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Lumber and Panel Pricing Update
Just a quick update. Lumber is still falling but narrows are very close to a bottom. Railcars of western spruce 2x4 can be bought for mid to upper 400's per M.......$2.40-2.60 for a 2x4-8. This price does not include shipping or the 4-6 weeks it takes for railcars to show up. Wide widths having been falling the hardest with a bottom within sight. We are almost back to pre pandemic levels it just might take a little longer for the retail side to show these low prices.
CDX plywood has been very aggressive with pricing the last two weeks. 5/8" CDX can be bought for less than $30 per sheet for straight truck loads and they are shipping prompt. OSB is dropping but not nearly at the rate of CDX. Guys are switching to CDX which will put more pressure on the OSB mills to seriously cut pricing soon. Look for much lower pricing soon at your local yards.
There are still many building materials rising. Any made from steel, aluminum, copper, asphalt and vinyl are hard to source and price increases are very frequent.
What kind of mark up are you expecting for framing lumber? In other words, do you have a general idea of what that 2x4x8 is going to be sold for in the stores at these prices. Because we are still at $7 for a 2x4x8 here in southern WV. Thats spruce, Doug fir, and yellow pine. With only a .20 spread across all three species.
19/32 cdx plywood here is $72/sheet plus tax. Not to many going to be switching to that when $62 plus tax is buying the equivalent in OSB.
I realize sellers are trying to not loose in a falling market. But, we aren’t seeing anything remotely akin to what you are paying now. And, I’m not sure we will with anything except framing limber.
Most retailers shoot for 15-18% margin. 18%-22% mark up.
I'm seeing competing quotes right now with 50% disparity from retailers and box stores. The independent yards are typically being much more aggressive in unloading high priced inventory. The box stores are loaded with high priced inventory and holding their prices very high.
Buy a wood mizer bandsaw mill like i did, cuts out that retailer....
That's fine till you need grade stamps on your lumber or go through inspections.
Thanks for keeping us updated, Brett!
I echo t-Roy. These updates are much appreciated.
Much appreciate the insider update Brett. Was gonna extend the covered patio on the house but waiting for the prices to come back down to "normal", whatever that's going to be. What's your forecast for back to normal ?
Thanks for the update.
We are about 4 weeks out of purchasing our lumber package. With the price shift is there a smart way to shop the lumber package to ensure that we are getting the best price?
Is it common to split the package up and take delivery of the first half ( or first story) to catch the falling price ?? Thanks !
Just guessing retail will bottom out in 4 weeks. Not sure what or if there will be a rebound but I do think prices could rise again into the fall. I would start shopping a framing package in the next 2-4 weeks and maybe do the panels a couple weeks after that, if it works for your timing. Feel free to PM me if you want any advice.
If anyone will be needing engineered lumber, LVL, I joist, Paralam, etc, plan far ahead. Still very tough items to get.
^^^^This^^^^. Plus finish material, drywall aside, is getting VERY tough to find. With 8-10 week lead time on ordered material.
Material availability is hurting contractors loads more then the cost of lumber.
Thanks for the info, that is always of interest and I hope things continue to trend down. FWIW, I tried to buy some LP Smart Siding a couple of weeks ago to re-do the south side of my old shop and I could not find it in stock anywhere and two different suppliers said that they cannot get it at all...for now. Crickets!
I am a mechanical contractor and we are still seeing rising prices...particularly copper, PVC and some chemicals, like glycol and some refrigerants. FYI.
We were planning to build a garage this year, but postponed things because of the crazy prices. Hopefully, with help of course, we can still get it started in time to finish before the snow (October/November).
Doing a building now and in Massachusetts metal studs have been on order going on 16 weeks!!!
I needed a few 2x4x10&12's. The 10's were $16.99 and the 12's were $18.99. That was at our small town local lumber yard. I about fell over
I would find a high volume independent owner yard to buy from. As Brett said they will be dumping all Covid inventory. Most likely already have or are still in the process of dumping it for what they paid.
Then they will switch to the newer, lower price sooner than the big box stores.
Yes WV is correct. On my site alone, which is steel construction, sheetrock, drywall mud, insulation, treated lumber, roofing materials, copper piping, pvc and many building materials are turning into long lead items. MEP components like RTU’s, air handlers, emergency generators as an example are now extra super long lead items. Another thing I’m seeing are vendors telling our subs “yea we'll have that to ya in a month” and it turns into another month, and then another after that. For contractors, the goal is to finish on time, and under budget. Forget about budget. That’s out the window with rising prices and long lead times. Not to mention the labor issues. “Pay em to stay at home.” There’s some real incentive for ya......
We are turning into Russia....everything is on allocation and you can only purchase limited supplies. Suppliers won`t tell you it`s being "allocated" but they are doing it by limiting your purchases. I long for our America of old.
That’s great information and good news. I appreciate the update. I’ve been holding off on any jobs hearing that prices are coming down but the way goids and services has been I didn’t expect to see much improvement on the retail end until spring. I hoped the demand for treated would drop in the winter so that might improve sooner. Keep us posted please!
