22-May-21
I guessed low. It was tough not being able to see the left antler better as it looked like it was busted off so I dropped my estimate because of that.

22-May-21
I guessed 365. A little high.

From: Brun
22-May-21
I have another picture where you can see the left top end. I meant to use that pic and didn't realize I had posted the wrong one until after a bunch of people had guessed. I didn't want to change it at that point so it probably messed up a few people. I wasn't trying to fool people, just made a mistake. It's a normal 6 about the same as the other side except no 7th. WV, you were only 3 inches off. That's pretty darn close!

From: Brun
22-May-21
Norseman, the mode was 358. It appeared 5 times.

From: JL
22-May-21
An interesting study....

Do another with public responses and see how much group think is involved.

From: Pete-pec
22-May-21
I want to measure you and your hands, then ultimately the antlers lol. I'm a big dude. Like no one compares to my size, so whenever I make a guess like this, I imagine my body, and my stature, and my hands holding it. I always go lighter, because everyone I know is like these tiny little people I'm unfamiliar with lol. My brother is, and my dad was of goliath size, so I always felt like everyone should be this size lol. Good thing they don't, because they don't make enough food to feed monsters like us......7 billion strong.

From: Brun
22-May-21
JL, I'm planning on doing that. It's probably going to be a few weeks as I have some off grid trips coming up, but I will get to it.

Pete-pec, I'm an average sized guy. about 5'10" 170lbs.

From: nowheels
22-May-21
Dang, 5/8” off. Did I guess before badbull so that maybe I was at least in the lead for an hour or so? :-)

From: jingalls
22-May-21
I was with you Idy. I thought it was busted and was off 30”.

From: Jaquomo
23-May-21
I'm a lot like Pete-Pec. My animals and fish always appear to be much smaller because I am such a monstrous specimen.

From: Jaquomo
23-May-21
During my brief career as an adult film star, my equipment was often perceived as smaller than average (for film performers) due to my sheer physical bulk. But those of you who have seen the xrays know..

From: Pete-pec
23-May-21
Jaquomo, preach it brother! :-)

From: Hancock West
23-May-21
Thats was funny jaquomo. I was close @ 358

From: Jaquomo
23-May-21
I guessed 367. I overestimated the length of the part not visible in the photo.

From: Bou'bound
23-May-21
Any demographic breakdown by state where guys used to seeing elk did better

From: Treeline
23-May-21
I was high as well. Guessed within an inch of Jaq. With a couple more pictures, would bet the SD and final would be much tighter.

From: SBH
23-May-21
Cool idea Brun. I wondered that myself sometimes on previous threads. I didn't get in on this one but interesting to see the results. Bowsiters are pretty good at screen shot scoring it would appear.

From: Inshart
23-May-21
Pete, not sure how many years you've been on here but Lou's (er.. "Junk King's") growth genes went --- "NOT" into his height. :)

From: BOWUNTR
23-May-21
I may have missed it... but was it officially and accurately scored by a trained and experienced measurer? If it wasn't, the 362 is just a number... and could be way off... just like the guesses. Ed F

From: JL
23-May-21

JL's embedded Photo
JL's embedded Photo
Jaqs wardrobe during his "brief" stint in the movies.....now enshrined in the Academy Awards HOF. :-) (Sorry....this was low hanging fruit)

From: Pete-pec
23-May-21
Inshart, I gathered his sarcasm lol. I'm pretty fluent in the art of yanking someone's chain.

From: Bou'bound
23-May-21
Any demographic breakdown by state where guys used to seeing elk did better

From: WYelkhunter
23-May-21
i guessed way high. I think the pic fooled me on beam length and width

23-May-21
I don’t see elk very often. When I do, I don’t stop to absorb what one looks like. Cause I’m too busy tryin’ to kill it.:^)

But, I’ve been around a bunch of dead ones for an eastern boy. Plus, my papaw killed a big’un when I was a baby. I know the score on it. And, it helps put these kind of bulls into perspective.

However, I’m betting if I ever saw one in that league while hunting, I’d guess him at 400. :^)

From: Old School
23-May-21
You could’ve shown me 4 more angles and it would’ve have mattered to me - I didn’t have a tape measure and calculator for my calculations. I’m a novice and could have just as easily been off by 30”. I guessed 365 and it just happened to be close.

From: ElkNut1
23-May-21
Yes, those close ups get me every time! (grin) The bull appears larger than life & appears to score better than a regular distant photo. I guessed 380 but apparently his tine length didn't match his actual size. Duped again! (grin)

ElkNut

  • Sitka Gear