Agreed Brett, fortunately 70 % of my builds are hunting cabins, off grid,guest cabins, or outbuildings that need no inspection. I just had 2 quotes for 26 ft TJI s in north Wyoming that coud be delivered in 4 weeks, hopefully the delivery timeframe shrinks. But its workable,.
Graded inspected framing lumber is just another form of government control. The entire country was built with rough cut, and there are many buildings still standing over 100 years .
I built my home entirely out of rough cut softwood lumber that I had S4S. (Spruce& hemlock) My home will still be standing after many of these new homes built with tooth pick sized, inspected , red rot balsam fir lumber from Quebec have fallen down.
The Amish community doesn’t seem to need graded ,inspected lumber . In my area their sawmills are selling rough cut like there’s no tomorrow .
"Graded inspected framing lumber is just another form of government control. The entire country was built with rough cut, and there are many buildings still standing over 100 years."
There's a building in Florida that didnt stand so well.... even after being inspected
My wife ordered windows for a small motel being built in Our town, delivery mid November. 16-20 week lead times for custom windows right now. Lots of pissed off contractors around.
Cash flow problems are created for contractors when jobs can’t be completed due to not being able to get the material for months and months. A lot of Homeowners get mad when you pull off to go work on someone else’s project even though you can’t finish theirs due to material shortages.
It’s a tough road to haul down for any contractor. Much tougher then high material costs that a high housing market cancels out.
Not good in north east. Lumber has come down a little, 2x4x8' was $13 now $11. 13 week lead time for windows, month and a half for a front door.
I needed custom windows for my Ohio house renovation in June. Lumber dealer quoted me a month for 2 silver line windows. They were delivered in 10 days. Couldn’t believe it, and very happy since I finished my siding project.
Rough cut lumber is useless to build anything with any quality to it unless it is ran through a kiln or you have a good while to stack it out and dry it.
ROTFLMAO, all lumber starts out as rough cut. How hard is it to plan ahead and sticker lumber and air dry it ? I helped demolish a “quality,”3 story building that had a store , restaurant, and several apartments. It had been partially damaged by a fire. It was built in 1848.
The top carrying beam was a hand hewed Hemlock timber 50’ long, and the floor joist and rafters were all rough cut spruce 3x12’s. All were as sound as the day they were installed.
I'm quite aware of how it starts out as I've touched more lumber than most 1000x over. Apparently it's pretty hard to plan ahead that much because everyone wants to use it when they have to pay for retail lumber but nobody wants to wait for it to dry. It has nothing to do with them being sound 175 yrs later. Lol
If the fed denies inflation just tell them it’s so high it’s being discussed on a hunting forum.
Not necessarily, I’ve been milling planks from beetle killed trees and there is absolutely no moisture in the wood at all. I’ve left the planks out in the sun and they won’t warp one bit
Is that some kind of jig you made for the chainsaw to mill the logs?
^^^ Yes. It’s called an Alaskan mill. I made it. I can change the depth by using different spacers to get the size of lumber I want
Now yes that would be an exception Brad. Awesome material to have access to!
In Princeton WV, 7/16 OSB dropped from $44 and change to $37 and change. Over night
Steel is like this right now too. Sheet of 1/8" 600 bucks.
FYI...I just received word that southern yellow pine has dropped, at retail here in SE Iowa, about 57% from just one month ago. So a ray of good news there...let's keep the price declines coming!
We buy a lot of lumber. Its went down 57% but it was up 316% from 2years ago. Hopefully it keeps tumbling but i was told it was just a head fake and that price is here to stay until at least fall. Hope i'm wrong.
1/2” OSB has dropped to $34 here. Still has a long ways to go but nice to see it off it’s high of $55.
Comparing % rise to % drop can be deceiving.
For instance, if a $10 item goes up 316% it then costs $31.60 If it then goes down 57% it then costs $13.59
We're still paying out the Azz over here. I think our lumber yards overstocked on the overpriced lumber and it will be a while before that inventory is used up. Bad gamble. Not enough competition over here to have other options so we buy what they have and pay what they charge.
Purchased a 2 X 8 (8ft) to build a new target yesterday. $19.50
Right now, in NW Ontario, the logging has been totally shut down to extreme forest fire hazard. All loggers have been laid off. Will be shut for 3 weeks this Friday. Sawmills are about to run out of saw logs. Prices will be going up.
Lumber prices at the mill have hit a bottom. 2x4 and 2x6 bounced up 3-6% already but don't expect a run away on pricing. OSB and CDX have a little bit to go yet but should bottom out in 1-2 weeks at the mill level and will see serious correction in retail pricing soon. Large blocks of 7/16 OSB being sold now for $15-16 per sheet with 2-3 week ship times.
What’s the current state of affairs with treated lumber?
Menards add today: 2" x 4" x 8' pressure treated $3.95 after 11% rebate.
Pretty much all treated lumber is at or very close to the bottom.
Brett - Thank you for posting these updates.